Sanjay: Your Excellency, the War has entered the Fifth phase with the Congress announcing its lists of candidates. Both Congress and Trinamool made a few changes in their original lists of 65 constituency contestants and 129 constituency contestants respectively. Few interesting fallout of the Congress-Trinamool seat sharing deal include BJP’s decision to field contestants all over the State though it does not currently have a single seat in the State’s legislature and the decision of some potential allies (who and a section of Congress leadership thought that the Congress-Trinamool seat-sharing deal would not materialize) of the Congress to field their candidates against the Congress itself. Similarly, the SUCI, a small communist party that hates all the communist parties in the ruling Left front led by CPM, has decided to field candidates against the Congress in several constituencies – much to the embarrassment of the Trinamool party which as part of its separate alliance with the SUCI has allocated two constituencies to the latter.
Maharaja: This is funny electoral strategies. However, this should be good news to the CPM and its communist allies.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. But the communists are facing serious problems with their leader, Buddhadev Bhattacharyya.
Maharaja: How is that?
Sanjay: You would recall that I had told you that the CPM did not come out wholeheartedly in admitting its mistakes and seeking pardon of the electorate in their manifesto. But now in all public meetings, Buddhadev is admitting various mistakes committed by his party, the CPM. He said that forcibly taking land way from the farmers instead of persuading them and convincing them was a wrong policy. The arrogance and matabbari style of functioning of CPM ministers, leaders and party workers trying to intervene in the life of the common citizens was wrong. The selection of educational institutions chiefs on the basis of loyalty to CPM party was wrong. With so man wrongs admitted by the leader of the communist army, the electorate is asking the CPM party workers and leaders as to why the CPM should solicit votes for them.
Maharaja: Buddhadev should not have this. He needed a Krishna by his side.
Sanjay: He has Biman besides him. And, on land acquisition the other two top profile CPM cabinet colleagues, Nirupam Sen and Gautam Dev still maintains that for industrialization, forcible land acquisition is a necessity while being all praise for Buddhadev.
Maharaja: This should cost CPM heavily. Buddhadev seems to believe in taking credit if the CPM comes back to power and discredit the party if they lose on account of mistakes committed by party men. This is not proper.
Sanjay: You are always right you’re Excellency. But the party has inflicted lot of constraints on his authority as the Chief Minister. They did not implement his call for ’Do It Now’ to the communist party led State Government employees unions. The party expelled Somnath Chaterjee, the former Lok Shava speaker and withdrew support from the Congress Party at the Centre. The arrogant party leaders and workers defied his recommendation to be polite and humble to the citizens.
However, CPM has all of a sudden found another weakness with its Captain and other stalwart leaders.
Maharaja: What is that weakness?
Sanjay: CPM always had a strong and organized cadre that could push together thousands of supporters to gather at their big rallies to hear the leaders speak. The Trinamool on the other hand worked on the pull of their leader, Mamata, to attract crowd to their public meetings. Now, Mamata is using her pull-attraction in her long street marches to solicit voters for her candidates in different constituencies. In three separate road shows of 120-150 minutes each she covered all the constituencies of Kolkata, walking on foot something like 24 kilometers, with thousands of people following her and residents along the way waving her and exchanging greetings with her. None of the CPM leaders can imagine achieving this feat. This only enhances the popularity of Mamata as a leader of common people: they would trust a leader who can control the party rather than leaders who are controlled by party ideologues or arrogant party workers.
Maharaja: So, sad. What should CPM do now? Will this cost CPM heavly?
Sanjay: Not necessarily. It depends on how effectively CPM responds to Mamata's innovative strategies fast enough, instead of raising silly questions about Mamata's credibilty and capacity to perform to bring a desirable change in West Bengal Government's functioing if she gets to power.
