Disciple: Mamata recently held a meet with over 100 Industrialists. The pro-Mamata Kolkata TV and StarAnanda TV project a bullish sentiment over this. But the industrialists do not seem to be very enthusiastic. Some think that Mamata seemed to be very rigid about not involving the State (Government) in either acquiring or setting the price of land for acquisition for Industries. The scenario seems to be unclear.
Chanakya: I also am not very clear about Mamata's industrial policy. But I do see a common thread in what she has been saying and doing. I find that thread clear and unambigous. But I do appreciate the failure of industrialists to make out what Mamata's industrial policy is. The scenario is unclear because Mamata’s industrial policy is not yet fully ready and documented. She is still in the process of gathering adequate information that is needed on surplus lands available in closed and sick units, in industrial estates/ parks where the government has already acquired large tracts of land and information on land utilization maps as of now and potential of different districts. She is not going to formulate a clear cut industrial policy until she is armed with adequate information.
Disciple: Then, why did she meet industrialists prematurely? Why create confusion in the minds of industrial investors?
Chanakya: She did not meet prematurely. She wanted them to get disappointed, go back to their offices and think in an open mind what is that Mamata trying to tell them. Mamata’s industrial policy is unclear to the industrialists because industrialists’ mindsets are still tied to the industrial policy of the communist government of West Bengal.
Disciple: What do you mean? Did Mamata say anything significant on the government’s industrial policy? Some industrialists say that she had after a few minutes lost interest in the deliberations at the Meet and busy engaged in SMSs. She only had asked industrialists to speak out on their problems, their ideas and suggestions. But she was not giving out what she had in her mind on a new industrial policy for West Bengal.
Chanakya: The industrialist will need to reflect and apply their minds to realize the radical change in industrial policy that she has formulated for West Bengal. That is why she said that she would meet the industrialists again after six months by which time she expects the industrialists to have a direct and live exposure to the implementation of West Bengal’s new industrial policy through the industry representatives on the Core Group that has been described by her as the cabinet for implementing the industrial policy of West Bengal. Don’t you think that this point to a radical change in industrial policy in West Bengal?
Disciple: No, I am unable to understand what you are saying?
Chanakya: I appreciate. You are so used to the traditional concept of industrial policy in India that like the industrialists you fail to get essence of Mamata’s industrial policy. So, let me try it a different way. Mamata is showing that giving sops (incentives/ tax relief/ signing special package deals with industrial houses is not an important part of her government’s industrial policy. That was CPM’s policy and not her government’s. Can you see this now?
Disciple: Yes, I understand this point now. But what else is the change?
Chanakya: She says acquiring land for industries is not part of her industrial policy. Acquiring land is the job of the industrialists who wants to invest.
Disciple: But if industrialists want to purchase large tracts of land, the farmers will demand unreasonably high prices? That is bad.
Chanakya: Her answer is that the industrialist should purchase lands of that size from the owners of the land at such prices as make their investments in industries worthwhile. Yes, there may be many small farmers, but industrialists can list their offer prices in the market and see how farmers respond. If all things that the industrialists buy are to be at market prices and to be procured in the market, why should land be acquired outside the market place at some government fixed price. In any case, cost of land is a small percentage of the project cost currently and it is not necessary that it should be so without reference to the prices determined in the market.
Yes, market intermediaries may develop and try to take a margin by buying from farmers at a lower price and selling at a higher price to industrialists. But Mamata would reply that government would not discourage as many land intermediaries in the market making of land so that the industrialists face a competitive land market and if their demand for land is low at high prices, the intermediaries will lose and not the industrialist buyer. Yes, intermediaries may try to coerce farmers into selling land and turn land mafias. But Mamata would reply if the Government is not coercing, how it can allow such coercion and manipulation. She has said that she has already set appropriate police machinery in operation to make the business of coal mafia increasingly difficult. She is committed to nip in the bud all land mafia-ism.
Disciple: With such a policy, industrialists will go away to other states adversely affecting West Bengal’s industrialization.
Chankya: Mamata would reply that it is for other States to find out how they would continue with their different industrial policy when West Bengal’s farmers enjoy the freedom to sale land in the market. And, till such time the other States attract industries in the manner they do, let industrialists find out the economics of location and decide where to locate industries. Market mechanism will ultimately come into play.
Disciple: That means Mamata’s Government will not attract industries with sops and incentives. Then, the prospects of industries will be bleak in West Bengal!
Chanakya: What has been the performance of industrial incentives and sops in West Bengal’s industrial maps in the last 10 years? Hardly any large industrial investment has resulted in further industrial investment in downstream and ancillaries. The Nano project of the Tatas would have contributed how much to indistrialisation of West Bengal even if had come up at great cost to the West Bengal’s farm economy? How much of acquired land has gone for residential houses and offices and how much industries have used? We do not really have any data on the past to guide about the future. Will a few large chemical and automobile projects lead to industrial regeneration of West Bengal? We have no rigorous analysis to settle on the issue except verbose subjective arguments on both sides. This is silly.
Disciple: I understand what you are saying? Mere subjective opinions and ideologies do not make a policy. That may be true of the past communist regime that delivered nothing great on industrialization except touting that the Tata Nano project would have been great- an assertion of belief rather than scientific analytical support. But what about the future? Trinamool’s industrial land policy is going to stop further industrialization in the State.
Chankya: Is that really so? Does West Bengal really need big industrial projects at any cost? Does West Bengal need rapid industrialization in any case? How many big industrial projects would really come up in West Bengal? Who are going to invest? Nothing is known adequately. There is no concrete proposal from industrialists. Mamata knows clearly that industrialization can be force or attracted with incentives and State policy. It depends on what the climate of investment in West Bengal.
Disciple: I understand what you are saying and agree with you, but what then is the Trinamool Government going to do sit idle.
Chanakya: No, it isn’t sitting idle. It is collecting information and will be soon ready to offer land to industries from its own Land Bank. Industrialists then can find out if those lands suit their needs and offer to lease out. Government has made it clear that the can activate the Central public sector to invest of those lands suit them. If the private sector finds it worthwhile they can bid for leasing land from the State’s Land Bank. The government is still proactive to help industries get land but not a beggar of industrial investment by one or two large investors.
Disciple: But large investors need large area of land?
Chanakya: Let them propose projects to the Government and indicate how much land they require? West Bengal will chose those which produce the largest GDP and/ or employment per unit of land after taking into account the linkages effects. That is what market efficiency is all about rather than patronizing a particular set of industrialist the government happens to know. Land has to be attracted to the best possible use in terms of Value addition and employment generation through the market mechanism and not by the administrative fiat of the State. So let the industry find out what makes sense to them. They are going to meet every 15 days with the government officials.
Disciple: You are referring to the Core Committee for industries set up by Mamata?
Chanakya: Yes, the Government is allowing the industrialists to formulate and implement industrial policies and projects with full cooperation of the State administration. This is a remarkable change: no more begging with the State ministers and bureaucrats.
Disciple: I agree this is a remarkable change. The role of the State is getting redefined. It is no longer a beggar and favour distributor at the same time. It is going to say whether it can solve industries problems or not right away, it is going to ensuring single window clearance not on paper but make WBIDC do all the leg work to provide single window clearance. It is going to ensure that the State’s promises and incentives are met as per time agreed time schedule. The State’s top administrators going to function as a facilitator with efficiency and speed rather than leave the industrialists at the mercy of the low level bureaucrats and their red-tape and the finance ministry’s ability to disburse funds as committed. This is industrial policy working at the ground level rather than remaining paper rhetoric of ministerial press statements and lectures that mean very little to industrialists. A number of industrialist asked if the State cannot arrange large tracts of land, how industrialists can get attracted to West Bengal.
Chanakya: The reality is that most industrialists have no concrete plan or project that they would like to locate in West Bengal on grounds of economic viability and commercial attractiveness. If they did, they could now approach the Core Committee or the Industries Minister for expeditious clearance of all administrative and infrastructure hurdles. Manmata’s industrial policy promises to come out with what assistance they can provide in getting the industrial projects off the shelves to the ground for implementation. That is the new industrial policy that is implementable and not theoretical schemes of the planning commission of yester years.
Disciple: I realize now what you are saying. But Indian Industrialists will take little time to understand the change in industrial policy and see the opportunities for investment with Government assistance.
Chankya: I hope so. Habits die hard: it may take time for them to realize the Change and the opportunity it throws up. Mamata is going to invite them again after six months to find out if the industrialists are able to see the merit of the Change in industrial policy as well as industrial policy-making and implementation. She has already indicated the preferred sectors of the Government: health care business, tourism and hospitality, food processing, education. She has also indicated the negative list: no incentive for development for real estate business or promoter raj. And, she has promised: no state sponsored bandhs and violent trade unionism. All democratic rights are subject to the limit of non-interference with production and economic business activities. I am not so certain that she will be able to keep this commitment. But this is another important aspect of change in industrial policy. She will not allow unrest and agitation that directly stops production or project implementation. The days of hapta-giri and dada-giri of trade unions and political leaders over industrial and economic activities are likely to get over in West Bengal’s industrial policy for five years at least – not because Mamata wants it that way but the electorate wanted the Government to function that way.
Disciples: This is the most market-mechanism consistent State industrial policy in India. Only those industrialists who are market competitive can hope to benefit from locating industries in West Bengal. Others need not waste their time and energy in their current competition to build up relations with new ministers and old bureaucrats. If they change, the industrial policy change will have an effect on West Bengal’s industrialization. Otherwise, West Bengal’s industrial pace will be driven only by the public sector and agriculture.
Chankya: You are absolutely right. West Bengal’s industrial policy is radically different from the past. The industrialists need to change their mind-sets to find out the opportunities arising from the new administrative and political ideology environment. A final note of disclaimer: I do not claim to know what is in the mind of Mamata Bannerjee about Industrial Policy and what I have told you in this post is all my conjecture that I find consistent to myself. So, watch out for what Mamata does or says in the days to come.
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Bengal's Sprinting to Change #3: From Political Anarchy-led Bankruptcy in State Finances To Rigours of Restoring Bouyancy & Sustaniablity
Disciple: West Bengal’s State Finances are in a bankruptcy state. The Government has been earning much less than what it has been spending for years together under the communist rule, the deficits were being financed by loans and borrowings. Mamta’s Trinamool was voted to power. How will it now demonstrate a change in the state’s financial health?
Chanakya: Yes, the new Government had come to power knowing very well that the financial situation is indeed very grave. Yes, they can blame the indiscipline and incompetence of the erstwhile communist rulers. But that does not lead the State to the promised change.
Disciple: But this is the most important and crucial area of Change if other changes are to sustain.
Chanakya: You are right. This is the Key Challenge to Change West Bengal. And, in this area the Bengalis will not resist any change, nor can they contribute. So long as the Government does cut their pay and increase the tax rates on the majority of the people, Government can just work out solutions on its own.
Disciple: But where is the solution? The communists have repeatedly said that the Centre has been discriminating against West Bengal in allocating financial resources to West Bengal, while collecting taxes from the States which have very little power to mobilize resources through taxes. The State can only beg for assistance from the Central Government in the form of a bail-out package.
Chanakya: First, the communists’ are liars in general: without lies you can fool public. If being communist, West Bengal was attracting discrimination against the State by the Center; it was foolish on the part of the people of West Bengal to keep the communist rule continuously for 34 years. And, once they have removed the communists from power, the Central Govt. cannot discriminate any longer. Why did not the communists tell that Truth to the public that it is better not elect the communists to power because they will attract discrimination. Not all States are ruled by the parties in power at the Center. So, how has other States’ Finances are in much better State than that of West Bengal. The simple fact is that the communists are basically dullards who cannot manage public finances, besides being corrupt to the core so far as its adverse impact on the State’s financial health is concerned. Besides, for five years, the UPA-1 government ruled only because of the communists’ support. During that period, instead of getting more monies from the Center, they were busy allowing their non-Bengali English and Hindi speaking ideologues to brow beat the Central Government on issues connected with US-India arms deal and economic cooperation, etc. Such rhetoric cost the West Bengal citizen’s heavily: the communists MPs were elected from the State to first advance the interest of the State than for building image of the Central communist leaders like Prakash Karat, Sitaram Yechury, Brinda Karat, AK Bardhan and Gurudas Dasgupta, etc.
Disciple: I understand what you are saying. The Bengal’s communist MPs brought virtually nothing for West Bengal’s economy: in a federal state structure, elected representatives must know how to get the fair share from the Central pool. They did not know and were busy shaping India’s future with less than15% of the seats in the Lok Shabha. I do not understand how the so-called highly political conscious citizens of Bengal’s tolerated this foolishness for such a long period.
Disciple: Let’s forget the foolishness of Bengal voters in supporting brainless communists in the past. Now, the Trinamool must arrange a bailout package for West Bengal from the Central Government.
Chanakya: I am sure that the Mamata is much more intelligent than the best of Bengal communists’ and more sincerely committed to West Bengal’s interest than projecting herself as the back-seat driver of the UPA-2 government’s national policies or international policies. And, she is more competent and honest politician and administrator than any of the Bengali communists seen so far. She will negotiate a proper bail-out package. But she also knows that bail-out packages are only bail-out packages that give the bankrupt State some more time to avoid complete financial collapse. The short time available has to be used to radically change the way the State’s finances are managed.
Disciple: But is there any thing that the Government can do reduce expenditure and increase revenues when the common people are reeling under the impact of high inflation?
Chanakya: If you have brains, honesty and willingness, you can do many things.
Discipline: Ok. How will Mamata increase revenues? She is rather a populist politician who reduced the VAT on LPG cylinders to zero This will reduce tax revenues. There would be demand for reducing VAT on diesel, petrol, kerosene and so on.
Chanakya: Do not confuse between reducing the incidence of taxes to provide relief to households’ strained budgets and increasing tax revenues. She has just to close the communist created taps of leakages of revenues under its ideology of broad-based, distributed and inequity reducing communist corruption.
Disciple: What is that? Are tax leakages substantial?
Chanakya: I read articles and heard interviews of a Bengali economist to get an idea of this communist innovation of tax leakage system. According to him tax revenue collection of Uttar Pradesh is 7.8% of State GDP while that of West Bengal is barely 4.5 %. It is difficult to explain this wide difference without revenue leakages. If West Bengal’s percentage improves to just 7% by closing the taps of draining out tax revenues tax collections in West Bengal will increase by 67% in absolute terms. Thus, the tax leakages, if stopped, can generate additional revenue in excess of Rs.20, 000 crores: with that West Bengal’s debt burden can be halved in just five years.
Disciple: What is the mechanism of tax leakages and how can Mamata and Amit Mitra stop this?
Chanakya: Hardly few small and medium business enterprises give entire amount of tax. It is something like this: they need not pay tax of 10 xs and can pay tax of 5x on their sales, provided they just pay x to be jointly shared by political patrons, their goons and their sponsored government employees. The same is true of many professional who earns in cash from their clients without having to provide receipts.
Disciple: But your estimate of Rs. 20,000 crore seems exaggerated.
Chanakya: Remember, the previous Finance Minister Ashim Dasgupta had projected a 39% increase in tax revenues for the year 2011-12. He may have overestimated as usual – but may be this is really the potential. May be it is a biased over-estimate. But even if the true figure is 25% of Rs 20,000 crore, it is a substantial amount of money. We need to explain why West Bengal’s tax to State GDP ratio is so low and why can’t it be increased. And for Mamata, this is very easy to stop the leakages as Trinamool Congress is not yet conversant enough to utilize the communist invented leakage system. Tax collection system and vigilance over it has to be strengthened and closely monitored by the ministers and MLA groups throughout their constituencies.
Disciple: Mamata has announced a new tax on share transactions as it prevails in West Bengal and making mutations compulsory at the time of land property registration to increase revenues of the municipalities.
Chanakya: These are just two initiatives. There could be more. The land revenue tax (khazna) may be collected by the municipalities along with the municipal taxes and all municipalities should get fully computerized to get their taxes collected through local bank branches. To increase collection of municipal revenues on mutation of property, the mutation processing system needs to be rationalized for quick disposal, Why should mutations take more than 7 days and why can’t it be cleared in just 30 minutes across the desk on the basis of registered deed examination?
Disciple: What new taxes could be introduced?
Chanakya: Not many. More important would efficient, effective tax collection supervision. And, with efforts to step up economic growth should increase tax revenue collections further over the years.
Disciple: But Mamata is more left than the communists and will not raise resources through disinvestment of State public sector companies.
Chanakya: Yes, Mamata may be more left than the communists. But she has least tolerance for wastages, inefficiency. She might try to get more resources into these state-owned companies by what he calls private-public participation (PPP) model. This may reduce the burden of expenditure on the State to keep these companies going. And, she might find out that certain state companies like the HIDCO has substantial surpluses made through leasing of land forcibly acquired in places like Rajarhat (New Town – Jyotinagar): such companies may be asked to give high dividends to the State. That would be another source of resource mobilization.
Disciple: What about funding new projects?
Chanakya: It has been reported that many development projects suffer because the State has not been able to bring in their share of contribution to attract central government contribution to these projects. Reportedly, Mamata and Amit Mitra are incorporating in the State Budget, a strategy of giving priority to such projects that are eligible for 100% or maximum percentage of central assistance. This is another way of raising more resources for the State’s development projects.
Disciple: But, if this was so easy and made a substantial difference, don’t you think that an intelligent person like Ashim Dasgupta, the previous, communist Finance Minister would have adopted the same strategy.
Chanakya: You are right. But you are never sure about the application of brains washed by communist ideologies. Moreover, the strategy now being talked about by Amit Mitra may be more appealing than it ‘s limited cope of application in reality. However, every thing counts when the State is in financial distress. In any case, Mamata has been able to get a much higher allocation of central funds from the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission that even what the previous communist government had demanded. So, much progress has been done to take the much needed steps to effect a change in the State’s Budget and Financial health for the current year.
Disciple: Resource mobilization is one part. To balance the Budget or reduce the deficit so that debt burden growth reduces and interest payments do not eat away the major part of tax revenues. the government has to reduce expenditure: but can much be done here as most part of the expenditure like wages and salaries and interest on debt is unavoidable committed expenditure.
Chanakya: That is a myth. Not all expenditures are real expenditures. There is a parallel leakage system operating on the expenditure side. Not all expenditure on subsidized ration goes to beneficiaries when the number of ration card holders exceeds the total population in various areas of the State. There could be 25% leakage in the food subsidy expenditure of the State. There could be ghost employees in various layers in far flung areas and large manpower set ups. Not all widow pensions may reach the intended beneficiaries. The systems have to be computerized with easy cross verification with electoral rolls, bank customer lists. There could be considerable savings which could be used to pay back debt or for funding subsidies to more people.
Disciple: It will be a miracle if Mamata government can restore financial health of the West Bengal government and yet lift the economic growth rate in the State.
Chanakya: It may appear so. Managing public finances is not an unskilled political job, especiallu aftyer inhereting a near bankrupt State. And, this is only the beginning. Not even 45 days have passed since Mamata Government was installed. The new government's thinking and plans of action are acquiring progressive clarity. Do not expect magic wand to transform the State’s financial health overnight. Irrespective of bail-out package of the Central Government which can only be limited, Mamata has to restore financial discipline and remove all tendencies of profligate wasteful spending, under-utilisation of assets already in place and being created, as also drastically cut the leakages. How far is the government machinery ready for this Change promised and backed by Mamata's honesty, sincerity, agility, strong application of mind and degged determination.?
Chanakya: Yes, the new Government had come to power knowing very well that the financial situation is indeed very grave. Yes, they can blame the indiscipline and incompetence of the erstwhile communist rulers. But that does not lead the State to the promised change.
Disciple: But this is the most important and crucial area of Change if other changes are to sustain.
Chanakya: You are right. This is the Key Challenge to Change West Bengal. And, in this area the Bengalis will not resist any change, nor can they contribute. So long as the Government does cut their pay and increase the tax rates on the majority of the people, Government can just work out solutions on its own.
Disciple: But where is the solution? The communists have repeatedly said that the Centre has been discriminating against West Bengal in allocating financial resources to West Bengal, while collecting taxes from the States which have very little power to mobilize resources through taxes. The State can only beg for assistance from the Central Government in the form of a bail-out package.
Chanakya: First, the communists’ are liars in general: without lies you can fool public. If being communist, West Bengal was attracting discrimination against the State by the Center; it was foolish on the part of the people of West Bengal to keep the communist rule continuously for 34 years. And, once they have removed the communists from power, the Central Govt. cannot discriminate any longer. Why did not the communists tell that Truth to the public that it is better not elect the communists to power because they will attract discrimination. Not all States are ruled by the parties in power at the Center. So, how has other States’ Finances are in much better State than that of West Bengal. The simple fact is that the communists are basically dullards who cannot manage public finances, besides being corrupt to the core so far as its adverse impact on the State’s financial health is concerned. Besides, for five years, the UPA-1 government ruled only because of the communists’ support. During that period, instead of getting more monies from the Center, they were busy allowing their non-Bengali English and Hindi speaking ideologues to brow beat the Central Government on issues connected with US-India arms deal and economic cooperation, etc. Such rhetoric cost the West Bengal citizen’s heavily: the communists MPs were elected from the State to first advance the interest of the State than for building image of the Central communist leaders like Prakash Karat, Sitaram Yechury, Brinda Karat, AK Bardhan and Gurudas Dasgupta, etc.
Disciple: I understand what you are saying. The Bengal’s communist MPs brought virtually nothing for West Bengal’s economy: in a federal state structure, elected representatives must know how to get the fair share from the Central pool. They did not know and were busy shaping India’s future with less than15% of the seats in the Lok Shabha. I do not understand how the so-called highly political conscious citizens of Bengal’s tolerated this foolishness for such a long period.
Disciple: Let’s forget the foolishness of Bengal voters in supporting brainless communists in the past. Now, the Trinamool must arrange a bailout package for West Bengal from the Central Government.
Chanakya: I am sure that the Mamata is much more intelligent than the best of Bengal communists’ and more sincerely committed to West Bengal’s interest than projecting herself as the back-seat driver of the UPA-2 government’s national policies or international policies. And, she is more competent and honest politician and administrator than any of the Bengali communists seen so far. She will negotiate a proper bail-out package. But she also knows that bail-out packages are only bail-out packages that give the bankrupt State some more time to avoid complete financial collapse. The short time available has to be used to radically change the way the State’s finances are managed.
Disciple: But is there any thing that the Government can do reduce expenditure and increase revenues when the common people are reeling under the impact of high inflation?
Chanakya: If you have brains, honesty and willingness, you can do many things.
Discipline: Ok. How will Mamata increase revenues? She is rather a populist politician who reduced the VAT on LPG cylinders to zero This will reduce tax revenues. There would be demand for reducing VAT on diesel, petrol, kerosene and so on.
Chanakya: Do not confuse between reducing the incidence of taxes to provide relief to households’ strained budgets and increasing tax revenues. She has just to close the communist created taps of leakages of revenues under its ideology of broad-based, distributed and inequity reducing communist corruption.
Disciple: What is that? Are tax leakages substantial?
Chanakya: I read articles and heard interviews of a Bengali economist to get an idea of this communist innovation of tax leakage system. According to him tax revenue collection of Uttar Pradesh is 7.8% of State GDP while that of West Bengal is barely 4.5 %. It is difficult to explain this wide difference without revenue leakages. If West Bengal’s percentage improves to just 7% by closing the taps of draining out tax revenues tax collections in West Bengal will increase by 67% in absolute terms. Thus, the tax leakages, if stopped, can generate additional revenue in excess of Rs.20, 000 crores: with that West Bengal’s debt burden can be halved in just five years.
Disciple: What is the mechanism of tax leakages and how can Mamata and Amit Mitra stop this?
Chanakya: Hardly few small and medium business enterprises give entire amount of tax. It is something like this: they need not pay tax of 10 xs and can pay tax of 5x on their sales, provided they just pay x to be jointly shared by political patrons, their goons and their sponsored government employees. The same is true of many professional who earns in cash from their clients without having to provide receipts.
Disciple: But your estimate of Rs. 20,000 crore seems exaggerated.
Chanakya: Remember, the previous Finance Minister Ashim Dasgupta had projected a 39% increase in tax revenues for the year 2011-12. He may have overestimated as usual – but may be this is really the potential. May be it is a biased over-estimate. But even if the true figure is 25% of Rs 20,000 crore, it is a substantial amount of money. We need to explain why West Bengal’s tax to State GDP ratio is so low and why can’t it be increased. And for Mamata, this is very easy to stop the leakages as Trinamool Congress is not yet conversant enough to utilize the communist invented leakage system. Tax collection system and vigilance over it has to be strengthened and closely monitored by the ministers and MLA groups throughout their constituencies.
Disciple: Mamata has announced a new tax on share transactions as it prevails in West Bengal and making mutations compulsory at the time of land property registration to increase revenues of the municipalities.
Chanakya: These are just two initiatives. There could be more. The land revenue tax (khazna) may be collected by the municipalities along with the municipal taxes and all municipalities should get fully computerized to get their taxes collected through local bank branches. To increase collection of municipal revenues on mutation of property, the mutation processing system needs to be rationalized for quick disposal, Why should mutations take more than 7 days and why can’t it be cleared in just 30 minutes across the desk on the basis of registered deed examination?
Disciple: What new taxes could be introduced?
Chanakya: Not many. More important would efficient, effective tax collection supervision. And, with efforts to step up economic growth should increase tax revenue collections further over the years.
Disciple: But Mamata is more left than the communists and will not raise resources through disinvestment of State public sector companies.
Chanakya: Yes, Mamata may be more left than the communists. But she has least tolerance for wastages, inefficiency. She might try to get more resources into these state-owned companies by what he calls private-public participation (PPP) model. This may reduce the burden of expenditure on the State to keep these companies going. And, she might find out that certain state companies like the HIDCO has substantial surpluses made through leasing of land forcibly acquired in places like Rajarhat (New Town – Jyotinagar): such companies may be asked to give high dividends to the State. That would be another source of resource mobilization.
Disciple: What about funding new projects?
Chanakya: It has been reported that many development projects suffer because the State has not been able to bring in their share of contribution to attract central government contribution to these projects. Reportedly, Mamata and Amit Mitra are incorporating in the State Budget, a strategy of giving priority to such projects that are eligible for 100% or maximum percentage of central assistance. This is another way of raising more resources for the State’s development projects.
Disciple: But, if this was so easy and made a substantial difference, don’t you think that an intelligent person like Ashim Dasgupta, the previous, communist Finance Minister would have adopted the same strategy.
Chanakya: You are right. But you are never sure about the application of brains washed by communist ideologies. Moreover, the strategy now being talked about by Amit Mitra may be more appealing than it ‘s limited cope of application in reality. However, every thing counts when the State is in financial distress. In any case, Mamata has been able to get a much higher allocation of central funds from the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission that even what the previous communist government had demanded. So, much progress has been done to take the much needed steps to effect a change in the State’s Budget and Financial health for the current year.
Disciple: Resource mobilization is one part. To balance the Budget or reduce the deficit so that debt burden growth reduces and interest payments do not eat away the major part of tax revenues. the government has to reduce expenditure: but can much be done here as most part of the expenditure like wages and salaries and interest on debt is unavoidable committed expenditure.
Chanakya: That is a myth. Not all expenditures are real expenditures. There is a parallel leakage system operating on the expenditure side. Not all expenditure on subsidized ration goes to beneficiaries when the number of ration card holders exceeds the total population in various areas of the State. There could be 25% leakage in the food subsidy expenditure of the State. There could be ghost employees in various layers in far flung areas and large manpower set ups. Not all widow pensions may reach the intended beneficiaries. The systems have to be computerized with easy cross verification with electoral rolls, bank customer lists. There could be considerable savings which could be used to pay back debt or for funding subsidies to more people.
Disciple: It will be a miracle if Mamata government can restore financial health of the West Bengal government and yet lift the economic growth rate in the State.
Chanakya: It may appear so. Managing public finances is not an unskilled political job, especiallu aftyer inhereting a near bankrupt State. And, this is only the beginning. Not even 45 days have passed since Mamata Government was installed. The new government's thinking and plans of action are acquiring progressive clarity. Do not expect magic wand to transform the State’s financial health overnight. Irrespective of bail-out package of the Central Government which can only be limited, Mamata has to restore financial discipline and remove all tendencies of profligate wasteful spending, under-utilisation of assets already in place and being created, as also drastically cut the leakages. How far is the government machinery ready for this Change promised and backed by Mamata's honesty, sincerity, agility, strong application of mind and degged determination.?
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Bengal's Sprinting to Change #2: Towards Efficiency from Shirking
Disciple: Giving slip to accountability, shirking as a way of life, delivery when delivered, hochhey hobay, why hurry, every thing can wait, diffused responsibility, no standards for rewarding efficiency, output quality and speed, no penalties for performance below standard are what has been cultivated in West Bengal fr probably more than six decades and perfected during the last thirty years to the pinnacle of performing art in Bengali life in work places where the Governments, political parties and trade unions are involved.
Chanakya: All this is well known with Bengal citizens acting like Ostriches hiding their faces under the the sands of drama, dances, music, songs, residential apartment business and related activities, film fairs, book fairs, and other forms of entertainment and forgetting the trauma of trying to get treatment in hospitals, getting quality eduction within the State, getting ration cards, getting safely across the roads, getting to destinations in time through the inadequate roads and footpaths and traffic flow infrastructure bursting at its seams, negotiating water logging all over including homes, getting supplies from ration shops, getting water from the utilities and so on.
Disciple: It is also known now that all this is under attack finally for the first time with some determination and under some compulsions for new government to perform. For thirty four years there was no compulsion to change for the political parties that ruled West Bengal for win at each election at the end of five years assured them to win the next time. The State's economy had nearly become bankrupt. The new government cannot afford to relax the way the previous ones did for almost everything has stopped performing in the government, except occasionally and by chance. A few believed in the time deadlines set in the Election Manifesto of the Trinamool Congress: yet the voted the Trinamool to power.
Chankya: And, the new Chief Minister Mamata still remains the only person to still believe in and committed to living up to her promises in time, though even her staunch lieutenants and supporters may not be enthused with her zeal to speed up and improve service efficiency and quality to achieve the election manifesto targets. The latter in general may still be harnessing the expectation tat Mamata would slow down after a while before they can return to the comfortable lives of questioning ' what is the hurry, wait till we deliver.
Disciple: Of course, there are few exceptions like Shovan Chatterjee, Mayor of Kolkata, who struggled sincerity ad tenacity to fight the heavy rainfalls from bringing Kolkata to a stand still by entering into debates as to how much rainfall was there and how much the Kolkata Corporation can do contain the damages to the citizens caused by the disastrous fall of water from the heavens that cooled the City after the long hot summer. He and team did an excellent work of keeping quiet and performing with speed and efficiency in the midst of the disaster - much better than what the Citizens had seen in the last 34 years.
Chanakya: Naturally, Mamata is mounting the pressure on shirkers and not-used to performance standards bureaucrats and government employees in the State. She began with her own office and govt. headquarter at the Writiers' Building and then to Government Hospitals, And, then to headquarter offices of other departments like the Food Department, the fire service department. She exposed, live on TV for the citizens to know, how the empty desks were waiting for government employees to reach office hours after the normal office commencement time and files lying and dumped in shabbily consistent with wastage of time and effort in searching for papers resulting in delays in service. She showed how hospitals lay in dirty conditions and patients waiting for hours for the doctors failing to report to duty on time. She took officials to task giving them instructions to improve and asked questions which the employees failed to answer. The Bengali addiction to shirking and arriving late at office is so strong that even after one office or hospital was caught napping, others continued with their naps when the Chief Minister visited them the next day or a few days later.
Disciple: Skins have thickened over the years with little work effort and reading newspapers and gossiping for major part of the working hours. The Chief Minister reminded the adults in the government offices about their responsibility as paid servants of the people, and pleaded with various employees unions/ associations to give their dues in return of the salaries and benefits they get from the citizen's taxes.
Chanakya: At 11 AM, the Gariahat More seemed rather empty for a few days soon after Mamata's surprise visits: govt employees appeared to be started reaching in time and not still waiting for buses and mini-buses in the traffic jam usual at Gariahat. Government doctors closed their morning private practice clinic work a little early to reach office somewhat(?) in time. They started reporting to office in time for a few days and believed that this is for sometime and things could return to normalcy of reporting to office around mid-day. How can single Mamata make people change their habit of getting fat doles for very little work and ability to shirk: habits die hard. Some ministers seem to be following Mamata's surprise visit checks to remind the shirkers and lazy, irresponsible workmen to embarrass them for all pay and no/ little work cheating practices. But all these efforts even if sustained for long is unlikely to change the work morality of the Bengalis earning rent income for being on the rolls of the State government service. The lazy economists in the State have shied away from estimating the annual loss of , say 2 % of State Domestic product, because of the work shirking, inefficiency and low productivity of government employees and the consequent delays and low quality service to the citizens.
Disciple: A recent survey report submitted by the economics department of the University of Calcutta reported exposed the bluff of the government doctors that inadequate infrastructure is responsible for low quality service at government hospitals and reportedly lamented that even the available facilities and infrastructure were not being utilized to the full extent as doctors and paramedical staff connived to make a mutual arrangement that the full complement of staff need not be in the hospitals. Cheating the State is not considered an offence in the State ruled by 34 years of pro-poor communists.
Chanakya: The change so far is that the Chief Minister works full eight hours a day in the office and so does many other ministers and some top bureaucrats and a few conscientious employees at lower levels: this was not so for 34 years. But will the change spread among the government employees in general or the vicious circle of shirking, low productivity, low quality of service to citizens be broken at some point? There are no signs as yet that this desired Change number 2 towards efficiency will spread through out the Government machinery. Worshipping Marx and Tagore is consistent with cheating the citizens. But this practice will jot be sustainable. The CPM fell not merely because of its arrogance and repression but its encouragement of work immorality, shirking and cheating y public servants at the cost of the citizens. If the same things continue, it will be immaterial whether the Trinamool continues in power or the communists come back: the State of West Bengal will become a lost civilization in another 34 years.
Disciple: Mamata is unlikely to give up. But she must find new methods to be successful. Administrative reforms must address the issue of developing norms/ standards of performance and link deviations from norms and standards to pay and retirement benefits. Mere appraisal reports by seniors would not be of much help. CCTV monitors, computerised system of capturing work flows for on-line real time monitoring by independent agencies would be needed. Citizens need to authorised and encouraged to report negligence, ill treatment, delay in service and wasting time and resources on the part of any employee or group of employees of the State: for this purpose user friendly, tamper proof kiosks need to available. Citizens visiting government offices need to be encouraged to take photos/ videos for transmission to the State Government's Facebook-like Citizens' pages. Government's customer service satisfaction surveys should be conducted for different departments and district offices.
Chankya: You seem to have all sorts of ideas that yout Bengali brethern will say impractical and highly expensive.
Disciple: That is the usual shirker response: they will resistant change irrespective of what I suggest. And, I should not stop suggesting: The bureaucrats and other employees need to be deputed in batches for two year on-the-job exposure to other States like Gujarat. Tamil Nadu, Kartnataka as well as the Defence service departments and come back with performance appraisal report from the bosses under whom the employees worked while on deputation to other States.
Government Service delivery mechanism and its efficiency and quality should be offered as a compulsory paper with project work in Class Nine and second year under-graduate courses. The civil society organisations need to be given the facility of seeking urgent police and magistrate assistance for recording any shirking, ill-behaviour and delays in service by government offices.
Chankya: But all the above suggestions are a figment of imagination of a sub-human brain of yours. Will West Bengal use sub-human technologies to bring about the Change #2 initiated by Mamata Bannerjee? Or, will it be a repeat of the Buddhadev's slogan 'Do it Now" getting lost in wilderness. We will have to wait for a while to see if Mamata Jhor can sustain itself in the face of Bengali addiction to shirking and despise for Efficiency and Speed.
Chanakya: All this is well known with Bengal citizens acting like Ostriches hiding their faces under the the sands of drama, dances, music, songs, residential apartment business and related activities, film fairs, book fairs, and other forms of entertainment and forgetting the trauma of trying to get treatment in hospitals, getting quality eduction within the State, getting ration cards, getting safely across the roads, getting to destinations in time through the inadequate roads and footpaths and traffic flow infrastructure bursting at its seams, negotiating water logging all over including homes, getting supplies from ration shops, getting water from the utilities and so on.
Disciple: It is also known now that all this is under attack finally for the first time with some determination and under some compulsions for new government to perform. For thirty four years there was no compulsion to change for the political parties that ruled West Bengal for win at each election at the end of five years assured them to win the next time. The State's economy had nearly become bankrupt. The new government cannot afford to relax the way the previous ones did for almost everything has stopped performing in the government, except occasionally and by chance. A few believed in the time deadlines set in the Election Manifesto of the Trinamool Congress: yet the voted the Trinamool to power.
Chankya: And, the new Chief Minister Mamata still remains the only person to still believe in and committed to living up to her promises in time, though even her staunch lieutenants and supporters may not be enthused with her zeal to speed up and improve service efficiency and quality to achieve the election manifesto targets. The latter in general may still be harnessing the expectation tat Mamata would slow down after a while before they can return to the comfortable lives of questioning ' what is the hurry, wait till we deliver.
Disciple: Of course, there are few exceptions like Shovan Chatterjee, Mayor of Kolkata, who struggled sincerity ad tenacity to fight the heavy rainfalls from bringing Kolkata to a stand still by entering into debates as to how much rainfall was there and how much the Kolkata Corporation can do contain the damages to the citizens caused by the disastrous fall of water from the heavens that cooled the City after the long hot summer. He and team did an excellent work of keeping quiet and performing with speed and efficiency in the midst of the disaster - much better than what the Citizens had seen in the last 34 years.
Chanakya: Naturally, Mamata is mounting the pressure on shirkers and not-used to performance standards bureaucrats and government employees in the State. She began with her own office and govt. headquarter at the Writiers' Building and then to Government Hospitals, And, then to headquarter offices of other departments like the Food Department, the fire service department. She exposed, live on TV for the citizens to know, how the empty desks were waiting for government employees to reach office hours after the normal office commencement time and files lying and dumped in shabbily consistent with wastage of time and effort in searching for papers resulting in delays in service. She showed how hospitals lay in dirty conditions and patients waiting for hours for the doctors failing to report to duty on time. She took officials to task giving them instructions to improve and asked questions which the employees failed to answer. The Bengali addiction to shirking and arriving late at office is so strong that even after one office or hospital was caught napping, others continued with their naps when the Chief Minister visited them the next day or a few days later.
Disciple: Skins have thickened over the years with little work effort and reading newspapers and gossiping for major part of the working hours. The Chief Minister reminded the adults in the government offices about their responsibility as paid servants of the people, and pleaded with various employees unions/ associations to give their dues in return of the salaries and benefits they get from the citizen's taxes.
Chanakya: At 11 AM, the Gariahat More seemed rather empty for a few days soon after Mamata's surprise visits: govt employees appeared to be started reaching in time and not still waiting for buses and mini-buses in the traffic jam usual at Gariahat. Government doctors closed their morning private practice clinic work a little early to reach office somewhat(?) in time. They started reporting to office in time for a few days and believed that this is for sometime and things could return to normalcy of reporting to office around mid-day. How can single Mamata make people change their habit of getting fat doles for very little work and ability to shirk: habits die hard. Some ministers seem to be following Mamata's surprise visit checks to remind the shirkers and lazy, irresponsible workmen to embarrass them for all pay and no/ little work cheating practices. But all these efforts even if sustained for long is unlikely to change the work morality of the Bengalis earning rent income for being on the rolls of the State government service. The lazy economists in the State have shied away from estimating the annual loss of , say 2 % of State Domestic product, because of the work shirking, inefficiency and low productivity of government employees and the consequent delays and low quality service to the citizens.
Disciple: A recent survey report submitted by the economics department of the University of Calcutta reported exposed the bluff of the government doctors that inadequate infrastructure is responsible for low quality service at government hospitals and reportedly lamented that even the available facilities and infrastructure were not being utilized to the full extent as doctors and paramedical staff connived to make a mutual arrangement that the full complement of staff need not be in the hospitals. Cheating the State is not considered an offence in the State ruled by 34 years of pro-poor communists.
Chanakya: The change so far is that the Chief Minister works full eight hours a day in the office and so does many other ministers and some top bureaucrats and a few conscientious employees at lower levels: this was not so for 34 years. But will the change spread among the government employees in general or the vicious circle of shirking, low productivity, low quality of service to citizens be broken at some point? There are no signs as yet that this desired Change number 2 towards efficiency will spread through out the Government machinery. Worshipping Marx and Tagore is consistent with cheating the citizens. But this practice will jot be sustainable. The CPM fell not merely because of its arrogance and repression but its encouragement of work immorality, shirking and cheating y public servants at the cost of the citizens. If the same things continue, it will be immaterial whether the Trinamool continues in power or the communists come back: the State of West Bengal will become a lost civilization in another 34 years.
Disciple: Mamata is unlikely to give up. But she must find new methods to be successful. Administrative reforms must address the issue of developing norms/ standards of performance and link deviations from norms and standards to pay and retirement benefits. Mere appraisal reports by seniors would not be of much help. CCTV monitors, computerised system of capturing work flows for on-line real time monitoring by independent agencies would be needed. Citizens need to authorised and encouraged to report negligence, ill treatment, delay in service and wasting time and resources on the part of any employee or group of employees of the State: for this purpose user friendly, tamper proof kiosks need to available. Citizens visiting government offices need to be encouraged to take photos/ videos for transmission to the State Government's Facebook-like Citizens' pages. Government's customer service satisfaction surveys should be conducted for different departments and district offices.
Chankya: You seem to have all sorts of ideas that yout Bengali brethern will say impractical and highly expensive.
Disciple: That is the usual shirker response: they will resistant change irrespective of what I suggest. And, I should not stop suggesting: The bureaucrats and other employees need to be deputed in batches for two year on-the-job exposure to other States like Gujarat. Tamil Nadu, Kartnataka as well as the Defence service departments and come back with performance appraisal report from the bosses under whom the employees worked while on deputation to other States.
Government Service delivery mechanism and its efficiency and quality should be offered as a compulsory paper with project work in Class Nine and second year under-graduate courses. The civil society organisations need to be given the facility of seeking urgent police and magistrate assistance for recording any shirking, ill-behaviour and delays in service by government offices.
Chankya: But all the above suggestions are a figment of imagination of a sub-human brain of yours. Will West Bengal use sub-human technologies to bring about the Change #2 initiated by Mamata Bannerjee? Or, will it be a repeat of the Buddhadev's slogan 'Do it Now" getting lost in wilderness. We will have to wait for a while to see if Mamata Jhor can sustain itself in the face of Bengali addiction to shirking and despise for Efficiency and Speed.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
When Not To Hurry and Be Harried
It is difficult for people to judge when to hurry and when not to get harried due to hurry. The farmers who were in dream to get their lands back from the State Government got a shock with the Tate’s going to Court questioning the legality of the Singur Act passed by Mamata in the newly elected Legislative Assembly. The people who supported Mamata (48% of the voters) have started feeling sad. But 33% of the voters (CPM) are keeping their happiness secret while a few intellectual-type among them are shouting from the top of their roofs:”See this is what happens when one does things (Singur Law passing) in a hurry and get harried We told you so: it is impossible to return land back to unwilling farmers from whom land was acquired under a Law applicable throughout the country. Mamata has to pay for her impulsive hurry.
Price of Hurry in Singur Land Acquistion
Mamata may be smiling. Those who hurriedly acquired land from unwilling farmers at a time when protests against their oppression were simmering in various areas of West Bengal have already paid a heavy price for their inappropriate strategy of hurried force application. They got 30% of the votes and 13% of the Legislative Assembly seats (down from 66% share of the seats). Much before the elections, the CPM and the Let Front had admitted that the farmers were not taken into confidence properly before their and were acquired for onward lease to a private industrial farm. The State has lost agricultural production contribution from some hundreds of acres of highly productive land for ever while the nano car project did not get completed to bring in employment and icome benefits to the State. Blaming the agitators does not absolve the responsibility of the Government and the State to its committment to the Tatas for ensuring an atmosphere conducive to project construction and car prduction at the site.
Fulfilling Committment in a huury brings gains
Mamata may be smiling: to those whom she had promised return of land and those of her numerous followers and supporters, she has shown her earnest to act to fulfill her promise using whatever power she had as the Chief Minister and exposed the delaying tactics those who had objected to details in the Law and accused her of hurrying to fulfill her electoral promise.
Mamata may be smiling that by hurrying she has own the support of the masses and by delaying he could not have avoided the risk of Tate’s going to the court against her new Law: they would have gone even if the Law was passed after six months.
Court Case brings smile to many
The people responsible for acquistion of land in Singur may find reason to smile with the Tata's going to the Court. But they can only be satisfied with a grim grin for now. The Tatas have to fight: it would be unjust if the State cheats the Tatas by not paying compenstion for the breach of the land agreement contract by not allowing conditions conductive to project construction and car production operstions at the site. They will smile when the court process bring them a fair award of compensation or settlement. The lwyers on both sides would be smiling for nt merely getting paid but getting involved in settling basic issues relating to land acquisition by the State in the name of public purpose and public interest, limits on powers of the Govt. in legislating new law to take over land leased to private parties, and dstribute the same land in the manner in which the legislators wish. the rigts of the lease-ownes to continue to hold land in their possession untilised when there is no way the original objective of the the first nano project can be met , the original project having been already relocated ( the breach from the understanding between the two parties to the agrgeement of land lease and related concessions were breached by both the parties: who first breached is an important issue but the relocation of the nano project was also a breach of the basic understanding and must have been taken with due regard to the risk of jeopardising the enforcability of the agreement: the original nano project does not exist any longer for the agreement to be enforarcable).
Smiling throughout the Court case
Mamata may be smiling as the Court proceeds with the case and arrives at a verdict. If the case is disposed in the favour of the State Government, she will enhance her popularity as a heroine not only in Bengal but all over India.
If the court takes long time (even the State Government can take the case to the Supreme Court, if required), Mamata may be still smiling: She had been referred to as bad M as compared to Gujarat's good M and she had been accused of creating troubles for the Nano project in connivance with competing car manufacturers: now she will have the opportunity to smile as the proceedings of the Court will become a subject of public interest in the whole of India to know:
(a) If the Tatas got the land chead enough to improve the image of the Tatas and the Communist Government.
(b) That after 2008 the Tatas made no effort to complete the Nano project in West Bengal,
(c) That the Tatas acted like Shylock not willing to part with any part of the land leased to them under the deal with the State Government and that the Tatas demanded compensation from the previous government in order to return the land back to Govt.’s WBIDC,
(d) That Tata's cleanliness in concluding deals with Governments is currently under shadow with some Nira Radia lobbyist link to Spectrum allotment policy,
(e) That the former CPM chief minister ultimately failed to conclude a compromise deal with the Tatas to protect the interests of the unwilling farmers the Govt. forcibly disposed them of their livelihood assets,
(f) That the Nano project at Singur location was nothing like something of great Public Pupose / interest as such a project can be located at many other places like Gujarat (where it has been actually located) - unlike dams, coal mines, railway track, power transmission towers, roads and bridges required to be located in pkaces where they are needed by the general public,
(g) That the Tatas have not come up with another Nano project proposal to the State Government after 2009 when Gujarat Nano project had started commercial production nor after the new Government came into power and publicly announced that the Govt. would have no problem discussing with the Tatas on a new project investment, proposal at Singur.
Mamata may still be smiling if the Courts gives a ruling that the new Law is invalid: that would give a clue to what can make a new law valid. That would be solution Mamata and the State had been seeking. The experts who say the Land Acquisition Act of 1894 is supreme may still have to get the answer from the Courts whether the Indian Parliament/ State Government is within its power to
legislate something that allows the State to take land back from those whom the lands had been leased under a contract that cannot be fully enforced due to public agitation and new thinking of the legislators in greater interest of the society. Just a final word of the courts on the Singur Act or Tatas petition will not be the end of the journey. Indian Parliament is readying itself to put in place a new law on Land Acquisition and they cannot legislate something that will have no provision for taking back lease-land for public purposes even before the lease period expires.
Mamata would be at the end be smiling again that she had forced the Indian Nation to think independently and thoroughly over need new legislation relevant to current Indian context than continuing to apply a century old Law inherited from the days of slavery of the British that had no interest in acquiring, in the name of public interest, land for privately owned projects for non-utility projects seeking to produce goods that are not consumed by the vast majority of Indians and deprive the poor of their means of livelihood.
Let us see whose strategy is to hurry and when: all these issues of public interest cannot wait long for solution.
Price of Hurry in Singur Land Acquistion
Mamata may be smiling. Those who hurriedly acquired land from unwilling farmers at a time when protests against their oppression were simmering in various areas of West Bengal have already paid a heavy price for their inappropriate strategy of hurried force application. They got 30% of the votes and 13% of the Legislative Assembly seats (down from 66% share of the seats). Much before the elections, the CPM and the Let Front had admitted that the farmers were not taken into confidence properly before their and were acquired for onward lease to a private industrial farm. The State has lost agricultural production contribution from some hundreds of acres of highly productive land for ever while the nano car project did not get completed to bring in employment and icome benefits to the State. Blaming the agitators does not absolve the responsibility of the Government and the State to its committment to the Tatas for ensuring an atmosphere conducive to project construction and car prduction at the site.
Fulfilling Committment in a huury brings gains
Mamata may be smiling: to those whom she had promised return of land and those of her numerous followers and supporters, she has shown her earnest to act to fulfill her promise using whatever power she had as the Chief Minister and exposed the delaying tactics those who had objected to details in the Law and accused her of hurrying to fulfill her electoral promise.
Mamata may be smiling that by hurrying she has own the support of the masses and by delaying he could not have avoided the risk of Tate’s going to the court against her new Law: they would have gone even if the Law was passed after six months.
Court Case brings smile to many
The people responsible for acquistion of land in Singur may find reason to smile with the Tata's going to the Court. But they can only be satisfied with a grim grin for now. The Tatas have to fight: it would be unjust if the State cheats the Tatas by not paying compenstion for the breach of the land agreement contract by not allowing conditions conductive to project construction and car production operstions at the site. They will smile when the court process bring them a fair award of compensation or settlement. The lwyers on both sides would be smiling for nt merely getting paid but getting involved in settling basic issues relating to land acquisition by the State in the name of public purpose and public interest, limits on powers of the Govt. in legislating new law to take over land leased to private parties, and dstribute the same land in the manner in which the legislators wish. the rigts of the lease-ownes to continue to hold land in their possession untilised when there is no way the original objective of the the first nano project can be met , the original project having been already relocated ( the breach from the understanding between the two parties to the agrgeement of land lease and related concessions were breached by both the parties: who first breached is an important issue but the relocation of the nano project was also a breach of the basic understanding and must have been taken with due regard to the risk of jeopardising the enforcability of the agreement: the original nano project does not exist any longer for the agreement to be enforarcable).
Smiling throughout the Court case
Mamata may be smiling as the Court proceeds with the case and arrives at a verdict. If the case is disposed in the favour of the State Government, she will enhance her popularity as a heroine not only in Bengal but all over India.
If the court takes long time (even the State Government can take the case to the Supreme Court, if required), Mamata may be still smiling: She had been referred to as bad M as compared to Gujarat's good M and she had been accused of creating troubles for the Nano project in connivance with competing car manufacturers: now she will have the opportunity to smile as the proceedings of the Court will become a subject of public interest in the whole of India to know:
(a) If the Tatas got the land chead enough to improve the image of the Tatas and the Communist Government.
(b) That after 2008 the Tatas made no effort to complete the Nano project in West Bengal,
(c) That the Tatas acted like Shylock not willing to part with any part of the land leased to them under the deal with the State Government and that the Tatas demanded compensation from the previous government in order to return the land back to Govt.’s WBIDC,
(d) That Tata's cleanliness in concluding deals with Governments is currently under shadow with some Nira Radia lobbyist link to Spectrum allotment policy,
(e) That the former CPM chief minister ultimately failed to conclude a compromise deal with the Tatas to protect the interests of the unwilling farmers the Govt. forcibly disposed them of their livelihood assets,
(f) That the Nano project at Singur location was nothing like something of great Public Pupose / interest as such a project can be located at many other places like Gujarat (where it has been actually located) - unlike dams, coal mines, railway track, power transmission towers, roads and bridges required to be located in pkaces where they are needed by the general public,
(g) That the Tatas have not come up with another Nano project proposal to the State Government after 2009 when Gujarat Nano project had started commercial production nor after the new Government came into power and publicly announced that the Govt. would have no problem discussing with the Tatas on a new project investment, proposal at Singur.
Mamata may still be smiling if the Courts gives a ruling that the new Law is invalid: that would give a clue to what can make a new law valid. That would be solution Mamata and the State had been seeking. The experts who say the Land Acquisition Act of 1894 is supreme may still have to get the answer from the Courts whether the Indian Parliament/ State Government is within its power to
legislate something that allows the State to take land back from those whom the lands had been leased under a contract that cannot be fully enforced due to public agitation and new thinking of the legislators in greater interest of the society. Just a final word of the courts on the Singur Act or Tatas petition will not be the end of the journey. Indian Parliament is readying itself to put in place a new law on Land Acquisition and they cannot legislate something that will have no provision for taking back lease-land for public purposes even before the lease period expires.
Mamata would be at the end be smiling again that she had forced the Indian Nation to think independently and thoroughly over need new legislation relevant to current Indian context than continuing to apply a century old Law inherited from the days of slavery of the British that had no interest in acquiring, in the name of public interest, land for privately owned projects for non-utility projects seeking to produce goods that are not consumed by the vast majority of Indians and deprive the poor of their means of livelihood.
Let us see whose strategy is to hurry and when: all these issues of public interest cannot wait long for solution.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Bengal's Sprinting to Change #1: Giving up State’s Overriding Right to Forcibly Acquire Citizen’s Physical Property
Disciple: Singur in West Bengal has created a remarkable history. Some few hundreds of farmers were unwilling to part with their land forcibly acquired by the communist parties who managed the Government of West Bengal until 19th May 2011 for 34 years using a Law framed by the 19th century British when they ruled India. The communists’ government took away 1000 acres of land from the farmers at a price determined by them and they had claimed that they had offered a much higher than market price prevailing in the area (though every one knew that there were hardly few land sale / buy transactions in the market and hence the so-called market price reported by the Government was far from being a free, competitive market price: it is another matter than the communists’ thought of using a reference price that from the market – something they despise because possibly what Marx, Engle, Lenin. Stalin and Mao had bequeathed them as The Capital for their business. The unwilling farmers did not take the cheques the communist government asked the farmers to collect (the forcible acquirer of course had assumed that they had the justifiable arrogance to ask the sellers to collect cheques from Government offices rather than deliver to the unwilling farmer sellers at their homes: most governments in India think that it is below their dignity to deliver cheques to the farmers at their homes, just as the foreign British rulers would have done in relation to the native Indian citizens: probably when native slaves tastes power of the State, they copy the behaviour of their former foreign masters to treat the citizens of a free country as the slaves of the government – even after 60 years the blood of slavery runs active). The unwilling farmers refused and went into agitation. The communists used brutal force to oppress the agitating farmers (many got killed and injured in the process) and transferred the acquired land to the Tata’s for their new small (Nano) car project that would have created lot of employment and be the forerunner of West Bengal’s industrial regeneration. The Tata’s had to shift the project because of the continuous agitation by the farmers who got Ms Mamata Bannerjee, the founder chief of the Trinamool Congress – a political party with miniscule representation in the State legislature. What do you think Chanyakya will happen now?
Chanakya: As you are aware, Mamata’s Trinamool Congress has swept the communists in the elections to limit them to a mere 22% share –down from a share of about 80%. Mamata, as the new Chief Minister, has got a new legislation passed in the State Legislative Body on June 14, even before her government completed 30 days in office. This marks a great change in the history of West Bengal: forcible acquisition of lands from individual owners by the Government to transfer such land for private or public sector industry will probably never occur again. At last Bengalis seemed to have cowed down the arrogant government. Mamata is due to announce her new land acquisition policy to dilute the Government’s right to enter the business of buying land cheap using force and then giving the land on low cost lease to owners of industrial projects in the name of public purposes.
Disciple: Soon one would know how the newly elected legislators commit not to use the powers of the State to oppress physical property owners by forcibly acquiring from them at any price that the owners are not willing to sell. This could mark a great change from the all powerful citizen bullying foundation of the Indian State where banks and industries were nationalized at free will of the legislative majority.
Chanakya: What has been the response of the different players to this emerging change?
Disciple: Some lawyers of the communist and anti-Mamata Congress variety have made considerable efforts to find out factors that would put the implementation of the new Singur Law in to a legal quagmire: they expect lot of farmers who had accepted cheques from the former Government for selling their land in Singur would demand return of land. Tatas and their vendors along with these farmers go to court against the constitutional validity of the new law.
Chanakya: That is as usual of them: they are not in a mood to change that West Bengal demands but are only interested in pointing out why Mamata’s idea of the new Law is bad and foolish. They are unable to see the writing on the wall that even if the problems they predict would make the new Law impossible to implement, the fundamental change has been affected: the State cannot arbitrarily and summarily bully citizens into selling land to the State. Moreover, it is not the State Government which will have to defend the new Law but have to establish that they deserve compensation from the new Government that is reasonable and enforceable. Finally, these two lawyers who now frequent the 24 Ghanta channels have no idea of an alternative plan or law that would get the ‘unwilling’ farmers a piece of land that is equivalent to the land that the State had earlier forcibly been taken away by the communist government: they cannot think of anything that could unwind the damage to the people who were unwilling to sell their land.
Disciple: Most interesting response is of the communists. They have not objected to the return of the land to the unwilling farmers, but felt that there are lose points in the details of the legislation that could result in harassment for the farmers whom the new Law intends to bring justice. They criticized the Law but had no concrete alternative plan. Since they did not like the Government to hurry in enacting the new Law, they walked out of the legislature minutes before the Law got passed.
Chanakya: This again is as usual. The communists talk of something and mean something else. They only had brought injustice to farmers and argued that there is no way the unwilling farmers be given back land by the State when the communists were in power. Therefore, these farmers cannot be given back land even if Mamata’s government has replaced theirs. This is what they mean. They cannot agree to anything that makes the State (government) stoop at the feet of the ordinary citizens’ group (some farmers of Singur). What they talk is that they are communists and hence have no objection to people getting benefited from the new Law, if that is implementable. Since they are certain that the Law is not implementable and constitutionally invalid, they walked out so that when the farmers realize that Mamata’s Law was dumb squib, the communists could say “we told you so: don’t trust Mamata’s gimmicks”. If, on the other hand, the Law really benefits the intended farmers, the communists’ would say we had spoken in favour of returning land to the unwilling farmers. There is no change in the communists’ thinking and attitude so far and they are capable of interpreting whatever they say as being consistent with Marxian logic, philosophy and ideology.
Disciple: What about the BJP and common communist supporters? They are saying that the Law does not benefit the ‘law abiding, docile farmers’ whose land was also acquired by the communist government; the bargadars and landless laborer who were adversely affected because of the acquisition of land. This according to them is unfair. Because of the agitation of the ‘unwilling farmers’ the other farmers and citizens of the area could not get the benefit of the Nana project. And, these ‘unwilling farmers’ are being rewarded! This is discrimination by Mamata government.
Chanakya: When fools try to act smart, their brains deliver the garbage they are capable of. Mamata did not promise anything to these who will not be benefited by the new Law. The pitiable conditions that these so-called neglected groups had the option of joining the ‘unwilling’ farmers to protest against the bullying oppression of the communist government because they were satisfied with the cheques they had collected from the State and with the loss of opportunity to continue with their farming activities inflicted by them by their beloved / bullying communist government and the communist parties. Whatever they are saying now is only to instigate some sections against Mamata government. I think that they believe that they can organize a massive agitation by the Singur farmer, bargadars and landless labourer that could topple the Mamata government one day sooner than later. These people will take time to Change.
Disciple: Then who has changed?
Chanakya: None so far: Trinamool Congress has not changed because they would now be just implementing their promises in the election manifesto. When they try doing all these they would hopefully create conditions for others to change gradually, even if reluctantly. The Change process has just started. Only a few have seen the writing on the wall: do not resist change that is inevitable, otherwise you will be forced by the natural forces of change at a great cost later. The change is that the decay of the concept of all powerful dictatorial political regime and government has already begun. Land acquisition is the first area where the political and governmental prerogatives are getting abandoned.
Disciple: If this Change in the nature of the political regime and thinking is in the process of change, would it not corresponding change the way the markets for physical property change.
Chanakya: Yes, you are right. But even the Trinamool Congress and its supporting intellectuals are not yet conditioned for the emerging change in the land market. Their approach to economic issues is as yet as disjointed as the communists’. It may take a while for the Trinamool to accept the inevitable changes in the market for land. Rather, the communists can easily sense it because according to them Marx decried market mechanism of competitive nature. They will try to stop Trinamool to think of getting into competitive market mechanism. And this could be easy because Bengalis do not generally are scared of competition to reveal the real of worth each individual. But this is a subject for amusement economics (visit http://senkonomix.blogspot.com/2011/06/land-barred-economics-of-bengal.html ) ..
Chanakya: As you are aware, Mamata’s Trinamool Congress has swept the communists in the elections to limit them to a mere 22% share –down from a share of about 80%. Mamata, as the new Chief Minister, has got a new legislation passed in the State Legislative Body on June 14, even before her government completed 30 days in office. This marks a great change in the history of West Bengal: forcible acquisition of lands from individual owners by the Government to transfer such land for private or public sector industry will probably never occur again. At last Bengalis seemed to have cowed down the arrogant government. Mamata is due to announce her new land acquisition policy to dilute the Government’s right to enter the business of buying land cheap using force and then giving the land on low cost lease to owners of industrial projects in the name of public purposes.
Disciple: Soon one would know how the newly elected legislators commit not to use the powers of the State to oppress physical property owners by forcibly acquiring from them at any price that the owners are not willing to sell. This could mark a great change from the all powerful citizen bullying foundation of the Indian State where banks and industries were nationalized at free will of the legislative majority.
Chanakya: What has been the response of the different players to this emerging change?
Disciple: Some lawyers of the communist and anti-Mamata Congress variety have made considerable efforts to find out factors that would put the implementation of the new Singur Law in to a legal quagmire: they expect lot of farmers who had accepted cheques from the former Government for selling their land in Singur would demand return of land. Tatas and their vendors along with these farmers go to court against the constitutional validity of the new law.
Chanakya: That is as usual of them: they are not in a mood to change that West Bengal demands but are only interested in pointing out why Mamata’s idea of the new Law is bad and foolish. They are unable to see the writing on the wall that even if the problems they predict would make the new Law impossible to implement, the fundamental change has been affected: the State cannot arbitrarily and summarily bully citizens into selling land to the State. Moreover, it is not the State Government which will have to defend the new Law but have to establish that they deserve compensation from the new Government that is reasonable and enforceable. Finally, these two lawyers who now frequent the 24 Ghanta channels have no idea of an alternative plan or law that would get the ‘unwilling’ farmers a piece of land that is equivalent to the land that the State had earlier forcibly been taken away by the communist government: they cannot think of anything that could unwind the damage to the people who were unwilling to sell their land.
Disciple: Most interesting response is of the communists. They have not objected to the return of the land to the unwilling farmers, but felt that there are lose points in the details of the legislation that could result in harassment for the farmers whom the new Law intends to bring justice. They criticized the Law but had no concrete alternative plan. Since they did not like the Government to hurry in enacting the new Law, they walked out of the legislature minutes before the Law got passed.
Chanakya: This again is as usual. The communists talk of something and mean something else. They only had brought injustice to farmers and argued that there is no way the unwilling farmers be given back land by the State when the communists were in power. Therefore, these farmers cannot be given back land even if Mamata’s government has replaced theirs. This is what they mean. They cannot agree to anything that makes the State (government) stoop at the feet of the ordinary citizens’ group (some farmers of Singur). What they talk is that they are communists and hence have no objection to people getting benefited from the new Law, if that is implementable. Since they are certain that the Law is not implementable and constitutionally invalid, they walked out so that when the farmers realize that Mamata’s Law was dumb squib, the communists could say “we told you so: don’t trust Mamata’s gimmicks”. If, on the other hand, the Law really benefits the intended farmers, the communists’ would say we had spoken in favour of returning land to the unwilling farmers. There is no change in the communists’ thinking and attitude so far and they are capable of interpreting whatever they say as being consistent with Marxian logic, philosophy and ideology.
Disciple: What about the BJP and common communist supporters? They are saying that the Law does not benefit the ‘law abiding, docile farmers’ whose land was also acquired by the communist government; the bargadars and landless laborer who were adversely affected because of the acquisition of land. This according to them is unfair. Because of the agitation of the ‘unwilling farmers’ the other farmers and citizens of the area could not get the benefit of the Nana project. And, these ‘unwilling farmers’ are being rewarded! This is discrimination by Mamata government.
Chanakya: When fools try to act smart, their brains deliver the garbage they are capable of. Mamata did not promise anything to these who will not be benefited by the new Law. The pitiable conditions that these so-called neglected groups had the option of joining the ‘unwilling’ farmers to protest against the bullying oppression of the communist government because they were satisfied with the cheques they had collected from the State and with the loss of opportunity to continue with their farming activities inflicted by them by their beloved / bullying communist government and the communist parties. Whatever they are saying now is only to instigate some sections against Mamata government. I think that they believe that they can organize a massive agitation by the Singur farmer, bargadars and landless labourer that could topple the Mamata government one day sooner than later. These people will take time to Change.
Disciple: Then who has changed?
Chanakya: None so far: Trinamool Congress has not changed because they would now be just implementing their promises in the election manifesto. When they try doing all these they would hopefully create conditions for others to change gradually, even if reluctantly. The Change process has just started. Only a few have seen the writing on the wall: do not resist change that is inevitable, otherwise you will be forced by the natural forces of change at a great cost later. The change is that the decay of the concept of all powerful dictatorial political regime and government has already begun. Land acquisition is the first area where the political and governmental prerogatives are getting abandoned.
Disciple: If this Change in the nature of the political regime and thinking is in the process of change, would it not corresponding change the way the markets for physical property change.
Chanakya: Yes, you are right. But even the Trinamool Congress and its supporting intellectuals are not yet conditioned for the emerging change in the land market. Their approach to economic issues is as yet as disjointed as the communists’. It may take a while for the Trinamool to accept the inevitable changes in the market for land. Rather, the communists can easily sense it because according to them Marx decried market mechanism of competitive nature. They will try to stop Trinamool to think of getting into competitive market mechanism. And this could be easy because Bengalis do not generally are scared of competition to reveal the real of worth each individual. But this is a subject for amusement economics (visit http://senkonomix.blogspot.com/2011/06/land-barred-economics-of-bengal.html ) ..
Friday, June 10, 2011
Response to Grow up: Sprinting to Change
Mother Bengal, according to the Poet, nursed Bengalis to merely remain so but had not taken care to grow them up into a human race of the modern world. The opportunity has just come up for Bengalis to change and grow up. In this quick sprinting for change, how are the different actors responding and performing? That is the the subject of this serial posts in this blog for next few months. Real change does not fall from heaven: it has to be brought in through hard, intelligent and competent thinking and actions. How are different actors contributing or inhibiting? How much of addictions to the past inhibitions and to emotive euphoria the Bengalis are preparing themselves to give up? Or, the Quick Sprint be halted before the the Bengalis change to grow up?
Conclusion of Kurukshetra Serial
Bengal Election Kurukshetra is over. Kouravas have lost and have been decimeted. The new regime has begun with diversity of Change initiatives at great speed. The hangover of the War is fading and pepole are awaiting democracy, peace, economic development and governance to firmly get re-established after many lost decades for Bengal. Bengalis have probably learnt the lesson that political parties are far from God, Fairness, Efficiency, Honesty and pro-people unless the citizens constantly chase them and demand performance rather than getting brain-washed by political lectures and drama. A rotten party may have lost power, but it does not mean that we have got a permanent good party in replacement. We have to be always on the vigil to stop ruling and opposition parties from leading us and the State to astray. The story of Kurushetra must be read again and again to remind us of the need for peoples' constant vigilance in the absence of which political parties become monsters. So, I reproduce the entire story of Bengal Election Kurushetra War 2011 below for ready access in a chronological order.
The Great War of Bengal Election Kurushetra, 2011
(Collection of posts by Dr. Basudeb Sen at Sentertainment Kolkata http://senskolkatamonitor.blogspot.com)
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
1. Bengal Warms Up for Kurukshetra
Maharaja: How are the rivals shaping up for the War of Election Kurukshetra, Sanjay.
Sanjay: The warming up battle has just been concluded. This is just a rally-based, inaugural battle. There was not much to describe. I would just request you to listen to a conversation that I have recorded for you, my Excellency. C and T, two typical ordinary Bengali voters of the strongly politically conscious breed that proliferated since the 1960s in West Bengal, picked up the appropriate verbal duel the other day. Since media in Bengal is meant for intellectuals and politicians, I have this special CD created for you. First, they claim their right to victory. Each party is a Self-declared Winner. Please concentrate on the CD being played.
C: We are going to win the elections to the State Assembly being scheduled in May/
T: You are dreaming. You have lost the Parliamentary elections, panchyat elections, the municipal elections since 2008. Voters have deserted you. We will continue our winning streak in the ensuing elections.
C: We have already made a comeback. This has been proved by the turn out of people at the Brigade Parade Ground Left Front meeting on 13 February. Voters have come back to us. Remember, we have won the State election six successive times.
T. You did not see the voter turnout at the feet of Gandhi Statue on 20 February and loud call to evict you from the position of the Ruler in West Bengal. Voters are with us now.
Maharaja: Sanjay, the rivals seem to be confident it appears.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. Both exude Confidence, but the CPM releases the Track Record Weapon first. Just listen:
C: Voters are not going to be impressed by your rallies. They are impressed by our excellent track record of achievements. We have achieved so many good things in 34 years: panchyati raj, land reforms and land to tillers, expansion of education for all and heath facilities, industrial estates, rapid growth in agricultural output and fish, poultry, IT Parks and employment there, so many state government corporations for transport, infrastructure and for housing for the common people.
T: The voters have got tired listening to your decades old hackneyed song. They now can see through your old song to assess the reality of your poor performance record. You have converted the panchayati raj into your party raj giving away favors to your party loyalists. You distributed lands to many but forcibly took back from those who did not obey your party instructions or protested against your oppression. Your party’s aggressive labor movement drove out big industries and industrialists away from West Bengal and consequently forced many small industrial units to close down. West Bengal’s rank in industry has gone down substantially because of your incompetence. With little job creation, talent and merit had flocked out of the State in search of high salaried jobs elsewhere. Your health services expanded in terms of brick and mortar: actual health service quality has deteriorated.
C: All these are propaganda of the capitalists, stooge of US Imperialism and the media. What record do you have?
T: If we had 34 years to rule uninterruptedly, we would have made our State among the top ranked in terms of industry, agriculture, transport and employment. You are a tested failure: we are not tested failure like you.
C: We have long experience and competence. Our ministers are very experienced and competent. You have no experience and competence.
T: We have lots of experience and lots of competence. Our leader has long experience as Central Minister for the Railways and sports. She has performed the best among the Railway Ministers to date. She brought so many railway projects to West Bengal. We have four five ministers at the Centre. All these ministers have shown that they are more competent than your ministers with long innings.
C: Your ministers work very little. How can they be competent when they spend most of the time in West Bengal although they are Central Ministers?
T: Competence is proved by results and not how much time you spent on working in the office room.
Sanjay: Next the CPM fires the Ideology Missile and the Trinamool uses the anti-ballistic Ideology missile.
C: You have no ideology. We have the most scientific ideology developed by such great people as Marx, Lenin and Stalin. Our ideology is for the betterment of the week and the poor.
T: Our ideology is also for the betterment of the weak and the poor. We believe in democracy and not on single party dictatorship and oppression. Our ideology is not imported but based on the thinking ofinternationally recognized Indian thinkers like Gautam Buddha, Raja Rammohan Roy, Bankim Chandra Chattopadhyay, Swami Vivekananda, Sarat Chandra Chattopadhyay, Rabindranath Tagore and Subhas Chandra Bose, besides legend performers like matinee idol Uttam Kumar and Suchitra Sen.
C: But you have no comprehensive idea of the society, history and dialectic materialism in your ideology.
T: We have a clear vision as to what we want Bengal to be in future years. We are at the same time action- and resulted-oriented. You only give lectures based on an ideology discarded all over the World. You could not even paint how West Bengal would look twenty years or Fifty years hence.
C: Do not get excited with temporary set backs: all the poor of the World knows Communism will soon grip the whole World again.
T: You are still in dreaming state.
Sanjay: Next, the rivals exchange the Terrorism bombardment.
C: We are not dreaming but try to stop your terrorist activity. Yours is a party of goons, criminals and extortionists.
T: Your party is the most competent and experienced in terrorizing the common people. In three decades you have only developed two armed forces to terrorize torture and oppress those who seek democracy and protests against your discrimination and repression: one is your Harmad terrorist gangs and the other is the State police converted into a force controlled by your party bosses to oppress the people not showing allegiance to your party’s command.
C: Your party is anti-national extremist group because you support, encourage and collaborate with the Maoist terrorists. You have never denounced the Maoist killings of our supporters and ordinary villagers. Rather, you want withdrawal of central forces deployed in the in the State to combat the Maoist terrorists.
T: Maoists are nothing but your dissident former members and supporters who profess the same Marxian ideology as your do. They are your party’s creation. They turned to terrorism because you wanted to repress them. You did not ban them but wanted your Harmad gangs to annihilate them. You neglected the poor and weak tribal people who have no alternative but become the target of oppression by both your party and the Maoists. On the other hand, we have made public appeal to the Maoists to lay down arms, stop killing and get on to talks with Central Govt. You are practicing terrorism. You have good relations with the Maoists in Nepal also.
Sanjay: Heavy shelling continues with Injustice Protest Credential bullets now:
C: Voters know well that we are not practicing terrorism but fighting terrorism and violence perpetrated by the Maoists and your party. We are a party has a solid history of providing leadershipto the poor and the weak in their struggles and agitations against social and economic injustice. You have no connection with the bulk of the poor and the weak. Hundreds of our party supporters and activists have been killed by the Maoists and your goondas.
T: We have always rushed to the people who have been exploited and oppressed, especially in the villages by the Police or the Harmad army of your party. We have not taken up arms and become violent even when your party sent armed Harmad gangs and police to repress all protests and agitations of the oppressed people Singur, Nandigram, Rajarhat, Sashon, Chotoangaria, You have killed the weak and the poor in different places: we have rushed to those places to protect them by non-violent democratic methods. Your party has murdered hundreds of our party cadres and supporters who rushed to the help of the poor. Your party is using the State police to continuously harass our party workers by falsely implicating them in various cases.
Sanjay: Now they shift to use the Education -Culture fighter aircrafts in the sky:
C: Your party does not have the qualities to protect and provide leadership to the struggles and agitations of the poor and the weak. Your party and its members are mostly – from leaders to cadres and supporters lack proper educational and cultural backgrounds. Our party is far superior to you in this regard.
T: Unfortunately for you this did not happen even if you had so wished. Many of our leaders are more educated than many of your leaders. You have the support of only those educated, intellectual groups or persons of culture and sports whom you extended benefits from the State: they do not protest against you mainly because you purchased their loyalty by giving them State patronage. You discriminated against many other educated, intellectuals and talented people including actors, artists, sports persons, poets, novelists who refused to accept your party’s dictatorship like slaves. They are now supporting us because the value the principles of and values of democracy that you seek to destroy. Your fascism has been exposed to them and they are frustrated with your arrogance and abuse of State power.
C: You have no support from independent thinking intellectuals educated and cultured groups of people. Some opportunistic persons have become your party supporters and loyalists. Some of them are even patronizing Maoists.
T: That is your propaganda. You have failed to suppress all educated, cultured intellectuals and creative persons to toe your party’s stand all the time.
Sanjay: The battle shifts to the Ocean with Development Submarines:
C: The common people will not cast their votes for a party like yours which is anti-development. You have been creating obstructions to all our development activities. People know how they and the State lost when the Tatas did not get the land because of your negative agitations and withdrew the Nano car project.
T: Nano project is a recent development. Before that our party did not agitate against ay development project. You did not have any significant development project in the State for nearly three decades. Even in the case of the Nana project, our agitation was not against the development of the project itself. We merely wanted the Government to return the land of 400 acres to farmers who were unwilling to sell the source asset of their livelihood. The remaining lands of 600 acres acquired from willing farmers were available for the Tata Project or any other project.
C: But what development initiatives has your party taken for West Bengal?
T: We are not in power in the State. But within a mere 18 month period our ministers have brought in so many development projects through the ministry of Railways, Shipping and Urban Development. Your party could not bring in so many development projects and so much investment commitments as our party has done in the last 33 years.
C: You are not aware how much we have been doing through the State Budget and several MOUs and land allotment to IT projects. The voters know about them/
T: Your party goes on announcing MOUs for many big projects, but none of them materializes. What happened to the four/ five projects announced with fun fare in Salboni and other places including the one of the Jindals? Why are not they progressing.
C: This is because of the adverse publicity that so long as your party is there you will be obstructing most of the projects in West Bengal. You are not a responsible opposition party.
T: We are responsible opposition party. Our MLAs act the way it is needed in the Assembly and outside.
Maharaja: But the battle is becoming boring than entertaining Sanjay.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. That is why they are continually shifting the battlefield. They have now comeback to use Quality Leader tanks:
C: You do not have high quality leadership to act responsibly. We have an educated, cultured and civilized leadership. Ad, we have democratic decision making in the party itself. You have one dictator leader and unruly, undisciplined cadres. Quality of your leadership is poor.
T: We have a leader whom the masses love. She is a Master of Arts and a Bachelor of Law. She herself sings, recites poetry, and participates in intellectual debates, paints, besides encouraging performing arts, culture and sports. She knows how to honor National and State heroes and past luminaries in different fields. Just look at the naming of stations and trains. Your party’s culture is restricted to Nadan, film fairs, book fairs and CAB elections. She named and renamed railway and metro stations to honor many of Bengal’s cultural luminaries who had been neglected by the CPM from their very inception.
C: Your leader has been wasting Railways funds on advertising of inauguration/ foundation and stone-laying events almost every day to project her image.
T: Your party-ruled Government is spending huge amounts in both print media and TV channels advertising what the Left front government has done in the last 34 years at the cost of the West Bengal exchequer to attract voters.
C: Your leader has brought Railway Finances to a great difficulty.
T: Your profligate wasteful expenditure and inability to collect revenues have increased the Govt. of West Bengal’s debt burden to about Rs 2 lakh crore in 34 years. This is unsustainable.
C: Your leader has allocated more projects to West Bengal compared to other States, and gone ahead with projects not yet approved by the Planning Commission.
T: Your party the over-dominating ally of part of the First UPA Government at the centre. You wielded power over that government and yet could get only four railway projects for West Bengal allowing other States to get much more. You will soon come to know how far our leader has progressed in just one year when she presents the Railway Budget later this week.
C: Your leader has made large number projects and promises: very little of them will materialize.
T: Yes, she has announced many projects and trains. All may not be completed or started in just one year months of her tenure but most promises have been kept and most projects started or about to start. Voters will know the details soon.
Sanjay: Sir, they have now started using Corruption Bombs and Inflation Guns:
C: Voters have also come to know that your party is part of the coalition government at the Centre which is deeply entrenched in big corruption cases: Common Wealth Games to IPL Cricket of BCCI, from 2-G Spectrum to Defence Flat allotment scams. Voters will shy away from friends of the Corrupt.
T: You were ally to the same Congress-led Government of the first UPA. Voters also know that you have friendship with scam-tainted parties and their leaders. Your friends like Lalooji, JayaLalitha and others are well-known for their ghotalas. Even in local self governance in the State and various government departments there are reports about corruption and scams. You have lot of things to explain to the voters.
C: As if you are so clean: speck and span. There are reported ghotalas in self government bodies controlled by your party. And, you are responsible for inflation too. Your coalition government has been raising petroleum prices and increasing inflation.
T: Your government has also increased taxes on various items. You should rather reduce the local taxes on petrol, diesel and such items to provide relief to the public. Central government cannot control the international prices of crude oil that the country imports.
Maharaja: What is Next, Sanjay?
Sanjay: That’s exactly they are engaged in Sir.
C: We will win hands down. People are once again rallying around us after they have recognized that we have purged bad elements from our party and are no linger appearing arrogant. In case we fail to get 51% of the seats, we will still be a formidable opposition in the Assembly and see what you are capable of. You are not going to have easy life.
T: In case we slip a little, we shall be a formidable opposition. You will runaway because you have never faced such formidable opposition. You are already breathless with our weak strength in the Assembly. But do not worry: you do not have to face that opposition. When we release our election manifesto, the electorate will get convinced that they need change and for change they need to vote for us to bring about the change for the better tomorrow.
C: We will also release our Manifesto soon. Just see what happens after that. With your record of violence and killings in colleges and villages and your rising arrogance, you are losing your popularity. Soon there will be a landslide against you. You are not the type of party on which the Bengal electorate can depend on for the future of the State.
Sanjay: Maharaja, the first phase battle is over now. No casualties: with injuries the parties agree to ceasefire for the day.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
2. West Bengal’s Election Kurukshetra: Second Phase
Maharaja: How is the Election Kurushetra progressing Sanjay?
Sanjay: The second phase battle has drawn considerable interest of spectators. Not much rookies or pawns are in view: bishops and knights demonstrate their skill riding horses and elephants with high octane sound boxes. Very interesting indeed
Maharaja: The Leftists led by CPM raised lots of expectation about giving a strong fight in the second day’s battle of Election Kurukshetra. They chose the day of the War: the Railway Budget Day. Yes, the Railways are not the issue or target of the CPM. The enemy is the Railways’ Minister Ms Mamata Bannerjee, the trouble-maker for the CPM in West Bengal. All major CPM leaders cheered up the crowd for the second day’s battle. But they returned completely bruised at the end of the day in the Parliament and in TV screen debates. All their missiles got burnt-out by Mamata’s Railway Budget Speech.
Maharaja: How was the Second Day’s battle? Did the Leftist use the latest versions of their weapons?
Sanjay: Yes, Maharaja. They did but could not use them effectively. They had chosen a weak strategy and an inappropriate day because Mamata was fully prepared for both solid Defence and smart offensive moves to win over the voters. She had the widest range of weapons that Railway arsenal is rich with.
Maharaja: Please narrate the use of weapons.
Sanjay: The leftist fielded the few stalwart articulate debaters they have. They alleged that Railway Finances are in a mess: ‘Mamata is capable of doing the Impossible – She has turned the Railways from a profit making department to a loss-making department”. Their allegations have turned out to be completely false.
Maharaja: How?
Sanjay: The figures reported by Mamata showed that the Railways made a much larger surplus, though the major part of that surplus was eaten away for payment of huge arrears of salaries to employees on account of the Par Revision to the extent of 97% increase. The Railways earned more gross revenues than what was budgeted for 2010-11. She gave the normal dividend and met her capital expenditure target more or less.
Maharaja: But did not the leftist use follow up attacks on the Finances.
Sanjay: Yes, they did but that brought lot of embossment and they got bruised. They still harped on the Railways having made a loss, thereby revealing their ignorance of what loss means. They even said that because of the loss, Railways will have to borrow more in 2011-12. They seem to know that only budget deficits require to be met by borrowing. And, Mamata did generate an excess in 2010-11, will generate another larger excess in 2011-12 and will get more borrowings to finance her Rs.50, 000 crore plan capital outlay for 2011-12. Maharaja, since you are blind, you can read the post at http://senkonomix.blogspot.com/ . She shattered all attacks of her enemies on this field.
Maharaja: What other weapons did the left use?
Sanjay: The CPM had thought that Mamata cannot keep fares and freight rates constant for three successive budgets and awaiting a chance to bombard the Trinamool chief’s anti-people activity. Unfortunately, Mamata did not give that chance to them. Rather, she further consolidated her anti-inflationary, pro-poor image. Mamata used the logic of being consistent with the need for curbing inflationary spiral by putting off any increase in passenger fares and freight rates and took the credit of being poor friendly. She has also announced reduction in booking charges and concessions. CPM calls this election-oriented activity but admits that no increase in fares and freight is a positive step.
Maharaja: But didn’t the left brigadiers use the aerial attack with poor physical performance bombs and missiles.
Sanjay: Of course they did Maharaja: The CPM counted on demolishing the Trinamool Chief on her actual achievement in relation to her promises and targets. But these bombs and missiles went astray not able to locate the best target spots. Mamata gave figures to disappoint her critics again. She claimed to have met targets in most of the areas fully and in some cases to a fairly large extent: her Railways have set a record in new lines project completion, gauge conversion, line doubling, survey completed for identified projects, introduction of new trains, increasing the frequency of trains, reducing unmanned level crossings and progress of work on new factories proposed. And, she used her actual performance artillery to justify her equally ambitious targets for 2011-12 and attract points from the voters. She proved that the Railways are capable of doing much more things at a faster speed. The CPM stalwarts like Yechury and Acharya could not inflict any damage to Mamata’s credibility: her credibility on delivery of promises got strengthened. Her new set of promises will please many voters. CPM could do nothing about this.
Maharaja: Didn’t the leftist use the Naval attack with long-distance missiles of future pessimism to create suspicion in the minds of electorate?
Sanjay: That was the last, fall back attack the leftist relied on. They did try to develop the clouds of uncertainty about the future of Mamata as Railways’ Minister. The critics sarcastically pointed out that Mamata has to remain as Railway Minister if the Rail’s targets were to be achieved, but she also wanted to be the Chief Minister of West Bengal and therefore she was making promises she won’t be there to meet. CPM seems to be completely unnerved and did not know what quagmire they were falling into.
Maharaja: How could Mamata turn the table?
Sanjay: She carefully planned to instill in the minds of the Electorate and give them the feeling that Mamata would be further aggressive in ensuring that her promises at least to West Bengal are met and that she would be able to give more time to her ministry’s work once the State elections are over and she decides not to become the Chief Minister (assuming that CPM’s fear materializes)? Then, the Railways would do even better. On the other hand, if she were to become the next Chief Minister of West Bengal, Trinamool would continue with the assured Railway Ministry till the UPA-2 government’s tenure ends. Mamata would then become also the boss monitoring and reviewing the performance of her party colleague she would nominate to take over the Railway portfolio in the Union Cabinet.
Maharaja: How could Mamata signal this certainty?
Sanjay: That was clever craftsmanship. The Budget details showed that the bulk of the Railway’s capital expenditure plans for the projects in West Bengal had been crafted as non-lapse-able, non-transferable and specific bond raising programmes linked to remove uncertainty about her promises being realised.
Maharaja: Did the leftists give up fighting within a few hours of the start of the battle.
Sajay: No, Sir. The communist stalwarts were determined to fight till the end of the battle period. Of course, they were faltering at each step at every debate. One questioned why Manipur should get a diesel locomotive project – that’s a National loss for locating such a project in a remote yet-to-be-connected-by rail location. The debate revealed this person knows nothing about what the diesel locomotive unit is supposed to be doing and how locating such a project in Manipur would contribute to Nation Saving.
Maharaja: What about the anti-parochialism shelling by the leftist’s captainSanjay: They used that also but failed to snatch the popularity from Mamata. When Mamata Bannerjee was seen flagging off new trains in West Bengal, the leftists had complained that she was not functioning like a Union Minister. And, when she proposed in the Railway Budget new trains, new lines and new railway factories in West Bengal, they complained that she converted Railways into largely a West Bengal Railways and Kolkata Metro. Mamata rattled off the list of her projects and programmes - whatever is necessary and possible in all different parts of the country - from Jammu and Kashmir to Tamil Nadu and from Maharashtra to Manipur and developing the most integrated network of Railways for the entire country ever envisioned by a Railway Minister. The leftist shells became waste garbage and CPM got embarrassed being unable to retort to Mamata’s quip: Is Kolkata not in India as much as Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai are (and by implication is Kolkata not as important to claim Railway resources as much those cities claimed over the years)?
Maharaja: I am no fan of Trinamool or Mamata. But I have appreciation for people who deliver quality performance and like to see politicians using their brains for criticisms based on reality and facts rather than out of fear of competitively more efficient performer in terms of delivering results.
Sanjay: Sure, you’re Excellency. That is the reason that I make all effort to extract entertainment when people fail to deliver results as promised and just emotionally debate without logic and facts.
Post Script: Lok Sabha on Monday March7 2011 approved the Rail budget for 2011-12 after Railway Minister Mamata Banerjee assured the House of effecting measures to ensure availability of adequate coaches and wagons in the coming years. “Our performance is not bad...I have (approved) 16 projects. There will be no problem of coaches,” she said winding up the discussion on the Rail Budget. The Rail Budget was passed after Speaker Meira Kumar suspended rules to allow the House takes up the general discussion on Rail budget, supplementary demands for grants and relevant appropriation bills together.
Referring to the crippling shortage of coaches and wagons, she said, the Rae Bareli factory would roll out its first coach in April. “I will invite UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi for the function in April,” she said, adding that other factories would also come up to bridge the demand-supply gap of coaches and wagons.
Earlier during the discussion, some members accused her of bypassing Planning Commission and Finance Ministry. “It is a deceitful budget done through the sleight of hand. This railway budget is a victim of coalition compulsions and I am surprised how the Prime Minister (Manmohan Singh) allowed such a budget,” CPI-M Rajya Sabha leader Sitaram Yechury told reporters in parliament. Yechury said the budget has been prepared keeping in view the upcoming assembly elections in West Bengal, where Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is in opposition. But even then there is nothing in the railway budget for the next year, he said. Mamata’s announcement on projects for Bengal has been done keeping assembly elections in mind and she has cleverly placed them in the 12th five year plan under the PM’s Rail Vikas Yojona. So nothing is for the 2011-12 year. Even last budget announcements have not been fulfilled for Bengal,” he said. The CPI-M leader in the Lok Sabha, Basudeb Acharya, also criticised the railway minister and said: “Plan of Vision-2020 has gone haywire as no adequate funds have been announced for the projects in 2011-12 like laying 1,300 km of rail line. Even last year’s plan for l, 000 km reduced to 700 km in revised budget of 2010-11.”
Refuting charges of ignoring Finance Ministry and Planning Commission, the Minister asserted that she has not done anything without their approval. “We discuss every proposal with Planning Commission before going ahead...we should not play dirty politics in development works,” she said, adding that everything was done in accordance with the Constitutional provisions.
The Minister also assured the members that their constituencies would get one passenger railway system (PRS) on individual request. About new lines in their constituencies, the members were assured by the minister that Railways would conduct a feasibility study and inform them about the fate of their proposals. On concerns expressed by the members on projects pending since long, Banerjee said such projects worth Rs. 1, 50,000 were stalled because of fund crunch and these could not be financed from earnings from fare and freight.
She assured all members that their request for Aadarsh Stations in their constituencies would be considered but it is not feasible to have too many World Class Stations because the consultancy work alone requires funds to the tune of Rs. 30 crore to Rs. 40 crore.
The Railways bore extra financial burden due to imposition of cess on diesel and 6th Pay Commission report, but did not increase fare and freights. About the Public Private Partnership (PPP) in Railways, she said a committee was working on it. She said anti-collision devices would soon be introduced in seven railway zones to prevent mishaps.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
3. Bengal Prepares for Election Kurukshetra
Sanjay: The phase three of Bengal Kurukshetra has begun.
Maharaja: How is the fight going on? Who is leading?
Sanjay: No, Sir the battles in the third phase have not started as yet. It is all preparations going on currently in different party camps, within rival alliance groups and between the warrior political parties and the Neutral Regulator, EC (the Election Commission), to ensure free but fair battles.
Maharaja: Then, tell me the developments in difference camps.
Sanjay: First, about the EC’s announcement of the dates of last round of battles: the battle grounds have been grouped into six clusters and six different dates – three in the second half of April and three in the first half of May have been fixed.
The final results of the Great War would be available on live screen on May 13 – lucky day for the EC- three days after the last battle of the last round is over.
Maharaja: Why is all this necessary?
Sanjay: Because, the Great Kurushetra Election War of West Bengal 2011 is an entertaining, but a rare event that may revolutionise the face and brain of Bengal The EC does not want any of the illegal, unfair and bloody warfare activities generally being resorted to in the battles unofficially held for the last one and half year between the rival parties.
Maharaja: How does the EC ensure that?
Sanjay: EC has certain prescribed codes that the parties will have to follow and there are certain rules that all contesting parties must adhere to. EC will regularly monitor the compliance of each party and penalize offenders. It has its own army of peace-keeping forces, monitors, investigators to carry out its responsibilities for free and fair war.
Maharaja: Give me some idea about the important rules.
Sanjay: Use of some weapons is banned as soon as the EC has announces the dates. For example, no major voter-benefiting decision can be taken by the Ruling party without the prior approval of the EC. It is already examining an alleged violation by the West Bengal’s Finance Minister of having cleared such decision files late at night on the day the EC made the announcement of the War schedule.
Similarly, investigations are going on alleged use of official/ red-light blinking car by certain minister and on alleged distribution of cycles to school girls by another minister. The EC has also sent notices to the State Government to remove all posters and suspend advertisements suggesting/ claiming that the Government of the CPM-led Left Front is the People’s own Government. The Kolkata Municipality has been told to remove all posters that promote the image of the TMC and its leader. Otherwise, the EC will remove all such posters, hoarding, wall painted advertisement at the cost of the parties concerned and this expenditure will be counted as election expenditure of the party candidates in the elections. The TMC Mayor of Kolkata Municipal Corporation was seem immediately supervising removal of TMC leader’s large cut-out images from the premises of the Municipal office. The CPM is trying to take back the cycles from the girl students.
Maharaja: What is this election expenditure limit you were referring to?
Sanjay: As per the Election War Rules, there is a limit on the amount a candidate contesting the elections can spend on election campaigns to publicize his candidacy including distribution of manifesto literature, conducting meetings, expenses on related travels, food and lodging, salaries to his agents and other service providers to help him in his campaign. The spending limit for a Parliamentary constituency in major States now stands at Rs. 40 lakh and for Assembly constituencies in the major States at Rs. 16 lakh. Surprisingly, however, expenditure on election campaigns by political parties is outside the purview of these limits. Still the contestants find this limit too little to compete properly. This argument is invalid though: because each candidate has the same limit and the voters can be directly contacted at home by personal visits for soliciting votes. But the politicians want to use modern technology and advertising/ promotion campaigns in the same way as consumer goods marketing departments do. So, they manage to spend much more than the legally permissible limit.
Maharaja: How do they do this?
Sanjay: That has been very easy in India. The candidates do not spend this extra amount on official records. This expenditure is incurred out of black money generated by the economic and administrative system designed by the politicians themselves. The extra amount is spent unofficially by the political parties and the rich traders and industrialists that have to appease the politicians to get favor to evade taxes, get government permissions/ approvals for the businesses and as extortion money. But now the EC has designed a system to monitor the election campaign activities and the expenditure associated with such activity during the campaigns. Besides, they have alerted the Income Tax department to collaborate with them regarding large cash withdrawals from banks that are likely to be used for illegal spending on election campaigns by parties and candidates.
Maharaja: Don’t these politicians and political parties submit income tax returns.
Sanjay: Yes Sir, the politicians do. But they may not disclose to the income tax all their black incomes and stash them in bank accounts in the name of party workers and others who do not have white income enough to give taxes. Most importantly, the political parties are not subject to income tax, independent audit committees and statutory auditing as per any specified generally accepted accounting standards as in the case of companies. The Accounts of political parties are not even required to be disclosed to the public through advertisements or website. This system of protection to political parties with black money transactions has been designed by the politicians themselves. They talk about manipulation of accounts by companies and sit in Committees to investigate frauds and tax evasion by companies but no one can scrutinize their accounts in public interest.
Maharaja: That is damn good design for political business! What can the EC do then?
Sanjay: Even within the limitations of the system, they are trying their best. Maybe, sooner or later, they will insist on political parties to submit audited accounts and cash flow statements to the EC and publish these in the newspapers.
Maharaja: So, preparations are going on to deal with the EC regulations and inspections and investigations. But how are inner party conflicts?
Sanjay: These are to be sorted out soon. In all parties, there are various groups/ factions at the National/ State and district levels. The main issue is about devising the appropriate party selling points and distribution of the fixed number of contestable constituencies among competing potential candidates. TMC seems to have little or no problem of inner party conflicts because the Campaign Content and the candidates are decided primarily by its leader who has the last word: either you accept her final verdict or leave the party: there is not much scope for negotiating or bargaining with her beyond presenting your case once. She is the only rallying point for all other leaders and workers in the party and all supporters in the party. They will go with whatever she decides: even if they wanted to defy her: that would hurt them and not the leader or the party.
Maharaja: What about Congress and CPSanjay: There are a lot of conflicts to be resolved here. For CPM, the officially approved leader is the current Chief Minister, Buddhadev Bhattacharyya but the factions in the districts are recommending many candidates that the State level leaders are not willing to accept because of their principles of distance from corruption or contribution to the party’s electoral achievements in the recent past. Similarly, the All-India CPM leaders are debating about the emphasis on different selling points for the party manifesto and election campaign literature. They are reportedly not on all points with the State level leaders. These conflicts led to some delays in CPM’s announcement of candidates and release of the manifesto. In the case of one of CPM’s coalition partners, the RSP, there is already a revolt against a prominent senior State leader being accommodated as the candidate in a constituency from where the local leader got elected last time. This problem has arisen because the senior leader’s earlier constituency has been reorganized and therefore he has little chance to win from any of the neighboring reorganized constituencies and had to look for a safe constituency for the party elsewhere. The coalition partners of CPM’s left front are weak both individually and together and therefore have no alternative but to be contented with the CPM-dominated marginal existence till such time CPM fails to win adequate seats to form a government even with the support of coalition partners. So, occasionally on paper the coalition partners like the CPI may criticize CPM for their mistakes that cost popularity and credibility of the Left front alliance and for not taking the small partners into confidence, in real terms they do nothing effective against the CPM.
Maharaja: And how is Congress placed?
Sanjay: There are two factions within the State Congress. One, those who are very hopeful about a great Congress revival in the State assembly elections despite their loss of face in the recent Kolkata Municipal elections where they went ahead without alliance with TMC which swept the elections to a majority victory. This group has strong reservations about accepting TMC leader’s dominance over a possible alliance. They want a one-third of the total constituencies be allocated to Congress against TMC leader’s informal indication of allocation about half that number though reportedly she may show her affection to Congress’s national leaders by allocating up to 60 seats to the State Congress. Two, those who feel, along with the national level Congress leaders, that only a coalition lead by the TMC leader is in the ultimate interest of the Congress and removal of the CPM-dominated left front from power in West Bengal. This group would probably accept any number of seats allocated by the TMC leader to Congress to fight the elections as a coalition partner.
Maharaja: So, the TMC-Congress Coalition may still be a still-born one.
Sanjay: We cannot rule out that possibility. But the Congress Central leadership will not be willing to allow the State Congress to ruin the brightest opportunity that they have ever seen to beat the CPM and the left front hands down.
Maharaja: How long will take all these conflicts to be resolved and the real battles begin.
Sanjay: Just wait for a week Maharaja. By then the line up will be ready, the War cries will be heard and campaign battles start.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
4. Communists Line Up
Sanjay: Maharaja, Your Excellency’s ears may be capturing drum beats of the Great War.
Maharaja: Yes, it is very faint still. There is no conch blowing as yet! Why is it such a low key? The warriors with their leaders are not yet ready?
Sanjay: You’re right, Maharaja. Only the Marx-aligned Communist Camp has lined up all the 294 battle chieftains under the overall command of the Communist Comrade Undisputed Leader Buddadev Bhattacharya, the current Chief Minister of West Bengal. He is going to be assisted by the Marx-aligned Front leadership under the Chairmanship of Comrade Biman Bose. The list of contestant chieftains of the communists was announced on Sunday lucky 13th March evening. Immediately, small processions of communists roamed through the roads of various battle constituencies with voce vote cries. The drams started beating.
Maharaja: Any particular strategy can you discern from the formation of the communists.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. First, the average age of the chieftains has declined with the withdrawal of a large number of old guards including winning heroes of the Elections five years ago and induction of younger chieftains. Second, the women squad has been strengthened it seems, though many are yet to establish their credentials in their constituencies: Matri-Sakti (mother- power) in capturing women voters has been invoked probably to contend the Matri-Sakti-Leader Image of the rival party. Third, a few strong warriors with great vote capturing powers have been dropped because of their infamous activities in the battle of Singur, Nandigram, Sassan and/ or because of their failure to keep their rating as non-performing asset hidden from public eye or their inability to hide their corruption explosives under the carpet. Finally, some old and strong warriors have been shifted to apparently safer battle constituencies.
Maharaja: How is the line up consistent with the War Manifesto?
Sanjay: The Manifesto took quite a while this time to cook up and serve it as an ace to that is beyond the capability of comfortable, spinning return by the rival or the electorate. There are too many issues to be dealt with but all are not very substantive to the electorate. There is no wave of past glory to sail through speeding past victory line at this point. Rather, the external environment is against Communist slogans and long dictatorship, though capitalism is still nursing serious wound following the Great Recession and Financial Crisis of 2008. Bulk of Arab countries and North Africa are witnessing revolutions against erstwhile popular, national leaders who ruled for decades as fascist dictators dedicated to the poor, common man continuing to be without economic and political freedom of expressing different views. On top of this, a section of the Bengali intellectuals of performing arts are trying to stage plays like “Animal Farm” of Orwell (1945-6 vintage) that portray the fascist atrocities of dictators in the name of the proletariat.
Maharaja: What is the political drama?
Sanjay: This is the usual anti-establishment campaigns of the elite intellectuals any where. Time to time, the current Communist government of West Bengal – a part of the Indian Capitalistic State, has been trying to stop these intellectuals to stage such anti-establishment plays to reveal the ruling government’s undemocratic and fascist features. Just before the Kurukshetra Election War, this is proving to be all the more adverse to the communists. So, one of their influential leaders influenced the police to stop the staging of play by making a complaint of likely violation of the Election Commission Code of Conduct and the District Administration citing the reason for their action as the non-payment of entertainment tax by the organizers of the stage play. This has created a much publicized controversy over the communist hypocrisy when the communist Chief Minster said that the staging of the play should have been stopped by Administration while the Senior Officials serving the Chief Minister saying that the stage show was stopped because of technical deficiency of the promoters and the police showing evidence of complaint received from Chief Minister’s own party colleague saying that the staging of the ply would be breach of election code of conduct.
Maharaja: This is silly. Unnecessarily undermining the image of the communists by the party men is silly at this stage. The controversy is more damaging to the Communist War preparedness than the damage that might have been caused by the stage play itself.
Sanjay: You are right Maharaja. But as you know tempers, nervousness and tensions run high as the Elections draw near and the Great Battle is just about to start. Do not worry, the rival parties can also be expected to do such silly self-damaging acts soon. The Communists may get their chance to create controversy to inflict image degradation of the rivals.
There are more silly tactics that damaged the image of the communists. One erstwhile high flying State leader who lost Lok shabha elections in 2008, quietly brought a police-reported absconding party leader at district level to the State headquarters to settle the issue of getting a constituency to act as contestant chieftain and allowing the local police to arrest him on charges of murder, possession of unauthorised lethal weapons and other crimes. The headquarters it seems asked the police to arrest him if he so desired but did not give a ticket to the election contest. Police arrested him and put him in jail custody instead of keeping him in police custody for investigation, favoring him with a better and safer place to enjoy life and at the same time abide by the Election Commission’s directive of arresting all alleged criminals against whom warrants are pending for arrest. This person was reportedly absconding for the last few years from the police but moving about in all places around the police station but not going to the police station. This hardly helps create conditions for release of a suitable Manifesto.
Maharaja: That is very unfortunate, Sanjay. But how strong is the Manifesto bombing?
Sanjay: I have not got the reports on the detailed specification of the Manifesto as yet. But it seems that it is unlikely to detonate. It uses the same old oft-repeated issues about the two Congresses - the Indian and the Trinamool variety, as being useless, utterly incompetent and pro rich as contrasted to the highly poor-dedicated, efficient communist front that continues to promise employment generation with small scale industry proliferation, rapid industrialisation (without being industrialist friendly), inflation control, land acquisition with better compensation and creating infrastructure that places West Bengal among the top Indian states in terms of education, health care, etc.
Maharaja: That should work well.
Sanjay: It seems doubtful that this Manifesto Bomb will work. It may be easily defused before it detonates. The present Manifesto seems to be saying to the electorate to choose the communists because they are less dangerous to the electorate than their rivals. There could have been more effective manifesto bombs. One, the Karat-style Bomb with ingredients of dreaming up the communist revolution to overthrow all capitalism from West Bengal in just five years after thirty three years have gone waste. Two, a Bomb with ingredients of admitting all failures and mistakes from continuing to tax petroleum fuel, to sick experiments with education, to continue all violence, to allow profiteering house-promotion activity as the main business of CPM activists and loyalists, to remove Somnathn Chatterjee from the Party at the instance of a Keralite of little contribution to West Bengal or democracy, to allow police to be used by party leaders and activists in whatever way they liked, to allow a Hindu businessmen to use senior police officials to drive a poor professional to death because his daughter married this Muslim youth, to interfere in the election of the cricket association, to describe the government of West Bengal as the Left Front’s government rather than the government of all the people of West Bengal, to allow low and sub-standard brains (including the one dishonest enough to declare himself as PhD while not in possession of such a degree) to rule education), to allow Maoists to proliferate and not confront them squarely with legal and security weapons, to enforce government land acquisition on hundreds of unwilling poor farmers and bargadars and firing to kill some of them when they were in protest agitation, to allow unions and musclemen to act as chieftains of government hospitals, and so on.
Maharaja: How can you expect a ruling front to admit their mistakes and failures and yet win elections?
Sanjay: If you don’t, your bomb manifesto does not seem credible to the electorate. The issue is not of winning elections for a genuinely pro-poor party. It is one of re-establishing their credibility. Even if they win this Election, they would still be without credibility with the current manifesto. It would just be another five-year term for a party without direction and credibility. On the other hand, by admitting to all their failures and faults comprehensively and unhesitatingly and promising not to repeat any such mistake in future, they would have regained credibility. Without credibility, you cannot really become a better party than the rivals; however, badly you paint them in the manifesto.
The Communists have wasted the last chance of coming out again as a clean party. You cannot predict what the electorate will finally do. Whether you win or lose, you needed a manifesto that would have restored your credibility as a clean, honest and transparent party that is consciously satisfying the needs of the electorate they serve. The latest manifesto emphasis development if the poor people, agriculture and industry with the promise to make West Bengal among the top Indian States in terms of peace, per capita/ total purchasing power, education and health care facilities/ standards. Given the record of the past few years and the 34 year rule and the Communists’ reluctance to admit fault without excuses as well as to public commitment to not repeat the mistakes and failures, would the electorate consider the manifesto as credible?
Maharaja: Be that as it may. But whether they will win or lose will also depend on the line up of the main rival front and their manifestos.
Sanjay: Certainly. On this account till 16th of March, the communists are well ahead. The Congress and the Tranamool are still locked in bargaining the mix of lineup of chieftain contestants for 294 constituencies. Both the parties have wasted lot of time to resolve their disputes over merely 15-18 constituencies out of the total 294. Their pre-poll alliance may not come through. Even it materialises, it may not be a very healthy, cooperating front. Either way, this is advantage to the communist alliance.
The manifestos of the Trinamool and the Congress are not very important to the electorate. They know what Indian Congress is all about and the capability of the State Congress leadership to work as a team and with a clear vision of West Bengal. The electorate knows already what the Manifesto of Mamata Bannerjee’s Trinamool would be - she has repeatedly said all this over and over again as to what she wants to do in West Bengal if her party comes to power. I will come back to you either on March 19 or on with all details on this.
Maharaja: What about the new generation technologies warfare at Bengal Kurukshetra?
Sanjay: This is interesting, your Excellency. New technologies like campaigns through SMS on mobile phones, websites, blogs and twitter are going to be used on a large scale for the first time in West Bengal. The mobile phone operators and Internet site owners are sniffing opportunities of great business here. Election Commission will find it difficult to keep pace with this. Another re-engineered ancient technology is going to be used. It’s kite flying. The sky of West Bengal will be embracing millions of kites of colored Green and Red - the official colours of the main rival parties. There is going to a very good demand for such kites. Since kites have to reach each house tops and each child in West Bengal, the kites will be flying only to be cut-off from the strings within few minutes of flying. As these new technologies of war fare begin, I will be able to describe to you as to how exactly they are being used in the future weeks.
Maharaja: What next, Sanjay.
Sanjay: I will soon come back to you with update on the continuing current Phase Four of Bengal Election Kurukshetra.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
5. In the Midst of Colors of Spring
Maharaja: What happened to Non-communist line up Sanjay?
Sanjay: This time, there may again be partial or full three-way battles in Bengal Kurukshetra. The Communist Alliance has already announced its lineup of contesting chieftains - a more youthful set of warlords than the team that clinched a two-thirds majority in 2006. Some valiant old guards who could not get constituencies to contest because of tainted images are deployed to deal with logistics. They have released their Manifesto Bomb promising to bring in peace, purchasing power of citizens, education and healthcare of the top category comparable to the best in the country.
Maharaja: You told me about this earlier. But what the Congress Couple Buddhadev wants to beat?
Sanjay: Maharaja, Buddhadev is fascinated by his childhood experience. Those days, there was a single Congress Party in India and its election symbol was a ‘pair of bulls’ coupled to plough the land or move heavy cart loads. That is gone. In West Bengal, there are two Congress Parties now. The current All India Congress ruled by the descendants of the first Indian Prime Minister Nehru and her daughter, Indira Gandhi who also became a Prime Minister, was carved out the original Congress Party that vanished from the political scene.
In West Bengal, there were a few splinter group Congress Parties for brief periods and they also vanished. Mamata Banerjee was the only women youth leader of the Indira’s Congress Party. She even became a sports (?) minister in the Congress Ministry at the Centre. But she felt manipulated by different factions of the Congress leadership in West Bengal and finally formed her party with grass root Congress cadres. She christened her party as Trinamool (grass root) Congress, which now boasts of many erstwhile Congress leaders senior to Mamata in the State working as her lieutenants. Her Trinamool Congress has been the major opposition force in West Bengal since then.
Maharaja: But how come these two Congress Parties are in an alliance now.
Sanjay: Your Excellency. I seek your patience for a little historical background to explain this so-called alliance. The All India Congress repeated failed to give any worthwhile fight to the communists and continued to treat Mamata’s party as minor outfit. The reluctant attempt to form a formal coalition with Trinamool led to a disaster for both the parties in 2001. In 2006, they did not form any coalition as the Congress Party in the West Bengal became a party that was comfortable with whatever benefit they could get by not being aggressive against the CPM. The relations between the Congress and the Communists became extremely cordial when after the 2004 National Elections there was a hung Parliament and the CPM extended outside support to a Congress Government. That installed the Congress’ UPA (united progressive alliance) -1 Government at the Centre. Trinamool with negligible representation in the Central Legislature (Lok Shava) did not matter. But the Congress had to pay a heavy price for the CPM support. First, CPM exerted an overbearing influence in policy making. Second, by being outside the government, it took no responsibility for the poor performance of the government (including any scam that could later embarrass the Government. Third, special assistance had to be extended to the CPM government in West Bengal. Fourth, Congress could not object to the way the CPM government in West Bengal oppressed the opposition voice in the State. Finally, the CPM withdrew the support to UPA-1 government as the Government went ahead with the nuclear electricity generation support deal with the US. The Congress managed to survive the Trust Vote in the central Legislature, though accused by the BJP and the Communists of purchasing votes in exchange of cash.
Maharaja: So, CPM did play a very clever strategy getting all that they could by taking advantage of a lower than adequate Congress strength in the Parliament and then pull the rugs under their feet at what they considered appropriate to form a thid front Government.
Sanjay: Yes, that is called as the Karat-ee Strategy. But it was clever by half. It is this strategy that paved the way for the rise of Mamata and Trinamool Congress, especially at a time when CPM’s blatant fascism reached its height with events in Nadigram, and Singur and CPM fighting the Maoists in Lalgarh deploying its own armed cadres rather than leaving it solely to the police.
It is only then that Central leadership of the Congress Party sought ways to use the Trinamool Congress in cutting CPM at its base. It is at the instance and directive of the Congress central leadership, the Congress leadership most reluctantly went into a poll-alliance with the Trinamool in the Lok Shava elections in 2009. And, they came out triumphantly, reducing CPM”s Lok Shava strength form West Bengal from 40 to 16, with Trinamool bagging 20 and Congress 8. The Congress now needed Trinamool as partner in its UPA-2 alliance.
Maharaja: Then, this alliance should flower now.
Sanjay: Unfortunately, This is not a straight forward alliance. The local Congress leadership would not let Trinamool to grow into dominance and be satisfied playing a second fiddle to Mamata, even if they had no problem in acting in the same role in relation to the CPM, earning them the label of ‘CPM’s B team’. So, there was no alliance between Congress and Trinamool in the Pachayat Elections and the Municipal Elections with both the Congress and Trinamool doing far better and crushing CPM to defeat in many areas. The Trinamool’s slogan for Change in West Bengal created a great wave, embarrassing the CPM. But now the Congress in West Bengal wants to ensure that they get as much allocation of constituencies in the West Bengal Assembly elections. They thought of 126 constituencies as just but asked for 90 as a fair demand. Mamata felt 42 is what was fair for the Congress but initially offered 58. After a series of negotiations she offered 62 and then raised it to 64. She thought Congress would soon announce the alliance formally.
Maharaja: I got the impression that the negotiations would be over soon when you last narrated the progress of the War to me.
Sanjay: Yes, But I did say that this may not be easy. Congress is a veteran in negotiations and specialise in time wasting techniques that could unnerve the other party on the negotiation table. After waiting for four days from what was termed as the deciding final negotiation on Sunday 13th March, Mamata went ahead and announced her chieftains for 228 constituencies, leaving 64 for Congress and 2 for her other partner SUCI on Friday 18th evening. Her candidates began their campaign with colors along with the CPM contestants. Saturday 19th and Sunday 20th are the days of Colour Spring Festivals in West Bengal and India (Doljatra and Holi). With perfumed powder of various colors from Green to red and blue to pink, the candidates roamed along the streets and visited the residents in the constituencies to exchange greetings, entertain themselves in spring season dance and songs and gossips and of course seek support from the electorate.
This is a gaiety beginning to election campaign in West Bengal for all except the Congress. One CPM leader however really stole the show. While Buddadev addressed various election meetings in his Constituency, Guatam Dev who changed his constituency this time gave sponsored interview for hours together to 24-Ghanta News channel: the interview was broadcast on both 19th and 20th of March. More colors got into the election campaign paintings on the walls of the residents. West Bengal is all colors now.
Maharaja: What strategy did Trinamool adopt in its list of 228 chieftain contestants?
Sanjay: The usual strategy that all political parties adopt is larger number of women chieftains and larger number of Muslim and Scheduled Tribes/ Caste Chieftains. This has been adopted. But probably of necessity, Trinamool is required to field contestants who have so far been mere party sympathisers rather than party activists/ cadres. The party may have many grass root supporters but not as many leaders required to attract voters and look talented in terms of intellect, competence, and administrative capability. So, many leaders have to be inducted also from outside the party fold: persons from medical profession and film/ TV serial/ stage acting have been fielded. Besides, a former Chief Secretary of the West Bengal Government and a Secretary General of an all India association of industry and commerce have been roped in to contest against Buddhadev, the current CPM chief minister and Ashim Dasgupta, the current CPM finance minister, respectively. This list of Trinamool contestants, Mamata feels has representations from various sections of the society who want change and build a new Bengal that cultivates democracy, allows administration to work efficiently without political party interference and dictates, and enthuses small, medium and large business enterprises in agriculture, service and industry sectors.
Maharaja: But what will the Congress do now? It is a clear advance to our communists then!
Sanjay: Yes, Maharaja. The Communists have advantage at this stage. I will come back to you soon as the Trinamool is set to release its Manifesto Bomb on Monday the 21st and the Congress Chief Sonia Gandhi decides on the fate of the alliance with Trinamool shortly, given that the first phase election nomination of candidates is scheduled on 24th March, However, since the elections will be in six phases spread over a month, the Congress may also keep it options open till some more time. If Trinamool fails to get to power in West Bengal, it may become a more demanding alliance in the UPA-2 government for Congress at the centre to deal with.
Maharaja: It looks like the CPM has come back.
Sanjay: As the elections draw further close, all parties and candidates will be emotionally in a state of come back to put up a great fight. That is the enjoyment of War, Maharaja. That is the entertainment - not what the actual results turn out to be. It is not the time to get emotional about your favourites now, unless you are a voter or a contestant. Just witness how the parties, the contestants and the various sections of the electorate play out and enjoy as the story of MahaBangala unfolds under the supervision of the Kurukshetra War regulator, the Election Commission .
Monday, March 21, 2011
6. Concluding High Drama
Sanjay: The Fourth Phase of the Election Kurukshetra concluded today with anticipated High Drama.
Maharaja: What’s the drama?
Sanjay: In just less than three hours, the West Bengal Congress Leadership had to accept the seat sharing deal with Trinamool Congress with reluctance but forced smile on the face, following Congress President, Sonia Gandhi’s meeting with relevant central leaders of the Congress and a telephone conversation between Pranab Mukherjee and Mamata Banerjee: Mamta just offered one more constituency to Congress to rise it to 65, keeping the remaining 229 seats under her control. She did not agree to local Congress leadership’s demand for a reshuffling of the constituencies within the allocated share of 65 seats for Congress to contest. Previous day, the local Congress Chief seemed to have carried three lists with him for the consideration of the Congress High Command: one of 64 contestants with some changes in the constituencies, second of 90 contestants and a third with 294 contestants: Shakil Ahmed, Congress Central leader looking after West Bengal affairs had said that the Congress is keeping all options open including going it alone. Sonia Gandhi of course knew the capabilities of the West Bengal Congress with its various regional factions and she did not want to upset her clearly thought out plan to humiliate the CPM in its bastion in West Bengal (and Kerala) riding and strengthening the Mamata wave in West Bengal. Congress central leadership had much earlier signaled to its West Bengal Congress leaders that the Elections in West Bengal would be fought under the leadership Mamata Banerjee; but the latter failed to pick up the signal. They cried for an honorable deal with Trinamool: they ultimately got the honor they deserved from their own President on 21 March afternoon. They had to accept Mamata’s offered deal.
Maharaja: So, now this Trinamool - Congress deal will disappoint the communist alliance and make it difficult for them.
Sanjay: Do not get upset, Maharaja. Surely the advantage that the communists enjoyed till 20th is now gone. But that means that the War is going to be fiercer and therefore more entertaining to you. Do not worry about the final result - that will kill the entertainment. So far as you are concerned, if the communists win, you have nothing to lose as you lived with them for 34 years. If Trinamool- Congress combine wins, you have nothing to lose because you will soon adjust to the situation. Rather, if Trinamool does not get absolute majority by itself, you can expect more entertainment.
Maharaja: I understand that Sanjay. I would remain unaffected by the results because I am a blind person. But I have been brought up from childhood with the thought that communists are the only leftists, socialist, honest, humane and democratic in the World.
Sanjay: Being blind, you have not been able to observe what has been happening around the World as you gear up from childhood. There are many countries in the World which are ruled by communists. None of them have to be leftists as they do not allow anyone to be in the right or left as they are themselves in the centre as well as in the left and right. They are socialists in slogan: they only expect the citizens to be honestly obedient to them. They are humane only to those citizens who would never protest and willing to suffer if so required by the communist rulers. They are also democratic: they do not believe any more on left or right democracy but democratic centralism. The question of practicing open and transparent democracy to tolerate opposing views just does not arise.
Maharaja: Maybe you are right. But slavery to childhood dreams is not easy to get over. I would rather sing:
'Aazee Bagladesher Paschimaytay Ekee Oshonee,
Raajnititay Hotath El-O Netree Mamta Didimoni,
Ogo Marx Tomar Budhha Biman Ki jay Kore!
Jongolaytay kon Maoer Hana, Korche sobay Sabooj Boron
Ghasfoolayeri Santrashay hoy Laal Baameder Durgo Poton,
Ogo Marx Tomar Buddha Biman Ki baa koray!’
I am sad that the communists will have to face a tough election in West Bengal this year.
Sanjay: Be cheerful Maharaja. Buddha and Biman have made lot of efforts to stage a come back. It may not be so easy for Mamata even with the great seat -sharing deal she has made with the Congress to fight the communists. This is deal may turn out to be superficial one. Many shadow candidates would be secretly sponsored by regional chiefs of Congress to cut into the votes of Trinamool Congress, especially when in about a score of constituencies the local Trinamool activists are protesting against Mamata’s choice of contestant chieftains. Besides the communists have much larger cadre to visit every household to canvas for votes but Trinamool has few. And, with the various kinds of restrictions on public meetings using mikes and sound boxes, Mamata would be unable to hold mammoth election gathering meetings to generate the Mamata wave in all constituencies.
Maharaja: So, you think. Trinamool will have lots of difficulties with the CPM fully geared up.
Sanjay: Yes, your Excellency. The communists are still a strong force. You judge by yourself. There are numerous Bengali’s who share your childhood dreams. But for the first time, the communists will have to fight like valiant heroes. The earlier manipulations and tricks will not work now given the strong and agile Election Commission. The voters in the fringe of the committed, loyal voters would now need to be convinced and cajoled. This is what the communist are really focusing on. But the communists have lost the advantage they had in announcing the Manifesto Bomb.
Maharaja: How? The communist manifesto covers only desirable things. They have promised to lift West Bengal to the forefront in terms purchasing power, health care, education and peace. They are going to give priority to everything - agriculture and land reforms, industry to small businesses, Muslims to OBCs. The manifesto is excellent.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir: the communists’ manifesto contains desirable things and priorities: but does not contain everything that is desirable. Mamata released the Trinamool Manifesto at the same time she announced the seat-sharing deal conclusion. Trinamool Manifesto contains all that the communist manifesto promises and also contains desirable promises and priorities that the communists’ manifesto does not. Trinamool promised virtually everything that the communists did and laid out a clear programme of delivery for the first 100/ 200 days and first 1000 days. So it is more concrete. More important, Mamata has promised citizen friendly administration and police services without any political party interference. I had told you earlier that the communists shied away from making this promise. There are other important ideas of development in her manifesto. Finally, her critique of the Communist government’s performance is more focused, quantitative and authentic in terms of sources quoted, unlike the run of the mill hackneyed criticism of Congress and Trinamool we find in the communists’ manifesto. Even the Website version of the Trinamool Manifesto is qualitatively much more attractive with user friendly access features compared to the drag scanned copy of the printed version available in the website of the Ganasakti. The manifesto id not the deciding factor in elections: but this time the effectiveness of the manifesto bomb attack of the Trinamool will be far superior to that of the communist manifesto bomb.
Maharaja: That is unfortunate. But how can that be. The communists are supposed to be more savvy in these matters.
Sanjay: I agree with you but only for the past. Today, Trinamool has marched ahead with a superior quality manifesto appropriate to their call for change while the communists stuck to status quo quality in the manifesto. But that does not mean that the Trinammol election machinery would be able to make the best use of their more powerful manifesto bomb. So, Maharaja, you need not be alarmed at this stage. Let us await how the rivals play in the next Fifth phase, starting March 22.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
7. Communist Leadership Strengthening
Sanjay: Your Excellency, the War has entered the Fifth phase with the Congress announcing its lists of candidates. Both Congress and Trinamool made a few changes in their original lists of 65 constituency contestants and 129 constituency contestants respectively. Few interesting fallout of the Congress-Trinamool seat sharing deal include BJP’s decision to field contestants all over the State though it does not currently have a single seat in the State’s legislature and the decision of some potential allies (who and a section of Congress leadership thought that the Congress-Trinamool seat-sharing deal would not materialize) of the Congress to field their candidates against the Congress itself. Similarly, the SUCI, a small communist party that hates all the communist parties in the ruling Left front led by CPM, has decided to field candidates against the Congress in several constituencies – much to the embarrassment of the Trinamool party which as part of its separate alliance with the SUCI has allocated two constituencies to the latter.
Maharaja: This is funny electoral strategies. However, this should be good news to the CPM and its communist allies.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. But the communists are facing serious problems with their leader, Buddhadev Bhattacharyya.
Maharaja: How is that?
Sanjay: You would recall that I had told you that the CPM did not come out wholeheartedly in admitting its mistakes and seeking pardon of the electorate in their manifesto. But now in all public meetings, Buddhadev is admitting various mistakes committed by his party, the CPM. He said that forcibly taking land way from the farmers instead of persuading them and convincing them was a wrong policy. The arrogance and matabbari style of functioning of CPM ministers, leaders and party workers trying to intervene in the life of the common citizens was wrong. The selection of educational institutions chiefs on the basis of loyalty to CPM party was wrong. With so man wrongs admitted by the leader of the communist army, the electorate is asking the CPM party workers and leaders as to why the CPM should solicit votes for them.
Maharaja: Buddhadev should not have this. He needed a Krishna by his side.
Sanjay: He has Biman besides him. And, on land acquisition the other two top profile CPM cabinet colleagues, Nirupam Sen and Gautam Dev still maintains that for industrialization, forcible land acquisition is a necessity while being all praise for Buddhadev.
Maharaja: This should cost CPM heavily. Buddhadev seems to believe in taking credit if the CPM comes back to power and discredit the party if they lose on account of mistakes committed by party men. This is not proper.
Sanjay: You are always right you’re Excellency. But the party has inflicted lot of constraints on his authority as the Chief Minister. They did not implement his call for ’Do It Now’ to the communist party led State Government employees unions. The party expelled Somnath Chaterjee, the former Lok Shava speaker and withdrew support from the Congress Party at the Centre. The arrogant party leaders and workers defied his recommendation to be polite and humble to the citizens.
However, CPM has all of a sudden found another weakness with its Captain and other stalwart leaders.
Maharaja: What is that weakness?
Sanjay: CPM always had a strong and organized cadre that could push together thousands of supporters to gather at their big rallies to hear the leaders speak. The Trinamool on the other hand worked on the pull of their leader, Mamata, to attract crowd to their public meetings. Now, Mamata is using her pull-attraction in her long street marches to solicit voters for her candidates in different constituencies. In three separate road shows of 120-150 minutes each she covered all the constituencies of Kolkata, walking on foot something like 24 kilometers, with thousands of people following her and residents along the way waving her and exchanging greetings with her. None of the CPM leaders can imagine achieving this feat. This only enhances the popularity of Mamata as a leader of common people: they would trust a leader who can control the party rather than leaders who are controlled by party ideologues or arrogant party workers.
Maharaja: So, sad. What should CPM do now? Will this cost CPM heavily?
Sanjay: Not necessarily. It depends on how effectively CPM responds to Mamata’s innovative strategies fast enough, instead of raising silly questions about Mamata’s credibility and capacity to perform to bring a desirable change in West Bengal Government’s functioning if she gets to power.
CPM should rather concentrate on its strengths rather than revealing its weaknesses. But the party is continuing to capture the attention of the media by its weaknesses. These were not weaknesses earlier because the media ignored the. For example, earlier it was thought normal if a CPM leader or activists tried to manipulate elections, show arrogance and blame others for CPM’s failure to perform. Now it is different. If a CPM leader goes and complains to the Election Commission that despite its instructions, the police (which is directly under Chief Minister Buddhadev Bhattachryya’s charge) is not arresting peole like Mamata Banerjee against whom a non-bailable warrant is yet to be executed for 12 years, such actions make CPM look crude and foolish today to the electorate. Again, when a cabinet minister says that the Trinamool-Congress Alliance is influenced by the Government of the United States, the TV interviewer asks him if he seriously believes that people will believe in his American tale. While the West Bengal CPM arranged to make Sitaram Yechury and Brinda Karat Rajya Shabha Members from West Bengal, these two persons are not seen around while the elections battles are being fought in West Bengal.
Maharaja: What should CPM do now?
Sanjay: See Trinamool has nothing to lose if they do not come to power: so they are innovative in their strategies and actions. CPM’s thought and actions are adversely affected by the worry of losing power. They are unable to break fresh grounds in their thinking: their thoughts are along the beaten track of communists traditions, while the Trinamool gets fresh ideas from all sorts of quarters - small businessmen, farmers, workers, MBAs, artists, doctors, film stars, electronic media persons, advertising specialists, singers, composer of songs, novelists, etc.
Maharaja: CPM must now get fresh thinking and fresh blood to rejuvenate itself: merely getting some party men suspended or expelled and some party men denied tickets to contest is half-hearted cleansing.
Monday, April 4, 2011
8. Young Communist Proliferation?
Sanjay: Maharaja, there is some good news for the Communists in the sixth phase of the War: there are survey indications that they are gaining fast to reach the unbeatable stage.
Maharaja: How?
Sanjay: According Shyamal Chakrborty, a CPM stalwart, the communists’ left front just needs a 3%-4% swing in their favor to get majority in the Legislative Assembly as compared to the share of votes they had collected in the Parliamentary (Lok Shava) elections in 2009. And, there are survey indications that this swing is taking place in their favor. First, Gautam Dev, another CPM Stalwart and a minister in the ruling state government, in some of his several TV interviews, has given the results of his own impressionistic surveys of CPM organized meeting and vote soliciting processions on the roads, According to him, the magnitude of popular participation in the meetings and road shows has been unprecedented and that he has seen young men and women pouring in large numbers in support of the communist front.
Maharaja: But that s what they are supposed to tell. How far are these impressions realistic?
Sanjay: These are very experienced and seasoned CPM politicians and their impressions are likely to be quite an advance indicator of the ground reality. But, equally important, the real survey among 3600 youths recently concluded reveals that the shift is indeed taking place: 53% of the voters in the age group 18-21 are going to vote for the communists while only 51% of these youths were in favor of the communists only eight months ago and there is still three weeks to go before the elections to start. So, Shyamal Chakrabarty’s minimum target voters share to get majority.
Maharaja: That gives the communists a great moral booster in the War. But how far are these surveys reliable?
Sanjay: These are generally common use statistical games for fun and not very rigorously conducted surveys. But the results can have an impact on the voters and party activists mind. For example, this survey says that 53% of the youth now prefers the communists and 1% of the sample has changed from the TMC to Communists over the last eight months. But there could have been a survey that would have shown that the communists had a 46% share and there was a swing against it by 1% over the last 8 months. It depends on the sample size, timing of the sample and also the distribution of the sample over geographical space: the influence of parties vary from localities to localities. But irrespective of all these, the results of this survey quoted by the Bengali News channel 24 Ghanata, a channel fully committed to the communists propaganda over the last two years, is going to enthuse the communist supporters, embolden their leaders to publicise these favorable results in their public meetings to convince more youth to follow switching of others and the Trinamool supporters to announce the survey results as cooked up.
Maharaja: Then. What is the use of these survey findings really? The findings may not be consistent with the Truth.
Sanjay: Utility is only in propaganda and counter propaganda. Everyone knows that these surveys are often sponsored and biased and not rigorously done by independent agencies. But despite this, these findings become a major point of rallying and campaigning for the rival parties. It is like the old style of spreading rumors and using rumors as weapons to influence the minds of the pawns in the battles. These are very entertaining experiments with findings that may or may not capture the Truth. After all, there are 33 lakhs new voters in this election compared to the elections to Parliament in 2009 when the communists lost by just 11 lakh votes. If among the new voters, 11 lakhs are committed to the communists before they were included in the electoral rolls, then the communists are already on par and the fight would be on sharing the remaining 22 lakh new entrants in the electorate. So, it makes lot of sense to the communists to adopt this strategy of special campaigning among the new voters to fight the so-called Mamata wave.
Maharaja: So, this means that the communists will win!
Sanjay: That cannot be said with certainty. Much depends on what the unknown actual Truth is and how the fight over spreading rumors of likely Truth progresses. There could be further sponsored surveys to have a guess about the Truth of the minds of he new voters, particularly the young ones. And the communists will try to relate their wins in College student Unions’ win with the switch in the new voters in their favor. But it is not so easy to contend with Mamata’s fast developing iconic image.
Maharaja: Mamata is developing an iconic image?
Sanjay: Yes, she has shown distinct change in her personality over the last two years. And, this is getting increasing reflected in her TV interviews recently telecast by two channels. One is the Star Ananda channel which tries to show that they are neutral but appear biased in favor of Mamata’s Trinamool because of the reluctance of the CPM leaders to face the tricky questions that the anchor raises. Even in a recent interview the CPM stalwart fumbled in the interview: he said something about US hands behind Mamata-led anti-communist campaign in West Bengal electoral battle and looked silly in front of the TV as the anchor probed his allegation against US a bit further. Similarly, when confronted with the land acquisition issue, he said some thing that was in sharp contrast with the CPM Party’s latest official records on the subject that is publicly available and he said something that contradicted his chief Buddhadev Bhattacharyya. The other channels is the Kolkata TV which is very explicitly patronizing the Trinamool Congress in the same way as the 24 Ghanata goes all out to support the communists.
Maharaja: But how has Mamata done in her interviews?
Sanjay: Excellent to say the least. She now projects an image that is no longer one that is merely one of continuous and aggressive agitator against the communist establishment in West Bengal. She now gives an image of a matured politician with success of administrative performance as the Railway Minister in the Union government, with ability to envision a future Bengal with clarity and focus, as undisputed leader of vast following of party men and admirers, an able strategist and a tactician, a dedicated soul always at the spot to rescue the oppressed and the ill-fated, a well informed speaker who has tabs with intelligence information including on the how the CPM is running the state administration and also presents herself with an IQ much higher than the leaders of the CPM leaders have demonstrated on the TV. She looks capable of more humour, greater tolerance and sharper reflexes than her rivals. And, she quotes Tagore and Nazrul with ease. She continues to expose the communists’ false rumors against her and yet capable of providing foolish entertaining googlies against the communists. In her gesture and body language she appears moor confident than her rivals.
Maharaja: How far this image is going to further hurt the electoral prospects of the communists?
Sanjay: This is difficult to predict now. The battles are going to be fought over the next five weeks. Often election wars become also a war of nerves in the final stages. As in the World Cup One-day Cricket tournament that just concluded the Indian team just kept their coolest nerves during the last three matches - in the quarter-final against the reigning champions Australia beating them squarely as if the Indian’s were playing the final game, in the semi-final game against the national rival team of Pakistan beating them hands down as if the Indians were playing the final game one again, and finally in the final game defeated the contestant Sri Lanka with 6 wickets and a 10 balls to spare. The Indians played like Champions not in terms of superiority over their rivals in any part of cricketing abilities but reality in terms of having the strongest nerves that a Champion demon stares. Mamata still dominates with her nerves and the communists are showing nervousness. The communist now needs a sympathy wave in favor of the weak rival in order to beat Mamata’s Trinamool.
Maharaja: What should the CPM led communists do now to promote the ‘sympathy for the weak’ wave?
Sanjay: They could do various things by changing their emphasis in their election campaigns. For example, instead of false complaints against Mamata about her performance in delivering as the Railway Minister, they should argue that had they had so many resources at command as the Railway Minister has, they would have been able to do better - they did not have a level playing field and Mamata enjoyed an advantage. Similarly, instead of harping on Mamata’s responsibility as part of the UPA 2 Congress-led government in the failure to control inflation and corruption, the CPM should say that the Mamata enjoys the advantage of an ally of a weak and incompetent Congress-led government, while because of their anti-nuclear policy they had lost this advantage of exploiting a weak and incompetent government in 2008. Thus they are currently disadvantaged and handi-capped. Again, instead of saying that some evil artists, stage actors, retired police officials, physicians, bureaucrats, economists, TV channels, and human activists and other dumb citizens along with a part of the musclemen goons now supporting the Trinamool Congress, they should emphasise that many erstwhile supporters among artists, intelligentsia and others have deserted the communists making them weaker. In essence, they can keep all of their campaign points but express them after drenching them with a strong flavor of being afflicted by weaknesses, diasadvantages and loss of level playing field. This can draw a huge sympathy among many voters including the local industrialists who are generally comfortable with the known devil rather than welcoming a stranger like Trinamool to take the reins of the State power.
Maharaja: But this is a difficult for the communist to practice given their ego and arrogance!
Sanjay: True. But the CPM must know that giving up ego and arrogance for just one month is better than not exploiting a well-crafted well-engineered sympathy wave among voters of all types. Today, the Mamata has exposed the incompetence, arrogance, anti-people programs, bluffing and falsehood, callousness and visionless ness, oppressive and nepotism, anti-merit and anti-Bengali-heritage of the communists of West Bengal. Yet, Bengalis are still addicted to communism and the long 34 years of association with the communist rulers. They just need to be soaked in an air of a sympathy wave for a weak and lamenting CPM: then they will go all out to defeat the stronger Trinamool and resurrect the weak and the nervous CPM.
Maharaja: Do you really think this is possible?
Sanjay: Maharaja, the West Bengal electorate seldom like the winners, the arrogant, the egoistic, the merited, the competent, and the stranger without history: they always prefer the weak, the loser in a contest. But for that they have to forget their logical mind that discards all false propaganda against Mamata: a sympathy wave for the weak and apparently losing communists will appeal to the soft hearts of the Bengali electorate to vote with their hearts and not with their logical minds.
Maharaja: Will this happen?
Sanjay: The Sixth phase of the Kurukshetra will soon begin. We will find out if there is any sympathy wave emerging.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
9. Nelson’s Eyes on Bengal
Maharaja: What happened to the War, Sanjay? You have been keeping quiet for long!
Sanjay: I am sorry, Your Excellency. My vision has deteriorated because of greater distance from the War front. The War has entered the Sixth phase and a Nelson’s Eye view is just now available.
Maharaja: What is this Nelson’s Eye vision?
Sanjay: During the Battle of Copenhagen in1801, the British fleet Vice Admiral Horatio Nelson was ordered via flag signal to disengage and retreat due to the hopelessness of the situation. Realizing that any attempt to retreat through the shallow waters would result in catastrophic loss, Nelson placed his telescope to his blind eye and remarked that he could see no such signal. He then continued the battle and destroyed numerous enemy ships and was then able to negotiate with the Danes thereby saving many lives by turning his blind eye to the reality.
Maharaja: But what has that Nelson’s blind eye got to do with Bengal Kurukshetra War 310 years later?
Sanjay: Star Ananda and Neilsen Company have released the opinion poll on Bengal Election results due one month from now. Its an opinion poll signal: which side sees what reality I do not know. But someone may turn a Nelson’s eye to the signal and instead of retreating continue to fight to save face or some one may loose sight of the enemy blinded by the signal.
Maharaja: What does the opinion poll indicate?
Sanjay: Bad news for your favorite, Maharaja, The opinion polls indicates a strong Mamata Wave. If the Trinamool-Congress Alliance is adequately effective, Trinamool is predicted to win 170 seats out of the total 294 and Congress another 45 leaving only 74 seats for the ruling communists and 5 for others. Even if the Trinamool-Congress Alliance does not work effectively, Trinamool is slated to win 154 seats, just 3 short of absolute majority, with the communists trailing far behind at 93 seats.
Maharaja: That would be a great disaster for the communists and the end of a 34-year old regime!
Sanjay: Do not get disheartened Maharaja. There is still lot of hope
Maharaja: How can you be still hopeful?
Sanjay: First, it predicts the current communist CM, Buddhadev Bhattacharya is still slated to win by a big margin of votes withstanding the Mamata wave and her special efforts to defeat him through her battle lieutenant, Manish Gupta, a former Chief Secretary of the State Government who retired a decade back. This means the communist tides are still strong among the crowd. This may even help some of his current ministers to do a comeback, though the survey predicts 11 of them getting defeated in their ballot collection battles.
Maharaja: That is not enough to be hopeful.
Sanjay: Though the survey sample is large enough, it may still be less than representative of the population of electorate of 294 battlefronts: a small margin of error in vote shares could make considerable difference. The survey predicts about a 10% points in the vote share of the communists to 39%. This percentage is still high and a 5% point error in vote shares can turn the tables.
Maharaja: But do such scientifically done surveys have such high margin or errors?
Sanjay: Generally not. But there are two parts to this survey results. One is the share of votes collected by contestants and then converting them into seats (wins/ losses) from battle fronts covered by the sample to the entire population 294 battle fronts. Since we do not know the details of the sample composition the underlying turnout of voters intending to really cast votes, and statistical sampling errors margin, we cannot really be confident because the media reporting always tend to pick up sensational elements of the results,
Maharaja: But there is still a good chance that the survey results picked up the reality
Sanjay: You are right, Sir. The Survey results may be a true picture of the realty and if nothing changes during the, period between the survey and the actual poll days, communists would be out of office in a month in West Bengal.
Maharaja: Then there is very little hope for those professing to be the disciples of Marx. Even if the opinion poll based predictions are not correct in respect of each constituency battle front, the errors may be compensating in nature and the overall predictions in favour of Mamata’s dominance may come out true. There is no hope for my communists friends
Sanjay: Still there is hope, Sir. Assuming that the Survey, results are a true reflection of reality, there could be change in the reality over the weeks when the polling actually takes place and this may happen as the results of the Survey itself may cause a change in opinions and voting behavior.
Maharaja: How is that possible?
Sanjay: First, Trinamool may be carried away by the opinion poll forecasts and become complacent resulting in behavior that of party workers that could annoy the electorate. Second, the communists will work hard to make a come back. Third, the voters who enjoyed from CPM’s misrule without caring to cast their votes may turn up at polling booths to ensure that the communist patronizers come back to power and their investment in nurturing gainful relationship with the communists does not go waste.
Maharaja: Can you explain this a bit?
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. So far the communists were winning election after election with considerable margins. Many of those who benefited from the communist rule because of mutually give and take relationship did not have to bother about communists’ continuing rule. Now they are alarmed and would run to polling booths to cast their votes in favour of the communists so that the investments they had made in the communists relationship continue to yield gains. The businessman who had invested in cultivating good and beneficial relationship would contribute 3X to the communists poll campaigners against investment of X in Trinamool polling expenditure and organise their friends, relatives and servants to vote for the communists.
Maharaja: Will that make a difference?
Sanjay: Yes, such new favourable factors could turn the tables against the Trinamool. Moreover, the BJP does not like the Congress and the Trinamool to control West Bengal: they are in the opposition at the Centre and so are the communists. The communists are currently a foe of the Congress in power. Since CPM is currently an enemy of the Congress, for BJP it is clear that enemy’s (Congress’s) enemy (the communists) is a friend of the BJP: so they are fielding candidates everywhere to take a share of the anti-communist votes and weaken the strength of the Trinamool that severed their alliance with the BJP several years back.
Maharaja: Can all these factors contribute to Communists’ retaining their power in West Bengal.
Sanjay: Yes, this could. The Mamata wave is attracting those who want to get a relief from the arrogance, oppression and discriminatory apathy towards citizens not supporting the communists. But Mamata wave also generates a counter-wave to protect the known devils instead of allowing unknown devils to capture power.
Maharaja: So, you still give Communists a chance to come back?
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. But it is going to be tough. They have to do a miracle - save ministers like Nirupam Sen and Gautam Deb from defeat in constituencies that had been the bastions of the communists. The communists have to get at least 120 battle-wins even to be an effective opposition. It all depends on the Nelson eyes of the different parties.
Maharaja: Turn a blind eye to what the survey says: fight to win with all your might, my communist brethren; do not concede defeat before you have really lost. Remember Bengalis love to be communists - it is still a craze and a fashion. Trinamool and Congress will turn a blind eye to the survey results that 40% of the electorate still wants Buddhadev to be next Chief Minister, 40% found communists’ government’s performance good or very good and 39% has decided to vote for the communists. They will fight among themselves to divide the anti-communists votes along with the BJP and will finally find that they got together just 140 seats together against the communists 154.
Sanjay: Possible. But that would mean a much tougher time for the communists: they would not be able rule and perform at all.
Monday, April 18, 2011
10. Northern War Fronts and Money Clour
Sanjay: The battles in the Northern fronts just got over Maharaja, amidst black money weapons controversy.
Maharaja: How have my communist friends fared in these battles, Sanjay?
Sanjay: Reportedly, a national-level non-Bengali communist leader beneficiary of Bengali communists’ benevolence, has happily remarked that the polling this time was 75% against 85% when the last assembly elections were held and that this lower percentage of polling meant that the people were not enthused by the call for Parivartan or change against the communists. The local State communist leaders were also happy, saying that the higher voter turn out at 80% was good for the communists.
Maharaja: Which percentage of polling is the correct figure 75% or 80%?
Sanjay: It does not matter Sir. The communists are in either case confident that they will win majority of the battles fought on April 19 in the north Bengal districts as against the TMC leader Mamata’s forecast of zero win for the communist alliance.
Maharaja: That means that the communists are certain to win majority in the north!
Sanjay: Yes Sir. But the Trinamool is also certain that they will win the majority of battles in the same area because of the same reason of high voter turnout percentage. Until the results come out on May 13, all parties are certain that they will get the majority. The Election Commission has banned release of exit poll results till all the six rounds of polling are over as they thought such exit polls could influence the minds of the voters in the subsequent polls, they have not banned political parties to announce their own impressionistic exit poll results even if that may have some impact on the electorate in the successive rounds of polling.
Maharaja: That appears some convoluted thinking. Political parties can influence the minds of the voters by publicly announcing their own impressionistic exit poll results, but independent third party exit polls are bad influence and hence banned.
Sanjay: You are right, Sir. But such is the God-gifted logical consistency standards in India.
Maharaja: Sanjay, you mentioned something about use of black money atomic weapons.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. The CPM chief minister has publicly questioned the sources of huge sums of money being spent by the opposition Trinamool Congress on election campaigning including travel by helicopter by its leader Mamata. Another communist minister has answered saying that Mamata’s party is using black money. Black money can be generated but cannot be used in Elections.
Maharaja: This is unfair elections: Mamata cannot draw huge black money to defeat the communists.
Sanjay: Hold on Maharaja. Don’t you think that Black money should go more to the ruling parties in power rather than to opposition parties; unless the black money owners think that the ruling party will lose and hence try to bribe the most likely ruling party in the future. Wealthy businessmen with black money are not going to waste monies to help the losers. If more black money flows to a party, it would mean that party has a greater chance to win. In any case, such businessmen reportedly give a part of their black monies to both the ruling and opposition parties if they think that the elections would be strongly contested by both parties or alliances.
Maharaja: So, black money does not influence election results, likely election results influence the flow of black money.
Sanjay: Absolutely correct. Black money is not really a weapon of mass destruction. Political parties do not pay taxes and their accounts are not subjected to audit by renowned professional auditing firms. But allegations of use of black money are a dangerous weapon the use of which is ethically wrong in countries like India which rank among the top corrupt countries generating huge amounts of black money. You can use black money (otherwise black money loses its money character), but you cannot allege that rival parties are using black money. This highly unethical use of black money-use allegation weapon has this time been used first by the leader of the communists, Chief Minister Buddhadev Bhattacharya.
Maharaja: I now understand what you are saying. Black money is generated by the political system and political parties are supposed to be using such money. One political party therefore cannot ethically criticise other parties for having used black money. Black money by definition cannot enter the books of accounts of individuals and parties.
Sanjay: You are perfect, Maharaja. It is difficult for a political party to prove that it has not used black money because black money cannot be accounted for in the books. So, the Trinamool is going to court with defamation charges against the communist minister who had claimed to have evidence of black money being used by Trinamool Congress. As the minister suspects, the court may give an injunction against black money use allegations during the elections as this could be unfair means of influencing voters’ perceptions and minds.
Maharaja: I understand. The issue is not that some party uses black money and another does not. The issue is one of allegations of use of huge amounts of black money: public perception is that all parties are tainted by black money use and more or less tainted black colour is not material.
Sanjay: Right, Sir. The use of this weapon by the communists may prove costly and even boomerang. But Trinamool may not pursue this controversy if the communists come to their senses rather than get jittery with apprehension of losing the elections.
Saturday, April 23, 2011
11. Beating Psephology and Black Money
Sanjay: Maharaja, there is good news for you.
Maharaja: Have the communists got some wind in the sails against the high Mamata Waves.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. Buddha-Biman-Gautam trio have generated self propelled winds that appear strong. First, Guatam has dismissed the StarAnanda-battles Neilsens’ psephologists’ predictions of a Mamata Trinamool majority. The communists reportedly claim that they had done well in the Round-1 in the Northern front and that they would win close to 40 of the 54 constituencies where polling was over.
Maharaja: That is very good. Will the same trend continue in the next five rounds of polling?
Sanjay: I am yet to see the writing on the wall. But the communists have generated self-propelled strong winds to sail through the second round of battles in another 50 constituencies in mid-land Bengal. They have made it clear to the Press that the pesphsologists’ Mamata sweep as all cooked up and this would not turn voters away from the communists. First, the Star-Ananda polls has not covered all the 294 battle fronts but only about 163 of them and have not detailed their methodology so that the representative ness and appropriateness of the stratified sample survey could be examined and hence the methodology itself and the findings are highly suspect. Second, the opinion poll surveys published in the past elections have proved wrong and hence would be proved wrong this time again. So, the communists would get enough majorities to retain power.
Maharaja: This is a great fight back by the communists against rumours sponsored by the enemy camp. What do you think?
Sanjay: Sir, I do not know whether all these are rumours. Irrespective of the opinion poll survey, Mamata wave seems to be reality: how strong I would not be able to judge from such distance away from the battlefields. Yes, the communists are really fighting back. They have launched severe counter attacks on the enemy.
Maharaja: What kind of counter-attacks?
Sanjay: First, the missiles of black money scandals. First, communist chief minister, Buddha questioned as to where from Mamata’s Trinamool Congress is getting huge sums of monies for using copter’s to hop from one election campaign meeting to another? Communist front leader Biman expressed the suspicion that Trinamool Congress is getting black money of huge amounts to fund its electioneering campaign. National-level communist leaders Karat and Yechury hinted at moving the Election Commission complaining about Trinamool Congress using large amounts of black money. Finally, local communist housing minister, Guatam Deb, held presses meet with clues to proof that Mamata and Trinamool Congress amassing and spending about Rs 100 crore of black money: he advised the journalists to pursue these clues and get the proofs for themselves. He told that he had video-taped Trinamool Congress putting on fire tons of coupons in huge bags at night: these coupons are supposed to given to the people against their donations to Trinamool Congress to support them for funding election expenses. He said that the counterfoil of the coupons were kept to prove that the Trinamool Congress had collected donations of Rs 100 or Rs 500 from the common people, while in fact they had collected huge amount of black money cash from rich industrialist and businessmen. He further said that each Trinamool election candidate was given cash of Rs15 lakhs in two days in the last week March and this fact has been shared with him by one of the honest Trinamool Congress candidate who declined to take that money because he would not lose his reputation by touching black money. He said he has kept more evidence of black money use of Mamata’s party up his sleeves and will release such information when appropriate.
Maharaja: That is a great bomb Gautam has blasted on the enemy. With this he has made Mamata look like a corrupt woman tarnishing her image of absolute honesty and a poor who does not even wear a shoe but cheap slippers.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. That is indeed great. But the communists had in the process invited counter-missile attacks of black money use by the communists. Trinamool has made a secret open that the Communist Party of India (Marxists) which rules only three small states of India is the fourth largest political party in terms of assets. They have charged that many communist leaders and activists have amassed considerable amounts of wealth that were reflected in the dramatic up gradation of their and their family’s ways and styles of living observed by the people, that Goutam Deb himself has collected black money bribe of Rs 100 crore by allotting 600 flats owned by the Government of West Bengal, besides allotting a flat to his wife, and that the communist chief minister Buddhadeb’s daughter manages a non-profit agencies whose sources of funds is tainted black money. Trinamool Congress workers at one place confronted communist MP reported distributing cash to poor voters: the communist daily said that this was a planned operation by the Trinamool workers along with press photographers to tarnish the image of the communists.
Maharaja: My God, this is great shock to the communist image. Are these allegations against the communists true?
Sanjay: What is true and false is not important or relevant, Sir. The committed, loyal and blind supporters of either party will believe in the allegations made by their respective parties against the opponents. As for the rest, they do not believe that political parties do not use black money. They know that rich and wealthy people give monies to political parties in lakhs and hundreds of lakhs of rupees and few of them would like to get identified by giving donations to political parties through cheques. So, the colour of majority of funds flowing to political parties will be tainted as black. They also know that the story of coupons beings destroyed would be very common across all parties if they have to account for large sums of money as having been collected as donations. So, they would cast their votes independent of the allegations and counter allegations on black money use.
Maharaja: Then, the black money weapon fight has gone in vain with neither party gaining much advantage.
Sanjay: Your assessment may be close to Truth, Maharaja. But fights have to be part of electioneering. The communists have used the anti-American sentiment missiles also. According to Press reports quoting wikileaks the US consular office in Kolkata, West Bengal had sent an assessment cable to Washington suggesting that Mamata might be a strong factor in West Bengal and interactions with her should be pursued. So, the communists have dubbed Mamata as a pro-American, pro-rich political leader against the common man.
Maharaja: That seems interesting. What would be the impact of this weapon?
Sanjay: The Bengali’s - rich or poor, generally think of themselves as the super-intelligent race and therefore are very jealous of America being the richest country and trying to influence politics all around the World. So, this weapon should be effective among the half-educated, pond-frog mentality middle class and Bengal’s industrialist intellectual voters. The only thing is that few of them would really believe that with all their problems of economic stagnation and unemployment and headaches in Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, middle-east and elsewhere, whether the Americans would be really holding out a hand to Mamata’s a small party politicking in the small, economically insignificant state of West Bengal in India?
Maharaja: So, what does all this mean to the Round 2 polling in 50 constituencies on April 23?
Sanjay: A section of the intellectuals is very unhappy at one of the communist contestants in the districts referring to Mamata as a woman from an infamous locality and using other abusive language. The fact that Buddha-Biman reprimand has gone to the CPM leader using abusive language is not of much consequence now. Some women intellectuals have deplored this as cowardice on the part of communist men folk. Bengali gentlemen are very patriarchal and love women as equal only in love: they may not like to be ruled by women. Many men are her followers now and accept her leadership. Women see in Mamata the rise of women power. Many women whose families have suffered fro communist men’s atrocities in the past see in her a saviour, and they along with many other women would like Mamata to lead West Bengal to rule Indian political scene if for nothing else but to see the Bengali men folk realise the power of women.
Maharaja: Are you predicting a grand slam by Mamata at this Bengal Kurukshetra?
Sanjay: I am no astrologer or psephologist. I am a senior citizen whom no political party really cares. It is the younger generations who will reap what they sow today in the elections. I’m at the fag end of the day and a burden on the society. My fate is not going to be significantly altered whether Mamata or the communists come to power. No party is interested in senior citizens like me. I am just narrating to you what I observe. Be assured that there are many women in Bengal who would like to be ruled by Marxists’ men however crude or hypocrite, rather than accepting another woman as leader of the State. So, you and your communist friends have a chance of extended life. The Round 2 Elections recorded close to 85% polling. Whoever wins, the electorate and the Election Commission is sure to get the applaud aplenty.
Maharaja: Sanjay, your narration of the War is too neutral to give me comfort.
Sanjay: Your Excellency, do not lose heart. Battles and Wars are not so simple all the time. In some Wars, there is close finish and in some Wars you do not know the results much after the War is over. Bengal Kurukshetra is still young. On April 27, battles will be fought in 75 more seats. I will come back to you soon with the latest war news soon.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
12. Crucial Round Three Ahead
Sanjay: Maharaja, the War has entered the most crucial phase 10 with Round three polling in 75 constituencies in the three South-eastern districts of 24 Parganas (South), 24 Parganas (North) and Kolkata.
Maharaja: Why do you call this as Crucial?
Sanjay: For a number of reasons, Sir. First, the number of seats in these districts account for more than 25% of the total number of seats to be battled for. Who ever takes a significant lead here, gets a real edge. Second, this is the region where the communists have to put up the best of their fight back. In the Lok Sabha elections in 2009, the communists trailed in all most all the parts of these 75 constituencies. In the subsequent municipal elections, Mamata’s Trinamool made a clean sweep in Kolkata and Salt Lake. Two top ranking communist leaders, chief minister Buddhadev and housing minister Gautam Dev are fighting to get majority voters’ favour in this round slated for April 27.
Maharaja: What is your assessment at this stage, Sanjay?
Sanjay: Your Excellency, forgive me for my inability to forecast the results and tell you whether the communists will get the requisite majority to retain power in West Bengal. I can only tell you the situation as it prevails now and how the rivals are poised in their fight just before the Round3 polling.
Maharaja: Go ahead. I will make my own conclusions based on what you observe.
Sanjay: It seems that in this War the communists are making their best efforts to come back. They are putting up a brave face. But they do not seem to be confident. All their attacks have been futile and some have boomeranged. They attacked with all sorts of weaponry: ‘TMC= Black Money” has boomeranged, no one believes that Mamata is a corrupt person as the communists tried to project, no one believes that Mamata is the friend of the rich and enemy of the poor, the same is true of the communist claim that the United States of America is supporting Mamata, people have been annoyed by one communist candidate calling Mamata as a woman of fallen background and few would agree with communist assertion that the Railways are in a bad financial state and the performance of the Railway Minister has been poor.
Maharaja: Do you mean to say that all these attacks have gone in vain?
Sanjay: Not really. These attacks have failed on the general mass of voters. But these attacks have invigorated the communists’ captive voters - they have and will turn out to polling stations to cast their votes so that the communists’ do not lose any votes just because their committed supporters have realized that they cannot depend any longer on polling booth and other manipulations. So, the communists are likely to see full attendance of their committed voters in polling stations.
Maharaja: That is a positive factor: 100% utilization of captivated voters.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. And this is important this time because for the first time after 34 years, the communists are really defending against an onslaught they have never seen and there is no way to manipulate the turf managed by the Election Commission. Rather, they have difficulty in smothering the attack of the rivals.
Maharaja: Is there really any attack on the communists that they need to defend.
Sanjay: There are many. Despite the economic progress that West Bengal has made in last 34 years, the performance of the communist government has proved to dismal. Law & order position has been poor, especially in the last three years and people would tend to believe in what the Indian Home Minister Chidambaram of the Congress Party reportedly said: Governance in West Bengal has been the worst among all major states in India. That Buddhdev’s call for ‘Do it now’ has yielded nothing is recognised by every citizen. That the State finances are in doldrums is known by every citizen. That the communists did use their own armed hooligans to control territories through terror and atrocities on rural people is no more a secret after the Netai killing incident. That the main communist party depended on leaders, activists and supporters who have enriched themselves taking advantage of the party being in power and who have been arrogant, has been admitted by the party itself. The party’s program of weeding out bad elements from the party has not been transparent enough to be credible to the voters.
Maharaja: Have the rivals attacked the communists along these lines?
Sanjay: They had just to remind or help the voters recall their memory. And, that is strong enough an attack that the communists are unable to defend. The communists are beaten heavily on these grounds.
Maharaja: Your observations are generating shivers down the spine.
Sanjay: Do not worry Maharaja. Your favourite communists are still fighting with bravery and lot of guts. They can still retain their power if they can do a miraculous turn-around in the three districts that go to poll on April 27. And, remember the communists still have the most organised cadre of workers and leaders with decades of experience together unlike the Trinamool Congress. So, while the Mamata Wave could jeopardise the prospects of the communists, the strength of the organised, efficient voter gathering machinery could help neutralise the impact of the Mamata Wave.
Maharaja: How certain can the communists be of using their voter gathering machinery for ensuring a win?
Sanjay: I cannot say that. But I can give you an illustration to show how the communists can win. Just work with some off-the cuff figures like this: the committed communist voter percentage is 33; the committed anti-communist percentage is 25. About 15 percentage votes depending on who they think would be the winner, 10 percent exercise their judgments independently while another 20% do not come to vote or their votes are snatched out by political party goons. It is clear that Mamata wave cannot reduce the committed communist Percentage of 30 or increase the committed anti-communist percentage of 25. Given that the elections would be fair and free, the non-voting percentage may come down to 15. Thus the potential size of operation of Mamata effect and communist voter gathering machinery effect is 5 (genuine conversion of non-casting voters to casting voters, 15 of the in favour of winners and 10 of the independents. Let us say that the Mamata effect is quite considerable and results in 4 out of the first 5, 11 of the second 15 and 6 of the 10 independent voters go to TMC alliance along with 22 out of the 25 confirmed anti-communists votes, leaving 3 percentage points to BJP and others. So how much does Mamata alliance collect? 22+6+11+4= 43 out of 85 percent of the votes cast. How much do the communists collect? 30+4+4+1+1=40 out of 85. This small negative difference of 3 can be easily converted into a positive difference of 3 if the communists’ cadres with their organised strength can snatch 1% point more voters among each of the three classes: Converted vote casters, going with the wind and independents. So easy.
Maharaja: I understand what you are saying even if your assumed guesses are not accurate. The communists have to work hard at the margin.
Sanjay: You are right Sir. And, instead of trying to win with high difference in some areas, they must concentrate on spreading their efforts among many constituencies to win by smaller margins. Winning seats is important: the extent of margin over the defeated rival is not important. For example, in chief minister Buddhadev’s Jadavpur constituency, the communists need not have wasted much resource because the likelihood of Mamata effect changing the large positive vote bank margin in his constituency to a negative one.
But putting extra resources and efforts in the Dum Dum constituency where housing minister Gautam Dev is contesting could help him effectively counteract the Mamata wave supported by the Prime Minister Monmohan Singh who led a scathing attack on the communists at a joint Trinamool- Congress rally few Somnath Chatterjee, former speaker of Lok Shava, who was expelled by the CPM and Ashok Mitra, former Finance Minister of West Bengal, who was eased out of circulation by Jyoti Basu some twenty years ago, were brought into election meetings to invigorate the elderly communist sympathisers to cast their votes in favour of communist candidates rather than sitting at home nursing their grievance against the current ruling communist leaders flaunting their arrogance and new found riches.
Maharaja: You have at last given me some reason to be confident of my optimism about the communists retaining their power in West Bengal.
Sanjay: But if the Mamata wave turns out to be stronger than the 3 percentage point difference, communists may lose out. Watch out the Mamata Wave Effect on female voters, strengthened by lot of TV and cinema idols campaigning for Mamata’s Trinamool Congress. The fear of repression for voting against the communists has considerably gone down because of the Election Commission’s efforts and the joining of popular TV/ Cinema actors and anchors publicly supporting Mamata.
Monday, May 2, 2011
13. Mid-war Winners?
Maharaja: Sanjay, the War cries seem to be dying down.
Sanjay: Right Sir, the rival parties seem to have lost interest half the way in continuing the fights and battles. CPM has declared itself a winner after the third round of polls were over with ballot boxes of 179 constituencies sealed and packed for opening, scrutiny and counting on May 13. Mamata has been even bolder: she says the communists may at best get 20 seats out of 179 and with the remaining 159 seats with her alliance; her Trinamool Congress had already reached the magic figure of majority with 148 out of 294 total number of seats. She is now rallying to get two-thirds majority with the completion of the 4th Round polls on May 13 in 63 seats of Southwester districts of Midnapore and three others.
Maharaja: What has happened to our communists? Aren’t they trying hard to prove themselves right?
Sanjay: Yes, Sire. They are trying hard to prove they are right. The are certain now that they will be proved right at least in one of the following predictions:
(a) They will scrape through to majority to retain power despite all the rubbish of Mamata Wave and the Trinamool violence against their supporters: or,
(b) The Elections would prove to be farce with the use of huge black money used by Trinamool party and the connivance of Trinamool Congress with the a section of the media (Anandabazar Group assisted by Pradidin Sambad and Bartaman patrika), the Capitalists and richer classes and of course the Americans: the bad days of the poor people would start again after 34 years.
Maharaja: Does this mean the communists are giving up?
Sanjay: No way Sire. Be assured that they are really fighting the hardest battles for the first time in last four decades. So far they enjoyed the traditional Bengali fashion of being leftist or communists and they had all the machinery to rig elections and the larger proportion of the violent Mafia besides them. This is the first time; some Bengalis have difficulty in accepting the communists as worthy of fashionable leftist support or being a party dedicated to the cause of the poor. This is the first time they have a divided Mafia in their support with rigging master-minds weakened by the more organised and crafty Election Commission that is certainly winning against all forces that hindered free and fair elections over the last 25 years. So the communists are really fighting like great and brave heroes this time and the mass of communist party addict Bengalis are after a long time turning out to booths to cast their votes for the communists. What the communist political leaders lack this time is the certainty of the rigging and an accurate assessment of Mamata wave, particularly among the women voters. So, they have to have both predictions ready in order to be proved correct.
Maharaja: So, what do you think? Do my loved communists have a chance to win?
Sanjay: Your Excellency, I have repeatedly said that I am not able to forecast. As a Bengali, I would be able to come up with interesting analysis to show you later that “I had told you so” whatever the final election results come out of May 13. But, more interesting things are happening this time and we would be able to enjoy as these things develop over time, even after the elections.
Maharaja: What are these interesting things?
Sanjay: Major leaders on both sides might be found as having flouted Election Commission rules and might be penalised, even jailed. Besides, Mamata’s Trinamool Congress has to account for its sources and uses of funds. This in turn may require the communists to do so in a manner that passes the test of independent auditors’ scrutiny. This in turn might have repercussions all over India, in the context of large scamps and black money generation - an issue in which the Courts have become actively vigilant.
Maharaja: The political system would have great problems then ad I am sure all parties would tend to combine secretly to stop all these. But my interest currently on the fate of my communist warriors and commanders. There is no way knowing whether they would be able to retain power or not?
Sanjay: The booth-return exit poll results cannot be known until May 10th evening. So you have to wait for a week or so to get an indication. This time except of the die-hard communist supporters and a small section of die-hard Mamata protégés, no one is revealing in whose favour they have presses the buttons of the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). So, Maharaja: keep your fingers crossed and pray to Marx and Lenin at the land of pilgrimage for the communist baptism.
Maharaja: This is a Dharmayyuddh. The parties that stood for justice, fairness, freedom and development should win and those against these laudable objectives should lose.
Sanjay: You are absolutely right. Unfortunately, this time both the rival parties are standing firm on the laudable objectives. Voters have to find out which of them is more credible and dependable than others: or, just vote for a change if they are equally credible.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
14. Tensed Nerves in the midst of the War
Maharaja: I understand that the communists are certain to win after the 4th Round polls.
Sanjay: Yes Sir, the Chief Commander of the Communist Forces has declared that the Communists’ retention of power in Bengal is now an absolute certainty as they would have by now won the requisite number of constituencies.
Maharaja: That is good news. Buddha would not have said something like this unless he was fully sure. He must have had private access to exit polls of the first four rounds of polling.
Sanjay: Maybe. I am not sure. Because Anandabazar Patrika has published news of Mamata has already finalized the colleagues she would have in the Cabinet and preparing for oath-taking ceremony at the Brigade Parade ground on 18th May - 5 days after the results are declared by the Election Commission.
Maharaja: How is that possible? Communists would get the majority and Mamata will take oath with her Trinamool colleagues!
Sanjay: You are correct Sir. This is impossible. So, the communists have said that the news is essentially an advertisement sponsored by Mamata’s Trinamool Congress using black money to influence the voters in the final two rounds of polling in about 54 constituencies. They have alleged that the publication of this news by Anandabazar Patrika is a violation of the orders of the Election Commission banning publication of exit poll results before all the 6 rounds of polling is over. They have lodged a complaint to the Election Commission.
Maharaja: They have done the right thing.
Sanjay: Yes. But Mamata’s Trinamool Congress have also complained to the Election Commission that publication of the news may hurt the interests of the Trinamool Congress adversely. This list of ministers of Mamata as reported in the news reveals that the backward classes, the North Bengal MLAs have not been represented in Mamata’s likely cabinet. She has said that her party has not discussed the issue of cabinet job allocation as yet and would be done only after her party is invited to form the Government.
Maharaja: This is entirely funny. What’s going on, Sanjay?
Sanjay: Sir, tensions go up too much if the process of casting votes takes place in as many as 6rounds spread over two weeks. It seems to be a six-day cricket test match which is too long a period to cope with in these days of one-day 50-0vers each side cricket match completed in seven - eight hours or 20-20 cricket tournaments where each match is over is over in four hours. Today players need to win or lose on every-day of the contest between bat and ball. There should have been exist poll results available after each round. In the absence of such result-oriented schedule, two weeks’ of electron campaigning amidst intermittent constituency vote-casting battles is too tiring and boring resulting in nervous tensions for all including the journalists.
Maharaja: But why should the journalists do such reporting about cabinet formation even before all the rounds of polling is over?
Sanjay: Sir, imagine how boring it is to report the same things repeatedly about the response to election meetings of various leaders and the voter enthusiasm and turnout on the six different polling days. Just read, Sambad Pratidin and Bartaman reporting voters’ response to Mamata’s rallies for the two weeks and Ganasakti reporting on the response of voters in campaign meetings of Buddhadev and Gautam Deb. These are so repetitive and monotonous composition and reporting. The journalists like diversity and like to be innovative in delivering food cooked under different recipes to entertain the readers of newspapers and viewers of TV news channels.
Maharaja: So, they decide to create news about possible faces in Mamata’s Cabinet that may not come into reality! This is unfair!
Sanjay: No sir, this is really not unfair. The Ganasakti should have come out with a story on Buddhadev’s new likely cabinet on the same day.
Maharaja: Ganasakti could not have done this because it is the communist party’s own organ.
Sanjay: They could if they were innovative enough. Besides, the idea should have stuck Gautam Deb: he could have planted an idea in other news papers and TV channels like 24 Ghanta or Akash Barta. The journalist would have cooked up a nice story about Buddhadev’s next cabinet quoting unnamed reliable sources. The communists seem to be week in innovative communication: they had only been strong in using muscle power, captive police and various election rigging methods that were effective before the Election Commission outsmarted them this time.
Maharaja: I understand the journalists and media industry’s need to innovate to keep their customers’ interest in what they serve as news and the form in which serve. But why should seasoned politicians of the communists who have been in power for 34 years continuously?
Sanjay: Of the 34 years, 33 years were more or less the same. But this last one year has been different. The communists have not been popular among close to 50% of the voters. They have never tried to be popular with 75% of the population. Their strategy has been to minimise the share of voters the party needed and the percentage share of votes and yet win as many constituencies as you can by minimizing the percentage seats that the combined opposition can get. Such a strategy is considered optimal because the larger is the percentage share of the electorate you want in one’s favour, the greater is the problem of sharing the benefits of power of ruling and lower is the scope for exploiting people whom you need not depend.
Maharaja: How were they implementing this strategy?
Sanjay: To implement this strategy effectively, one just needed to follow the following tactics: (a) keep the opposition divided and play one part of the opposition against the other, if necessary by sharing some small benefits with select individuals in the opposition - this group of individuals are often referred to as B team of the communists, a team that would always keep the opposition divided and weak in exchange of the small benefits they get from the ruling communists, (b) build up a reserve force f mafia that would in exchange of monetary benefits and protection from police intervention capture territories for the communists by scaring away any group of people from opposing the communists in their exploitation business, scaring voters away from the booths through terror threats in various localities, manipulate the preparation of electoral rolls by removing the names of voters they do not trust, including fictitious names in the rolls, capture polling booths for large scale casting of votes by their cadres and by adopting other methods of election rigging. The more intensely one can do all these, the more is the likelihood of getting majority wins in the elections. So, even if one can have 30% the voters with you, you can win the majority of the seats.
Maharaja: So, why should tensions arise now in the minds of the communists?
Sanjay: This time, a part of the mafia who were no longer getting adequate remuneration/ compensation from the communists because of the growing number of such mafia men to be accommodated became anti-communists. They joined the Congress or the Trinamool Congress just to take revenge even if they do not get befits by supporting these parties. They knew how the polls are rigged and also how to counter such rigging. So, the communists were no more sure of success in achieving their basic strategy, especially because the Electron Commission had become more smart at countering election terror rigging methods of political parties. So, this time the communists needed to more percentage share of voters with them than in the past. Whether this is working out in the favor or not was not becoming evident after each round of polling. That was causing tensions to increase: communists have long forgotten to live with uncertainty. At this fag end of the polling, they are worrying about things they never did in the past. For example, the latest episode of the offer they claim they have received for Electronic Voting Machine Software manipulation in their favour!
Maharaja: What is this EVM Software manipulation proposal they have received?
Sanjay: It seems that one of the communist battle warrior chieftain received a telephone call where the caller suggested that if the communists pay him some good amount of money, he can manipulate the software in the EVM machines such that irrespective of which buttons the voters push to cast their votes, five out of ten votes will be recorded in favour of the communists and the remaining five randomly distributed among other party candidates. This would ensure assured win for the communists. The communists have lodged a complaint with the Election Commission which it seems to be investigating into this.
Maharaja: But is such software manipulation possible?
Sanjay: Do not worry about what is possible or not for the present Sir. Why is it that the communists received such a proposal after fur rounds of polls involving 242 constituencies is already over and only 52 constituencies are awaiting polls? Why did the offer not come earlier? Did the offer come to other parties earlier and they used black money to get into such a deal and then ran out of money for these 52 constituencies? How is it that this EVM software manipulation product was not marketed in other states that had polls in the month of April?
Maharaja: The communists must have sought answers to this before complaining. They are giving an impression of their being novices in electioneering.
Sanjay: Yes, Maharaja. There were more questions to be pondered about. How does one ensures that the proposed caller and his team of EVM software manipulation establish their credentials to convince the buyer of their winning game help so that the monies can be paid. How is it that only a particular communist received this proposal over phone? Say, tomorrow the Trinamool Congress complains that they had received telephone calls from a stranger proposing that the callers team can hack the EVM records containing the vote counting already done in the previous four rounds and kept under lock and key by the Election Commission and manipulate the votes already cast all in favour of the Trinamool candidates?
Maharaja: I understand what you are hinting at. The communists are so tensed that they are worried that votes in all the rounds were or are being manipulated against them through software hackers linked to the people inside the Election Commission. It may be a reflection of some extraordinary level of jittery among the communist warriors. But, Sanjay, you have given big lecture on the tensed nerves of the communists. I want to know the implications of all that you have said in more concrete terms.
Sanjay: Sure Maharaja: I will make efforts to meet your requirement. The communist knew that over the years they have developed a strong addiction to vote only for the communists among 30% of the people. But over the years, they have allowed many voters to become loyal anti-communists - these people have suffered the most under the communist rule. This section may now constitute about 35% who will not vote for the communists. So, election campaign is now meant for 40% of the voters. Of this 15% would not turn up at the polling stations. Thus, the real issue of the remaining 25% of the voters. Rigging could have ensured that 15% of this gets clicked in favour of the communists. But this time rigging does not seem to be working out. So, uncertainty has increased. This is causing tensions.
Maharaja: But tensions are bad. While you are engaged in a War, you must be absolutely cool.
Sanjay: You are right Sir. But it is difficult. And, therefore tensions lead to bad actions and that in turn cause further worries and tensions. For example, you bring allegations of using black money against you and the same allegations get inflicted on you. You use abusive language because of tensions that lead to widespread protests through newspapers and that causes more tension in your mind about losing votes. Your cadres in the process start loose talks about throwing out useless leaders after the elections. These lose words get picked up by the media to spin new damaging stories. That in turn leads to worries and further loose talks. Your tensions increase all the more. This seems to be happening to your communist friends, Maharaja, Sir.
Maharaja: But the same tensions should emerge among the Trinamool and the Congress parties.
Sanjay: Surely. All parties are afflicted by this problem of keeping themselves free from tensions. But, this is happening for the first time to your communist friends.
Maharaja: So, I should not worry about this tension factor. This by itself would not alter the outcome of the War.
Sanjay: You are right Sir. These tensions and actions and reactions under tensions are a source of entertainment for the voters and us. We should enjoy these. We are entitled to our entertainment and should not let them go waste thinking about consequences of these tension-filled action-reaction War.
Maharaja: I agree with you Sanjay. I now see the actions of Mamata, Buddhadev, Gautam Deb and the different political parties in a different perspective. They are doing their jobs as they capable off given their inherent properties and tendencies including tension-prone nerves. We are to entertain us witnessing what they are doing. After all, the outcome of the War is not in our or their hands, whether you get Gautama Buddha’s preaching of love and pace or Mamata’s love and affection or both in certain measure.
Monday, May 9, 2011
15. Fight Ends for Ballots, Begins Over Likely Results
Sanjay: Maharaja, the Round 5 polling for 38 battle constituencies is over. The fight for ballots for the remaining 14 fronts in the Maoist infiltrated forest areas is also over - the people here will cast their votes on Tuesday 10 May.
Maharaja: How many of the 280 battles have been won by the communists? Any idea?
Sanjay: The exit polls would be available from all TV channels and newspapers, except perhaps those owned or working for the communists, who are yet to indicate their firm program on exit poll result release. All others will be releasing the likely results on May 10 evening. May 11 & 12 are listed for entertainment on discussions on the likely results predicted by exit polls. This is the most difficult period for the politicians if they are not sure of what the actual ballot counting will reveal and yet have to justify why they think that their parries will get majority and how much more than the rivals. And, within a day, the final outcome would be available to show how good the politicians has been in forecasting the peoples’ verdict.
Maharaja: So, you mean to say that we cannot get any idea till the exit polls are released on 10th evening/
Sanjay: No Sir. You can get an idea now about what the exit polls are likely to reveal.
Maharaja: How do you get such an idea? What is your source?
Sanjay: Sir, my sources are the newspapers and TV channels - the have started quoting assessment of different political parties. Thee may not be authentic but based on leaks by party officials.
Maharaja: Let’s get the different so-called political party field assessments.
Sanjay: There are three versions as usual: Conservative, Optimistic and Surprising. And, there are two sources of assessments: Communists and Congress-Trinamool combine. I have a suspicion however that politicians may have taken into account the glimpse’s of exit poll result secrets they could privately access.
Maharaja: Just tell me the numbers now.
Sanjay: First, the Communists’ assessment. The conservatively estimate that they would get 152 seats - just 4 more than necessary to get majority to form Government. The communists are optimistic of getting 170 seats. And they would be surprised if they fail to get less than 230 seats.
Maharaja: Good show. Now about the Rivals’ assessment:
Sanjay: The rivals have an optimistic projection of 252 if the Mamata Wave had been really strong among women voters, Muslim voters particularly in the 24 Parganas and the Singur-type pockets in Midnapore, and among the new entrants to the electoral rolls. Their conservative estimate is that they will win 230 seats. They would be surprised if they win less that 200 seats and Trinamool alone wins less than 170.
Maharaja: Who would get surprised? I think there is a possibility that all will be surprised: say the communists get 130, Trinamool gets 145 and Congress gets 19. Then, the communists can still be in effective power.
Sanjay: You can get your surprise in just 4 days. Please be a patient, Maharaja.
Maharaja: What about the charges of black money use, the impending rise if gas and fuel prices, continued high inflation rate, etc? Are these not going to hurt the rivals of the communists?
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. All these and other factors have worked themselves out. Current assessments are just the feeling of the politicians about what the voters have done. Voters may not have revealed the whole Truth that would be known only on May 13. But that may not be the end of the Bengal Kurushetra.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
16. Exit Polls Exit Communists
Maharaja: What happened in the Final Sixth Round polling, Sanjay?
Sanjay: The polling in 14 constituencies supervised Election Commission’s officials with security support of 35 central and state government security police personnel for each voter has confirmed the success of the Election Commission to ensure a free and fair democratic election in a by and large peaceful environment in West Bengal for the first time in two decades, if not for the first time in five decades. Between 1960-1977, the Congress and Naxal-Maoists could not allow Bengal to exercise their voting rights freely and fairly without fear and from the eighties to the first decade of the second millennium; the communists would rig the elections and drive non-loyal voters out of electoral rolls and polling booths through a reign of sponsored terrorism. As far as elections are concerned, the hero of this election in 2011 is the Election Commission: they have given a sea burial to the political forces that developed the science and art of capturing votes and voters by mafia power - I hope these forces and practices have met their grave in the Bay of Bengal - never to return again.
Maharaja: Sanjay, you are a novice. Political wars has and will always be the bed rock of all unfair means, manipulation, falsehood and brutality: there is nothing unfair and foul play in Wars. Elections are political wars. This time the Election Commission has outwitted the politicians and the election result manipulators - but next time they are likely to be outwitted - the desire to win elections is so strong that wits flock to politicians to help them win the elections by hook and crook. You stop your lecture on democracy and let me the progress of the Kurushetra War. Do exit polls show any hope for my dear communists?
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. There is lot of hope. First. results of exit polls conducted in 9 districts by 24 Ghanta Bengali News channel that has 100% of the market share of communist viewer segment (probably, even Ganasaktui, the communists’ popular daily is yet to reach 100% readership in the communist-readership market segment), shows that 47 would go to the communists, 38 would be bagged by Trinamool- Congress combine, 3 to others and in the remaining 11 the exit poll does not indicate a clear winner. Thus, if the 9 districts’ 99 seats are any indicator, we can hope that the communists will definitely bag 141 seats and the Trinamool Congress combine 114. Of the 30 or so seats where the exit polls may not indicate clear winners, the communists need to be lucky to win only injust7 seats to get majority. This shows that the communists can really retain power, even with a razors edge majority.
Maharaja: What about other exit polls?
Sanjay: Before those, Maharaja, you must know what Gautam Deb the main TV face of the communists had said about such opinion polls and exit polls. Having described the performance of the Election Commission as ‘Moor or less, Well done’, he has said that he believed that exit polls are scientific but often their predictions are wrong. So, this applied science is not really credible. And most importantly he continued to believe that the communists would get majority in the West Bengal Assembly for the eighth time in a row.
Maharaja: That is good. But does he not think the 24 Ghanta exit polls credible even though they are scientific?
Sanjay: Probably, he does not think that the exit polls have a reasonable enough probability of proving correct: because often they have not found to be wide off the actual results by big margins. So, maybe he thinks that the communists would exceed majority by a big margin wining in total close to 170 seats out of the 294.
Maharaja: That’s great. Do you think there is any chance of Gautam Deb going wrong and the communists failing to retain majority?
Sanjay: No, Sir, I am most incompetent to judge the chance of Gautam Deb going wrong in expecting the communists retaining majority. But as many as seven exit polls (other than the incomplete 24 Ghanta one) predicts the failure of the communists to retain power, The maximum that these polls give seats to the communists is 122 and the minimum 57, the average being 76 or so. So, there is no chance according to the seven exit polls for an eighth communist dominated government in West Bengal. So, if you want to calculate the chances of Gautam Deb being correct, given that there are two possibilities, the a priority probability is 50%. Now you can adjust the a priori probability in the light of additional information available from these exit polls, the chances reduces to say about 16%.
Maharaja: That is a fairly low chance.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. Fairly low chance. But an event with a low chance of 1% does take place over repeated trials. And, it may happen in the first trial itself. So, hope for the best for the communists but prepare for the Worst.
Maharaja: But what does the exit polls talk about Trinamool?
Sanjay: Four of the exit polls predicts seats for Trinamool as follows: 128, 152, 180 and 181 that gives an average of 160 - absolute majority by a decent margin to form government on its own. If you take all the seven exit polls, the Trinamool-Congress combine should get a minimum of 187 and a maximum of 225 - roughly two-thirds to fur-fifths majority).
Maharaja: That’s a sweeping out of the communists, my God!
Sanjay: Yes, the probability of that happening may also be low.
Maharaja: Who will then lead the communists?
Sanjay: Maybe some of the leaders will win but the followers would desert or become inactive. Exit polls show. Buddhadev Bhattacharya may lose ad so will Asim Dasgupta and Nirupam Sen. According to one poll Gautam Deb will scrape through, according another he might lose by a small margin. But, why Sir, do you worry about which leader will win or which will win? In just 72 hours from now, we will know the final results. Just hold on and enjoy the entertainment on the TV about the relevance of communists in India, with exit polls showing the communists defeat in Kerala.
Friday, May 13, 2011
17. Sweet Dreams The Night Before Results
Maharaja: Sanjay, I have been suffering Nightmares for so many days now. This has started spoiling my day time also after the exit polls predicting disaster for my dear communist comrades and the consequential disaster that Bengal may face if the Trinamool-Congress combine starts ruling the State.
I need some strong medicine from your words today so that I can enjoy sweet dreams this last night before the election results start pouring; otherwise I won’t be able to face the TV on the unlucky 13th morning.
Sanjay: Maharaja, you deserve a good night’s sleep with sweet early morning dreams to give company to millions of Bengal residents glued to the TV as progress of counting are reported from various counting centers and the political analysts start interpreting the results.
Maharaja: So, now that there is ceasefire this evening, share with me a good, strong medicinal verbose to become happy even if for a night.
Sanjay: Sir, you have been too attached to your communist comrades because of your long association with them. You still have strong desire that the communists retain power in Bengal. That is why the unfavourable exit polls have affected your mind and body so adversely. You are not able to use your intellect correctly. You have not been able to keep your emotions under control. Fears are pulling you down. This has been happening to all Communists in Bengal, their supporters here and the party colleagues dependent on West Bengal and Kerala to justify their existence. This is silly.
Maharaja: Why do you call this silly?
Sanjay: If you experience nightmares in apprehension of a communist defeat, it is silly. If your comrades say that the useless, probably motivated, exit poll results that have proved repeatedly wrong in the past are being deliberately highlighted by the media to undermine the morale of the communists’ party members and supporters at the grass-root level, they are being silly. You people do not believe in God and yet are dedicated to the uplift of the believers, specially those among them who are economically poor. This is good. But you do not have to a believer to read, understand apply the principles of Gita. These may have been depicted as coming from the human incarnation of God, but these are manufactured by the best brains available at the time they were manufactured. The principles of Gita in the more non-religious, and, intellectually scientifically far more solid than Karl Marx’s scribbling out of frustrations with the social order as prevailing at his time and drove him out of his native land.
Maharaja: Now do not criticise the only scientific, infallible theories of Marx in a round about fashion the way you are doing. It hurts us when you show Marx as inferior to some poet who grafted another poor poet’s lecture into Mahabharata at the Kurushetra session.
Sanjay: Believe me Sir; I do not intend to hurt you. I am trying to get you out of the mental and intellectual disease that you created for yourself. Just listen carefully to me.
Maharaja: Okay. Go on.
Sanjay: You know that there is no way we can change the results that are going to come out tomorrow. These are already cast ballots contained in the single, secured database of each Electronic voting machine used in the elections. So, whether the communists or Mamata will win has already been decided: it is only that you do not know what these results precisely are. So, why should you lose sleep over what you cannot control or alter?
Maharaja: I should not but I am not able to do so.
Sanjay: Yes, this is not covered by Marx’s writings. So better try to find out yourself. How long will you have the association with your dear communist comrades or Mamata? Not for long as you cannot avoid death. Why do you have to remain attached to the future of the communists? Have such attachment has succeeded in stopping Soviet Russia from breaking up or the Chinese from exporting cheap goods to the USA to keep their labour employed, giving loans to the US to fight wars everywhere and support Pakistan in her attempts to organize terrorist attacks on India?
Maharaja: One day, the entire World will become communist.
Sanjay: Maybe. But one day the entire planned may get destroyed or human species may become extinct. So, why get attached to such one day salvation like the believers of God. Better give up such fairy tale dreams from your system. Look only at more shorter time horizons.
Maharaja: Okay. I give up.
Sanjay: Fine. Now you automatically give up your attachment to communism or the communists.
Maharaja: How? I do not give up my attachment?
Sanjay: You will still continue to dream that the communists will rule Bengal for ever? Why? at least of 40%-49% of the people in West Bengal always voted against the communists. You do not have any feeling for these people? Are they not your countrymen and human beings?
Maharaja: Yes, they are also my loved ones. Their hearts should also be won over by my communist comrades.
Sanjay: That is good. But do the communists have to win over all your countrymen by being in the power to rule them?
Maharaja: No. But if they are in power it helps to bring benefits to poor people and win them over.
Sanjay: How significant is the percentage of population your comrades have been able to win over in 34 years? Have not poor people complained of suffering from your comrade’s rule? Are you not aware of communist mastans and their protégé businessmen/ women families taking over land from poor farmers in Rajarhat, Singur, Nandigram and oppressing people elsewhere?
Sanjay: Yes, I am aware. But if you are in power such things happen here and there. You should ignore such things in a broader perspective.
Maharaja: You are not blind merely because you cannot see through your eyes. You have made yourself blind intellectually and mentally to ignore such atrocities on the poor. How can you ignore the State helping a rich Hindu father intervene in the lives of a young family of his daughter legally married to a Muslim boy who after severe harassment meted out to him was found dead along the Railway track? Do you see this as part of your Communist vision as such things happen?
Maharaja: No, this is bad. o communist can allows such things to happen whether in power or not. My comrades failed to protect the young couples because they were in power and did not care about such stray incidents. It is not correct.
Sanjay: So, if the communist comrades are out of power for some period after enjoying power for 34 years in a row, why should you be worried? Cannot communists do good while being out of office? Cannot they do their cleansing (Suddhhikaran) by staying out of power voluntarily for some years?
Maharaja: Yes, they can and probably should. Power has been both used and abused in 34 years. Abuse of power is a malignant disease. Comrades should go for radiation therapy and surgery by being in the hospital that they do not have control - that is remaining out of the powers of the State.
Sanjay: So, you are no longer concerned with your comrades losing power as you love all poor people who still suffer and needs to be won over without the use of State power.
Maharaja: Absolutely, I am comfortable with these thoughts at least for now. I am feeling better.
Sanjay: Now, you must get the last dose of the medicine to get fully liberated to enjoy your TV entertainment tomorrow.
Maharaja: Give me the last dose before I get into sleep.
Sanjay: Sure, Your Excellency. Look these exit polls however scientific are most prone to wide errors. So, you do not believe in them: they are as good as your comrade’s enemies’ wild guesses, hiding their day dreams and media created hypes. They become true once in a while by fluke, not because of their scientific methods.
Maharaja: But all the seven exit polls predict Mamata’s win and the other one is unsure about who will win.
Sanjay: All are exit polls and all are subject to the same problem of measurement/ observation and sampling errors that makes it virtually impossible to find the Truth. There are many factors that may make the poll caster wrong this time. The percentage of voting has been significantly higher this time, especially if we take into account that incidence of false voting, voter entry barriers and other forms manipulations and rigging has been considerable reduced. The newly enrolled voters form about 10% of the electorate. The women voters have cast more votes this time. Your comrades have after a long time done a serious job of contacting voters and soliciting votes. The voters committed to communists did not take any chances by staying away from the polling booths.
Maharaja: What does all this mean?
Sanjay: All this means that exit poll under the radically different circumstances will lead to forecast results that can be wide off the actual results. Most important, there was a strong Mamata Wave, but the way this has been hyped by the media, could lead to a different pattern of lying in interviews than in the past. When there is strong hype, many people lie to hide the fact of their going against the wind. In which way the samples has got biased is impossible to guess and even know later. So, there is no reason to believe any of these forecasts being accurate just because most of them forecast similar results.
Maharaja: That is a great comfort. I am now fully cured. I can now have a good night’s sleep, have a quota of sweet dreams, no nightmares and enjoy the TV entertainment as an unbiased viewer.
Sanjay: Good night Sir. All the best for the 13th May.
Maharaja: Good night.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
18. War Ends Hoping Return of Democracy
Sanjay: Maharaja, the War has come to an end with the Election Commission announcing the winners for each of the 294 constituencies. I hope you could enjoy the entertainment that the TV channels provided throughout the day on 13th May.
Maharaja: Yes, I did enjoy the entertainment. Thanks you for the medicines you gave me on the previous evening. I realise that unless one rids oneself of expectations and emotional attachment, one cannot really enjoy the entertainment that elections generate. You helped me. Thanks again. But I am sorry for the communist comrades who could muster only 63 wins as against 185 of Trinamool and 42 of their election alliance partner the Congress. They seemed to have been shocked by the thumping drubbing by the voters and never had imagined that their dream of the Eighth successive Left-front Government shattered within 120 minutes of the counting of votes.
Sanjay: Yes, the Chief of Command, Buddhadev fell along with his stalwart Lieutenants like Nirupam Sen, Gautam Deb and Asim Dasgupta among 26 of his ministers who lost.
Maharaja: My comrades should now try to learn lessons from the course of events and the impact of responses to the emerging environment over the last decade and more.
Sanjay: I am sure they will. They have accepted the peoples’ verdict with humility and are going to review their electoral debacle, find out the reasons for their failure to get peoples’ support and adopt corrective steps.
Maharaja: I am not so sure. I do not see them really prepared as yet to do all these with any seriousness. Their arrogance prevents them to accept the Truth. of their inherent failings, weaknesses and incompetence.
Sanjay: How do you say so?
Maharaja: Those who accept people’s verdict against them do not shout on the roof top that they accept the peoples’ verdict. Saying so is an insult to democracy because a political party in a democracy is supposed to have given up the right of not accepting the peoples’ verdict. Of course if the party has reasons to believe that the elections were manipulated and rigged, they will say that the election has been rigged and manipulated and hence the election results do not reflect the people’s verdict. But this is not the case here. So, why they have to say that they are accepting the verdict? It reflects only a reflection of their arrogance.
Sanjay: Arrogance of stating that they are being kind enough to the people who have voted against them and for the rival party that has own.
Maharaja: The communist comrades continued arrogance is a disgrace to democracy. It also shows that the communists of Bengal are interested in using democracy only for their own interest: democracy by the dictates of the party, by the dictatorial coterie of the party leadership and for the party to decide what is good for the party if it is in power and democracy of violent agitation by the opposition party for sabotaging the interest of the country. They do not want and, capable of, violent revolution to usher in communist era but willing to manipulate democracy to establish communist dictatorship by winning political elections.
Sanjay: But they say that they believe in inner party democracy and will find out what went wrong that there was a poor response to the voters to their campaigns.
Maharaja: That is the standard methodology of the communists to tell the people that the people have acted foolishly by voting Mamata’s Trinamool to power with close to 80% majority for their alliance.
Sanjay: But they are arranging for assessment of the feedback on the causes of their defeat from all districts of West Bengal and deliberate on the most important reasons for their failure.
Maharaja: That is a hoax. They will do all these drama and then produce an assessment note that would be leaked to the press and publicised by their own papers like Ganasakti. Everyone knows what they are going to say in their assessment.
Sanjay: How do you know what they are going to say in regard to their great beating?
Maharaja: If you are trained in Marxism, you know how to explain anything that happened happens and will happen. There is a standard communist software program for that: you just have to add currently usable English along with the spice of Marxist jargon. Just note what they are going to say.
1. We have lost because only a 48% part of those who voted for the Evil forces: 42% of the voters wanted the communists to come back. The new voters were about 10% of the population with whom they somehow missed to communicate with and some voters from minority community and the women were fooled by the Trinamool Congress led by a cunning woman without any useful education and culture, the communists lost 8% of the votes. If they had got these votes, they would have won the majority of the seats with 50% share of votes.
2. These 8% of the voters really did not understand what they were doing: they got influenced by clever marketing of the conniving evil forces of Trinamool and Congress using large scale black money to allure voters by false propaganda. The party machinery tried its best to overcome this false propaganda against the communists by using most of the print and electronic media. The evil forces also killed the grass-root level communist workers in large numbers through violence.
3. The false propaganda led to an incorrect interpretation of the communist ideals, ideology, policies and performance. The people could not understand the good things they had done by distributing 1.3 lakh acre of land to the landless farmers, by trying to bring Tata’s Nano Car project and foreign investment led chemical hub as a part of the communist strategy of resurgence of industry in West Bengal., by their use of the combined forces of police and harmad forces to drive away the Maoist terrorists, by their pro-poor policies to make West Bengal one among the Indian states leading in terms of per capita GDP growth, provision of health and education facilities to the children of West Bengal and expansion of road and housing infrastructure, by their withdrawal of support to the UPA-1 government to keep the dreaded, capitalist suckers like the America at bay.
Sanjay: You are right. They have been saying all this over the last several months. They believed that people were not appreciating their good work because bulk of the voters were not fully aware, were misled by the Trinamool Congress and got lured away by black money and threat of violence. That is interesting analysis. but already known. Will there be any new highlights?
Maharaja: Yes, they are going to say that the Election Commission had turned a blind eye to various kinds of manipulation and poll regulation violations. They will say that because of 34 years in power, bad elements had crept into their parties, tarnishing their image in the minds of voters. But they are only and real friends of the people and have the competence to deliver good to the people. It is unfortunate that the people brought the evil to power and the people will soon realize this. Then the people will have to bring the comrades back into power. In any case they are not going to allow the winners to rule by opposing with all their might to stop them from pursuing anti-people policies that are causing and will cause inflation, unemployment, communal tensions, violence and all round sufferings to the people along with American exploitation. But all this are a joke for the people and a serious belief by the communists.
Sanjay: So, they will continue with their Marxist jealousy, hatred with arrogance, vengeance and inciting violence.
Maharaja: That is what they will try. They are failing to realize that West Bengal is a small part of a Sovereign Democratic State of India and that West Bengal is not a full-fledged State like Egypt or Libya where Mubarak and Gaddafi style repression of peoples’ revolt is impossible to be organised by the ruling dictators. They are not correctly reading the current history and trends: they just will not be able to return to their old techniques of fooling the public as they could do half a century ago.
Sanjay: What do you recommend to your beloved communist comrades who failed miserably in fair and free elections with close to 85% voter turnout?
Maharaja: It is high time they open clean up their ideals, ideological beliefs, and reluctance to see the Truth and Reality. They should shake themselves from day-dreams and night-mares and their addiction to snobbery and first accept the facts that emerged over the last decade. They should admit that they have failed in so many ways because of their incompetence and arrogance:
1. They had pursued economic policies that delivered very little to the West Bengal’s industrial and economic regeneration.
2. They had destroyed the State’s finances with gross indiscipline and created a huge debt burden.
3. They had destroyed the quality and education in West Bengal with foolish experiments like banning English for primary education and systematically replacing top educationist talents in the management of education by those who are loyal to communists irrespective of their talent and competence.
4. They had been far from honest and were corrupt to the extreme by following nepotism and favouritism everywhere abusing the powers of the State.
5. They had made the Police forces subservient to the cause of the Party and made the police work as per the directions of their party functionaries at all levels.
6. They had developed and raised a cadre of armed goons to terrorise people and establish the rule of party functionaries in various localities and capable of large -scale rigging elections in various dishonest and unfair methods ways so long as the Election Commission did not find out effective solutions to make it virtually impossible for them to continue their dishonesty.
7. They had failed to remove dishonest, corrupt people for the party and from the association of corrupt parties.
8. They had insulted and systematically discriminated against those who do not sympathise with or do not subscribe to Marxist ideologies.
9. They had wrongfully used physical force to repress farmers and others who opposed their policies and practices.
10. They had been arrogant enough not to admit their mistakes, failures and incompetence in different spheres of party activities and government administration.
Sanjay: That is a long list of embarrassing admissions.
Maharaja: The list would be longer. But I stopped at 10 because in any case the communist comrades are not at all trained to admitting their failures, weaknesses and incompetence. If they were, they would have made a list of 20 such points, deliberated in the meetings of their Committees and made their views public saying they plead guilty or otherwise on each of these points instead of beating around the bush and trying to say they have done better than other States and other political parties.
Sanjay: What do you think will happen if they do not do as you recommend.
Maharaja: They will increasingly lose relevance in West Bengal and Indian politics. If they do not substantially reform themselves, completely cleanse the party from arrogance, corruption, violence and manipulation, and do not substantially upgrade the analytical and empirical basis of the ideological perspective that would attract the Trust of the people who would prefer not to show allegiance to Marx, Lenin and Mao and those Indians who value individual freedom and liberty. My comrades will then struggle to exist by converting the communist parties into run-of-the-mill Indian political parties of the second tier behind the first tier parties like the BJP and the Congress. This is the writing on the Wall.
Sanjay: You mean they cannot hope to come back to power in West Bengal if they do not radically transform?
Maharaja: No. They can very well return to power. But they have to await serious failure in performance of the Trinamool and Mamata. And, in that case they will continue to be another political party of incompetence and dishonesty that they had been for the last two decades or so. The 2016 and 2020 Elections in West Bengal will not then be another Kurushetra between the evil and the electorate but Shumbhu-Nishambhu war between two rival forces of Evil.
Sanjay: That means the Bengal Kurushetra has come to an end.
Maharaja: Yes, if Mamata fails to deliver what the majority of voters desired: not to have an incompetent, corrupt, oppressive and arrogant party to rule over Bengal and pull down Bengal in the League of Indian States that the communists have been successful at. We will know soon within 200 days at the earliest and 1000 days from 20th May 2011 - the beginning of the Phase 17 of the current Kurushetra War between the forces of Evil and the oppressed people at large who hoped Mamata will
deliver the Good.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
19. Bengal Breathes in Fresh Air of Governance At Last
Sanjay: Maharaja, the first non-communist, left government has taken office in West Bengal.
Maharaja: I know that the people were glued to the TV on 13 May from 9 AM to midnight when the portfolios of new ministers were announced. Great show. Now I appreciate what you sang 3 months back and I was very annoyed then.
Sanjay: What song did annoy you?
Maharaja: Yes, you sang something like this:
‘Aajee Bongodesher Paschimete A Key Ashonee
Kothaa Hothey Udoy Holen Mamata Ramani,
Ogo Marks Tomar Budhha Biman Key Jay Koray.
Tomar Baam Kaanpay Ghaspooler Santraashay Poray.,
Ogo Marx Tomar Doorgo Ebbar Bhenge Na Poray!.
I was annoyed because you suggested the downfall of my communist comrades.
Sanjay: But some of my communist friends liked my use of words like Ashoni and Santrash while referring to Trinamool. My anti-communist friends had remarked that it was a good attempt to make a parody of a Tagore song on Bengal.
Maharaja: Yes, they might not have noticed the underlying direction of your parody and enjoyed the entertainment part. But today I realize that you were trying to capture the direction of the Kurushetra. I guess you would now have a new parody to sing.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. The 13th May TV shows and live reports led me to modify the parody.
Maharaja: Sing the new one.
Sanjay: Here you are:
‘Aajee Bongodesher Hridoy Jeetay Mamata Romonee,
Didi Saee MukhyoMantri Roopay Asheen Holay Aaponee.
Ogo Marks Tomar Buddho Bimaan Laajay Naa Moray.
Tomaar Doorgo Ebaar Bhanglo Jobay Mamata Jhoray.
Ogo Marks Tomar Mathaa Khutay Baam Naa Moray.
Daan Haathay Taar Kajayer Nishan, Baa Haath Bhulay Baam Kirton
Dooee Chaonay Drooto Gati Chotaay Aamlaa Mahakaron.
Ogo Marks Tomar Bhakto Mookhay Kothaa Naa Soray.’
Maharaja: You seem to bowing down in prayer to a new heroine! What do you want to suggest now with this new parody?
Sanjay: In the next six months will see a new battle of wits between Mamata with her extraordinary pace and chasing and the sleeping Bengali ‘Hocchay Hobay’ work culture of 60 months for a year. The other battle would be between Mamata’s agile determination to sweep out all illegitimate weapons and the communist need to replenish the stocks in their secret armories and garrisons for the future proletariat’s armed revolution against the stooges of capitalism. Your communist comrades could not stage a come back through democratic process and they cannot just rely on democratic process waiting for Mamata’s failures to accumulate: now they have no alternative but to usher in the armed revolution to regaining power of the State. It is very difficult at this stage to predict when and how the communists would get frustrated enough to start their fight again.
Maharaja: How are the followers of the communists’ behaving.?
Sanjay: They are currently keeping a low key profile, avoiding confrontation in public and hoping that the leaders will show the way sooner than later. The leaders are willing to wait for suitable conditions to arise to lunch their offensive. They hope that these conditions will appear soon.
Maharaja: How will such conditions arise?
Sanjay: The seeds of Bengali reversal (resistance) from Path of Change (Parivartan) that Mamata wishes to tread are already there in Bengali characteristics. Just wait for a while to see how Mamata’s ministers become sick unable to work such long hours week after week and year after year. This together with the lazy bureaucracy and the general govt. employees will realize that Mamata is treading a path of huge toil and personal sacrifices. As they fail to keep pace with Mamata, she will become progressively frustrated and all the more step again and again on the accelerators. This will result in failure to deliver what Mamata promised and continue to promise to radically change the face of West Bengal. As failures become perceptible and the Mamata’s own people and the bureaucracy starts falling sick, the communists will get their new opportunity to win over more and more people. Mamata will then face weakening base of support for change that forces people to work hard with agility and competence on a sustained basis with commitment and personal sacrifices. Bengalis are not used to this.
And, the conflict between the hurricane like pace at which Mamata wants and needs to work for installing change and the Bengali work culture and work infrastructure was apparent on the very first day of Mamata’s government. She commented on the infrastructure at the Secretariat. She also said that she will value effectiveness of work performance from government employees irrespective of the political colour of individuals.
Maharaja: You are raising hopes for my communist comrades.
Sanjay: No, sir. I am not raising any hope. I am just pointing out the opportunities that your comrades are banking upon to come after the initial euphoria over the installation of the new government dies down.
Maharaja: So, this Kurushetra will not be able to achieve the results that the people desired.
Sanjay: That is just one possibility of the current revolution through ballot boxes failing. But I must also point out the other possibility. Mamata has grown in her leadership effectiveness over the years. Her exposure to administration and dealing with cabinet colleagues, bureaucrats, party workers and the public has been qualitatively far better than all of your communist comrades. She has worked under four different Prime Ministers. And, she is a great learner. Her intelligent quotient and emotional quotient are strong. She personally works with very high missionary zeal that is highly contagious, communicable, contractible, transmittable and transmissible, especially among the younger people. So, Mamata may be successful quick time to get the crucial minimum critical mass of competent, agile, diligent and supportive cabinet colleagues, party workers and activists, bureaucrats, government employees and advisors. Once this critical mass develops, it would be difficult to stop Mamata on her path of bringing about the required change in work culture, work attitude that is capable of delivering performance and results expected by the people at large.
Maharaja: If this second possibility has a strong chance of materialising, what should my communist comrades must do now?
Sanjay: Last time you had already mentioned what they are supposed to do now: publicly admit their misdeeds, deficiency, ignorance, incompetence and gross failure in performance. Second, get real exposure to what is happening in the country elsewhere and in the World outside so as to get out of the frog-in-the-well syndrome and adopt a broader perspective that enables them to embrace change before changes destroy them, Third, gather competence, capability to work harder for productive results for the people. If Mamata succeeds in her mission of radical change for West Bengal, your communist comrades will need to substantially upgrade them in terms intellectual, professional, work productivity and effectiveness to match the requirements of the emerging world-wide environment instead of remaining confined to narrow world of interpreting and getting succour from Marx and Marxist literature and remaining opportunistic to grab State powers to abuse them for the party’s benefit. and fool the people by throwing crumbs at them here and there.
Maharaja: After the Election Kurushetra War, peace must have returned. Has the Shanti Parva in MahaBangla begun?
Sanjay: We shall take up this subject in our next session, Maharaja, if you so permit.
Maharaja: Okay, Sanjay.
Sunday, May 29, 2011
20. Getting Into Peace Post Kurushetra
Sanjay: Peace continues to elude Bengal. Political Murders are back again though remain at low key.
The incidence of political violence and murder has declined substantially during the Election Kurushetra, but has increased a bit after the new Mamata Government was installed in West Bengal. This time most victims of political violence reportedly are CPM activists/ supporters, though the murders of Trinamool supporters/ activists continue to be reported.
Maharaja: CPM is complaining seriously for the first time to a Government of the hitherto opposition. Natural. But unlike the earlier CPM government which complained that Trinamool and Maoist goons were killing the ruling party people, Trinamool is not complaining in a similar way. Rather, the Trinamool party has publicly appealed to all to desist from taking law into own hands and cooperate with the police, besides giving stern warming to party supporters and members of stern action by the party against those who get involved in political violence. The Trinamool MLAs and party functionaries have been instructed to be alert and stop the supporters from violence. The new government has publicly instructed the police and administrators not to let murders hide and asked them to remain neutral to political parties and act independently without political influence while dealing with complaints and taking action against perpetrators of violence.
Sanjay: Mamata Bannerjee, the Chief Minister has asked the police officials to directly contact her over hot line in case any attempt is made by political parties to interfere with police action to control violence and take action against criminals engaged in political violence. Mamata has also appealed for peace to the citizens, asked his party workers to stop harassing or victimising left front supporters unlike the former Chief Minister, Buddhadev Bhattacharya who would only say “this wasn’t correct, and should not happened” whenever his party supporters had been reported to be involved in such murders/ killings/ violence had taken place.
Maharaja: Despite all the efforts of the Government and Trinamool leaders, killing incidences are being reported daily by the same Press and electronic media that the CPM has been decrying as being loyal to Mamata and Trinamool. There are two parts of the violence that is taking place now. First, stray incidents of revengeful killing of one party supporter by another party’s supporters. This seems to be inevitable as the goons of the political parties are still strong in their anger against opponents during the elections in certain pockets. It seems almost impossible for political leaders to stop these killings except by allowing the police and the courts to deal with them and recover unlicensed lethal weapons in possession of the goons.
Sanjay: The second source of political violence has its origins in the system of looting, illicit distribution and smuggling of lethal weapons into the hands of mafias and goons sponsored by the political parties during the previous Governments, reportedly often with the help of a powerful part of the police and district administration under the influence of the ruling parties at local levels. The Election Commission during the three months or so of their heightened election process activity in the State had forced the State administration and police to embark upon a hunt for recovering illegal weapons from the possession of political mafias and goons. The result was a very big haul of captured weapons, though now it transpires that even such a big haul was an insignificant part of the stock of weapons with the political goons and mafias. The new government has instructed the police to continue the campaign of arms recovery diligently. And, just out of fear that the CPM sponsored goons can again cause danger to the common people, the villagers and residents, often with Trinamool activists leading them, are taking this opportunity to collect in front of the houses and offices of CPM leaders/ activists/ goons and then requesting the local police for search and seizure of arms. So far no incident of similar type has been reported where the CPM leaders have organised common people to force the police to search and seize arms from Trinamool local offices and houses of Trinamool leaders/ activists/ goons.
Maharaja: The CPM has alleged that the Trinamool supporters are falsely implicating CPM party functionaries and activists by placing weapons into their offices and homes by force and then asking the policy to conduct search and seizure operations. It is now difficult for CPM to convince the common people that their allegations are often true rather than being false. People would tend to have a perception that the stock of illegal arms with CPM goons were much more than the other political party goons. In any case, the recovery of arms - from any place is important to the peace process, irrespective of whether these arms were in the possession of goons sponsored by party X or party Y.
Sanjay: Ideally, all parties should have themselves given out the exhaustive list of places/ persons where/ with whom they suspect illegal weapons are stocked to the Police and simultaneously publishing such lists in their websites. They are not yet prepared to do this as yet because they might be still hoping for the return of the earlier environment where they can use armed goons and mafias. It would have been the best policy for the CPM to weed out bad elements from the party and in the process improve the image of the party. Rather, the leaders are planning deputations/ agitations to protect their party supporters from harassment by Trinamool in the name of arms recovery campaigns. Had they offered to recover the weapons from their goons and mafia themselves with police help, the other political parties would have been forced to follow suit. CPM leadership is wasting another opportunity to come out clean and bury the common perception of armed Harmmad teams sponsored and protected by them once for all. By not taking a vigorous proactive step of voluntarily recovering arms from the houses of their own goons/ mafias/ activists and their offices, CPM is only risking greater damage to the image of the party.
Maharaja: In the meanwhile, the new legislative assembly must pass a new bill on recovery of illegal arms from political party offices and political party members’ residences, making it obligatory to register all offices and members addresses with the police with proper proof and evidence and announce the name of the occupier of party offices who can be charge-sheeting in case of illegal stocking of arms in the party offices.
Sanjay: Peace does not come from the skies: political parties need to commit to honest actions to eradicate those who pose danger to peace.
Sunday, May 29, 2011
21. Upgrading Post-mortem Diagnostic Technology
Maharaja: The Indian Prime Minister reportedly had suggested that CPM learns lessons from the great debacle it suffered in the State Assembly Elections in West Bengal and Kerala. And, in order to learn the appropriate lessons, the West Bengal CPM Leadership is indeed conducting a detailed postmortem of its unprecedented landslide fall in the elections. It has reportedly issued detailed questionnaire in which they expect the local level party functionaries from pachyats to districts to report. These reports will be scrutinised and evaluated at the State level compilation and consolidation stage before the final diagnostic report is deliberated at the all-India level of the Party.
Sanjay: This indeed is very good and one hopes that this time the Party will not come up with a rationalisation of their defeat in terms of blaming the environment like the opportunity created for the Trinamool and Congress to form an alliance, the delays in weeding out bad elements that infested the Party from outside and the inability of the grass-roots level party activists to establish contact and effectively with the common people. And, one hopes that they do not cite the story that the CPM has
been able to circulate convincingly among its committed brain-washed voters that the EVM manipulation is a factor for their defeat (even the Americans do not use EVM is the buzz sentence you hear from CPM supporters these days: so they like the Americans at least for one count - paper ballot system that the CPM had learnt the techniques to manipulate).
Maharaja: Hopefully, the Party would try to learn why is it that 48% of the enlarged number of voters voted against the CPM, on a scientific basis? The question is not just that 42% voted in favour of the left and the total number of votes for the left had increased and the CPM lost marginally: had the left collected 6% points more of the votes they would have been back to power. That would be just analyses of how they could have own. After 34 years of uninterrupted power, the CPM should not have failed to win the support of at least 66% of the voters to justify their continuance in power.
Sanjay: Winning elections and getting majority of seats in the Assembly to form Government is the prime objective of any political power. But for the CPM and the left who sold themselves as a pro-poor party cannot just strive for clinging to power but needed to win the hearts of an overwhelming part of the electorate. That only would have justified CPM’s claim that they were the most poor friendly, the most effective in providing the maximum help to the peop0le below the poverty line, the most secular, the most honest and clean, the most peaceful, the least arrogant, the least oppressive, the least manipulative and the most ardent advocate and practitioner of democracy as well as the most effective in ensuring good governance. That they may be perceived to be so by at most 42% of the voters is not enough. They needed to be perceived as such a good party by at least two-thirds of the voters even if some of these voters might still would not have voted for them. The issue is one of the CPM-brand. Getting 42% of the votes after 34 years of uninterrupted rule is as good as getting 48% of the votes and getting 230 seats to come back to power for the CPM. If that is not the case, then CPM is no different a party than the DMK or AIDMK or BSP or TDP or RJD - all of which are in the business of capturing and abusing State power for the respective parties and their henchmen and loyalists. CPM seems to have already become such a political party and only interested in managing to win elections to get into power: it has failed win mass popularity by deliverance of proper governance, rule of law, fairness, peace and progressive prosperity of all the people, especially the people at or below the poverty line, even after enjoying State power for more than three decades. The CPM is thus another run of the mill political party basically interested in abuse of power, nepotism, corruption and oppression of the weak to enlarge their kitty of money through exploitation.
Maharaja: Had CPM been a party with a difference, it would have not talked about ‘turning back’ after the 2009 Lok Shava elections debacle in West Bengal. It would have rather seriously considered whether they are really a sustainable political product for the people of West Bengal? It did not. It continued to rely merely on reports from its own cadres at lower levels including district level leaders. That these reports could not really assess the voters’ perception of the value of the CPM as a political party and a political idea, is surprisingly not acceptable as a logical possibility. When even a small section of the consumers start rejecting the product of a major producer, the producer begins worrying and try to innovate to meet customer needs rather than selling the same product.
Sanjay: But CPM apparently still thinks that they can continue to sell the product they have been selling so far irrespective of some voters not being inclined to buy such a product any longer. Merely because of the words ‘Communist’ and ‘Marxist’ in the name of the product the voters would not get convinced that the product CPM is of the quality and specifications that they would like to support and some people may get disgusted enough to try a new, untested product like the Trinamool.
Maharaja: If CPM was serious enough to maintain and increase their market share, it was not enough to practice entry barriers like stopping an alternative anti-CPM front by some way or the other including generating false fears in the minds of the voters about the quality of the new competing product, adopt predatory pricing policy by announcing freebies to people at the cost of the State exchequer, practice unfair techniques like scaring away voters from polling stations by using armed mafia forces, booth jamming, false voting, etc. CPM should have had built up strong competitiveness in the product it wishes to sell: there has not been any qualitative upgrading of the product in the last three decades while the voters have shown resistance to old, out-of-fashion, low quality products.
Sanjay: What CPM needs is an extensive survey of the tastes, preferences and aspirations of the voters and an analysis of the competitive relevance of CPM as a product in the market for votes. Even monopolies cannot survive for long without upgrading the product quality in response to shifting consumer demand patterns. CPM should have spent a few crores of rupees to commission a real market survey in West Bengal conducted by an independent professional agency of international standard to find what the voters expected from a political party and how far different political parties were perceived as being able to satisfy the voters of different segments in this respect.
Maharaja: That would have been the first step towards knowing the Truth on the ground and learning lessons. CPM has not taken this first step of upgrading the technology of postmortem of the death of the CPM product as it exists today in the face of competition and voters’ emerging tastes and preferences. It seems that CPM would take much longer time to learn about how to learn lessons from the reality of voters’ requirement and perceptions. CPM will not change in anticipation, will resist change and will wait until the external factors force it to change the hard way and at greater cost.
Sanjay: The trinamool should also learn from the Great War. They should also conduct frequent opinion polls to test how far they are able to satisfy the people and what the people expects. Star Ananda should continue with opinion polls on the popularity index of Mamata and the Trinamool led Government. That is the way Bengal needs to progress and remain focused on democracy and human rights. This will ensure that the dark days do not come again and the state gets into the hands of mafias and goons.
Monday, May 30, 2011
22. Chief Minister Selection: A Look at Resumes of Candidates
Maharaja: The State was in a serious trouble: it was facing armed struggle with guerilla warfare techniques in areas with forests and on the borders, it was running a huge debt burden and continuous budget deficits, its governance standards were pretty poor with all State-run hospitals unable to deliver medical and heath services required by the State, students of the State were running away to other States to pursue higher education of better quality and greater diversity, its police was both corrupt and in connivance with mafias and goons in possession of illegally procured lethal weapons, instead of serving the common man, the police was serving the rich and wealthy even if they illegally harassed poor relatives, the efficiency and productivity of the government employees were extremely low despite they being paid a very good salary and benefits to enjoy a standard of living that was few times better than the average standard of living of the low middle class and the poor, industry was stagnating in the State despite lots of land being forcibly taken away by the government. In some region of the State, some people had started movement for a separate independent State.
Sanjay: So,the citizens decided to appoint a new Chief Minister with a five year term so that the new Chief Minister can lead the State out of the morass and restore proper governance, financial strength, economic prosperity and peace. Applications were invited from willing candidates. Only two applicants showed willingness to take up the challenging task: B and M.
A Screening Committee was appointed to scrutinize the resume of the two candidates. They considered the different aspects of the resume and gave scores on a scale of 0 - 2 where 2 is better than 1 and 1 is better than 0. They gave the following appraisal report:
1. Physical ability to endure hard work: B=0, M=2 (M was younger by 10 years and works while jogging, besides having endured beating by the police)
2. Education Background: B=1‘, M= 1 (Both had masters degrees in subjects not attracting many bright students as do subjects like Physics, Mathematics, Statistics, Engineering, Micro-biology, Economics, Geography, Chemistry and Computer Science)
3. Post Qualification Scholastic Achievement: B=0, M= 1 (B had one publication while M authored a dozen or so books)
4. Extra-curricular activities:
(a) Sports: B=0, M=0 (B loves to see cricket matches and interfere with cricket associations, M worked as a sports minister).
(b) Fine Art & Culture: B=1, M=2 (B shows interest in attending film festivals, book fairs and Rabindra Sangeet performances, but M loves film heroes/ heroines, sings songs, recites poetry composed by great poets, besides being a painter whose paintings are purchased by local industrialists.)
5. Verbal Communication:
a) In Mother tongue: B=1, M=1 (B finds difficulty in recalling words, M is spontaneous but without sophistication in use of words)
b) In English: B=1, M=1 (both speaks in Benglish accent and grammar)
c) In National Language Hindi: B=0, M=1 (B avoids Hindi, M is not afraid to speak in Bhindi)
6. Past Work Experience:
a) In Chief Minister or Equivalent Rank: B=1, M=1 (B has a longer experience, M has higher federal level experience)
b) Exposure to varying types of bosses: B=0, M=2 (B worked under a single Chief Minister, while M worked under 4 different Federal Prime Ministers.
c) Variety of Experience in Coalition Government: B=0, M= 2 (B has only one type, M has at least three types)
7. Ability to form and lead political party: B=0, M=2
8. Ability to learn from mistakes: B=0, M=2 (B admits mistakes again and again but fails to avert same mistakes, M does not commit the same folly repeatedly)
9. Diversity of Philosophical & Revolutionary Heritage: B=1, M=2 (B depend on imported Marxist philosophy of dictatorship on behalf of 42% of the proletariat, M is proud of Indian, especially Bengali philosophers and revolutionaries and committed to American Abraham Lincoln’s doctrine of democracy of, by and for the people).
10. Mass Contact: B=1, M= 2 (B’s mass contact is indirect through junior leaders and occasional, M has direct and almost daily contact)
11. Honesty & Integrity: B=2, M=2
12. Sophistication of Attire: B=2, M=1.
13. Bad Habits: B=1, M=1 (B is a great smoker while M often breaks own security norms)
14. Ability to Envision Future: B=1, M=2
15. Ability to overcome Party Constraint: B=0, M=2 (B is dependent on his political party while the political party depends on M)
The Grand Score with equal weights to all dimensions: B=13, M=29.
But still the Screening Committee thought B should get grace marks of 16 considering the successful build up of the false high profile image of B in the minds of elite and local business class through Party promotion campaigns.
So, the final score the Committee awarded was B= 29/40 and M= 29/40.
Maharaja: It was a tie and the ultimate Selection Committee had to make up their minds. The organized a poll and B secured 42% against 48% secured by M.
But the selectors also chose the assistants for B and M. B got 62 while M secured 226.
The Selection Committee did not agree to award 16 grace marks to B. They chose M and M’s team for the State. The local business class bought Rs3 crore worth of paintings of M when they realised there was no need to take chances a few weeks before the Final Selection Committee would give their verdict.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
23. Where have those hearts gone?
Maharaja: Even as the new Government in West Bengal is working in the capital at break-neck speed to fix the manifold economic and administrative crises that the 34 year rule of the communists had gifted to the State, Ananda Bazar Patrika and The Telegraph, Kolkata report killings and oppression of political activists and their families in several rural areas: most of the suffers seems to be those who supported the CPM. The 24 Ghanta TV channel has been showing the helpless people affected by such incidents.
Sanjay: And, there is not yet any sign of the politicians, intellectuals and human activists rushing to the spot of accidents to protect them and sympathize with them. The Police, although freed from political party slavery by the new government is not yet agile enough to avert such incidents and protect some CPM activists who have been attracting revenge by Trinamool cadres because of the victims atrocities during the CPM rule. Perhaps the police in the districts have long lost the initiative of actions on their own having been goaded into action only by the CPM local leadership and sponsored mafias. The Police, according to the CPM leaders including Buddhadev Bhattacharyya, is hands in glove with the Trinamool activists organising such repression on CPM supporters/ activists, though there have been incidents where the Trinamool activists have suffered at the hands of allegedly CPM activists. For the first time in 35 years, CPM is now reaping the fruits of the seeds it had sowed in Police administration.
Maharaja: Unlike Mamata who used to rush to Singur and Nandigram to stand beside the people oppressed by the CPM sponsored mafia, named by her as Harnmad Bahini, the greatest shock of his life from the electoral debacle has so far confined Buddhadev to Kolkata urging the 42% of the voters to keep the Red Flag flying high and has not yet rushed to the spots to stand beside the adversely affected CPM supporters / activists.
Sanjay: It seems unfortunate that this time Mamata, the current Chief Minister is still fully tied up in solving the numerous thorny problems she has inherited from Buddhadev’s government and CPM party: she cannot has not now to rush to the rural areas to protect the afflicted families of the CPM activists/ harmad bahini members. Probably, she needs to put two half ministers on the job of curbing these political violence of taking revenge: the ministers could move around sensitive areas to stop such violence and continuously report the developments to Mamata: for continuing revenge mongering lead to resurgence of the major law and order problem created in the State by the former government and the CPM.
Maharaja: Intelligentsia, the singers, the stage actors, the performers of fine arts and human activists do not seem to be interested in stopping bloodshed. Nor are the TV channels rushing to spots with their cameras. True, the current incidents are unlike the incidents in the past when these were organised by the ruling party leadership to terrorise the opposition. What is happening now is the expression of pent-up rage against the long period of torture suffered by common rural folk. But, bloodshed and violence of any form and type needs to be avoided by civilized societies. The capable and socially responsible hearts should be fanning out to the sensitive areas in sustained peace missions. The great latent rage against the past oppressors currently without the backing of the State has to be diffused rather than allowing it get reflected in killings and violence.
Thursday, June 2, 2011
24. Public Change-Tracker: Both 42% and 48% Monitoring
Sanjay: Mamata Jhor (Trinamool Tornado) has swept the communists off to a small corner in the West Bengal State Assembly. That’s past and no longer exciting. But the Jhor continues with daily reports of Mamata’s diary of announcement of changes like the continuing shower of the monsoon soon to arrive in the State. Good that the new Government started in right earnest implementing through baby steps on the CHANGE it promised and getting it recorded through press briefings on a daily basis. But it would be difficult to monitor what really would be achieved as time passes. We need a simple tracker. The following is an attempt to devise on such Change Tracker:
Change baby step/s Latest status on implementation
1. Land back to farmers in Singur Study on finding Solution over.
Committee to suggest final solution
2. Release of Political Prisoners Screening Committee starts examining cases
3. Neutrality and Independence of Police Implemented formally
4. Improving Police Infrastructure On going
5. Recovery of Illegal Arms On-going: good progress
6. Restraining political party violence Partly unsuccessful as yet
7. Increase Beds, Improve Infrastructure No. of beds to be added announced,
and Service in Hospitals hospital administrators to task
Streamlining effective utilization starts
8. Govt. Owned Cultural setups Dolotranta removed, new broad-based
Committes formed
9. Land Bank & Acquisition Policy Work in Progress
10. Removal of bottlenecks to Metro Removed
along Diamond Harbor Road
11. Low cost food supply to poor in Scheme Announced
Jungle Mahal
12. Higher Education Policy Reforms Committees formed
13. Higher Education Facility in Districts 16 new degree colleges announced
14. Indian Institute of Technology Announced
in Darjeeling
15. Work Infrastructure and Work Renovation, Relocation, Upgradation
Culture Improvement in Initiated
State Secretariat Meetings held with Employees
16. Examination of the Crisis in Study in progress, discussion with Central
State Finances Govt. started, Budget being shaped
17. Improved City Traffic Policing Area under Kolkata Police extended
Reorganisation in progress
18. Solution to Hill Region Problem Agreement with Gorkha leaders: tri-partite
agreement to be signed soon
19. Primary Education and 40,000 new primary teachers
PTTI problem recruitment announced
20. Shortage of State Doctors Medical Recruitment Board set up
21. Presidency College University Mentoring Committee for Reforms set up
22. Undergraduate College Reforms Committee set up
23. Revival of Legislative Council ---------------------------------------------
24. Investigation on Past Commissions yet to be set up
Killing Massacres
25. Land Back to Sungur Farmers Bill being introduced in Assembly on 13/14 June
26. Unrecognised Madrassa schools Recognised 10,000 madrassas so they can get
central govt. aid even if the State cannot help.
All citizens, both 42% and 48%, may entertain through monitoring: otherwise, bureaucracy and ministers would not work as hard as needed to speed up Parivartan (change) that Bengal has been crying for long.
Maharaja: West Bengal is in the hands of the citizens: do not let it go back to political parties and their sponsored mafias and goons. Demand delivery from the Government on all the promises continously.
Force them to work hard 24x7 so that they have no time to enjoy the benefits of power, relax and breed corruption, inefficiency and oppression.
Treat them as what they are suppossed to be: volunteer servants of the people who begged for an opportunity to serve the citizens before the elections. As masters appreciate them for good work, encourage the good performers with help and warn those who are unable / unwilling to perform and call for their removal. Give them good salaroies if they need. Trust them only on the basis of the transparency with which they work.
The Great War of Bengal Election Kurushetra, 2011
(Collection of posts by Dr. Basudeb Sen at Sentertainment Kolkata http://senskolkatamonitor.blogspot.com)
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
1. Bengal Warms Up for Kurukshetra
Maharaja: How are the rivals shaping up for the War of Election Kurukshetra, Sanjay.
Sanjay: The warming up battle has just been concluded. This is just a rally-based, inaugural battle. There was not much to describe. I would just request you to listen to a conversation that I have recorded for you, my Excellency. C and T, two typical ordinary Bengali voters of the strongly politically conscious breed that proliferated since the 1960s in West Bengal, picked up the appropriate verbal duel the other day. Since media in Bengal is meant for intellectuals and politicians, I have this special CD created for you. First, they claim their right to victory. Each party is a Self-declared Winner. Please concentrate on the CD being played.
C: We are going to win the elections to the State Assembly being scheduled in May/
T: You are dreaming. You have lost the Parliamentary elections, panchyat elections, the municipal elections since 2008. Voters have deserted you. We will continue our winning streak in the ensuing elections.
C: We have already made a comeback. This has been proved by the turn out of people at the Brigade Parade Ground Left Front meeting on 13 February. Voters have come back to us. Remember, we have won the State election six successive times.
T. You did not see the voter turnout at the feet of Gandhi Statue on 20 February and loud call to evict you from the position of the Ruler in West Bengal. Voters are with us now.
Maharaja: Sanjay, the rivals seem to be confident it appears.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. Both exude Confidence, but the CPM releases the Track Record Weapon first. Just listen:
C: Voters are not going to be impressed by your rallies. They are impressed by our excellent track record of achievements. We have achieved so many good things in 34 years: panchyati raj, land reforms and land to tillers, expansion of education for all and heath facilities, industrial estates, rapid growth in agricultural output and fish, poultry, IT Parks and employment there, so many state government corporations for transport, infrastructure and for housing for the common people.
T: The voters have got tired listening to your decades old hackneyed song. They now can see through your old song to assess the reality of your poor performance record. You have converted the panchayati raj into your party raj giving away favors to your party loyalists. You distributed lands to many but forcibly took back from those who did not obey your party instructions or protested against your oppression. Your party’s aggressive labor movement drove out big industries and industrialists away from West Bengal and consequently forced many small industrial units to close down. West Bengal’s rank in industry has gone down substantially because of your incompetence. With little job creation, talent and merit had flocked out of the State in search of high salaried jobs elsewhere. Your health services expanded in terms of brick and mortar: actual health service quality has deteriorated.
C: All these are propaganda of the capitalists, stooge of US Imperialism and the media. What record do you have?
T: If we had 34 years to rule uninterruptedly, we would have made our State among the top ranked in terms of industry, agriculture, transport and employment. You are a tested failure: we are not tested failure like you.
C: We have long experience and competence. Our ministers are very experienced and competent. You have no experience and competence.
T: We have lots of experience and lots of competence. Our leader has long experience as Central Minister for the Railways and sports. She has performed the best among the Railway Ministers to date. She brought so many railway projects to West Bengal. We have four five ministers at the Centre. All these ministers have shown that they are more competent than your ministers with long innings.
C: Your ministers work very little. How can they be competent when they spend most of the time in West Bengal although they are Central Ministers?
T: Competence is proved by results and not how much time you spent on working in the office room.
Sanjay: Next the CPM fires the Ideology Missile and the Trinamool uses the anti-ballistic Ideology missile.
C: You have no ideology. We have the most scientific ideology developed by such great people as Marx, Lenin and Stalin. Our ideology is for the betterment of the week and the poor.
T: Our ideology is also for the betterment of the weak and the poor. We believe in democracy and not on single party dictatorship and oppression. Our ideology is not imported but based on the thinking ofinternationally recognized Indian thinkers like Gautam Buddha, Raja Rammohan Roy, Bankim Chandra Chattopadhyay, Swami Vivekananda, Sarat Chandra Chattopadhyay, Rabindranath Tagore and Subhas Chandra Bose, besides legend performers like matinee idol Uttam Kumar and Suchitra Sen.
C: But you have no comprehensive idea of the society, history and dialectic materialism in your ideology.
T: We have a clear vision as to what we want Bengal to be in future years. We are at the same time action- and resulted-oriented. You only give lectures based on an ideology discarded all over the World. You could not even paint how West Bengal would look twenty years or Fifty years hence.
C: Do not get excited with temporary set backs: all the poor of the World knows Communism will soon grip the whole World again.
T: You are still in dreaming state.
Sanjay: Next, the rivals exchange the Terrorism bombardment.
C: We are not dreaming but try to stop your terrorist activity. Yours is a party of goons, criminals and extortionists.
T: Your party is the most competent and experienced in terrorizing the common people. In three decades you have only developed two armed forces to terrorize torture and oppress those who seek democracy and protests against your discrimination and repression: one is your Harmad terrorist gangs and the other is the State police converted into a force controlled by your party bosses to oppress the people not showing allegiance to your party’s command.
C: Your party is anti-national extremist group because you support, encourage and collaborate with the Maoist terrorists. You have never denounced the Maoist killings of our supporters and ordinary villagers. Rather, you want withdrawal of central forces deployed in the in the State to combat the Maoist terrorists.
T: Maoists are nothing but your dissident former members and supporters who profess the same Marxian ideology as your do. They are your party’s creation. They turned to terrorism because you wanted to repress them. You did not ban them but wanted your Harmad gangs to annihilate them. You neglected the poor and weak tribal people who have no alternative but become the target of oppression by both your party and the Maoists. On the other hand, we have made public appeal to the Maoists to lay down arms, stop killing and get on to talks with Central Govt. You are practicing terrorism. You have good relations with the Maoists in Nepal also.
Sanjay: Heavy shelling continues with Injustice Protest Credential bullets now:
C: Voters know well that we are not practicing terrorism but fighting terrorism and violence perpetrated by the Maoists and your party. We are a party has a solid history of providing leadershipto the poor and the weak in their struggles and agitations against social and economic injustice. You have no connection with the bulk of the poor and the weak. Hundreds of our party supporters and activists have been killed by the Maoists and your goondas.
T: We have always rushed to the people who have been exploited and oppressed, especially in the villages by the Police or the Harmad army of your party. We have not taken up arms and become violent even when your party sent armed Harmad gangs and police to repress all protests and agitations of the oppressed people Singur, Nandigram, Rajarhat, Sashon, Chotoangaria, You have killed the weak and the poor in different places: we have rushed to those places to protect them by non-violent democratic methods. Your party has murdered hundreds of our party cadres and supporters who rushed to the help of the poor. Your party is using the State police to continuously harass our party workers by falsely implicating them in various cases.
Sanjay: Now they shift to use the Education -Culture fighter aircrafts in the sky:
C: Your party does not have the qualities to protect and provide leadership to the struggles and agitations of the poor and the weak. Your party and its members are mostly – from leaders to cadres and supporters lack proper educational and cultural backgrounds. Our party is far superior to you in this regard.
T: Unfortunately for you this did not happen even if you had so wished. Many of our leaders are more educated than many of your leaders. You have the support of only those educated, intellectual groups or persons of culture and sports whom you extended benefits from the State: they do not protest against you mainly because you purchased their loyalty by giving them State patronage. You discriminated against many other educated, intellectuals and talented people including actors, artists, sports persons, poets, novelists who refused to accept your party’s dictatorship like slaves. They are now supporting us because the value the principles of and values of democracy that you seek to destroy. Your fascism has been exposed to them and they are frustrated with your arrogance and abuse of State power.
C: You have no support from independent thinking intellectuals educated and cultured groups of people. Some opportunistic persons have become your party supporters and loyalists. Some of them are even patronizing Maoists.
T: That is your propaganda. You have failed to suppress all educated, cultured intellectuals and creative persons to toe your party’s stand all the time.
Sanjay: The battle shifts to the Ocean with Development Submarines:
C: The common people will not cast their votes for a party like yours which is anti-development. You have been creating obstructions to all our development activities. People know how they and the State lost when the Tatas did not get the land because of your negative agitations and withdrew the Nano car project.
T: Nano project is a recent development. Before that our party did not agitate against ay development project. You did not have any significant development project in the State for nearly three decades. Even in the case of the Nana project, our agitation was not against the development of the project itself. We merely wanted the Government to return the land of 400 acres to farmers who were unwilling to sell the source asset of their livelihood. The remaining lands of 600 acres acquired from willing farmers were available for the Tata Project or any other project.
C: But what development initiatives has your party taken for West Bengal?
T: We are not in power in the State. But within a mere 18 month period our ministers have brought in so many development projects through the ministry of Railways, Shipping and Urban Development. Your party could not bring in so many development projects and so much investment commitments as our party has done in the last 33 years.
C: You are not aware how much we have been doing through the State Budget and several MOUs and land allotment to IT projects. The voters know about them/
T: Your party goes on announcing MOUs for many big projects, but none of them materializes. What happened to the four/ five projects announced with fun fare in Salboni and other places including the one of the Jindals? Why are not they progressing.
C: This is because of the adverse publicity that so long as your party is there you will be obstructing most of the projects in West Bengal. You are not a responsible opposition party.
T: We are responsible opposition party. Our MLAs act the way it is needed in the Assembly and outside.
Maharaja: But the battle is becoming boring than entertaining Sanjay.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. That is why they are continually shifting the battlefield. They have now comeback to use Quality Leader tanks:
C: You do not have high quality leadership to act responsibly. We have an educated, cultured and civilized leadership. Ad, we have democratic decision making in the party itself. You have one dictator leader and unruly, undisciplined cadres. Quality of your leadership is poor.
T: We have a leader whom the masses love. She is a Master of Arts and a Bachelor of Law. She herself sings, recites poetry, and participates in intellectual debates, paints, besides encouraging performing arts, culture and sports. She knows how to honor National and State heroes and past luminaries in different fields. Just look at the naming of stations and trains. Your party’s culture is restricted to Nadan, film fairs, book fairs and CAB elections. She named and renamed railway and metro stations to honor many of Bengal’s cultural luminaries who had been neglected by the CPM from their very inception.
C: Your leader has been wasting Railways funds on advertising of inauguration/ foundation and stone-laying events almost every day to project her image.
T: Your party-ruled Government is spending huge amounts in both print media and TV channels advertising what the Left front government has done in the last 34 years at the cost of the West Bengal exchequer to attract voters.
C: Your leader has brought Railway Finances to a great difficulty.
T: Your profligate wasteful expenditure and inability to collect revenues have increased the Govt. of West Bengal’s debt burden to about Rs 2 lakh crore in 34 years. This is unsustainable.
C: Your leader has allocated more projects to West Bengal compared to other States, and gone ahead with projects not yet approved by the Planning Commission.
T: Your party the over-dominating ally of part of the First UPA Government at the centre. You wielded power over that government and yet could get only four railway projects for West Bengal allowing other States to get much more. You will soon come to know how far our leader has progressed in just one year when she presents the Railway Budget later this week.
C: Your leader has made large number projects and promises: very little of them will materialize.
T: Yes, she has announced many projects and trains. All may not be completed or started in just one year months of her tenure but most promises have been kept and most projects started or about to start. Voters will know the details soon.
Sanjay: Sir, they have now started using Corruption Bombs and Inflation Guns:
C: Voters have also come to know that your party is part of the coalition government at the Centre which is deeply entrenched in big corruption cases: Common Wealth Games to IPL Cricket of BCCI, from 2-G Spectrum to Defence Flat allotment scams. Voters will shy away from friends of the Corrupt.
T: You were ally to the same Congress-led Government of the first UPA. Voters also know that you have friendship with scam-tainted parties and their leaders. Your friends like Lalooji, JayaLalitha and others are well-known for their ghotalas. Even in local self governance in the State and various government departments there are reports about corruption and scams. You have lot of things to explain to the voters.
C: As if you are so clean: speck and span. There are reported ghotalas in self government bodies controlled by your party. And, you are responsible for inflation too. Your coalition government has been raising petroleum prices and increasing inflation.
T: Your government has also increased taxes on various items. You should rather reduce the local taxes on petrol, diesel and such items to provide relief to the public. Central government cannot control the international prices of crude oil that the country imports.
Maharaja: What is Next, Sanjay?
Sanjay: That’s exactly they are engaged in Sir.
C: We will win hands down. People are once again rallying around us after they have recognized that we have purged bad elements from our party and are no linger appearing arrogant. In case we fail to get 51% of the seats, we will still be a formidable opposition in the Assembly and see what you are capable of. You are not going to have easy life.
T: In case we slip a little, we shall be a formidable opposition. You will runaway because you have never faced such formidable opposition. You are already breathless with our weak strength in the Assembly. But do not worry: you do not have to face that opposition. When we release our election manifesto, the electorate will get convinced that they need change and for change they need to vote for us to bring about the change for the better tomorrow.
C: We will also release our Manifesto soon. Just see what happens after that. With your record of violence and killings in colleges and villages and your rising arrogance, you are losing your popularity. Soon there will be a landslide against you. You are not the type of party on which the Bengal electorate can depend on for the future of the State.
Sanjay: Maharaja, the first phase battle is over now. No casualties: with injuries the parties agree to ceasefire for the day.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
2. West Bengal’s Election Kurukshetra: Second Phase
Maharaja: How is the Election Kurushetra progressing Sanjay?
Sanjay: The second phase battle has drawn considerable interest of spectators. Not much rookies or pawns are in view: bishops and knights demonstrate their skill riding horses and elephants with high octane sound boxes. Very interesting indeed
Maharaja: The Leftists led by CPM raised lots of expectation about giving a strong fight in the second day’s battle of Election Kurukshetra. They chose the day of the War: the Railway Budget Day. Yes, the Railways are not the issue or target of the CPM. The enemy is the Railways’ Minister Ms Mamata Bannerjee, the trouble-maker for the CPM in West Bengal. All major CPM leaders cheered up the crowd for the second day’s battle. But they returned completely bruised at the end of the day in the Parliament and in TV screen debates. All their missiles got burnt-out by Mamata’s Railway Budget Speech.
Maharaja: How was the Second Day’s battle? Did the Leftist use the latest versions of their weapons?
Sanjay: Yes, Maharaja. They did but could not use them effectively. They had chosen a weak strategy and an inappropriate day because Mamata was fully prepared for both solid Defence and smart offensive moves to win over the voters. She had the widest range of weapons that Railway arsenal is rich with.
Maharaja: Please narrate the use of weapons.
Sanjay: The leftist fielded the few stalwart articulate debaters they have. They alleged that Railway Finances are in a mess: ‘Mamata is capable of doing the Impossible – She has turned the Railways from a profit making department to a loss-making department”. Their allegations have turned out to be completely false.
Maharaja: How?
Sanjay: The figures reported by Mamata showed that the Railways made a much larger surplus, though the major part of that surplus was eaten away for payment of huge arrears of salaries to employees on account of the Par Revision to the extent of 97% increase. The Railways earned more gross revenues than what was budgeted for 2010-11. She gave the normal dividend and met her capital expenditure target more or less.
Maharaja: But did not the leftist use follow up attacks on the Finances.
Sanjay: Yes, they did but that brought lot of embossment and they got bruised. They still harped on the Railways having made a loss, thereby revealing their ignorance of what loss means. They even said that because of the loss, Railways will have to borrow more in 2011-12. They seem to know that only budget deficits require to be met by borrowing. And, Mamata did generate an excess in 2010-11, will generate another larger excess in 2011-12 and will get more borrowings to finance her Rs.50, 000 crore plan capital outlay for 2011-12. Maharaja, since you are blind, you can read the post at http://senkonomix.blogspot.com/ . She shattered all attacks of her enemies on this field.
Maharaja: What other weapons did the left use?
Sanjay: The CPM had thought that Mamata cannot keep fares and freight rates constant for three successive budgets and awaiting a chance to bombard the Trinamool chief’s anti-people activity. Unfortunately, Mamata did not give that chance to them. Rather, she further consolidated her anti-inflationary, pro-poor image. Mamata used the logic of being consistent with the need for curbing inflationary spiral by putting off any increase in passenger fares and freight rates and took the credit of being poor friendly. She has also announced reduction in booking charges and concessions. CPM calls this election-oriented activity but admits that no increase in fares and freight is a positive step.
Maharaja: But didn’t the left brigadiers use the aerial attack with poor physical performance bombs and missiles.
Sanjay: Of course they did Maharaja: The CPM counted on demolishing the Trinamool Chief on her actual achievement in relation to her promises and targets. But these bombs and missiles went astray not able to locate the best target spots. Mamata gave figures to disappoint her critics again. She claimed to have met targets in most of the areas fully and in some cases to a fairly large extent: her Railways have set a record in new lines project completion, gauge conversion, line doubling, survey completed for identified projects, introduction of new trains, increasing the frequency of trains, reducing unmanned level crossings and progress of work on new factories proposed. And, she used her actual performance artillery to justify her equally ambitious targets for 2011-12 and attract points from the voters. She proved that the Railways are capable of doing much more things at a faster speed. The CPM stalwarts like Yechury and Acharya could not inflict any damage to Mamata’s credibility: her credibility on delivery of promises got strengthened. Her new set of promises will please many voters. CPM could do nothing about this.
Maharaja: Didn’t the leftist use the Naval attack with long-distance missiles of future pessimism to create suspicion in the minds of electorate?
Sanjay: That was the last, fall back attack the leftist relied on. They did try to develop the clouds of uncertainty about the future of Mamata as Railways’ Minister. The critics sarcastically pointed out that Mamata has to remain as Railway Minister if the Rail’s targets were to be achieved, but she also wanted to be the Chief Minister of West Bengal and therefore she was making promises she won’t be there to meet. CPM seems to be completely unnerved and did not know what quagmire they were falling into.
Maharaja: How could Mamata turn the table?
Sanjay: She carefully planned to instill in the minds of the Electorate and give them the feeling that Mamata would be further aggressive in ensuring that her promises at least to West Bengal are met and that she would be able to give more time to her ministry’s work once the State elections are over and she decides not to become the Chief Minister (assuming that CPM’s fear materializes)? Then, the Railways would do even better. On the other hand, if she were to become the next Chief Minister of West Bengal, Trinamool would continue with the assured Railway Ministry till the UPA-2 government’s tenure ends. Mamata would then become also the boss monitoring and reviewing the performance of her party colleague she would nominate to take over the Railway portfolio in the Union Cabinet.
Maharaja: How could Mamata signal this certainty?
Sanjay: That was clever craftsmanship. The Budget details showed that the bulk of the Railway’s capital expenditure plans for the projects in West Bengal had been crafted as non-lapse-able, non-transferable and specific bond raising programmes linked to remove uncertainty about her promises being realised.
Maharaja: Did the leftists give up fighting within a few hours of the start of the battle.
Sajay: No, Sir. The communist stalwarts were determined to fight till the end of the battle period. Of course, they were faltering at each step at every debate. One questioned why Manipur should get a diesel locomotive project – that’s a National loss for locating such a project in a remote yet-to-be-connected-by rail location. The debate revealed this person knows nothing about what the diesel locomotive unit is supposed to be doing and how locating such a project in Manipur would contribute to Nation Saving.
Maharaja: What about the anti-parochialism shelling by the leftist’s captainSanjay: They used that also but failed to snatch the popularity from Mamata. When Mamata Bannerjee was seen flagging off new trains in West Bengal, the leftists had complained that she was not functioning like a Union Minister. And, when she proposed in the Railway Budget new trains, new lines and new railway factories in West Bengal, they complained that she converted Railways into largely a West Bengal Railways and Kolkata Metro. Mamata rattled off the list of her projects and programmes - whatever is necessary and possible in all different parts of the country - from Jammu and Kashmir to Tamil Nadu and from Maharashtra to Manipur and developing the most integrated network of Railways for the entire country ever envisioned by a Railway Minister. The leftist shells became waste garbage and CPM got embarrassed being unable to retort to Mamata’s quip: Is Kolkata not in India as much as Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai are (and by implication is Kolkata not as important to claim Railway resources as much those cities claimed over the years)?
Maharaja: I am no fan of Trinamool or Mamata. But I have appreciation for people who deliver quality performance and like to see politicians using their brains for criticisms based on reality and facts rather than out of fear of competitively more efficient performer in terms of delivering results.
Sanjay: Sure, you’re Excellency. That is the reason that I make all effort to extract entertainment when people fail to deliver results as promised and just emotionally debate without logic and facts.
Post Script: Lok Sabha on Monday March7 2011 approved the Rail budget for 2011-12 after Railway Minister Mamata Banerjee assured the House of effecting measures to ensure availability of adequate coaches and wagons in the coming years. “Our performance is not bad...I have (approved) 16 projects. There will be no problem of coaches,” she said winding up the discussion on the Rail Budget. The Rail Budget was passed after Speaker Meira Kumar suspended rules to allow the House takes up the general discussion on Rail budget, supplementary demands for grants and relevant appropriation bills together.
Referring to the crippling shortage of coaches and wagons, she said, the Rae Bareli factory would roll out its first coach in April. “I will invite UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi for the function in April,” she said, adding that other factories would also come up to bridge the demand-supply gap of coaches and wagons.
Earlier during the discussion, some members accused her of bypassing Planning Commission and Finance Ministry. “It is a deceitful budget done through the sleight of hand. This railway budget is a victim of coalition compulsions and I am surprised how the Prime Minister (Manmohan Singh) allowed such a budget,” CPI-M Rajya Sabha leader Sitaram Yechury told reporters in parliament. Yechury said the budget has been prepared keeping in view the upcoming assembly elections in West Bengal, where Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is in opposition. But even then there is nothing in the railway budget for the next year, he said. Mamata’s announcement on projects for Bengal has been done keeping assembly elections in mind and she has cleverly placed them in the 12th five year plan under the PM’s Rail Vikas Yojona. So nothing is for the 2011-12 year. Even last budget announcements have not been fulfilled for Bengal,” he said. The CPI-M leader in the Lok Sabha, Basudeb Acharya, also criticised the railway minister and said: “Plan of Vision-2020 has gone haywire as no adequate funds have been announced for the projects in 2011-12 like laying 1,300 km of rail line. Even last year’s plan for l, 000 km reduced to 700 km in revised budget of 2010-11.”
Refuting charges of ignoring Finance Ministry and Planning Commission, the Minister asserted that she has not done anything without their approval. “We discuss every proposal with Planning Commission before going ahead...we should not play dirty politics in development works,” she said, adding that everything was done in accordance with the Constitutional provisions.
The Minister also assured the members that their constituencies would get one passenger railway system (PRS) on individual request. About new lines in their constituencies, the members were assured by the minister that Railways would conduct a feasibility study and inform them about the fate of their proposals. On concerns expressed by the members on projects pending since long, Banerjee said such projects worth Rs. 1, 50,000 were stalled because of fund crunch and these could not be financed from earnings from fare and freight.
She assured all members that their request for Aadarsh Stations in their constituencies would be considered but it is not feasible to have too many World Class Stations because the consultancy work alone requires funds to the tune of Rs. 30 crore to Rs. 40 crore.
The Railways bore extra financial burden due to imposition of cess on diesel and 6th Pay Commission report, but did not increase fare and freights. About the Public Private Partnership (PPP) in Railways, she said a committee was working on it. She said anti-collision devices would soon be introduced in seven railway zones to prevent mishaps.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
3. Bengal Prepares for Election Kurukshetra
Sanjay: The phase three of Bengal Kurukshetra has begun.
Maharaja: How is the fight going on? Who is leading?
Sanjay: No, Sir the battles in the third phase have not started as yet. It is all preparations going on currently in different party camps, within rival alliance groups and between the warrior political parties and the Neutral Regulator, EC (the Election Commission), to ensure free but fair battles.
Maharaja: Then, tell me the developments in difference camps.
Sanjay: First, about the EC’s announcement of the dates of last round of battles: the battle grounds have been grouped into six clusters and six different dates – three in the second half of April and three in the first half of May have been fixed.
The final results of the Great War would be available on live screen on May 13 – lucky day for the EC- three days after the last battle of the last round is over.
Maharaja: Why is all this necessary?
Sanjay: Because, the Great Kurushetra Election War of West Bengal 2011 is an entertaining, but a rare event that may revolutionise the face and brain of Bengal The EC does not want any of the illegal, unfair and bloody warfare activities generally being resorted to in the battles unofficially held for the last one and half year between the rival parties.
Maharaja: How does the EC ensure that?
Sanjay: EC has certain prescribed codes that the parties will have to follow and there are certain rules that all contesting parties must adhere to. EC will regularly monitor the compliance of each party and penalize offenders. It has its own army of peace-keeping forces, monitors, investigators to carry out its responsibilities for free and fair war.
Maharaja: Give me some idea about the important rules.
Sanjay: Use of some weapons is banned as soon as the EC has announces the dates. For example, no major voter-benefiting decision can be taken by the Ruling party without the prior approval of the EC. It is already examining an alleged violation by the West Bengal’s Finance Minister of having cleared such decision files late at night on the day the EC made the announcement of the War schedule.
Similarly, investigations are going on alleged use of official/ red-light blinking car by certain minister and on alleged distribution of cycles to school girls by another minister. The EC has also sent notices to the State Government to remove all posters and suspend advertisements suggesting/ claiming that the Government of the CPM-led Left Front is the People’s own Government. The Kolkata Municipality has been told to remove all posters that promote the image of the TMC and its leader. Otherwise, the EC will remove all such posters, hoarding, wall painted advertisement at the cost of the parties concerned and this expenditure will be counted as election expenditure of the party candidates in the elections. The TMC Mayor of Kolkata Municipal Corporation was seem immediately supervising removal of TMC leader’s large cut-out images from the premises of the Municipal office. The CPM is trying to take back the cycles from the girl students.
Maharaja: What is this election expenditure limit you were referring to?
Sanjay: As per the Election War Rules, there is a limit on the amount a candidate contesting the elections can spend on election campaigns to publicize his candidacy including distribution of manifesto literature, conducting meetings, expenses on related travels, food and lodging, salaries to his agents and other service providers to help him in his campaign. The spending limit for a Parliamentary constituency in major States now stands at Rs. 40 lakh and for Assembly constituencies in the major States at Rs. 16 lakh. Surprisingly, however, expenditure on election campaigns by political parties is outside the purview of these limits. Still the contestants find this limit too little to compete properly. This argument is invalid though: because each candidate has the same limit and the voters can be directly contacted at home by personal visits for soliciting votes. But the politicians want to use modern technology and advertising/ promotion campaigns in the same way as consumer goods marketing departments do. So, they manage to spend much more than the legally permissible limit.
Maharaja: How do they do this?
Sanjay: That has been very easy in India. The candidates do not spend this extra amount on official records. This expenditure is incurred out of black money generated by the economic and administrative system designed by the politicians themselves. The extra amount is spent unofficially by the political parties and the rich traders and industrialists that have to appease the politicians to get favor to evade taxes, get government permissions/ approvals for the businesses and as extortion money. But now the EC has designed a system to monitor the election campaign activities and the expenditure associated with such activity during the campaigns. Besides, they have alerted the Income Tax department to collaborate with them regarding large cash withdrawals from banks that are likely to be used for illegal spending on election campaigns by parties and candidates.
Maharaja: Don’t these politicians and political parties submit income tax returns.
Sanjay: Yes Sir, the politicians do. But they may not disclose to the income tax all their black incomes and stash them in bank accounts in the name of party workers and others who do not have white income enough to give taxes. Most importantly, the political parties are not subject to income tax, independent audit committees and statutory auditing as per any specified generally accepted accounting standards as in the case of companies. The Accounts of political parties are not even required to be disclosed to the public through advertisements or website. This system of protection to political parties with black money transactions has been designed by the politicians themselves. They talk about manipulation of accounts by companies and sit in Committees to investigate frauds and tax evasion by companies but no one can scrutinize their accounts in public interest.
Maharaja: That is damn good design for political business! What can the EC do then?
Sanjay: Even within the limitations of the system, they are trying their best. Maybe, sooner or later, they will insist on political parties to submit audited accounts and cash flow statements to the EC and publish these in the newspapers.
Maharaja: So, preparations are going on to deal with the EC regulations and inspections and investigations. But how are inner party conflicts?
Sanjay: These are to be sorted out soon. In all parties, there are various groups/ factions at the National/ State and district levels. The main issue is about devising the appropriate party selling points and distribution of the fixed number of contestable constituencies among competing potential candidates. TMC seems to have little or no problem of inner party conflicts because the Campaign Content and the candidates are decided primarily by its leader who has the last word: either you accept her final verdict or leave the party: there is not much scope for negotiating or bargaining with her beyond presenting your case once. She is the only rallying point for all other leaders and workers in the party and all supporters in the party. They will go with whatever she decides: even if they wanted to defy her: that would hurt them and not the leader or the party.
Maharaja: What about Congress and CPSanjay: There are a lot of conflicts to be resolved here. For CPM, the officially approved leader is the current Chief Minister, Buddhadev Bhattacharyya but the factions in the districts are recommending many candidates that the State level leaders are not willing to accept because of their principles of distance from corruption or contribution to the party’s electoral achievements in the recent past. Similarly, the All-India CPM leaders are debating about the emphasis on different selling points for the party manifesto and election campaign literature. They are reportedly not on all points with the State level leaders. These conflicts led to some delays in CPM’s announcement of candidates and release of the manifesto. In the case of one of CPM’s coalition partners, the RSP, there is already a revolt against a prominent senior State leader being accommodated as the candidate in a constituency from where the local leader got elected last time. This problem has arisen because the senior leader’s earlier constituency has been reorganized and therefore he has little chance to win from any of the neighboring reorganized constituencies and had to look for a safe constituency for the party elsewhere. The coalition partners of CPM’s left front are weak both individually and together and therefore have no alternative but to be contented with the CPM-dominated marginal existence till such time CPM fails to win adequate seats to form a government even with the support of coalition partners. So, occasionally on paper the coalition partners like the CPI may criticize CPM for their mistakes that cost popularity and credibility of the Left front alliance and for not taking the small partners into confidence, in real terms they do nothing effective against the CPM.
Maharaja: And how is Congress placed?
Sanjay: There are two factions within the State Congress. One, those who are very hopeful about a great Congress revival in the State assembly elections despite their loss of face in the recent Kolkata Municipal elections where they went ahead without alliance with TMC which swept the elections to a majority victory. This group has strong reservations about accepting TMC leader’s dominance over a possible alliance. They want a one-third of the total constituencies be allocated to Congress against TMC leader’s informal indication of allocation about half that number though reportedly she may show her affection to Congress’s national leaders by allocating up to 60 seats to the State Congress. Two, those who feel, along with the national level Congress leaders, that only a coalition lead by the TMC leader is in the ultimate interest of the Congress and removal of the CPM-dominated left front from power in West Bengal. This group would probably accept any number of seats allocated by the TMC leader to Congress to fight the elections as a coalition partner.
Maharaja: So, the TMC-Congress Coalition may still be a still-born one.
Sanjay: We cannot rule out that possibility. But the Congress Central leadership will not be willing to allow the State Congress to ruin the brightest opportunity that they have ever seen to beat the CPM and the left front hands down.
Maharaja: How long will take all these conflicts to be resolved and the real battles begin.
Sanjay: Just wait for a week Maharaja. By then the line up will be ready, the War cries will be heard and campaign battles start.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
4. Communists Line Up
Sanjay: Maharaja, Your Excellency’s ears may be capturing drum beats of the Great War.
Maharaja: Yes, it is very faint still. There is no conch blowing as yet! Why is it such a low key? The warriors with their leaders are not yet ready?
Sanjay: You’re right, Maharaja. Only the Marx-aligned Communist Camp has lined up all the 294 battle chieftains under the overall command of the Communist Comrade Undisputed Leader Buddadev Bhattacharya, the current Chief Minister of West Bengal. He is going to be assisted by the Marx-aligned Front leadership under the Chairmanship of Comrade Biman Bose. The list of contestant chieftains of the communists was announced on Sunday lucky 13th March evening. Immediately, small processions of communists roamed through the roads of various battle constituencies with voce vote cries. The drams started beating.
Maharaja: Any particular strategy can you discern from the formation of the communists.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. First, the average age of the chieftains has declined with the withdrawal of a large number of old guards including winning heroes of the Elections five years ago and induction of younger chieftains. Second, the women squad has been strengthened it seems, though many are yet to establish their credentials in their constituencies: Matri-Sakti (mother- power) in capturing women voters has been invoked probably to contend the Matri-Sakti-Leader Image of the rival party. Third, a few strong warriors with great vote capturing powers have been dropped because of their infamous activities in the battle of Singur, Nandigram, Sassan and/ or because of their failure to keep their rating as non-performing asset hidden from public eye or their inability to hide their corruption explosives under the carpet. Finally, some old and strong warriors have been shifted to apparently safer battle constituencies.
Maharaja: How is the line up consistent with the War Manifesto?
Sanjay: The Manifesto took quite a while this time to cook up and serve it as an ace to that is beyond the capability of comfortable, spinning return by the rival or the electorate. There are too many issues to be dealt with but all are not very substantive to the electorate. There is no wave of past glory to sail through speeding past victory line at this point. Rather, the external environment is against Communist slogans and long dictatorship, though capitalism is still nursing serious wound following the Great Recession and Financial Crisis of 2008. Bulk of Arab countries and North Africa are witnessing revolutions against erstwhile popular, national leaders who ruled for decades as fascist dictators dedicated to the poor, common man continuing to be without economic and political freedom of expressing different views. On top of this, a section of the Bengali intellectuals of performing arts are trying to stage plays like “Animal Farm” of Orwell (1945-6 vintage) that portray the fascist atrocities of dictators in the name of the proletariat.
Maharaja: What is the political drama?
Sanjay: This is the usual anti-establishment campaigns of the elite intellectuals any where. Time to time, the current Communist government of West Bengal – a part of the Indian Capitalistic State, has been trying to stop these intellectuals to stage such anti-establishment plays to reveal the ruling government’s undemocratic and fascist features. Just before the Kurukshetra Election War, this is proving to be all the more adverse to the communists. So, one of their influential leaders influenced the police to stop the staging of play by making a complaint of likely violation of the Election Commission Code of Conduct and the District Administration citing the reason for their action as the non-payment of entertainment tax by the organizers of the stage play. This has created a much publicized controversy over the communist hypocrisy when the communist Chief Minster said that the staging of the play should have been stopped by Administration while the Senior Officials serving the Chief Minister saying that the stage show was stopped because of technical deficiency of the promoters and the police showing evidence of complaint received from Chief Minister’s own party colleague saying that the staging of the ply would be breach of election code of conduct.
Maharaja: This is silly. Unnecessarily undermining the image of the communists by the party men is silly at this stage. The controversy is more damaging to the Communist War preparedness than the damage that might have been caused by the stage play itself.
Sanjay: You are right Maharaja. But as you know tempers, nervousness and tensions run high as the Elections draw near and the Great Battle is just about to start. Do not worry, the rival parties can also be expected to do such silly self-damaging acts soon. The Communists may get their chance to create controversy to inflict image degradation of the rivals.
There are more silly tactics that damaged the image of the communists. One erstwhile high flying State leader who lost Lok shabha elections in 2008, quietly brought a police-reported absconding party leader at district level to the State headquarters to settle the issue of getting a constituency to act as contestant chieftain and allowing the local police to arrest him on charges of murder, possession of unauthorised lethal weapons and other crimes. The headquarters it seems asked the police to arrest him if he so desired but did not give a ticket to the election contest. Police arrested him and put him in jail custody instead of keeping him in police custody for investigation, favoring him with a better and safer place to enjoy life and at the same time abide by the Election Commission’s directive of arresting all alleged criminals against whom warrants are pending for arrest. This person was reportedly absconding for the last few years from the police but moving about in all places around the police station but not going to the police station. This hardly helps create conditions for release of a suitable Manifesto.
Maharaja: That is very unfortunate, Sanjay. But how strong is the Manifesto bombing?
Sanjay: I have not got the reports on the detailed specification of the Manifesto as yet. But it seems that it is unlikely to detonate. It uses the same old oft-repeated issues about the two Congresses - the Indian and the Trinamool variety, as being useless, utterly incompetent and pro rich as contrasted to the highly poor-dedicated, efficient communist front that continues to promise employment generation with small scale industry proliferation, rapid industrialisation (without being industrialist friendly), inflation control, land acquisition with better compensation and creating infrastructure that places West Bengal among the top Indian states in terms of education, health care, etc.
Maharaja: That should work well.
Sanjay: It seems doubtful that this Manifesto Bomb will work. It may be easily defused before it detonates. The present Manifesto seems to be saying to the electorate to choose the communists because they are less dangerous to the electorate than their rivals. There could have been more effective manifesto bombs. One, the Karat-style Bomb with ingredients of dreaming up the communist revolution to overthrow all capitalism from West Bengal in just five years after thirty three years have gone waste. Two, a Bomb with ingredients of admitting all failures and mistakes from continuing to tax petroleum fuel, to sick experiments with education, to continue all violence, to allow profiteering house-promotion activity as the main business of CPM activists and loyalists, to remove Somnathn Chatterjee from the Party at the instance of a Keralite of little contribution to West Bengal or democracy, to allow police to be used by party leaders and activists in whatever way they liked, to allow a Hindu businessmen to use senior police officials to drive a poor professional to death because his daughter married this Muslim youth, to interfere in the election of the cricket association, to describe the government of West Bengal as the Left Front’s government rather than the government of all the people of West Bengal, to allow low and sub-standard brains (including the one dishonest enough to declare himself as PhD while not in possession of such a degree) to rule education), to allow Maoists to proliferate and not confront them squarely with legal and security weapons, to enforce government land acquisition on hundreds of unwilling poor farmers and bargadars and firing to kill some of them when they were in protest agitation, to allow unions and musclemen to act as chieftains of government hospitals, and so on.
Maharaja: How can you expect a ruling front to admit their mistakes and failures and yet win elections?
Sanjay: If you don’t, your bomb manifesto does not seem credible to the electorate. The issue is not of winning elections for a genuinely pro-poor party. It is one of re-establishing their credibility. Even if they win this Election, they would still be without credibility with the current manifesto. It would just be another five-year term for a party without direction and credibility. On the other hand, by admitting to all their failures and faults comprehensively and unhesitatingly and promising not to repeat any such mistake in future, they would have regained credibility. Without credibility, you cannot really become a better party than the rivals; however, badly you paint them in the manifesto.
The Communists have wasted the last chance of coming out again as a clean party. You cannot predict what the electorate will finally do. Whether you win or lose, you needed a manifesto that would have restored your credibility as a clean, honest and transparent party that is consciously satisfying the needs of the electorate they serve. The latest manifesto emphasis development if the poor people, agriculture and industry with the promise to make West Bengal among the top Indian States in terms of peace, per capita/ total purchasing power, education and health care facilities/ standards. Given the record of the past few years and the 34 year rule and the Communists’ reluctance to admit fault without excuses as well as to public commitment to not repeat the mistakes and failures, would the electorate consider the manifesto as credible?
Maharaja: Be that as it may. But whether they will win or lose will also depend on the line up of the main rival front and their manifestos.
Sanjay: Certainly. On this account till 16th of March, the communists are well ahead. The Congress and the Tranamool are still locked in bargaining the mix of lineup of chieftain contestants for 294 constituencies. Both the parties have wasted lot of time to resolve their disputes over merely 15-18 constituencies out of the total 294. Their pre-poll alliance may not come through. Even it materialises, it may not be a very healthy, cooperating front. Either way, this is advantage to the communist alliance.
The manifestos of the Trinamool and the Congress are not very important to the electorate. They know what Indian Congress is all about and the capability of the State Congress leadership to work as a team and with a clear vision of West Bengal. The electorate knows already what the Manifesto of Mamata Bannerjee’s Trinamool would be - she has repeatedly said all this over and over again as to what she wants to do in West Bengal if her party comes to power. I will come back to you either on March 19 or on with all details on this.
Maharaja: What about the new generation technologies warfare at Bengal Kurukshetra?
Sanjay: This is interesting, your Excellency. New technologies like campaigns through SMS on mobile phones, websites, blogs and twitter are going to be used on a large scale for the first time in West Bengal. The mobile phone operators and Internet site owners are sniffing opportunities of great business here. Election Commission will find it difficult to keep pace with this. Another re-engineered ancient technology is going to be used. It’s kite flying. The sky of West Bengal will be embracing millions of kites of colored Green and Red - the official colours of the main rival parties. There is going to a very good demand for such kites. Since kites have to reach each house tops and each child in West Bengal, the kites will be flying only to be cut-off from the strings within few minutes of flying. As these new technologies of war fare begin, I will be able to describe to you as to how exactly they are being used in the future weeks.
Maharaja: What next, Sanjay.
Sanjay: I will soon come back to you with update on the continuing current Phase Four of Bengal Election Kurukshetra.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
5. In the Midst of Colors of Spring
Maharaja: What happened to Non-communist line up Sanjay?
Sanjay: This time, there may again be partial or full three-way battles in Bengal Kurukshetra. The Communist Alliance has already announced its lineup of contesting chieftains - a more youthful set of warlords than the team that clinched a two-thirds majority in 2006. Some valiant old guards who could not get constituencies to contest because of tainted images are deployed to deal with logistics. They have released their Manifesto Bomb promising to bring in peace, purchasing power of citizens, education and healthcare of the top category comparable to the best in the country.
Maharaja: You told me about this earlier. But what the Congress Couple Buddhadev wants to beat?
Sanjay: Maharaja, Buddhadev is fascinated by his childhood experience. Those days, there was a single Congress Party in India and its election symbol was a ‘pair of bulls’ coupled to plough the land or move heavy cart loads. That is gone. In West Bengal, there are two Congress Parties now. The current All India Congress ruled by the descendants of the first Indian Prime Minister Nehru and her daughter, Indira Gandhi who also became a Prime Minister, was carved out the original Congress Party that vanished from the political scene.
In West Bengal, there were a few splinter group Congress Parties for brief periods and they also vanished. Mamata Banerjee was the only women youth leader of the Indira’s Congress Party. She even became a sports (?) minister in the Congress Ministry at the Centre. But she felt manipulated by different factions of the Congress leadership in West Bengal and finally formed her party with grass root Congress cadres. She christened her party as Trinamool (grass root) Congress, which now boasts of many erstwhile Congress leaders senior to Mamata in the State working as her lieutenants. Her Trinamool Congress has been the major opposition force in West Bengal since then.
Maharaja: But how come these two Congress Parties are in an alliance now.
Sanjay: Your Excellency. I seek your patience for a little historical background to explain this so-called alliance. The All India Congress repeated failed to give any worthwhile fight to the communists and continued to treat Mamata’s party as minor outfit. The reluctant attempt to form a formal coalition with Trinamool led to a disaster for both the parties in 2001. In 2006, they did not form any coalition as the Congress Party in the West Bengal became a party that was comfortable with whatever benefit they could get by not being aggressive against the CPM. The relations between the Congress and the Communists became extremely cordial when after the 2004 National Elections there was a hung Parliament and the CPM extended outside support to a Congress Government. That installed the Congress’ UPA (united progressive alliance) -1 Government at the Centre. Trinamool with negligible representation in the Central Legislature (Lok Shava) did not matter. But the Congress had to pay a heavy price for the CPM support. First, CPM exerted an overbearing influence in policy making. Second, by being outside the government, it took no responsibility for the poor performance of the government (including any scam that could later embarrass the Government. Third, special assistance had to be extended to the CPM government in West Bengal. Fourth, Congress could not object to the way the CPM government in West Bengal oppressed the opposition voice in the State. Finally, the CPM withdrew the support to UPA-1 government as the Government went ahead with the nuclear electricity generation support deal with the US. The Congress managed to survive the Trust Vote in the central Legislature, though accused by the BJP and the Communists of purchasing votes in exchange of cash.
Maharaja: So, CPM did play a very clever strategy getting all that they could by taking advantage of a lower than adequate Congress strength in the Parliament and then pull the rugs under their feet at what they considered appropriate to form a thid front Government.
Sanjay: Yes, that is called as the Karat-ee Strategy. But it was clever by half. It is this strategy that paved the way for the rise of Mamata and Trinamool Congress, especially at a time when CPM’s blatant fascism reached its height with events in Nadigram, and Singur and CPM fighting the Maoists in Lalgarh deploying its own armed cadres rather than leaving it solely to the police.
It is only then that Central leadership of the Congress Party sought ways to use the Trinamool Congress in cutting CPM at its base. It is at the instance and directive of the Congress central leadership, the Congress leadership most reluctantly went into a poll-alliance with the Trinamool in the Lok Shava elections in 2009. And, they came out triumphantly, reducing CPM”s Lok Shava strength form West Bengal from 40 to 16, with Trinamool bagging 20 and Congress 8. The Congress now needed Trinamool as partner in its UPA-2 alliance.
Maharaja: Then, this alliance should flower now.
Sanjay: Unfortunately, This is not a straight forward alliance. The local Congress leadership would not let Trinamool to grow into dominance and be satisfied playing a second fiddle to Mamata, even if they had no problem in acting in the same role in relation to the CPM, earning them the label of ‘CPM’s B team’. So, there was no alliance between Congress and Trinamool in the Pachayat Elections and the Municipal Elections with both the Congress and Trinamool doing far better and crushing CPM to defeat in many areas. The Trinamool’s slogan for Change in West Bengal created a great wave, embarrassing the CPM. But now the Congress in West Bengal wants to ensure that they get as much allocation of constituencies in the West Bengal Assembly elections. They thought of 126 constituencies as just but asked for 90 as a fair demand. Mamata felt 42 is what was fair for the Congress but initially offered 58. After a series of negotiations she offered 62 and then raised it to 64. She thought Congress would soon announce the alliance formally.
Maharaja: I got the impression that the negotiations would be over soon when you last narrated the progress of the War to me.
Sanjay: Yes, But I did say that this may not be easy. Congress is a veteran in negotiations and specialise in time wasting techniques that could unnerve the other party on the negotiation table. After waiting for four days from what was termed as the deciding final negotiation on Sunday 13th March, Mamata went ahead and announced her chieftains for 228 constituencies, leaving 64 for Congress and 2 for her other partner SUCI on Friday 18th evening. Her candidates began their campaign with colors along with the CPM contestants. Saturday 19th and Sunday 20th are the days of Colour Spring Festivals in West Bengal and India (Doljatra and Holi). With perfumed powder of various colors from Green to red and blue to pink, the candidates roamed along the streets and visited the residents in the constituencies to exchange greetings, entertain themselves in spring season dance and songs and gossips and of course seek support from the electorate.
This is a gaiety beginning to election campaign in West Bengal for all except the Congress. One CPM leader however really stole the show. While Buddadev addressed various election meetings in his Constituency, Guatam Dev who changed his constituency this time gave sponsored interview for hours together to 24-Ghanta News channel: the interview was broadcast on both 19th and 20th of March. More colors got into the election campaign paintings on the walls of the residents. West Bengal is all colors now.
Maharaja: What strategy did Trinamool adopt in its list of 228 chieftain contestants?
Sanjay: The usual strategy that all political parties adopt is larger number of women chieftains and larger number of Muslim and Scheduled Tribes/ Caste Chieftains. This has been adopted. But probably of necessity, Trinamool is required to field contestants who have so far been mere party sympathisers rather than party activists/ cadres. The party may have many grass root supporters but not as many leaders required to attract voters and look talented in terms of intellect, competence, and administrative capability. So, many leaders have to be inducted also from outside the party fold: persons from medical profession and film/ TV serial/ stage acting have been fielded. Besides, a former Chief Secretary of the West Bengal Government and a Secretary General of an all India association of industry and commerce have been roped in to contest against Buddhadev, the current CPM chief minister and Ashim Dasgupta, the current CPM finance minister, respectively. This list of Trinamool contestants, Mamata feels has representations from various sections of the society who want change and build a new Bengal that cultivates democracy, allows administration to work efficiently without political party interference and dictates, and enthuses small, medium and large business enterprises in agriculture, service and industry sectors.
Maharaja: But what will the Congress do now? It is a clear advance to our communists then!
Sanjay: Yes, Maharaja. The Communists have advantage at this stage. I will come back to you soon as the Trinamool is set to release its Manifesto Bomb on Monday the 21st and the Congress Chief Sonia Gandhi decides on the fate of the alliance with Trinamool shortly, given that the first phase election nomination of candidates is scheduled on 24th March, However, since the elections will be in six phases spread over a month, the Congress may also keep it options open till some more time. If Trinamool fails to get to power in West Bengal, it may become a more demanding alliance in the UPA-2 government for Congress at the centre to deal with.
Maharaja: It looks like the CPM has come back.
Sanjay: As the elections draw further close, all parties and candidates will be emotionally in a state of come back to put up a great fight. That is the enjoyment of War, Maharaja. That is the entertainment - not what the actual results turn out to be. It is not the time to get emotional about your favourites now, unless you are a voter or a contestant. Just witness how the parties, the contestants and the various sections of the electorate play out and enjoy as the story of MahaBangala unfolds under the supervision of the Kurukshetra War regulator, the Election Commission .
Monday, March 21, 2011
6. Concluding High Drama
Sanjay: The Fourth Phase of the Election Kurukshetra concluded today with anticipated High Drama.
Maharaja: What’s the drama?
Sanjay: In just less than three hours, the West Bengal Congress Leadership had to accept the seat sharing deal with Trinamool Congress with reluctance but forced smile on the face, following Congress President, Sonia Gandhi’s meeting with relevant central leaders of the Congress and a telephone conversation between Pranab Mukherjee and Mamata Banerjee: Mamta just offered one more constituency to Congress to rise it to 65, keeping the remaining 229 seats under her control. She did not agree to local Congress leadership’s demand for a reshuffling of the constituencies within the allocated share of 65 seats for Congress to contest. Previous day, the local Congress Chief seemed to have carried three lists with him for the consideration of the Congress High Command: one of 64 contestants with some changes in the constituencies, second of 90 contestants and a third with 294 contestants: Shakil Ahmed, Congress Central leader looking after West Bengal affairs had said that the Congress is keeping all options open including going it alone. Sonia Gandhi of course knew the capabilities of the West Bengal Congress with its various regional factions and she did not want to upset her clearly thought out plan to humiliate the CPM in its bastion in West Bengal (and Kerala) riding and strengthening the Mamata wave in West Bengal. Congress central leadership had much earlier signaled to its West Bengal Congress leaders that the Elections in West Bengal would be fought under the leadership Mamata Banerjee; but the latter failed to pick up the signal. They cried for an honorable deal with Trinamool: they ultimately got the honor they deserved from their own President on 21 March afternoon. They had to accept Mamata’s offered deal.
Maharaja: So, now this Trinamool - Congress deal will disappoint the communist alliance and make it difficult for them.
Sanjay: Do not get upset, Maharaja. Surely the advantage that the communists enjoyed till 20th is now gone. But that means that the War is going to be fiercer and therefore more entertaining to you. Do not worry about the final result - that will kill the entertainment. So far as you are concerned, if the communists win, you have nothing to lose as you lived with them for 34 years. If Trinamool- Congress combine wins, you have nothing to lose because you will soon adjust to the situation. Rather, if Trinamool does not get absolute majority by itself, you can expect more entertainment.
Maharaja: I understand that Sanjay. I would remain unaffected by the results because I am a blind person. But I have been brought up from childhood with the thought that communists are the only leftists, socialist, honest, humane and democratic in the World.
Sanjay: Being blind, you have not been able to observe what has been happening around the World as you gear up from childhood. There are many countries in the World which are ruled by communists. None of them have to be leftists as they do not allow anyone to be in the right or left as they are themselves in the centre as well as in the left and right. They are socialists in slogan: they only expect the citizens to be honestly obedient to them. They are humane only to those citizens who would never protest and willing to suffer if so required by the communist rulers. They are also democratic: they do not believe any more on left or right democracy but democratic centralism. The question of practicing open and transparent democracy to tolerate opposing views just does not arise.
Maharaja: Maybe you are right. But slavery to childhood dreams is not easy to get over. I would rather sing:
'Aazee Bagladesher Paschimaytay Ekee Oshonee,
Raajnititay Hotath El-O Netree Mamta Didimoni,
Ogo Marx Tomar Budhha Biman Ki jay Kore!
Jongolaytay kon Maoer Hana, Korche sobay Sabooj Boron
Ghasfoolayeri Santrashay hoy Laal Baameder Durgo Poton,
Ogo Marx Tomar Buddha Biman Ki baa koray!’
I am sad that the communists will have to face a tough election in West Bengal this year.
Sanjay: Be cheerful Maharaja. Buddha and Biman have made lot of efforts to stage a come back. It may not be so easy for Mamata even with the great seat -sharing deal she has made with the Congress to fight the communists. This is deal may turn out to be superficial one. Many shadow candidates would be secretly sponsored by regional chiefs of Congress to cut into the votes of Trinamool Congress, especially when in about a score of constituencies the local Trinamool activists are protesting against Mamata’s choice of contestant chieftains. Besides the communists have much larger cadre to visit every household to canvas for votes but Trinamool has few. And, with the various kinds of restrictions on public meetings using mikes and sound boxes, Mamata would be unable to hold mammoth election gathering meetings to generate the Mamata wave in all constituencies.
Maharaja: So, you think. Trinamool will have lots of difficulties with the CPM fully geared up.
Sanjay: Yes, your Excellency. The communists are still a strong force. You judge by yourself. There are numerous Bengali’s who share your childhood dreams. But for the first time, the communists will have to fight like valiant heroes. The earlier manipulations and tricks will not work now given the strong and agile Election Commission. The voters in the fringe of the committed, loyal voters would now need to be convinced and cajoled. This is what the communist are really focusing on. But the communists have lost the advantage they had in announcing the Manifesto Bomb.
Maharaja: How? The communist manifesto covers only desirable things. They have promised to lift West Bengal to the forefront in terms purchasing power, health care, education and peace. They are going to give priority to everything - agriculture and land reforms, industry to small businesses, Muslims to OBCs. The manifesto is excellent.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir: the communists’ manifesto contains desirable things and priorities: but does not contain everything that is desirable. Mamata released the Trinamool Manifesto at the same time she announced the seat-sharing deal conclusion. Trinamool Manifesto contains all that the communist manifesto promises and also contains desirable promises and priorities that the communists’ manifesto does not. Trinamool promised virtually everything that the communists did and laid out a clear programme of delivery for the first 100/ 200 days and first 1000 days. So it is more concrete. More important, Mamata has promised citizen friendly administration and police services without any political party interference. I had told you earlier that the communists shied away from making this promise. There are other important ideas of development in her manifesto. Finally, her critique of the Communist government’s performance is more focused, quantitative and authentic in terms of sources quoted, unlike the run of the mill hackneyed criticism of Congress and Trinamool we find in the communists’ manifesto. Even the Website version of the Trinamool Manifesto is qualitatively much more attractive with user friendly access features compared to the drag scanned copy of the printed version available in the website of the Ganasakti. The manifesto id not the deciding factor in elections: but this time the effectiveness of the manifesto bomb attack of the Trinamool will be far superior to that of the communist manifesto bomb.
Maharaja: That is unfortunate. But how can that be. The communists are supposed to be more savvy in these matters.
Sanjay: I agree with you but only for the past. Today, Trinamool has marched ahead with a superior quality manifesto appropriate to their call for change while the communists stuck to status quo quality in the manifesto. But that does not mean that the Trinammol election machinery would be able to make the best use of their more powerful manifesto bomb. So, Maharaja, you need not be alarmed at this stage. Let us await how the rivals play in the next Fifth phase, starting March 22.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
7. Communist Leadership Strengthening
Sanjay: Your Excellency, the War has entered the Fifth phase with the Congress announcing its lists of candidates. Both Congress and Trinamool made a few changes in their original lists of 65 constituency contestants and 129 constituency contestants respectively. Few interesting fallout of the Congress-Trinamool seat sharing deal include BJP’s decision to field contestants all over the State though it does not currently have a single seat in the State’s legislature and the decision of some potential allies (who and a section of Congress leadership thought that the Congress-Trinamool seat-sharing deal would not materialize) of the Congress to field their candidates against the Congress itself. Similarly, the SUCI, a small communist party that hates all the communist parties in the ruling Left front led by CPM, has decided to field candidates against the Congress in several constituencies – much to the embarrassment of the Trinamool party which as part of its separate alliance with the SUCI has allocated two constituencies to the latter.
Maharaja: This is funny electoral strategies. However, this should be good news to the CPM and its communist allies.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. But the communists are facing serious problems with their leader, Buddhadev Bhattacharyya.
Maharaja: How is that?
Sanjay: You would recall that I had told you that the CPM did not come out wholeheartedly in admitting its mistakes and seeking pardon of the electorate in their manifesto. But now in all public meetings, Buddhadev is admitting various mistakes committed by his party, the CPM. He said that forcibly taking land way from the farmers instead of persuading them and convincing them was a wrong policy. The arrogance and matabbari style of functioning of CPM ministers, leaders and party workers trying to intervene in the life of the common citizens was wrong. The selection of educational institutions chiefs on the basis of loyalty to CPM party was wrong. With so man wrongs admitted by the leader of the communist army, the electorate is asking the CPM party workers and leaders as to why the CPM should solicit votes for them.
Maharaja: Buddhadev should not have this. He needed a Krishna by his side.
Sanjay: He has Biman besides him. And, on land acquisition the other two top profile CPM cabinet colleagues, Nirupam Sen and Gautam Dev still maintains that for industrialization, forcible land acquisition is a necessity while being all praise for Buddhadev.
Maharaja: This should cost CPM heavily. Buddhadev seems to believe in taking credit if the CPM comes back to power and discredit the party if they lose on account of mistakes committed by party men. This is not proper.
Sanjay: You are always right you’re Excellency. But the party has inflicted lot of constraints on his authority as the Chief Minister. They did not implement his call for ’Do It Now’ to the communist party led State Government employees unions. The party expelled Somnath Chaterjee, the former Lok Shava speaker and withdrew support from the Congress Party at the Centre. The arrogant party leaders and workers defied his recommendation to be polite and humble to the citizens.
However, CPM has all of a sudden found another weakness with its Captain and other stalwart leaders.
Maharaja: What is that weakness?
Sanjay: CPM always had a strong and organized cadre that could push together thousands of supporters to gather at their big rallies to hear the leaders speak. The Trinamool on the other hand worked on the pull of their leader, Mamata, to attract crowd to their public meetings. Now, Mamata is using her pull-attraction in her long street marches to solicit voters for her candidates in different constituencies. In three separate road shows of 120-150 minutes each she covered all the constituencies of Kolkata, walking on foot something like 24 kilometers, with thousands of people following her and residents along the way waving her and exchanging greetings with her. None of the CPM leaders can imagine achieving this feat. This only enhances the popularity of Mamata as a leader of common people: they would trust a leader who can control the party rather than leaders who are controlled by party ideologues or arrogant party workers.
Maharaja: So, sad. What should CPM do now? Will this cost CPM heavily?
Sanjay: Not necessarily. It depends on how effectively CPM responds to Mamata’s innovative strategies fast enough, instead of raising silly questions about Mamata’s credibility and capacity to perform to bring a desirable change in West Bengal Government’s functioning if she gets to power.
CPM should rather concentrate on its strengths rather than revealing its weaknesses. But the party is continuing to capture the attention of the media by its weaknesses. These were not weaknesses earlier because the media ignored the. For example, earlier it was thought normal if a CPM leader or activists tried to manipulate elections, show arrogance and blame others for CPM’s failure to perform. Now it is different. If a CPM leader goes and complains to the Election Commission that despite its instructions, the police (which is directly under Chief Minister Buddhadev Bhattachryya’s charge) is not arresting peole like Mamata Banerjee against whom a non-bailable warrant is yet to be executed for 12 years, such actions make CPM look crude and foolish today to the electorate. Again, when a cabinet minister says that the Trinamool-Congress Alliance is influenced by the Government of the United States, the TV interviewer asks him if he seriously believes that people will believe in his American tale. While the West Bengal CPM arranged to make Sitaram Yechury and Brinda Karat Rajya Shabha Members from West Bengal, these two persons are not seen around while the elections battles are being fought in West Bengal.
Maharaja: What should CPM do now?
Sanjay: See Trinamool has nothing to lose if they do not come to power: so they are innovative in their strategies and actions. CPM’s thought and actions are adversely affected by the worry of losing power. They are unable to break fresh grounds in their thinking: their thoughts are along the beaten track of communists traditions, while the Trinamool gets fresh ideas from all sorts of quarters - small businessmen, farmers, workers, MBAs, artists, doctors, film stars, electronic media persons, advertising specialists, singers, composer of songs, novelists, etc.
Maharaja: CPM must now get fresh thinking and fresh blood to rejuvenate itself: merely getting some party men suspended or expelled and some party men denied tickets to contest is half-hearted cleansing.
Monday, April 4, 2011
8. Young Communist Proliferation?
Sanjay: Maharaja, there is some good news for the Communists in the sixth phase of the War: there are survey indications that they are gaining fast to reach the unbeatable stage.
Maharaja: How?
Sanjay: According Shyamal Chakrborty, a CPM stalwart, the communists’ left front just needs a 3%-4% swing in their favor to get majority in the Legislative Assembly as compared to the share of votes they had collected in the Parliamentary (Lok Shava) elections in 2009. And, there are survey indications that this swing is taking place in their favor. First, Gautam Dev, another CPM Stalwart and a minister in the ruling state government, in some of his several TV interviews, has given the results of his own impressionistic surveys of CPM organized meeting and vote soliciting processions on the roads, According to him, the magnitude of popular participation in the meetings and road shows has been unprecedented and that he has seen young men and women pouring in large numbers in support of the communist front.
Maharaja: But that s what they are supposed to tell. How far are these impressions realistic?
Sanjay: These are very experienced and seasoned CPM politicians and their impressions are likely to be quite an advance indicator of the ground reality. But, equally important, the real survey among 3600 youths recently concluded reveals that the shift is indeed taking place: 53% of the voters in the age group 18-21 are going to vote for the communists while only 51% of these youths were in favor of the communists only eight months ago and there is still three weeks to go before the elections to start. So, Shyamal Chakrabarty’s minimum target voters share to get majority.
Maharaja: That gives the communists a great moral booster in the War. But how far are these surveys reliable?
Sanjay: These are generally common use statistical games for fun and not very rigorously conducted surveys. But the results can have an impact on the voters and party activists mind. For example, this survey says that 53% of the youth now prefers the communists and 1% of the sample has changed from the TMC to Communists over the last eight months. But there could have been a survey that would have shown that the communists had a 46% share and there was a swing against it by 1% over the last 8 months. It depends on the sample size, timing of the sample and also the distribution of the sample over geographical space: the influence of parties vary from localities to localities. But irrespective of all these, the results of this survey quoted by the Bengali News channel 24 Ghanata, a channel fully committed to the communists propaganda over the last two years, is going to enthuse the communist supporters, embolden their leaders to publicise these favorable results in their public meetings to convince more youth to follow switching of others and the Trinamool supporters to announce the survey results as cooked up.
Maharaja: Then. What is the use of these survey findings really? The findings may not be consistent with the Truth.
Sanjay: Utility is only in propaganda and counter propaganda. Everyone knows that these surveys are often sponsored and biased and not rigorously done by independent agencies. But despite this, these findings become a major point of rallying and campaigning for the rival parties. It is like the old style of spreading rumors and using rumors as weapons to influence the minds of the pawns in the battles. These are very entertaining experiments with findings that may or may not capture the Truth. After all, there are 33 lakhs new voters in this election compared to the elections to Parliament in 2009 when the communists lost by just 11 lakh votes. If among the new voters, 11 lakhs are committed to the communists before they were included in the electoral rolls, then the communists are already on par and the fight would be on sharing the remaining 22 lakh new entrants in the electorate. So, it makes lot of sense to the communists to adopt this strategy of special campaigning among the new voters to fight the so-called Mamata wave.
Maharaja: So, this means that the communists will win!
Sanjay: That cannot be said with certainty. Much depends on what the unknown actual Truth is and how the fight over spreading rumors of likely Truth progresses. There could be further sponsored surveys to have a guess about the Truth of the minds of he new voters, particularly the young ones. And the communists will try to relate their wins in College student Unions’ win with the switch in the new voters in their favor. But it is not so easy to contend with Mamata’s fast developing iconic image.
Maharaja: Mamata is developing an iconic image?
Sanjay: Yes, she has shown distinct change in her personality over the last two years. And, this is getting increasing reflected in her TV interviews recently telecast by two channels. One is the Star Ananda channel which tries to show that they are neutral but appear biased in favor of Mamata’s Trinamool because of the reluctance of the CPM leaders to face the tricky questions that the anchor raises. Even in a recent interview the CPM stalwart fumbled in the interview: he said something about US hands behind Mamata-led anti-communist campaign in West Bengal electoral battle and looked silly in front of the TV as the anchor probed his allegation against US a bit further. Similarly, when confronted with the land acquisition issue, he said some thing that was in sharp contrast with the CPM Party’s latest official records on the subject that is publicly available and he said something that contradicted his chief Buddhadev Bhattacharyya. The other channels is the Kolkata TV which is very explicitly patronizing the Trinamool Congress in the same way as the 24 Ghanata goes all out to support the communists.
Maharaja: But how has Mamata done in her interviews?
Sanjay: Excellent to say the least. She now projects an image that is no longer one that is merely one of continuous and aggressive agitator against the communist establishment in West Bengal. She now gives an image of a matured politician with success of administrative performance as the Railway Minister in the Union government, with ability to envision a future Bengal with clarity and focus, as undisputed leader of vast following of party men and admirers, an able strategist and a tactician, a dedicated soul always at the spot to rescue the oppressed and the ill-fated, a well informed speaker who has tabs with intelligence information including on the how the CPM is running the state administration and also presents herself with an IQ much higher than the leaders of the CPM leaders have demonstrated on the TV. She looks capable of more humour, greater tolerance and sharper reflexes than her rivals. And, she quotes Tagore and Nazrul with ease. She continues to expose the communists’ false rumors against her and yet capable of providing foolish entertaining googlies against the communists. In her gesture and body language she appears moor confident than her rivals.
Maharaja: How far this image is going to further hurt the electoral prospects of the communists?
Sanjay: This is difficult to predict now. The battles are going to be fought over the next five weeks. Often election wars become also a war of nerves in the final stages. As in the World Cup One-day Cricket tournament that just concluded the Indian team just kept their coolest nerves during the last three matches - in the quarter-final against the reigning champions Australia beating them squarely as if the Indian’s were playing the final game, in the semi-final game against the national rival team of Pakistan beating them hands down as if the Indians were playing the final game one again, and finally in the final game defeated the contestant Sri Lanka with 6 wickets and a 10 balls to spare. The Indians played like Champions not in terms of superiority over their rivals in any part of cricketing abilities but reality in terms of having the strongest nerves that a Champion demon stares. Mamata still dominates with her nerves and the communists are showing nervousness. The communist now needs a sympathy wave in favor of the weak rival in order to beat Mamata’s Trinamool.
Maharaja: What should the CPM led communists do now to promote the ‘sympathy for the weak’ wave?
Sanjay: They could do various things by changing their emphasis in their election campaigns. For example, instead of false complaints against Mamata about her performance in delivering as the Railway Minister, they should argue that had they had so many resources at command as the Railway Minister has, they would have been able to do better - they did not have a level playing field and Mamata enjoyed an advantage. Similarly, instead of harping on Mamata’s responsibility as part of the UPA 2 Congress-led government in the failure to control inflation and corruption, the CPM should say that the Mamata enjoys the advantage of an ally of a weak and incompetent Congress-led government, while because of their anti-nuclear policy they had lost this advantage of exploiting a weak and incompetent government in 2008. Thus they are currently disadvantaged and handi-capped. Again, instead of saying that some evil artists, stage actors, retired police officials, physicians, bureaucrats, economists, TV channels, and human activists and other dumb citizens along with a part of the musclemen goons now supporting the Trinamool Congress, they should emphasise that many erstwhile supporters among artists, intelligentsia and others have deserted the communists making them weaker. In essence, they can keep all of their campaign points but express them after drenching them with a strong flavor of being afflicted by weaknesses, diasadvantages and loss of level playing field. This can draw a huge sympathy among many voters including the local industrialists who are generally comfortable with the known devil rather than welcoming a stranger like Trinamool to take the reins of the State power.
Maharaja: But this is a difficult for the communist to practice given their ego and arrogance!
Sanjay: True. But the CPM must know that giving up ego and arrogance for just one month is better than not exploiting a well-crafted well-engineered sympathy wave among voters of all types. Today, the Mamata has exposed the incompetence, arrogance, anti-people programs, bluffing and falsehood, callousness and visionless ness, oppressive and nepotism, anti-merit and anti-Bengali-heritage of the communists of West Bengal. Yet, Bengalis are still addicted to communism and the long 34 years of association with the communist rulers. They just need to be soaked in an air of a sympathy wave for a weak and lamenting CPM: then they will go all out to defeat the stronger Trinamool and resurrect the weak and the nervous CPM.
Maharaja: Do you really think this is possible?
Sanjay: Maharaja, the West Bengal electorate seldom like the winners, the arrogant, the egoistic, the merited, the competent, and the stranger without history: they always prefer the weak, the loser in a contest. But for that they have to forget their logical mind that discards all false propaganda against Mamata: a sympathy wave for the weak and apparently losing communists will appeal to the soft hearts of the Bengali electorate to vote with their hearts and not with their logical minds.
Maharaja: Will this happen?
Sanjay: The Sixth phase of the Kurukshetra will soon begin. We will find out if there is any sympathy wave emerging.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
9. Nelson’s Eyes on Bengal
Maharaja: What happened to the War, Sanjay? You have been keeping quiet for long!
Sanjay: I am sorry, Your Excellency. My vision has deteriorated because of greater distance from the War front. The War has entered the Sixth phase and a Nelson’s Eye view is just now available.
Maharaja: What is this Nelson’s Eye vision?
Sanjay: During the Battle of Copenhagen in1801, the British fleet Vice Admiral Horatio Nelson was ordered via flag signal to disengage and retreat due to the hopelessness of the situation. Realizing that any attempt to retreat through the shallow waters would result in catastrophic loss, Nelson placed his telescope to his blind eye and remarked that he could see no such signal. He then continued the battle and destroyed numerous enemy ships and was then able to negotiate with the Danes thereby saving many lives by turning his blind eye to the reality.
Maharaja: But what has that Nelson’s blind eye got to do with Bengal Kurukshetra War 310 years later?
Sanjay: Star Ananda and Neilsen Company have released the opinion poll on Bengal Election results due one month from now. Its an opinion poll signal: which side sees what reality I do not know. But someone may turn a Nelson’s eye to the signal and instead of retreating continue to fight to save face or some one may loose sight of the enemy blinded by the signal.
Maharaja: What does the opinion poll indicate?
Sanjay: Bad news for your favorite, Maharaja, The opinion polls indicates a strong Mamata Wave. If the Trinamool-Congress Alliance is adequately effective, Trinamool is predicted to win 170 seats out of the total 294 and Congress another 45 leaving only 74 seats for the ruling communists and 5 for others. Even if the Trinamool-Congress Alliance does not work effectively, Trinamool is slated to win 154 seats, just 3 short of absolute majority, with the communists trailing far behind at 93 seats.
Maharaja: That would be a great disaster for the communists and the end of a 34-year old regime!
Sanjay: Do not get disheartened Maharaja. There is still lot of hope
Maharaja: How can you be still hopeful?
Sanjay: First, it predicts the current communist CM, Buddhadev Bhattacharya is still slated to win by a big margin of votes withstanding the Mamata wave and her special efforts to defeat him through her battle lieutenant, Manish Gupta, a former Chief Secretary of the State Government who retired a decade back. This means the communist tides are still strong among the crowd. This may even help some of his current ministers to do a comeback, though the survey predicts 11 of them getting defeated in their ballot collection battles.
Maharaja: That is not enough to be hopeful.
Sanjay: Though the survey sample is large enough, it may still be less than representative of the population of electorate of 294 battlefronts: a small margin of error in vote shares could make considerable difference. The survey predicts about a 10% points in the vote share of the communists to 39%. This percentage is still high and a 5% point error in vote shares can turn the tables.
Maharaja: But do such scientifically done surveys have such high margin or errors?
Sanjay: Generally not. But there are two parts to this survey results. One is the share of votes collected by contestants and then converting them into seats (wins/ losses) from battle fronts covered by the sample to the entire population 294 battle fronts. Since we do not know the details of the sample composition the underlying turnout of voters intending to really cast votes, and statistical sampling errors margin, we cannot really be confident because the media reporting always tend to pick up sensational elements of the results,
Maharaja: But there is still a good chance that the survey results picked up the reality
Sanjay: You are right, Sir. The Survey results may be a true picture of the realty and if nothing changes during the, period between the survey and the actual poll days, communists would be out of office in a month in West Bengal.
Maharaja: Then there is very little hope for those professing to be the disciples of Marx. Even if the opinion poll based predictions are not correct in respect of each constituency battle front, the errors may be compensating in nature and the overall predictions in favour of Mamata’s dominance may come out true. There is no hope for my communists friends
Sanjay: Still there is hope, Sir. Assuming that the Survey, results are a true reflection of reality, there could be change in the reality over the weeks when the polling actually takes place and this may happen as the results of the Survey itself may cause a change in opinions and voting behavior.
Maharaja: How is that possible?
Sanjay: First, Trinamool may be carried away by the opinion poll forecasts and become complacent resulting in behavior that of party workers that could annoy the electorate. Second, the communists will work hard to make a come back. Third, the voters who enjoyed from CPM’s misrule without caring to cast their votes may turn up at polling booths to ensure that the communist patronizers come back to power and their investment in nurturing gainful relationship with the communists does not go waste.
Maharaja: Can you explain this a bit?
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. So far the communists were winning election after election with considerable margins. Many of those who benefited from the communist rule because of mutually give and take relationship did not have to bother about communists’ continuing rule. Now they are alarmed and would run to polling booths to cast their votes in favour of the communists so that the investments they had made in the communists relationship continue to yield gains. The businessman who had invested in cultivating good and beneficial relationship would contribute 3X to the communists poll campaigners against investment of X in Trinamool polling expenditure and organise their friends, relatives and servants to vote for the communists.
Maharaja: Will that make a difference?
Sanjay: Yes, such new favourable factors could turn the tables against the Trinamool. Moreover, the BJP does not like the Congress and the Trinamool to control West Bengal: they are in the opposition at the Centre and so are the communists. The communists are currently a foe of the Congress in power. Since CPM is currently an enemy of the Congress, for BJP it is clear that enemy’s (Congress’s) enemy (the communists) is a friend of the BJP: so they are fielding candidates everywhere to take a share of the anti-communist votes and weaken the strength of the Trinamool that severed their alliance with the BJP several years back.
Maharaja: Can all these factors contribute to Communists’ retaining their power in West Bengal.
Sanjay: Yes, this could. The Mamata wave is attracting those who want to get a relief from the arrogance, oppression and discriminatory apathy towards citizens not supporting the communists. But Mamata wave also generates a counter-wave to protect the known devils instead of allowing unknown devils to capture power.
Maharaja: So, you still give Communists a chance to come back?
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. But it is going to be tough. They have to do a miracle - save ministers like Nirupam Sen and Gautam Deb from defeat in constituencies that had been the bastions of the communists. The communists have to get at least 120 battle-wins even to be an effective opposition. It all depends on the Nelson eyes of the different parties.
Maharaja: Turn a blind eye to what the survey says: fight to win with all your might, my communist brethren; do not concede defeat before you have really lost. Remember Bengalis love to be communists - it is still a craze and a fashion. Trinamool and Congress will turn a blind eye to the survey results that 40% of the electorate still wants Buddhadev to be next Chief Minister, 40% found communists’ government’s performance good or very good and 39% has decided to vote for the communists. They will fight among themselves to divide the anti-communists votes along with the BJP and will finally find that they got together just 140 seats together against the communists 154.
Sanjay: Possible. But that would mean a much tougher time for the communists: they would not be able rule and perform at all.
Monday, April 18, 2011
10. Northern War Fronts and Money Clour
Sanjay: The battles in the Northern fronts just got over Maharaja, amidst black money weapons controversy.
Maharaja: How have my communist friends fared in these battles, Sanjay?
Sanjay: Reportedly, a national-level non-Bengali communist leader beneficiary of Bengali communists’ benevolence, has happily remarked that the polling this time was 75% against 85% when the last assembly elections were held and that this lower percentage of polling meant that the people were not enthused by the call for Parivartan or change against the communists. The local State communist leaders were also happy, saying that the higher voter turn out at 80% was good for the communists.
Maharaja: Which percentage of polling is the correct figure 75% or 80%?
Sanjay: It does not matter Sir. The communists are in either case confident that they will win majority of the battles fought on April 19 in the north Bengal districts as against the TMC leader Mamata’s forecast of zero win for the communist alliance.
Maharaja: That means that the communists are certain to win majority in the north!
Sanjay: Yes Sir. But the Trinamool is also certain that they will win the majority of battles in the same area because of the same reason of high voter turnout percentage. Until the results come out on May 13, all parties are certain that they will get the majority. The Election Commission has banned release of exit poll results till all the six rounds of polling are over as they thought such exit polls could influence the minds of the voters in the subsequent polls, they have not banned political parties to announce their own impressionistic exit poll results even if that may have some impact on the electorate in the successive rounds of polling.
Maharaja: That appears some convoluted thinking. Political parties can influence the minds of the voters by publicly announcing their own impressionistic exit poll results, but independent third party exit polls are bad influence and hence banned.
Sanjay: You are right, Sir. But such is the God-gifted logical consistency standards in India.
Maharaja: Sanjay, you mentioned something about use of black money atomic weapons.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. The CPM chief minister has publicly questioned the sources of huge sums of money being spent by the opposition Trinamool Congress on election campaigning including travel by helicopter by its leader Mamata. Another communist minister has answered saying that Mamata’s party is using black money. Black money can be generated but cannot be used in Elections.
Maharaja: This is unfair elections: Mamata cannot draw huge black money to defeat the communists.
Sanjay: Hold on Maharaja. Don’t you think that Black money should go more to the ruling parties in power rather than to opposition parties; unless the black money owners think that the ruling party will lose and hence try to bribe the most likely ruling party in the future. Wealthy businessmen with black money are not going to waste monies to help the losers. If more black money flows to a party, it would mean that party has a greater chance to win. In any case, such businessmen reportedly give a part of their black monies to both the ruling and opposition parties if they think that the elections would be strongly contested by both parties or alliances.
Maharaja: So, black money does not influence election results, likely election results influence the flow of black money.
Sanjay: Absolutely correct. Black money is not really a weapon of mass destruction. Political parties do not pay taxes and their accounts are not subjected to audit by renowned professional auditing firms. But allegations of use of black money are a dangerous weapon the use of which is ethically wrong in countries like India which rank among the top corrupt countries generating huge amounts of black money. You can use black money (otherwise black money loses its money character), but you cannot allege that rival parties are using black money. This highly unethical use of black money-use allegation weapon has this time been used first by the leader of the communists, Chief Minister Buddhadev Bhattacharya.
Maharaja: I now understand what you are saying. Black money is generated by the political system and political parties are supposed to be using such money. One political party therefore cannot ethically criticise other parties for having used black money. Black money by definition cannot enter the books of accounts of individuals and parties.
Sanjay: You are perfect, Maharaja. It is difficult for a political party to prove that it has not used black money because black money cannot be accounted for in the books. So, the Trinamool is going to court with defamation charges against the communist minister who had claimed to have evidence of black money being used by Trinamool Congress. As the minister suspects, the court may give an injunction against black money use allegations during the elections as this could be unfair means of influencing voters’ perceptions and minds.
Maharaja: I understand. The issue is not that some party uses black money and another does not. The issue is one of allegations of use of huge amounts of black money: public perception is that all parties are tainted by black money use and more or less tainted black colour is not material.
Sanjay: Right, Sir. The use of this weapon by the communists may prove costly and even boomerang. But Trinamool may not pursue this controversy if the communists come to their senses rather than get jittery with apprehension of losing the elections.
Saturday, April 23, 2011
11. Beating Psephology and Black Money
Sanjay: Maharaja, there is good news for you.
Maharaja: Have the communists got some wind in the sails against the high Mamata Waves.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. Buddha-Biman-Gautam trio have generated self propelled winds that appear strong. First, Guatam has dismissed the StarAnanda-battles Neilsens’ psephologists’ predictions of a Mamata Trinamool majority. The communists reportedly claim that they had done well in the Round-1 in the Northern front and that they would win close to 40 of the 54 constituencies where polling was over.
Maharaja: That is very good. Will the same trend continue in the next five rounds of polling?
Sanjay: I am yet to see the writing on the wall. But the communists have generated self-propelled strong winds to sail through the second round of battles in another 50 constituencies in mid-land Bengal. They have made it clear to the Press that the pesphsologists’ Mamata sweep as all cooked up and this would not turn voters away from the communists. First, the Star-Ananda polls has not covered all the 294 battle fronts but only about 163 of them and have not detailed their methodology so that the representative ness and appropriateness of the stratified sample survey could be examined and hence the methodology itself and the findings are highly suspect. Second, the opinion poll surveys published in the past elections have proved wrong and hence would be proved wrong this time again. So, the communists would get enough majorities to retain power.
Maharaja: This is a great fight back by the communists against rumours sponsored by the enemy camp. What do you think?
Sanjay: Sir, I do not know whether all these are rumours. Irrespective of the opinion poll survey, Mamata wave seems to be reality: how strong I would not be able to judge from such distance away from the battlefields. Yes, the communists are really fighting back. They have launched severe counter attacks on the enemy.
Maharaja: What kind of counter-attacks?
Sanjay: First, the missiles of black money scandals. First, communist chief minister, Buddha questioned as to where from Mamata’s Trinamool Congress is getting huge sums of monies for using copter’s to hop from one election campaign meeting to another? Communist front leader Biman expressed the suspicion that Trinamool Congress is getting black money of huge amounts to fund its electioneering campaign. National-level communist leaders Karat and Yechury hinted at moving the Election Commission complaining about Trinamool Congress using large amounts of black money. Finally, local communist housing minister, Guatam Deb, held presses meet with clues to proof that Mamata and Trinamool Congress amassing and spending about Rs 100 crore of black money: he advised the journalists to pursue these clues and get the proofs for themselves. He told that he had video-taped Trinamool Congress putting on fire tons of coupons in huge bags at night: these coupons are supposed to given to the people against their donations to Trinamool Congress to support them for funding election expenses. He said that the counterfoil of the coupons were kept to prove that the Trinamool Congress had collected donations of Rs 100 or Rs 500 from the common people, while in fact they had collected huge amount of black money cash from rich industrialist and businessmen. He further said that each Trinamool election candidate was given cash of Rs15 lakhs in two days in the last week March and this fact has been shared with him by one of the honest Trinamool Congress candidate who declined to take that money because he would not lose his reputation by touching black money. He said he has kept more evidence of black money use of Mamata’s party up his sleeves and will release such information when appropriate.
Maharaja: That is a great bomb Gautam has blasted on the enemy. With this he has made Mamata look like a corrupt woman tarnishing her image of absolute honesty and a poor who does not even wear a shoe but cheap slippers.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. That is indeed great. But the communists had in the process invited counter-missile attacks of black money use by the communists. Trinamool has made a secret open that the Communist Party of India (Marxists) which rules only three small states of India is the fourth largest political party in terms of assets. They have charged that many communist leaders and activists have amassed considerable amounts of wealth that were reflected in the dramatic up gradation of their and their family’s ways and styles of living observed by the people, that Goutam Deb himself has collected black money bribe of Rs 100 crore by allotting 600 flats owned by the Government of West Bengal, besides allotting a flat to his wife, and that the communist chief minister Buddhadeb’s daughter manages a non-profit agencies whose sources of funds is tainted black money. Trinamool Congress workers at one place confronted communist MP reported distributing cash to poor voters: the communist daily said that this was a planned operation by the Trinamool workers along with press photographers to tarnish the image of the communists.
Maharaja: My God, this is great shock to the communist image. Are these allegations against the communists true?
Sanjay: What is true and false is not important or relevant, Sir. The committed, loyal and blind supporters of either party will believe in the allegations made by their respective parties against the opponents. As for the rest, they do not believe that political parties do not use black money. They know that rich and wealthy people give monies to political parties in lakhs and hundreds of lakhs of rupees and few of them would like to get identified by giving donations to political parties through cheques. So, the colour of majority of funds flowing to political parties will be tainted as black. They also know that the story of coupons beings destroyed would be very common across all parties if they have to account for large sums of money as having been collected as donations. So, they would cast their votes independent of the allegations and counter allegations on black money use.
Maharaja: Then, the black money weapon fight has gone in vain with neither party gaining much advantage.
Sanjay: Your assessment may be close to Truth, Maharaja. But fights have to be part of electioneering. The communists have used the anti-American sentiment missiles also. According to Press reports quoting wikileaks the US consular office in Kolkata, West Bengal had sent an assessment cable to Washington suggesting that Mamata might be a strong factor in West Bengal and interactions with her should be pursued. So, the communists have dubbed Mamata as a pro-American, pro-rich political leader against the common man.
Maharaja: That seems interesting. What would be the impact of this weapon?
Sanjay: The Bengali’s - rich or poor, generally think of themselves as the super-intelligent race and therefore are very jealous of America being the richest country and trying to influence politics all around the World. So, this weapon should be effective among the half-educated, pond-frog mentality middle class and Bengal’s industrialist intellectual voters. The only thing is that few of them would really believe that with all their problems of economic stagnation and unemployment and headaches in Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, middle-east and elsewhere, whether the Americans would be really holding out a hand to Mamata’s a small party politicking in the small, economically insignificant state of West Bengal in India?
Maharaja: So, what does all this mean to the Round 2 polling in 50 constituencies on April 23?
Sanjay: A section of the intellectuals is very unhappy at one of the communist contestants in the districts referring to Mamata as a woman from an infamous locality and using other abusive language. The fact that Buddha-Biman reprimand has gone to the CPM leader using abusive language is not of much consequence now. Some women intellectuals have deplored this as cowardice on the part of communist men folk. Bengali gentlemen are very patriarchal and love women as equal only in love: they may not like to be ruled by women. Many men are her followers now and accept her leadership. Women see in Mamata the rise of women power. Many women whose families have suffered fro communist men’s atrocities in the past see in her a saviour, and they along with many other women would like Mamata to lead West Bengal to rule Indian political scene if for nothing else but to see the Bengali men folk realise the power of women.
Maharaja: Are you predicting a grand slam by Mamata at this Bengal Kurukshetra?
Sanjay: I am no astrologer or psephologist. I am a senior citizen whom no political party really cares. It is the younger generations who will reap what they sow today in the elections. I’m at the fag end of the day and a burden on the society. My fate is not going to be significantly altered whether Mamata or the communists come to power. No party is interested in senior citizens like me. I am just narrating to you what I observe. Be assured that there are many women in Bengal who would like to be ruled by Marxists’ men however crude or hypocrite, rather than accepting another woman as leader of the State. So, you and your communist friends have a chance of extended life. The Round 2 Elections recorded close to 85% polling. Whoever wins, the electorate and the Election Commission is sure to get the applaud aplenty.
Maharaja: Sanjay, your narration of the War is too neutral to give me comfort.
Sanjay: Your Excellency, do not lose heart. Battles and Wars are not so simple all the time. In some Wars, there is close finish and in some Wars you do not know the results much after the War is over. Bengal Kurukshetra is still young. On April 27, battles will be fought in 75 more seats. I will come back to you soon with the latest war news soon.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
12. Crucial Round Three Ahead
Sanjay: Maharaja, the War has entered the most crucial phase 10 with Round three polling in 75 constituencies in the three South-eastern districts of 24 Parganas (South), 24 Parganas (North) and Kolkata.
Maharaja: Why do you call this as Crucial?
Sanjay: For a number of reasons, Sir. First, the number of seats in these districts account for more than 25% of the total number of seats to be battled for. Who ever takes a significant lead here, gets a real edge. Second, this is the region where the communists have to put up the best of their fight back. In the Lok Sabha elections in 2009, the communists trailed in all most all the parts of these 75 constituencies. In the subsequent municipal elections, Mamata’s Trinamool made a clean sweep in Kolkata and Salt Lake. Two top ranking communist leaders, chief minister Buddhadev and housing minister Gautam Dev are fighting to get majority voters’ favour in this round slated for April 27.
Maharaja: What is your assessment at this stage, Sanjay?
Sanjay: Your Excellency, forgive me for my inability to forecast the results and tell you whether the communists will get the requisite majority to retain power in West Bengal. I can only tell you the situation as it prevails now and how the rivals are poised in their fight just before the Round3 polling.
Maharaja: Go ahead. I will make my own conclusions based on what you observe.
Sanjay: It seems that in this War the communists are making their best efforts to come back. They are putting up a brave face. But they do not seem to be confident. All their attacks have been futile and some have boomeranged. They attacked with all sorts of weaponry: ‘TMC= Black Money” has boomeranged, no one believes that Mamata is a corrupt person as the communists tried to project, no one believes that Mamata is the friend of the rich and enemy of the poor, the same is true of the communist claim that the United States of America is supporting Mamata, people have been annoyed by one communist candidate calling Mamata as a woman of fallen background and few would agree with communist assertion that the Railways are in a bad financial state and the performance of the Railway Minister has been poor.
Maharaja: Do you mean to say that all these attacks have gone in vain?
Sanjay: Not really. These attacks have failed on the general mass of voters. But these attacks have invigorated the communists’ captive voters - they have and will turn out to polling stations to cast their votes so that the communists’ do not lose any votes just because their committed supporters have realized that they cannot depend any longer on polling booth and other manipulations. So, the communists are likely to see full attendance of their committed voters in polling stations.
Maharaja: That is a positive factor: 100% utilization of captivated voters.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. And this is important this time because for the first time after 34 years, the communists are really defending against an onslaught they have never seen and there is no way to manipulate the turf managed by the Election Commission. Rather, they have difficulty in smothering the attack of the rivals.
Maharaja: Is there really any attack on the communists that they need to defend.
Sanjay: There are many. Despite the economic progress that West Bengal has made in last 34 years, the performance of the communist government has proved to dismal. Law & order position has been poor, especially in the last three years and people would tend to believe in what the Indian Home Minister Chidambaram of the Congress Party reportedly said: Governance in West Bengal has been the worst among all major states in India. That Buddhdev’s call for ‘Do it now’ has yielded nothing is recognised by every citizen. That the State finances are in doldrums is known by every citizen. That the communists did use their own armed hooligans to control territories through terror and atrocities on rural people is no more a secret after the Netai killing incident. That the main communist party depended on leaders, activists and supporters who have enriched themselves taking advantage of the party being in power and who have been arrogant, has been admitted by the party itself. The party’s program of weeding out bad elements from the party has not been transparent enough to be credible to the voters.
Maharaja: Have the rivals attacked the communists along these lines?
Sanjay: They had just to remind or help the voters recall their memory. And, that is strong enough an attack that the communists are unable to defend. The communists are beaten heavily on these grounds.
Maharaja: Your observations are generating shivers down the spine.
Sanjay: Do not worry Maharaja. Your favourite communists are still fighting with bravery and lot of guts. They can still retain their power if they can do a miraculous turn-around in the three districts that go to poll on April 27. And, remember the communists still have the most organised cadre of workers and leaders with decades of experience together unlike the Trinamool Congress. So, while the Mamata Wave could jeopardise the prospects of the communists, the strength of the organised, efficient voter gathering machinery could help neutralise the impact of the Mamata Wave.
Maharaja: How certain can the communists be of using their voter gathering machinery for ensuring a win?
Sanjay: I cannot say that. But I can give you an illustration to show how the communists can win. Just work with some off-the cuff figures like this: the committed communist voter percentage is 33; the committed anti-communist percentage is 25. About 15 percentage votes depending on who they think would be the winner, 10 percent exercise their judgments independently while another 20% do not come to vote or their votes are snatched out by political party goons. It is clear that Mamata wave cannot reduce the committed communist Percentage of 30 or increase the committed anti-communist percentage of 25. Given that the elections would be fair and free, the non-voting percentage may come down to 15. Thus the potential size of operation of Mamata effect and communist voter gathering machinery effect is 5 (genuine conversion of non-casting voters to casting voters, 15 of the in favour of winners and 10 of the independents. Let us say that the Mamata effect is quite considerable and results in 4 out of the first 5, 11 of the second 15 and 6 of the 10 independent voters go to TMC alliance along with 22 out of the 25 confirmed anti-communists votes, leaving 3 percentage points to BJP and others. So how much does Mamata alliance collect? 22+6+11+4= 43 out of 85 percent of the votes cast. How much do the communists collect? 30+4+4+1+1=40 out of 85. This small negative difference of 3 can be easily converted into a positive difference of 3 if the communists’ cadres with their organised strength can snatch 1% point more voters among each of the three classes: Converted vote casters, going with the wind and independents. So easy.
Maharaja: I understand what you are saying even if your assumed guesses are not accurate. The communists have to work hard at the margin.
Sanjay: You are right Sir. And, instead of trying to win with high difference in some areas, they must concentrate on spreading their efforts among many constituencies to win by smaller margins. Winning seats is important: the extent of margin over the defeated rival is not important. For example, in chief minister Buddhadev’s Jadavpur constituency, the communists need not have wasted much resource because the likelihood of Mamata effect changing the large positive vote bank margin in his constituency to a negative one.
But putting extra resources and efforts in the Dum Dum constituency where housing minister Gautam Dev is contesting could help him effectively counteract the Mamata wave supported by the Prime Minister Monmohan Singh who led a scathing attack on the communists at a joint Trinamool- Congress rally few Somnath Chatterjee, former speaker of Lok Shava, who was expelled by the CPM and Ashok Mitra, former Finance Minister of West Bengal, who was eased out of circulation by Jyoti Basu some twenty years ago, were brought into election meetings to invigorate the elderly communist sympathisers to cast their votes in favour of communist candidates rather than sitting at home nursing their grievance against the current ruling communist leaders flaunting their arrogance and new found riches.
Maharaja: You have at last given me some reason to be confident of my optimism about the communists retaining their power in West Bengal.
Sanjay: But if the Mamata wave turns out to be stronger than the 3 percentage point difference, communists may lose out. Watch out the Mamata Wave Effect on female voters, strengthened by lot of TV and cinema idols campaigning for Mamata’s Trinamool Congress. The fear of repression for voting against the communists has considerably gone down because of the Election Commission’s efforts and the joining of popular TV/ Cinema actors and anchors publicly supporting Mamata.
Monday, May 2, 2011
13. Mid-war Winners?
Maharaja: Sanjay, the War cries seem to be dying down.
Sanjay: Right Sir, the rival parties seem to have lost interest half the way in continuing the fights and battles. CPM has declared itself a winner after the third round of polls were over with ballot boxes of 179 constituencies sealed and packed for opening, scrutiny and counting on May 13. Mamata has been even bolder: she says the communists may at best get 20 seats out of 179 and with the remaining 159 seats with her alliance; her Trinamool Congress had already reached the magic figure of majority with 148 out of 294 total number of seats. She is now rallying to get two-thirds majority with the completion of the 4th Round polls on May 13 in 63 seats of Southwester districts of Midnapore and three others.
Maharaja: What has happened to our communists? Aren’t they trying hard to prove themselves right?
Sanjay: Yes, Sire. They are trying hard to prove they are right. The are certain now that they will be proved right at least in one of the following predictions:
(a) They will scrape through to majority to retain power despite all the rubbish of Mamata Wave and the Trinamool violence against their supporters: or,
(b) The Elections would prove to be farce with the use of huge black money used by Trinamool party and the connivance of Trinamool Congress with the a section of the media (Anandabazar Group assisted by Pradidin Sambad and Bartaman patrika), the Capitalists and richer classes and of course the Americans: the bad days of the poor people would start again after 34 years.
Maharaja: Does this mean the communists are giving up?
Sanjay: No way Sire. Be assured that they are really fighting the hardest battles for the first time in last four decades. So far they enjoyed the traditional Bengali fashion of being leftist or communists and they had all the machinery to rig elections and the larger proportion of the violent Mafia besides them. This is the first time; some Bengalis have difficulty in accepting the communists as worthy of fashionable leftist support or being a party dedicated to the cause of the poor. This is the first time they have a divided Mafia in their support with rigging master-minds weakened by the more organised and crafty Election Commission that is certainly winning against all forces that hindered free and fair elections over the last 25 years. So the communists are really fighting like great and brave heroes this time and the mass of communist party addict Bengalis are after a long time turning out to booths to cast their votes for the communists. What the communist political leaders lack this time is the certainty of the rigging and an accurate assessment of Mamata wave, particularly among the women voters. So, they have to have both predictions ready in order to be proved correct.
Maharaja: So, what do you think? Do my loved communists have a chance to win?
Sanjay: Your Excellency, I have repeatedly said that I am not able to forecast. As a Bengali, I would be able to come up with interesting analysis to show you later that “I had told you so” whatever the final election results come out of May 13. But, more interesting things are happening this time and we would be able to enjoy as these things develop over time, even after the elections.
Maharaja: What are these interesting things?
Sanjay: Major leaders on both sides might be found as having flouted Election Commission rules and might be penalised, even jailed. Besides, Mamata’s Trinamool Congress has to account for its sources and uses of funds. This in turn may require the communists to do so in a manner that passes the test of independent auditors’ scrutiny. This in turn might have repercussions all over India, in the context of large scamps and black money generation - an issue in which the Courts have become actively vigilant.
Maharaja: The political system would have great problems then ad I am sure all parties would tend to combine secretly to stop all these. But my interest currently on the fate of my communist warriors and commanders. There is no way knowing whether they would be able to retain power or not?
Sanjay: The booth-return exit poll results cannot be known until May 10th evening. So you have to wait for a week or so to get an indication. This time except of the die-hard communist supporters and a small section of die-hard Mamata protégés, no one is revealing in whose favour they have presses the buttons of the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). So, Maharaja: keep your fingers crossed and pray to Marx and Lenin at the land of pilgrimage for the communist baptism.
Maharaja: This is a Dharmayyuddh. The parties that stood for justice, fairness, freedom and development should win and those against these laudable objectives should lose.
Sanjay: You are absolutely right. Unfortunately, this time both the rival parties are standing firm on the laudable objectives. Voters have to find out which of them is more credible and dependable than others: or, just vote for a change if they are equally credible.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
14. Tensed Nerves in the midst of the War
Maharaja: I understand that the communists are certain to win after the 4th Round polls.
Sanjay: Yes Sir, the Chief Commander of the Communist Forces has declared that the Communists’ retention of power in Bengal is now an absolute certainty as they would have by now won the requisite number of constituencies.
Maharaja: That is good news. Buddha would not have said something like this unless he was fully sure. He must have had private access to exit polls of the first four rounds of polling.
Sanjay: Maybe. I am not sure. Because Anandabazar Patrika has published news of Mamata has already finalized the colleagues she would have in the Cabinet and preparing for oath-taking ceremony at the Brigade Parade ground on 18th May - 5 days after the results are declared by the Election Commission.
Maharaja: How is that possible? Communists would get the majority and Mamata will take oath with her Trinamool colleagues!
Sanjay: You are correct Sir. This is impossible. So, the communists have said that the news is essentially an advertisement sponsored by Mamata’s Trinamool Congress using black money to influence the voters in the final two rounds of polling in about 54 constituencies. They have alleged that the publication of this news by Anandabazar Patrika is a violation of the orders of the Election Commission banning publication of exit poll results before all the 6 rounds of polling is over. They have lodged a complaint to the Election Commission.
Maharaja: They have done the right thing.
Sanjay: Yes. But Mamata’s Trinamool Congress have also complained to the Election Commission that publication of the news may hurt the interests of the Trinamool Congress adversely. This list of ministers of Mamata as reported in the news reveals that the backward classes, the North Bengal MLAs have not been represented in Mamata’s likely cabinet. She has said that her party has not discussed the issue of cabinet job allocation as yet and would be done only after her party is invited to form the Government.
Maharaja: This is entirely funny. What’s going on, Sanjay?
Sanjay: Sir, tensions go up too much if the process of casting votes takes place in as many as 6rounds spread over two weeks. It seems to be a six-day cricket test match which is too long a period to cope with in these days of one-day 50-0vers each side cricket match completed in seven - eight hours or 20-20 cricket tournaments where each match is over is over in four hours. Today players need to win or lose on every-day of the contest between bat and ball. There should have been exist poll results available after each round. In the absence of such result-oriented schedule, two weeks’ of electron campaigning amidst intermittent constituency vote-casting battles is too tiring and boring resulting in nervous tensions for all including the journalists.
Maharaja: But why should the journalists do such reporting about cabinet formation even before all the rounds of polling is over?
Sanjay: Sir, imagine how boring it is to report the same things repeatedly about the response to election meetings of various leaders and the voter enthusiasm and turnout on the six different polling days. Just read, Sambad Pratidin and Bartaman reporting voters’ response to Mamata’s rallies for the two weeks and Ganasakti reporting on the response of voters in campaign meetings of Buddhadev and Gautam Deb. These are so repetitive and monotonous composition and reporting. The journalists like diversity and like to be innovative in delivering food cooked under different recipes to entertain the readers of newspapers and viewers of TV news channels.
Maharaja: So, they decide to create news about possible faces in Mamata’s Cabinet that may not come into reality! This is unfair!
Sanjay: No sir, this is really not unfair. The Ganasakti should have come out with a story on Buddhadev’s new likely cabinet on the same day.
Maharaja: Ganasakti could not have done this because it is the communist party’s own organ.
Sanjay: They could if they were innovative enough. Besides, the idea should have stuck Gautam Deb: he could have planted an idea in other news papers and TV channels like 24 Ghanta or Akash Barta. The journalist would have cooked up a nice story about Buddhadev’s next cabinet quoting unnamed reliable sources. The communists seem to be week in innovative communication: they had only been strong in using muscle power, captive police and various election rigging methods that were effective before the Election Commission outsmarted them this time.
Maharaja: I understand the journalists and media industry’s need to innovate to keep their customers’ interest in what they serve as news and the form in which serve. But why should seasoned politicians of the communists who have been in power for 34 years continuously?
Sanjay: Of the 34 years, 33 years were more or less the same. But this last one year has been different. The communists have not been popular among close to 50% of the voters. They have never tried to be popular with 75% of the population. Their strategy has been to minimise the share of voters the party needed and the percentage share of votes and yet win as many constituencies as you can by minimizing the percentage seats that the combined opposition can get. Such a strategy is considered optimal because the larger is the percentage share of the electorate you want in one’s favour, the greater is the problem of sharing the benefits of power of ruling and lower is the scope for exploiting people whom you need not depend.
Maharaja: How were they implementing this strategy?
Sanjay: To implement this strategy effectively, one just needed to follow the following tactics: (a) keep the opposition divided and play one part of the opposition against the other, if necessary by sharing some small benefits with select individuals in the opposition - this group of individuals are often referred to as B team of the communists, a team that would always keep the opposition divided and weak in exchange of the small benefits they get from the ruling communists, (b) build up a reserve force f mafia that would in exchange of monetary benefits and protection from police intervention capture territories for the communists by scaring away any group of people from opposing the communists in their exploitation business, scaring voters away from the booths through terror threats in various localities, manipulate the preparation of electoral rolls by removing the names of voters they do not trust, including fictitious names in the rolls, capture polling booths for large scale casting of votes by their cadres and by adopting other methods of election rigging. The more intensely one can do all these, the more is the likelihood of getting majority wins in the elections. So, even if one can have 30% the voters with you, you can win the majority of the seats.
Maharaja: So, why should tensions arise now in the minds of the communists?
Sanjay: This time, a part of the mafia who were no longer getting adequate remuneration/ compensation from the communists because of the growing number of such mafia men to be accommodated became anti-communists. They joined the Congress or the Trinamool Congress just to take revenge even if they do not get befits by supporting these parties. They knew how the polls are rigged and also how to counter such rigging. So, the communists were no more sure of success in achieving their basic strategy, especially because the Electron Commission had become more smart at countering election terror rigging methods of political parties. So, this time the communists needed to more percentage share of voters with them than in the past. Whether this is working out in the favor or not was not becoming evident after each round of polling. That was causing tensions to increase: communists have long forgotten to live with uncertainty. At this fag end of the polling, they are worrying about things they never did in the past. For example, the latest episode of the offer they claim they have received for Electronic Voting Machine Software manipulation in their favour!
Maharaja: What is this EVM Software manipulation proposal they have received?
Sanjay: It seems that one of the communist battle warrior chieftain received a telephone call where the caller suggested that if the communists pay him some good amount of money, he can manipulate the software in the EVM machines such that irrespective of which buttons the voters push to cast their votes, five out of ten votes will be recorded in favour of the communists and the remaining five randomly distributed among other party candidates. This would ensure assured win for the communists. The communists have lodged a complaint with the Election Commission which it seems to be investigating into this.
Maharaja: But is such software manipulation possible?
Sanjay: Do not worry about what is possible or not for the present Sir. Why is it that the communists received such a proposal after fur rounds of polls involving 242 constituencies is already over and only 52 constituencies are awaiting polls? Why did the offer not come earlier? Did the offer come to other parties earlier and they used black money to get into such a deal and then ran out of money for these 52 constituencies? How is it that this EVM software manipulation product was not marketed in other states that had polls in the month of April?
Maharaja: The communists must have sought answers to this before complaining. They are giving an impression of their being novices in electioneering.
Sanjay: Yes, Maharaja. There were more questions to be pondered about. How does one ensures that the proposed caller and his team of EVM software manipulation establish their credentials to convince the buyer of their winning game help so that the monies can be paid. How is it that only a particular communist received this proposal over phone? Say, tomorrow the Trinamool Congress complains that they had received telephone calls from a stranger proposing that the callers team can hack the EVM records containing the vote counting already done in the previous four rounds and kept under lock and key by the Election Commission and manipulate the votes already cast all in favour of the Trinamool candidates?
Maharaja: I understand what you are hinting at. The communists are so tensed that they are worried that votes in all the rounds were or are being manipulated against them through software hackers linked to the people inside the Election Commission. It may be a reflection of some extraordinary level of jittery among the communist warriors. But, Sanjay, you have given big lecture on the tensed nerves of the communists. I want to know the implications of all that you have said in more concrete terms.
Sanjay: Sure Maharaja: I will make efforts to meet your requirement. The communist knew that over the years they have developed a strong addiction to vote only for the communists among 30% of the people. But over the years, they have allowed many voters to become loyal anti-communists - these people have suffered the most under the communist rule. This section may now constitute about 35% who will not vote for the communists. So, election campaign is now meant for 40% of the voters. Of this 15% would not turn up at the polling stations. Thus, the real issue of the remaining 25% of the voters. Rigging could have ensured that 15% of this gets clicked in favour of the communists. But this time rigging does not seem to be working out. So, uncertainty has increased. This is causing tensions.
Maharaja: But tensions are bad. While you are engaged in a War, you must be absolutely cool.
Sanjay: You are right Sir. But it is difficult. And, therefore tensions lead to bad actions and that in turn cause further worries and tensions. For example, you bring allegations of using black money against you and the same allegations get inflicted on you. You use abusive language because of tensions that lead to widespread protests through newspapers and that causes more tension in your mind about losing votes. Your cadres in the process start loose talks about throwing out useless leaders after the elections. These lose words get picked up by the media to spin new damaging stories. That in turn leads to worries and further loose talks. Your tensions increase all the more. This seems to be happening to your communist friends, Maharaja, Sir.
Maharaja: But the same tensions should emerge among the Trinamool and the Congress parties.
Sanjay: Surely. All parties are afflicted by this problem of keeping themselves free from tensions. But, this is happening for the first time to your communist friends.
Maharaja: So, I should not worry about this tension factor. This by itself would not alter the outcome of the War.
Sanjay: You are right Sir. These tensions and actions and reactions under tensions are a source of entertainment for the voters and us. We should enjoy these. We are entitled to our entertainment and should not let them go waste thinking about consequences of these tension-filled action-reaction War.
Maharaja: I agree with you Sanjay. I now see the actions of Mamata, Buddhadev, Gautam Deb and the different political parties in a different perspective. They are doing their jobs as they capable off given their inherent properties and tendencies including tension-prone nerves. We are to entertain us witnessing what they are doing. After all, the outcome of the War is not in our or their hands, whether you get Gautama Buddha’s preaching of love and pace or Mamata’s love and affection or both in certain measure.
Monday, May 9, 2011
15. Fight Ends for Ballots, Begins Over Likely Results
Sanjay: Maharaja, the Round 5 polling for 38 battle constituencies is over. The fight for ballots for the remaining 14 fronts in the Maoist infiltrated forest areas is also over - the people here will cast their votes on Tuesday 10 May.
Maharaja: How many of the 280 battles have been won by the communists? Any idea?
Sanjay: The exit polls would be available from all TV channels and newspapers, except perhaps those owned or working for the communists, who are yet to indicate their firm program on exit poll result release. All others will be releasing the likely results on May 10 evening. May 11 & 12 are listed for entertainment on discussions on the likely results predicted by exit polls. This is the most difficult period for the politicians if they are not sure of what the actual ballot counting will reveal and yet have to justify why they think that their parries will get majority and how much more than the rivals. And, within a day, the final outcome would be available to show how good the politicians has been in forecasting the peoples’ verdict.
Maharaja: So, you mean to say that we cannot get any idea till the exit polls are released on 10th evening/
Sanjay: No Sir. You can get an idea now about what the exit polls are likely to reveal.
Maharaja: How do you get such an idea? What is your source?
Sanjay: Sir, my sources are the newspapers and TV channels - the have started quoting assessment of different political parties. Thee may not be authentic but based on leaks by party officials.
Maharaja: Let’s get the different so-called political party field assessments.
Sanjay: There are three versions as usual: Conservative, Optimistic and Surprising. And, there are two sources of assessments: Communists and Congress-Trinamool combine. I have a suspicion however that politicians may have taken into account the glimpse’s of exit poll result secrets they could privately access.
Maharaja: Just tell me the numbers now.
Sanjay: First, the Communists’ assessment. The conservatively estimate that they would get 152 seats - just 4 more than necessary to get majority to form Government. The communists are optimistic of getting 170 seats. And they would be surprised if they fail to get less than 230 seats.
Maharaja: Good show. Now about the Rivals’ assessment:
Sanjay: The rivals have an optimistic projection of 252 if the Mamata Wave had been really strong among women voters, Muslim voters particularly in the 24 Parganas and the Singur-type pockets in Midnapore, and among the new entrants to the electoral rolls. Their conservative estimate is that they will win 230 seats. They would be surprised if they win less that 200 seats and Trinamool alone wins less than 170.
Maharaja: Who would get surprised? I think there is a possibility that all will be surprised: say the communists get 130, Trinamool gets 145 and Congress gets 19. Then, the communists can still be in effective power.
Sanjay: You can get your surprise in just 4 days. Please be a patient, Maharaja.
Maharaja: What about the charges of black money use, the impending rise if gas and fuel prices, continued high inflation rate, etc? Are these not going to hurt the rivals of the communists?
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. All these and other factors have worked themselves out. Current assessments are just the feeling of the politicians about what the voters have done. Voters may not have revealed the whole Truth that would be known only on May 13. But that may not be the end of the Bengal Kurushetra.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
16. Exit Polls Exit Communists
Maharaja: What happened in the Final Sixth Round polling, Sanjay?
Sanjay: The polling in 14 constituencies supervised Election Commission’s officials with security support of 35 central and state government security police personnel for each voter has confirmed the success of the Election Commission to ensure a free and fair democratic election in a by and large peaceful environment in West Bengal for the first time in two decades, if not for the first time in five decades. Between 1960-1977, the Congress and Naxal-Maoists could not allow Bengal to exercise their voting rights freely and fairly without fear and from the eighties to the first decade of the second millennium; the communists would rig the elections and drive non-loyal voters out of electoral rolls and polling booths through a reign of sponsored terrorism. As far as elections are concerned, the hero of this election in 2011 is the Election Commission: they have given a sea burial to the political forces that developed the science and art of capturing votes and voters by mafia power - I hope these forces and practices have met their grave in the Bay of Bengal - never to return again.
Maharaja: Sanjay, you are a novice. Political wars has and will always be the bed rock of all unfair means, manipulation, falsehood and brutality: there is nothing unfair and foul play in Wars. Elections are political wars. This time the Election Commission has outwitted the politicians and the election result manipulators - but next time they are likely to be outwitted - the desire to win elections is so strong that wits flock to politicians to help them win the elections by hook and crook. You stop your lecture on democracy and let me the progress of the Kurushetra War. Do exit polls show any hope for my dear communists?
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. There is lot of hope. First. results of exit polls conducted in 9 districts by 24 Ghanta Bengali News channel that has 100% of the market share of communist viewer segment (probably, even Ganasaktui, the communists’ popular daily is yet to reach 100% readership in the communist-readership market segment), shows that 47 would go to the communists, 38 would be bagged by Trinamool- Congress combine, 3 to others and in the remaining 11 the exit poll does not indicate a clear winner. Thus, if the 9 districts’ 99 seats are any indicator, we can hope that the communists will definitely bag 141 seats and the Trinamool Congress combine 114. Of the 30 or so seats where the exit polls may not indicate clear winners, the communists need to be lucky to win only injust7 seats to get majority. This shows that the communists can really retain power, even with a razors edge majority.
Maharaja: What about other exit polls?
Sanjay: Before those, Maharaja, you must know what Gautam Deb the main TV face of the communists had said about such opinion polls and exit polls. Having described the performance of the Election Commission as ‘Moor or less, Well done’, he has said that he believed that exit polls are scientific but often their predictions are wrong. So, this applied science is not really credible. And most importantly he continued to believe that the communists would get majority in the West Bengal Assembly for the eighth time in a row.
Maharaja: That is good. But does he not think the 24 Ghanta exit polls credible even though they are scientific?
Sanjay: Probably, he does not think that the exit polls have a reasonable enough probability of proving correct: because often they have not found to be wide off the actual results by big margins. So, maybe he thinks that the communists would exceed majority by a big margin wining in total close to 170 seats out of the 294.
Maharaja: That’s great. Do you think there is any chance of Gautam Deb going wrong and the communists failing to retain majority?
Sanjay: No, Sir, I am most incompetent to judge the chance of Gautam Deb going wrong in expecting the communists retaining majority. But as many as seven exit polls (other than the incomplete 24 Ghanta one) predicts the failure of the communists to retain power, The maximum that these polls give seats to the communists is 122 and the minimum 57, the average being 76 or so. So, there is no chance according to the seven exit polls for an eighth communist dominated government in West Bengal. So, if you want to calculate the chances of Gautam Deb being correct, given that there are two possibilities, the a priority probability is 50%. Now you can adjust the a priori probability in the light of additional information available from these exit polls, the chances reduces to say about 16%.
Maharaja: That is a fairly low chance.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. Fairly low chance. But an event with a low chance of 1% does take place over repeated trials. And, it may happen in the first trial itself. So, hope for the best for the communists but prepare for the Worst.
Maharaja: But what does the exit polls talk about Trinamool?
Sanjay: Four of the exit polls predicts seats for Trinamool as follows: 128, 152, 180 and 181 that gives an average of 160 - absolute majority by a decent margin to form government on its own. If you take all the seven exit polls, the Trinamool-Congress combine should get a minimum of 187 and a maximum of 225 - roughly two-thirds to fur-fifths majority).
Maharaja: That’s a sweeping out of the communists, my God!
Sanjay: Yes, the probability of that happening may also be low.
Maharaja: Who will then lead the communists?
Sanjay: Maybe some of the leaders will win but the followers would desert or become inactive. Exit polls show. Buddhadev Bhattacharya may lose ad so will Asim Dasgupta and Nirupam Sen. According to one poll Gautam Deb will scrape through, according another he might lose by a small margin. But, why Sir, do you worry about which leader will win or which will win? In just 72 hours from now, we will know the final results. Just hold on and enjoy the entertainment on the TV about the relevance of communists in India, with exit polls showing the communists defeat in Kerala.
Friday, May 13, 2011
17. Sweet Dreams The Night Before Results
Maharaja: Sanjay, I have been suffering Nightmares for so many days now. This has started spoiling my day time also after the exit polls predicting disaster for my dear communist comrades and the consequential disaster that Bengal may face if the Trinamool-Congress combine starts ruling the State.
I need some strong medicine from your words today so that I can enjoy sweet dreams this last night before the election results start pouring; otherwise I won’t be able to face the TV on the unlucky 13th morning.
Sanjay: Maharaja, you deserve a good night’s sleep with sweet early morning dreams to give company to millions of Bengal residents glued to the TV as progress of counting are reported from various counting centers and the political analysts start interpreting the results.
Maharaja: So, now that there is ceasefire this evening, share with me a good, strong medicinal verbose to become happy even if for a night.
Sanjay: Sir, you have been too attached to your communist comrades because of your long association with them. You still have strong desire that the communists retain power in Bengal. That is why the unfavourable exit polls have affected your mind and body so adversely. You are not able to use your intellect correctly. You have not been able to keep your emotions under control. Fears are pulling you down. This has been happening to all Communists in Bengal, their supporters here and the party colleagues dependent on West Bengal and Kerala to justify their existence. This is silly.
Maharaja: Why do you call this silly?
Sanjay: If you experience nightmares in apprehension of a communist defeat, it is silly. If your comrades say that the useless, probably motivated, exit poll results that have proved repeatedly wrong in the past are being deliberately highlighted by the media to undermine the morale of the communists’ party members and supporters at the grass-root level, they are being silly. You people do not believe in God and yet are dedicated to the uplift of the believers, specially those among them who are economically poor. This is good. But you do not have to a believer to read, understand apply the principles of Gita. These may have been depicted as coming from the human incarnation of God, but these are manufactured by the best brains available at the time they were manufactured. The principles of Gita in the more non-religious, and, intellectually scientifically far more solid than Karl Marx’s scribbling out of frustrations with the social order as prevailing at his time and drove him out of his native land.
Maharaja: Now do not criticise the only scientific, infallible theories of Marx in a round about fashion the way you are doing. It hurts us when you show Marx as inferior to some poet who grafted another poor poet’s lecture into Mahabharata at the Kurushetra session.
Sanjay: Believe me Sir; I do not intend to hurt you. I am trying to get you out of the mental and intellectual disease that you created for yourself. Just listen carefully to me.
Maharaja: Okay. Go on.
Sanjay: You know that there is no way we can change the results that are going to come out tomorrow. These are already cast ballots contained in the single, secured database of each Electronic voting machine used in the elections. So, whether the communists or Mamata will win has already been decided: it is only that you do not know what these results precisely are. So, why should you lose sleep over what you cannot control or alter?
Maharaja: I should not but I am not able to do so.
Sanjay: Yes, this is not covered by Marx’s writings. So better try to find out yourself. How long will you have the association with your dear communist comrades or Mamata? Not for long as you cannot avoid death. Why do you have to remain attached to the future of the communists? Have such attachment has succeeded in stopping Soviet Russia from breaking up or the Chinese from exporting cheap goods to the USA to keep their labour employed, giving loans to the US to fight wars everywhere and support Pakistan in her attempts to organize terrorist attacks on India?
Maharaja: One day, the entire World will become communist.
Sanjay: Maybe. But one day the entire planned may get destroyed or human species may become extinct. So, why get attached to such one day salvation like the believers of God. Better give up such fairy tale dreams from your system. Look only at more shorter time horizons.
Maharaja: Okay. I give up.
Sanjay: Fine. Now you automatically give up your attachment to communism or the communists.
Maharaja: How? I do not give up my attachment?
Sanjay: You will still continue to dream that the communists will rule Bengal for ever? Why? at least of 40%-49% of the people in West Bengal always voted against the communists. You do not have any feeling for these people? Are they not your countrymen and human beings?
Maharaja: Yes, they are also my loved ones. Their hearts should also be won over by my communist comrades.
Sanjay: That is good. But do the communists have to win over all your countrymen by being in the power to rule them?
Maharaja: No. But if they are in power it helps to bring benefits to poor people and win them over.
Sanjay: How significant is the percentage of population your comrades have been able to win over in 34 years? Have not poor people complained of suffering from your comrade’s rule? Are you not aware of communist mastans and their protégé businessmen/ women families taking over land from poor farmers in Rajarhat, Singur, Nandigram and oppressing people elsewhere?
Sanjay: Yes, I am aware. But if you are in power such things happen here and there. You should ignore such things in a broader perspective.
Maharaja: You are not blind merely because you cannot see through your eyes. You have made yourself blind intellectually and mentally to ignore such atrocities on the poor. How can you ignore the State helping a rich Hindu father intervene in the lives of a young family of his daughter legally married to a Muslim boy who after severe harassment meted out to him was found dead along the Railway track? Do you see this as part of your Communist vision as such things happen?
Maharaja: No, this is bad. o communist can allows such things to happen whether in power or not. My comrades failed to protect the young couples because they were in power and did not care about such stray incidents. It is not correct.
Sanjay: So, if the communist comrades are out of power for some period after enjoying power for 34 years in a row, why should you be worried? Cannot communists do good while being out of office? Cannot they do their cleansing (Suddhhikaran) by staying out of power voluntarily for some years?
Maharaja: Yes, they can and probably should. Power has been both used and abused in 34 years. Abuse of power is a malignant disease. Comrades should go for radiation therapy and surgery by being in the hospital that they do not have control - that is remaining out of the powers of the State.
Sanjay: So, you are no longer concerned with your comrades losing power as you love all poor people who still suffer and needs to be won over without the use of State power.
Maharaja: Absolutely, I am comfortable with these thoughts at least for now. I am feeling better.
Sanjay: Now, you must get the last dose of the medicine to get fully liberated to enjoy your TV entertainment tomorrow.
Maharaja: Give me the last dose before I get into sleep.
Sanjay: Sure, Your Excellency. Look these exit polls however scientific are most prone to wide errors. So, you do not believe in them: they are as good as your comrade’s enemies’ wild guesses, hiding their day dreams and media created hypes. They become true once in a while by fluke, not because of their scientific methods.
Maharaja: But all the seven exit polls predict Mamata’s win and the other one is unsure about who will win.
Sanjay: All are exit polls and all are subject to the same problem of measurement/ observation and sampling errors that makes it virtually impossible to find the Truth. There are many factors that may make the poll caster wrong this time. The percentage of voting has been significantly higher this time, especially if we take into account that incidence of false voting, voter entry barriers and other forms manipulations and rigging has been considerable reduced. The newly enrolled voters form about 10% of the electorate. The women voters have cast more votes this time. Your comrades have after a long time done a serious job of contacting voters and soliciting votes. The voters committed to communists did not take any chances by staying away from the polling booths.
Maharaja: What does all this mean?
Sanjay: All this means that exit poll under the radically different circumstances will lead to forecast results that can be wide off the actual results. Most important, there was a strong Mamata Wave, but the way this has been hyped by the media, could lead to a different pattern of lying in interviews than in the past. When there is strong hype, many people lie to hide the fact of their going against the wind. In which way the samples has got biased is impossible to guess and even know later. So, there is no reason to believe any of these forecasts being accurate just because most of them forecast similar results.
Maharaja: That is a great comfort. I am now fully cured. I can now have a good night’s sleep, have a quota of sweet dreams, no nightmares and enjoy the TV entertainment as an unbiased viewer.
Sanjay: Good night Sir. All the best for the 13th May.
Maharaja: Good night.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
18. War Ends Hoping Return of Democracy
Sanjay: Maharaja, the War has come to an end with the Election Commission announcing the winners for each of the 294 constituencies. I hope you could enjoy the entertainment that the TV channels provided throughout the day on 13th May.
Maharaja: Yes, I did enjoy the entertainment. Thanks you for the medicines you gave me on the previous evening. I realise that unless one rids oneself of expectations and emotional attachment, one cannot really enjoy the entertainment that elections generate. You helped me. Thanks again. But I am sorry for the communist comrades who could muster only 63 wins as against 185 of Trinamool and 42 of their election alliance partner the Congress. They seemed to have been shocked by the thumping drubbing by the voters and never had imagined that their dream of the Eighth successive Left-front Government shattered within 120 minutes of the counting of votes.
Sanjay: Yes, the Chief of Command, Buddhadev fell along with his stalwart Lieutenants like Nirupam Sen, Gautam Deb and Asim Dasgupta among 26 of his ministers who lost.
Maharaja: My comrades should now try to learn lessons from the course of events and the impact of responses to the emerging environment over the last decade and more.
Sanjay: I am sure they will. They have accepted the peoples’ verdict with humility and are going to review their electoral debacle, find out the reasons for their failure to get peoples’ support and adopt corrective steps.
Maharaja: I am not so sure. I do not see them really prepared as yet to do all these with any seriousness. Their arrogance prevents them to accept the Truth. of their inherent failings, weaknesses and incompetence.
Sanjay: How do you say so?
Maharaja: Those who accept people’s verdict against them do not shout on the roof top that they accept the peoples’ verdict. Saying so is an insult to democracy because a political party in a democracy is supposed to have given up the right of not accepting the peoples’ verdict. Of course if the party has reasons to believe that the elections were manipulated and rigged, they will say that the election has been rigged and manipulated and hence the election results do not reflect the people’s verdict. But this is not the case here. So, why they have to say that they are accepting the verdict? It reflects only a reflection of their arrogance.
Sanjay: Arrogance of stating that they are being kind enough to the people who have voted against them and for the rival party that has own.
Maharaja: The communist comrades continued arrogance is a disgrace to democracy. It also shows that the communists of Bengal are interested in using democracy only for their own interest: democracy by the dictates of the party, by the dictatorial coterie of the party leadership and for the party to decide what is good for the party if it is in power and democracy of violent agitation by the opposition party for sabotaging the interest of the country. They do not want and, capable of, violent revolution to usher in communist era but willing to manipulate democracy to establish communist dictatorship by winning political elections.
Sanjay: But they say that they believe in inner party democracy and will find out what went wrong that there was a poor response to the voters to their campaigns.
Maharaja: That is the standard methodology of the communists to tell the people that the people have acted foolishly by voting Mamata’s Trinamool to power with close to 80% majority for their alliance.
Sanjay: But they are arranging for assessment of the feedback on the causes of their defeat from all districts of West Bengal and deliberate on the most important reasons for their failure.
Maharaja: That is a hoax. They will do all these drama and then produce an assessment note that would be leaked to the press and publicised by their own papers like Ganasakti. Everyone knows what they are going to say in their assessment.
Sanjay: How do you know what they are going to say in regard to their great beating?
Maharaja: If you are trained in Marxism, you know how to explain anything that happened happens and will happen. There is a standard communist software program for that: you just have to add currently usable English along with the spice of Marxist jargon. Just note what they are going to say.
1. We have lost because only a 48% part of those who voted for the Evil forces: 42% of the voters wanted the communists to come back. The new voters were about 10% of the population with whom they somehow missed to communicate with and some voters from minority community and the women were fooled by the Trinamool Congress led by a cunning woman without any useful education and culture, the communists lost 8% of the votes. If they had got these votes, they would have won the majority of the seats with 50% share of votes.
2. These 8% of the voters really did not understand what they were doing: they got influenced by clever marketing of the conniving evil forces of Trinamool and Congress using large scale black money to allure voters by false propaganda. The party machinery tried its best to overcome this false propaganda against the communists by using most of the print and electronic media. The evil forces also killed the grass-root level communist workers in large numbers through violence.
3. The false propaganda led to an incorrect interpretation of the communist ideals, ideology, policies and performance. The people could not understand the good things they had done by distributing 1.3 lakh acre of land to the landless farmers, by trying to bring Tata’s Nano Car project and foreign investment led chemical hub as a part of the communist strategy of resurgence of industry in West Bengal., by their use of the combined forces of police and harmad forces to drive away the Maoist terrorists, by their pro-poor policies to make West Bengal one among the Indian states leading in terms of per capita GDP growth, provision of health and education facilities to the children of West Bengal and expansion of road and housing infrastructure, by their withdrawal of support to the UPA-1 government to keep the dreaded, capitalist suckers like the America at bay.
Sanjay: You are right. They have been saying all this over the last several months. They believed that people were not appreciating their good work because bulk of the voters were not fully aware, were misled by the Trinamool Congress and got lured away by black money and threat of violence. That is interesting analysis. but already known. Will there be any new highlights?
Maharaja: Yes, they are going to say that the Election Commission had turned a blind eye to various kinds of manipulation and poll regulation violations. They will say that because of 34 years in power, bad elements had crept into their parties, tarnishing their image in the minds of voters. But they are only and real friends of the people and have the competence to deliver good to the people. It is unfortunate that the people brought the evil to power and the people will soon realize this. Then the people will have to bring the comrades back into power. In any case they are not going to allow the winners to rule by opposing with all their might to stop them from pursuing anti-people policies that are causing and will cause inflation, unemployment, communal tensions, violence and all round sufferings to the people along with American exploitation. But all this are a joke for the people and a serious belief by the communists.
Sanjay: So, they will continue with their Marxist jealousy, hatred with arrogance, vengeance and inciting violence.
Maharaja: That is what they will try. They are failing to realize that West Bengal is a small part of a Sovereign Democratic State of India and that West Bengal is not a full-fledged State like Egypt or Libya where Mubarak and Gaddafi style repression of peoples’ revolt is impossible to be organised by the ruling dictators. They are not correctly reading the current history and trends: they just will not be able to return to their old techniques of fooling the public as they could do half a century ago.
Sanjay: What do you recommend to your beloved communist comrades who failed miserably in fair and free elections with close to 85% voter turnout?
Maharaja: It is high time they open clean up their ideals, ideological beliefs, and reluctance to see the Truth and Reality. They should shake themselves from day-dreams and night-mares and their addiction to snobbery and first accept the facts that emerged over the last decade. They should admit that they have failed in so many ways because of their incompetence and arrogance:
1. They had pursued economic policies that delivered very little to the West Bengal’s industrial and economic regeneration.
2. They had destroyed the State’s finances with gross indiscipline and created a huge debt burden.
3. They had destroyed the quality and education in West Bengal with foolish experiments like banning English for primary education and systematically replacing top educationist talents in the management of education by those who are loyal to communists irrespective of their talent and competence.
4. They had been far from honest and were corrupt to the extreme by following nepotism and favouritism everywhere abusing the powers of the State.
5. They had made the Police forces subservient to the cause of the Party and made the police work as per the directions of their party functionaries at all levels.
6. They had developed and raised a cadre of armed goons to terrorise people and establish the rule of party functionaries in various localities and capable of large -scale rigging elections in various dishonest and unfair methods ways so long as the Election Commission did not find out effective solutions to make it virtually impossible for them to continue their dishonesty.
7. They had failed to remove dishonest, corrupt people for the party and from the association of corrupt parties.
8. They had insulted and systematically discriminated against those who do not sympathise with or do not subscribe to Marxist ideologies.
9. They had wrongfully used physical force to repress farmers and others who opposed their policies and practices.
10. They had been arrogant enough not to admit their mistakes, failures and incompetence in different spheres of party activities and government administration.
Sanjay: That is a long list of embarrassing admissions.
Maharaja: The list would be longer. But I stopped at 10 because in any case the communist comrades are not at all trained to admitting their failures, weaknesses and incompetence. If they were, they would have made a list of 20 such points, deliberated in the meetings of their Committees and made their views public saying they plead guilty or otherwise on each of these points instead of beating around the bush and trying to say they have done better than other States and other political parties.
Sanjay: What do you think will happen if they do not do as you recommend.
Maharaja: They will increasingly lose relevance in West Bengal and Indian politics. If they do not substantially reform themselves, completely cleanse the party from arrogance, corruption, violence and manipulation, and do not substantially upgrade the analytical and empirical basis of the ideological perspective that would attract the Trust of the people who would prefer not to show allegiance to Marx, Lenin and Mao and those Indians who value individual freedom and liberty. My comrades will then struggle to exist by converting the communist parties into run-of-the-mill Indian political parties of the second tier behind the first tier parties like the BJP and the Congress. This is the writing on the Wall.
Sanjay: You mean they cannot hope to come back to power in West Bengal if they do not radically transform?
Maharaja: No. They can very well return to power. But they have to await serious failure in performance of the Trinamool and Mamata. And, in that case they will continue to be another political party of incompetence and dishonesty that they had been for the last two decades or so. The 2016 and 2020 Elections in West Bengal will not then be another Kurushetra between the evil and the electorate but Shumbhu-Nishambhu war between two rival forces of Evil.
Sanjay: That means the Bengal Kurushetra has come to an end.
Maharaja: Yes, if Mamata fails to deliver what the majority of voters desired: not to have an incompetent, corrupt, oppressive and arrogant party to rule over Bengal and pull down Bengal in the League of Indian States that the communists have been successful at. We will know soon within 200 days at the earliest and 1000 days from 20th May 2011 - the beginning of the Phase 17 of the current Kurushetra War between the forces of Evil and the oppressed people at large who hoped Mamata will
deliver the Good.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
19. Bengal Breathes in Fresh Air of Governance At Last
Sanjay: Maharaja, the first non-communist, left government has taken office in West Bengal.
Maharaja: I know that the people were glued to the TV on 13 May from 9 AM to midnight when the portfolios of new ministers were announced. Great show. Now I appreciate what you sang 3 months back and I was very annoyed then.
Sanjay: What song did annoy you?
Maharaja: Yes, you sang something like this:
‘Aajee Bongodesher Paschimete A Key Ashonee
Kothaa Hothey Udoy Holen Mamata Ramani,
Ogo Marks Tomar Budhha Biman Key Jay Koray.
Tomar Baam Kaanpay Ghaspooler Santraashay Poray.,
Ogo Marx Tomar Doorgo Ebbar Bhenge Na Poray!.
I was annoyed because you suggested the downfall of my communist comrades.
Sanjay: But some of my communist friends liked my use of words like Ashoni and Santrash while referring to Trinamool. My anti-communist friends had remarked that it was a good attempt to make a parody of a Tagore song on Bengal.
Maharaja: Yes, they might not have noticed the underlying direction of your parody and enjoyed the entertainment part. But today I realize that you were trying to capture the direction of the Kurushetra. I guess you would now have a new parody to sing.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. The 13th May TV shows and live reports led me to modify the parody.
Maharaja: Sing the new one.
Sanjay: Here you are:
‘Aajee Bongodesher Hridoy Jeetay Mamata Romonee,
Didi Saee MukhyoMantri Roopay Asheen Holay Aaponee.
Ogo Marks Tomar Buddho Bimaan Laajay Naa Moray.
Tomaar Doorgo Ebaar Bhanglo Jobay Mamata Jhoray.
Ogo Marks Tomar Mathaa Khutay Baam Naa Moray.
Daan Haathay Taar Kajayer Nishan, Baa Haath Bhulay Baam Kirton
Dooee Chaonay Drooto Gati Chotaay Aamlaa Mahakaron.
Ogo Marks Tomar Bhakto Mookhay Kothaa Naa Soray.’
Maharaja: You seem to bowing down in prayer to a new heroine! What do you want to suggest now with this new parody?
Sanjay: In the next six months will see a new battle of wits between Mamata with her extraordinary pace and chasing and the sleeping Bengali ‘Hocchay Hobay’ work culture of 60 months for a year. The other battle would be between Mamata’s agile determination to sweep out all illegitimate weapons and the communist need to replenish the stocks in their secret armories and garrisons for the future proletariat’s armed revolution against the stooges of capitalism. Your communist comrades could not stage a come back through democratic process and they cannot just rely on democratic process waiting for Mamata’s failures to accumulate: now they have no alternative but to usher in the armed revolution to regaining power of the State. It is very difficult at this stage to predict when and how the communists would get frustrated enough to start their fight again.
Maharaja: How are the followers of the communists’ behaving.?
Sanjay: They are currently keeping a low key profile, avoiding confrontation in public and hoping that the leaders will show the way sooner than later. The leaders are willing to wait for suitable conditions to arise to lunch their offensive. They hope that these conditions will appear soon.
Maharaja: How will such conditions arise?
Sanjay: The seeds of Bengali reversal (resistance) from Path of Change (Parivartan) that Mamata wishes to tread are already there in Bengali characteristics. Just wait for a while to see how Mamata’s ministers become sick unable to work such long hours week after week and year after year. This together with the lazy bureaucracy and the general govt. employees will realize that Mamata is treading a path of huge toil and personal sacrifices. As they fail to keep pace with Mamata, she will become progressively frustrated and all the more step again and again on the accelerators. This will result in failure to deliver what Mamata promised and continue to promise to radically change the face of West Bengal. As failures become perceptible and the Mamata’s own people and the bureaucracy starts falling sick, the communists will get their new opportunity to win over more and more people. Mamata will then face weakening base of support for change that forces people to work hard with agility and competence on a sustained basis with commitment and personal sacrifices. Bengalis are not used to this.
And, the conflict between the hurricane like pace at which Mamata wants and needs to work for installing change and the Bengali work culture and work infrastructure was apparent on the very first day of Mamata’s government. She commented on the infrastructure at the Secretariat. She also said that she will value effectiveness of work performance from government employees irrespective of the political colour of individuals.
Maharaja: You are raising hopes for my communist comrades.
Sanjay: No, sir. I am not raising any hope. I am just pointing out the opportunities that your comrades are banking upon to come after the initial euphoria over the installation of the new government dies down.
Maharaja: So, this Kurushetra will not be able to achieve the results that the people desired.
Sanjay: That is just one possibility of the current revolution through ballot boxes failing. But I must also point out the other possibility. Mamata has grown in her leadership effectiveness over the years. Her exposure to administration and dealing with cabinet colleagues, bureaucrats, party workers and the public has been qualitatively far better than all of your communist comrades. She has worked under four different Prime Ministers. And, she is a great learner. Her intelligent quotient and emotional quotient are strong. She personally works with very high missionary zeal that is highly contagious, communicable, contractible, transmittable and transmissible, especially among the younger people. So, Mamata may be successful quick time to get the crucial minimum critical mass of competent, agile, diligent and supportive cabinet colleagues, party workers and activists, bureaucrats, government employees and advisors. Once this critical mass develops, it would be difficult to stop Mamata on her path of bringing about the required change in work culture, work attitude that is capable of delivering performance and results expected by the people at large.
Maharaja: If this second possibility has a strong chance of materialising, what should my communist comrades must do now?
Sanjay: Last time you had already mentioned what they are supposed to do now: publicly admit their misdeeds, deficiency, ignorance, incompetence and gross failure in performance. Second, get real exposure to what is happening in the country elsewhere and in the World outside so as to get out of the frog-in-the-well syndrome and adopt a broader perspective that enables them to embrace change before changes destroy them, Third, gather competence, capability to work harder for productive results for the people. If Mamata succeeds in her mission of radical change for West Bengal, your communist comrades will need to substantially upgrade them in terms intellectual, professional, work productivity and effectiveness to match the requirements of the emerging world-wide environment instead of remaining confined to narrow world of interpreting and getting succour from Marx and Marxist literature and remaining opportunistic to grab State powers to abuse them for the party’s benefit. and fool the people by throwing crumbs at them here and there.
Maharaja: After the Election Kurushetra War, peace must have returned. Has the Shanti Parva in MahaBangla begun?
Sanjay: We shall take up this subject in our next session, Maharaja, if you so permit.
Maharaja: Okay, Sanjay.
Sunday, May 29, 2011
20. Getting Into Peace Post Kurushetra
Sanjay: Peace continues to elude Bengal. Political Murders are back again though remain at low key.
The incidence of political violence and murder has declined substantially during the Election Kurushetra, but has increased a bit after the new Mamata Government was installed in West Bengal. This time most victims of political violence reportedly are CPM activists/ supporters, though the murders of Trinamool supporters/ activists continue to be reported.
Maharaja: CPM is complaining seriously for the first time to a Government of the hitherto opposition. Natural. But unlike the earlier CPM government which complained that Trinamool and Maoist goons were killing the ruling party people, Trinamool is not complaining in a similar way. Rather, the Trinamool party has publicly appealed to all to desist from taking law into own hands and cooperate with the police, besides giving stern warming to party supporters and members of stern action by the party against those who get involved in political violence. The Trinamool MLAs and party functionaries have been instructed to be alert and stop the supporters from violence. The new government has publicly instructed the police and administrators not to let murders hide and asked them to remain neutral to political parties and act independently without political influence while dealing with complaints and taking action against perpetrators of violence.
Sanjay: Mamata Bannerjee, the Chief Minister has asked the police officials to directly contact her over hot line in case any attempt is made by political parties to interfere with police action to control violence and take action against criminals engaged in political violence. Mamata has also appealed for peace to the citizens, asked his party workers to stop harassing or victimising left front supporters unlike the former Chief Minister, Buddhadev Bhattacharya who would only say “this wasn’t correct, and should not happened” whenever his party supporters had been reported to be involved in such murders/ killings/ violence had taken place.
Maharaja: Despite all the efforts of the Government and Trinamool leaders, killing incidences are being reported daily by the same Press and electronic media that the CPM has been decrying as being loyal to Mamata and Trinamool. There are two parts of the violence that is taking place now. First, stray incidents of revengeful killing of one party supporter by another party’s supporters. This seems to be inevitable as the goons of the political parties are still strong in their anger against opponents during the elections in certain pockets. It seems almost impossible for political leaders to stop these killings except by allowing the police and the courts to deal with them and recover unlicensed lethal weapons in possession of the goons.
Sanjay: The second source of political violence has its origins in the system of looting, illicit distribution and smuggling of lethal weapons into the hands of mafias and goons sponsored by the political parties during the previous Governments, reportedly often with the help of a powerful part of the police and district administration under the influence of the ruling parties at local levels. The Election Commission during the three months or so of their heightened election process activity in the State had forced the State administration and police to embark upon a hunt for recovering illegal weapons from the possession of political mafias and goons. The result was a very big haul of captured weapons, though now it transpires that even such a big haul was an insignificant part of the stock of weapons with the political goons and mafias. The new government has instructed the police to continue the campaign of arms recovery diligently. And, just out of fear that the CPM sponsored goons can again cause danger to the common people, the villagers and residents, often with Trinamool activists leading them, are taking this opportunity to collect in front of the houses and offices of CPM leaders/ activists/ goons and then requesting the local police for search and seizure of arms. So far no incident of similar type has been reported where the CPM leaders have organised common people to force the police to search and seize arms from Trinamool local offices and houses of Trinamool leaders/ activists/ goons.
Maharaja: The CPM has alleged that the Trinamool supporters are falsely implicating CPM party functionaries and activists by placing weapons into their offices and homes by force and then asking the policy to conduct search and seizure operations. It is now difficult for CPM to convince the common people that their allegations are often true rather than being false. People would tend to have a perception that the stock of illegal arms with CPM goons were much more than the other political party goons. In any case, the recovery of arms - from any place is important to the peace process, irrespective of whether these arms were in the possession of goons sponsored by party X or party Y.
Sanjay: Ideally, all parties should have themselves given out the exhaustive list of places/ persons where/ with whom they suspect illegal weapons are stocked to the Police and simultaneously publishing such lists in their websites. They are not yet prepared to do this as yet because they might be still hoping for the return of the earlier environment where they can use armed goons and mafias. It would have been the best policy for the CPM to weed out bad elements from the party and in the process improve the image of the party. Rather, the leaders are planning deputations/ agitations to protect their party supporters from harassment by Trinamool in the name of arms recovery campaigns. Had they offered to recover the weapons from their goons and mafia themselves with police help, the other political parties would have been forced to follow suit. CPM leadership is wasting another opportunity to come out clean and bury the common perception of armed Harmmad teams sponsored and protected by them once for all. By not taking a vigorous proactive step of voluntarily recovering arms from the houses of their own goons/ mafias/ activists and their offices, CPM is only risking greater damage to the image of the party.
Maharaja: In the meanwhile, the new legislative assembly must pass a new bill on recovery of illegal arms from political party offices and political party members’ residences, making it obligatory to register all offices and members addresses with the police with proper proof and evidence and announce the name of the occupier of party offices who can be charge-sheeting in case of illegal stocking of arms in the party offices.
Sanjay: Peace does not come from the skies: political parties need to commit to honest actions to eradicate those who pose danger to peace.
Sunday, May 29, 2011
21. Upgrading Post-mortem Diagnostic Technology
Maharaja: The Indian Prime Minister reportedly had suggested that CPM learns lessons from the great debacle it suffered in the State Assembly Elections in West Bengal and Kerala. And, in order to learn the appropriate lessons, the West Bengal CPM Leadership is indeed conducting a detailed postmortem of its unprecedented landslide fall in the elections. It has reportedly issued detailed questionnaire in which they expect the local level party functionaries from pachyats to districts to report. These reports will be scrutinised and evaluated at the State level compilation and consolidation stage before the final diagnostic report is deliberated at the all-India level of the Party.
Sanjay: This indeed is very good and one hopes that this time the Party will not come up with a rationalisation of their defeat in terms of blaming the environment like the opportunity created for the Trinamool and Congress to form an alliance, the delays in weeding out bad elements that infested the Party from outside and the inability of the grass-roots level party activists to establish contact and effectively with the common people. And, one hopes that they do not cite the story that the CPM has
been able to circulate convincingly among its committed brain-washed voters that the EVM manipulation is a factor for their defeat (even the Americans do not use EVM is the buzz sentence you hear from CPM supporters these days: so they like the Americans at least for one count - paper ballot system that the CPM had learnt the techniques to manipulate).
Maharaja: Hopefully, the Party would try to learn why is it that 48% of the enlarged number of voters voted against the CPM, on a scientific basis? The question is not just that 42% voted in favour of the left and the total number of votes for the left had increased and the CPM lost marginally: had the left collected 6% points more of the votes they would have been back to power. That would be just analyses of how they could have own. After 34 years of uninterrupted power, the CPM should not have failed to win the support of at least 66% of the voters to justify their continuance in power.
Sanjay: Winning elections and getting majority of seats in the Assembly to form Government is the prime objective of any political power. But for the CPM and the left who sold themselves as a pro-poor party cannot just strive for clinging to power but needed to win the hearts of an overwhelming part of the electorate. That only would have justified CPM’s claim that they were the most poor friendly, the most effective in providing the maximum help to the peop0le below the poverty line, the most secular, the most honest and clean, the most peaceful, the least arrogant, the least oppressive, the least manipulative and the most ardent advocate and practitioner of democracy as well as the most effective in ensuring good governance. That they may be perceived to be so by at most 42% of the voters is not enough. They needed to be perceived as such a good party by at least two-thirds of the voters even if some of these voters might still would not have voted for them. The issue is one of the CPM-brand. Getting 42% of the votes after 34 years of uninterrupted rule is as good as getting 48% of the votes and getting 230 seats to come back to power for the CPM. If that is not the case, then CPM is no different a party than the DMK or AIDMK or BSP or TDP or RJD - all of which are in the business of capturing and abusing State power for the respective parties and their henchmen and loyalists. CPM seems to have already become such a political party and only interested in managing to win elections to get into power: it has failed win mass popularity by deliverance of proper governance, rule of law, fairness, peace and progressive prosperity of all the people, especially the people at or below the poverty line, even after enjoying State power for more than three decades. The CPM is thus another run of the mill political party basically interested in abuse of power, nepotism, corruption and oppression of the weak to enlarge their kitty of money through exploitation.
Maharaja: Had CPM been a party with a difference, it would have not talked about ‘turning back’ after the 2009 Lok Shava elections debacle in West Bengal. It would have rather seriously considered whether they are really a sustainable political product for the people of West Bengal? It did not. It continued to rely merely on reports from its own cadres at lower levels including district level leaders. That these reports could not really assess the voters’ perception of the value of the CPM as a political party and a political idea, is surprisingly not acceptable as a logical possibility. When even a small section of the consumers start rejecting the product of a major producer, the producer begins worrying and try to innovate to meet customer needs rather than selling the same product.
Sanjay: But CPM apparently still thinks that they can continue to sell the product they have been selling so far irrespective of some voters not being inclined to buy such a product any longer. Merely because of the words ‘Communist’ and ‘Marxist’ in the name of the product the voters would not get convinced that the product CPM is of the quality and specifications that they would like to support and some people may get disgusted enough to try a new, untested product like the Trinamool.
Maharaja: If CPM was serious enough to maintain and increase their market share, it was not enough to practice entry barriers like stopping an alternative anti-CPM front by some way or the other including generating false fears in the minds of the voters about the quality of the new competing product, adopt predatory pricing policy by announcing freebies to people at the cost of the State exchequer, practice unfair techniques like scaring away voters from polling stations by using armed mafia forces, booth jamming, false voting, etc. CPM should have had built up strong competitiveness in the product it wishes to sell: there has not been any qualitative upgrading of the product in the last three decades while the voters have shown resistance to old, out-of-fashion, low quality products.
Sanjay: What CPM needs is an extensive survey of the tastes, preferences and aspirations of the voters and an analysis of the competitive relevance of CPM as a product in the market for votes. Even monopolies cannot survive for long without upgrading the product quality in response to shifting consumer demand patterns. CPM should have spent a few crores of rupees to commission a real market survey in West Bengal conducted by an independent professional agency of international standard to find what the voters expected from a political party and how far different political parties were perceived as being able to satisfy the voters of different segments in this respect.
Maharaja: That would have been the first step towards knowing the Truth on the ground and learning lessons. CPM has not taken this first step of upgrading the technology of postmortem of the death of the CPM product as it exists today in the face of competition and voters’ emerging tastes and preferences. It seems that CPM would take much longer time to learn about how to learn lessons from the reality of voters’ requirement and perceptions. CPM will not change in anticipation, will resist change and will wait until the external factors force it to change the hard way and at greater cost.
Sanjay: The trinamool should also learn from the Great War. They should also conduct frequent opinion polls to test how far they are able to satisfy the people and what the people expects. Star Ananda should continue with opinion polls on the popularity index of Mamata and the Trinamool led Government. That is the way Bengal needs to progress and remain focused on democracy and human rights. This will ensure that the dark days do not come again and the state gets into the hands of mafias and goons.
Monday, May 30, 2011
22. Chief Minister Selection: A Look at Resumes of Candidates
Maharaja: The State was in a serious trouble: it was facing armed struggle with guerilla warfare techniques in areas with forests and on the borders, it was running a huge debt burden and continuous budget deficits, its governance standards were pretty poor with all State-run hospitals unable to deliver medical and heath services required by the State, students of the State were running away to other States to pursue higher education of better quality and greater diversity, its police was both corrupt and in connivance with mafias and goons in possession of illegally procured lethal weapons, instead of serving the common man, the police was serving the rich and wealthy even if they illegally harassed poor relatives, the efficiency and productivity of the government employees were extremely low despite they being paid a very good salary and benefits to enjoy a standard of living that was few times better than the average standard of living of the low middle class and the poor, industry was stagnating in the State despite lots of land being forcibly taken away by the government. In some region of the State, some people had started movement for a separate independent State.
Sanjay: So,the citizens decided to appoint a new Chief Minister with a five year term so that the new Chief Minister can lead the State out of the morass and restore proper governance, financial strength, economic prosperity and peace. Applications were invited from willing candidates. Only two applicants showed willingness to take up the challenging task: B and M.
A Screening Committee was appointed to scrutinize the resume of the two candidates. They considered the different aspects of the resume and gave scores on a scale of 0 - 2 where 2 is better than 1 and 1 is better than 0. They gave the following appraisal report:
1. Physical ability to endure hard work: B=0, M=2 (M was younger by 10 years and works while jogging, besides having endured beating by the police)
2. Education Background: B=1‘, M= 1 (Both had masters degrees in subjects not attracting many bright students as do subjects like Physics, Mathematics, Statistics, Engineering, Micro-biology, Economics, Geography, Chemistry and Computer Science)
3. Post Qualification Scholastic Achievement: B=0, M= 1 (B had one publication while M authored a dozen or so books)
4. Extra-curricular activities:
(a) Sports: B=0, M=0 (B loves to see cricket matches and interfere with cricket associations, M worked as a sports minister).
(b) Fine Art & Culture: B=1, M=2 (B shows interest in attending film festivals, book fairs and Rabindra Sangeet performances, but M loves film heroes/ heroines, sings songs, recites poetry composed by great poets, besides being a painter whose paintings are purchased by local industrialists.)
5. Verbal Communication:
a) In Mother tongue: B=1, M=1 (B finds difficulty in recalling words, M is spontaneous but without sophistication in use of words)
b) In English: B=1, M=1 (both speaks in Benglish accent and grammar)
c) In National Language Hindi: B=0, M=1 (B avoids Hindi, M is not afraid to speak in Bhindi)
6. Past Work Experience:
a) In Chief Minister or Equivalent Rank: B=1, M=1 (B has a longer experience, M has higher federal level experience)
b) Exposure to varying types of bosses: B=0, M=2 (B worked under a single Chief Minister, while M worked under 4 different Federal Prime Ministers.
c) Variety of Experience in Coalition Government: B=0, M= 2 (B has only one type, M has at least three types)
7. Ability to form and lead political party: B=0, M=2
8. Ability to learn from mistakes: B=0, M=2 (B admits mistakes again and again but fails to avert same mistakes, M does not commit the same folly repeatedly)
9. Diversity of Philosophical & Revolutionary Heritage: B=1, M=2 (B depend on imported Marxist philosophy of dictatorship on behalf of 42% of the proletariat, M is proud of Indian, especially Bengali philosophers and revolutionaries and committed to American Abraham Lincoln’s doctrine of democracy of, by and for the people).
10. Mass Contact: B=1, M= 2 (B’s mass contact is indirect through junior leaders and occasional, M has direct and almost daily contact)
11. Honesty & Integrity: B=2, M=2
12. Sophistication of Attire: B=2, M=1.
13. Bad Habits: B=1, M=1 (B is a great smoker while M often breaks own security norms)
14. Ability to Envision Future: B=1, M=2
15. Ability to overcome Party Constraint: B=0, M=2 (B is dependent on his political party while the political party depends on M)
The Grand Score with equal weights to all dimensions: B=13, M=29.
But still the Screening Committee thought B should get grace marks of 16 considering the successful build up of the false high profile image of B in the minds of elite and local business class through Party promotion campaigns.
So, the final score the Committee awarded was B= 29/40 and M= 29/40.
Maharaja: It was a tie and the ultimate Selection Committee had to make up their minds. The organized a poll and B secured 42% against 48% secured by M.
But the selectors also chose the assistants for B and M. B got 62 while M secured 226.
The Selection Committee did not agree to award 16 grace marks to B. They chose M and M’s team for the State. The local business class bought Rs3 crore worth of paintings of M when they realised there was no need to take chances a few weeks before the Final Selection Committee would give their verdict.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
23. Where have those hearts gone?
Maharaja: Even as the new Government in West Bengal is working in the capital at break-neck speed to fix the manifold economic and administrative crises that the 34 year rule of the communists had gifted to the State, Ananda Bazar Patrika and The Telegraph, Kolkata report killings and oppression of political activists and their families in several rural areas: most of the suffers seems to be those who supported the CPM. The 24 Ghanta TV channel has been showing the helpless people affected by such incidents.
Sanjay: And, there is not yet any sign of the politicians, intellectuals and human activists rushing to the spot of accidents to protect them and sympathize with them. The Police, although freed from political party slavery by the new government is not yet agile enough to avert such incidents and protect some CPM activists who have been attracting revenge by Trinamool cadres because of the victims atrocities during the CPM rule. Perhaps the police in the districts have long lost the initiative of actions on their own having been goaded into action only by the CPM local leadership and sponsored mafias. The Police, according to the CPM leaders including Buddhadev Bhattacharyya, is hands in glove with the Trinamool activists organising such repression on CPM supporters/ activists, though there have been incidents where the Trinamool activists have suffered at the hands of allegedly CPM activists. For the first time in 35 years, CPM is now reaping the fruits of the seeds it had sowed in Police administration.
Maharaja: Unlike Mamata who used to rush to Singur and Nandigram to stand beside the people oppressed by the CPM sponsored mafia, named by her as Harnmad Bahini, the greatest shock of his life from the electoral debacle has so far confined Buddhadev to Kolkata urging the 42% of the voters to keep the Red Flag flying high and has not yet rushed to the spots to stand beside the adversely affected CPM supporters / activists.
Sanjay: It seems unfortunate that this time Mamata, the current Chief Minister is still fully tied up in solving the numerous thorny problems she has inherited from Buddhadev’s government and CPM party: she cannot has not now to rush to the rural areas to protect the afflicted families of the CPM activists/ harmad bahini members. Probably, she needs to put two half ministers on the job of curbing these political violence of taking revenge: the ministers could move around sensitive areas to stop such violence and continuously report the developments to Mamata: for continuing revenge mongering lead to resurgence of the major law and order problem created in the State by the former government and the CPM.
Maharaja: Intelligentsia, the singers, the stage actors, the performers of fine arts and human activists do not seem to be interested in stopping bloodshed. Nor are the TV channels rushing to spots with their cameras. True, the current incidents are unlike the incidents in the past when these were organised by the ruling party leadership to terrorise the opposition. What is happening now is the expression of pent-up rage against the long period of torture suffered by common rural folk. But, bloodshed and violence of any form and type needs to be avoided by civilized societies. The capable and socially responsible hearts should be fanning out to the sensitive areas in sustained peace missions. The great latent rage against the past oppressors currently without the backing of the State has to be diffused rather than allowing it get reflected in killings and violence.
Thursday, June 2, 2011
24. Public Change-Tracker: Both 42% and 48% Monitoring
Sanjay: Mamata Jhor (Trinamool Tornado) has swept the communists off to a small corner in the West Bengal State Assembly. That’s past and no longer exciting. But the Jhor continues with daily reports of Mamata’s diary of announcement of changes like the continuing shower of the monsoon soon to arrive in the State. Good that the new Government started in right earnest implementing through baby steps on the CHANGE it promised and getting it recorded through press briefings on a daily basis. But it would be difficult to monitor what really would be achieved as time passes. We need a simple tracker. The following is an attempt to devise on such Change Tracker:
Change baby step/s Latest status on implementation
1. Land back to farmers in Singur Study on finding Solution over.
Committee to suggest final solution
2. Release of Political Prisoners Screening Committee starts examining cases
3. Neutrality and Independence of Police Implemented formally
4. Improving Police Infrastructure On going
5. Recovery of Illegal Arms On-going: good progress
6. Restraining political party violence Partly unsuccessful as yet
7. Increase Beds, Improve Infrastructure No. of beds to be added announced,
and Service in Hospitals hospital administrators to task
Streamlining effective utilization starts
8. Govt. Owned Cultural setups Dolotranta removed, new broad-based
Committes formed
9. Land Bank & Acquisition Policy Work in Progress
10. Removal of bottlenecks to Metro Removed
along Diamond Harbor Road
11. Low cost food supply to poor in Scheme Announced
Jungle Mahal
12. Higher Education Policy Reforms Committees formed
13. Higher Education Facility in Districts 16 new degree colleges announced
14. Indian Institute of Technology Announced
in Darjeeling
15. Work Infrastructure and Work Renovation, Relocation, Upgradation
Culture Improvement in Initiated
State Secretariat Meetings held with Employees
16. Examination of the Crisis in Study in progress, discussion with Central
State Finances Govt. started, Budget being shaped
17. Improved City Traffic Policing Area under Kolkata Police extended
Reorganisation in progress
18. Solution to Hill Region Problem Agreement with Gorkha leaders: tri-partite
agreement to be signed soon
19. Primary Education and 40,000 new primary teachers
PTTI problem recruitment announced
20. Shortage of State Doctors Medical Recruitment Board set up
21. Presidency College University Mentoring Committee for Reforms set up
22. Undergraduate College Reforms Committee set up
23. Revival of Legislative Council ---------------------------------------------
24. Investigation on Past Commissions yet to be set up
Killing Massacres
25. Land Back to Sungur Farmers Bill being introduced in Assembly on 13/14 June
26. Unrecognised Madrassa schools Recognised 10,000 madrassas so they can get
central govt. aid even if the State cannot help.
All citizens, both 42% and 48%, may entertain through monitoring: otherwise, bureaucracy and ministers would not work as hard as needed to speed up Parivartan (change) that Bengal has been crying for long.
Maharaja: West Bengal is in the hands of the citizens: do not let it go back to political parties and their sponsored mafias and goons. Demand delivery from the Government on all the promises continously.
Force them to work hard 24x7 so that they have no time to enjoy the benefits of power, relax and breed corruption, inefficiency and oppression.
Treat them as what they are suppossed to be: volunteer servants of the people who begged for an opportunity to serve the citizens before the elections. As masters appreciate them for good work, encourage the good performers with help and warn those who are unable / unwilling to perform and call for their removal. Give them good salaroies if they need. Trust them only on the basis of the transparency with which they work.
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