CPM should rather concentrate on its strengths rather than revealing its weaknesses. But the party is continuing to capture the attention of the media by its weaknesses. These were not weaknesses earlier because the media ignored the. For example, earlier it was thought normal if a CPM leader or activists tried to manipulate elections, show arrogance and blame others for CPM's failure to perform. Now it is different. If a CPM leader goes and complains to the Election Commission that despite its instructions, the police (which is directly under Chief AMinister Buddhadev Bhattachryya's charge) is not arresting peole like Mamata Banerjee against whom a non-bailable warrant is yet to be excuted for 12 years, Such actions make CPM look crude and foolish today to the electorate. Again, when a cabinet minister says that the Trinamool-Congress Alliance is influenced by the Government of the United States, the TV interviewer asks him if he seriously believes that people will believe in his American tale. While the West Bengal CPM arranged to make Sitaram Yechury and Brinda Karat Rajya Shabha Members from West Bengal, these two persons are not seen around while the elections battles ae being fought in West Bengal.
Maharaja: What should CPM do now?
Sanjay: See Trinamool has nothing to lose if they do not come to power: so they are innovative in their strategies and actions. CPM's thought and actions are adversely affected by the worry of losing power. They are unable to break fresh grounds in their thinking: their thoughts are along the beaten track of communists traditions, while the Trinamool gets fresh ideas from all sorts of quarters - small businessmen, farmers, workers, MBAs, artists, doctors, film stars, electronic media persons, advertising specialists, singers, composer of songs, novelists, etc.
Maharaja: CPM must now get fresh thinking and fresh blood to rejuvenate itself: merely getting some partymen suspended or expelled and some partymen denied tickets to contest is half-hearted cleansing.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
West Bengal's Poor Choice of Corruption Model
In an article in the edition of 29 March 2011 of Kolkata’s Bengali language daily Anada Bazaar Patrika, Abhirup Sarkar, an Economics Professor at the Indian Statistical Institute has made some observations on corruption in West Bengal as compared to other states in India. Some of his interesting observations are:
1. Democracy is associated with corruption but corruption is much higher in dictatorship.
He may be right and both are different forms of exploitation of the common people by the polity called State or so-called Nation State.
2. Corruption can be at the cost of the Exchequer or at the cost of lower profit of the corporations (unofficial profit tax collected by politicians) needing State approvals and business uninterrupted by mafia.
He has made an interesting classification. But corruption can be both at the cost of the exchequer and profit of the business entrepreneur as well as at the cost of the common citizens.
3. Corruption can be high-ticket few high-profile operators’ crimes that are publicized by the media and corruption can be small-value grass-root level ones involving many individuals.
He is right also in saying that in India the aggregate actual or notional loss due to corruption may be equally shared by high-profile large amount corruption cases and grass root level low vale corruption cases. He is also right in observing further that in the State of West Bengal; the latter category of small value distributed corruption is the most prevalent ones.
4. Political parties in India cannot survive without corruption: they need party workers to work for canvassing votes for the political party leaders / elected representatives and such party workers need to be compensated by creating scope for corruption for them or giving them jobs or business opportunities/ facilities through the use of government power by ruling political parties and also opposition political parties that can create problems for coalition governments.
Abhirup Sarkar has elaborated this point with real life examples.
Those who had the chance to read the posts of this blog, Entertaining Kolkata at http://senskolkatamonitor.blogspot.com/ and the blog on Democratic Exploitation & Oppression http://basudebsen05.blogspot.com/ must be already familiar with Prof. Sarkar’s findings.
But he has another interesting observation to make: corruption does not necessary translate into lower economic growth unless it is at the cost of the Exchequer and mass- distributed type aiming at making the profit tax to 100%. He says that unlike in other states like Maharashtra and Gujrat which are economically far more advanced than West Bengal, there are incidences of high ticket corruption all in the nature of unofficial profit tax at rates that allow businesses to make reasonable amount of profit (bribe/ speed) money collected mainly by corrupt politicians), in West Bengal the ruling political party tries to collect more than 100% profit tax ( the new business must agree to employ x number of party supporters who would not really work, to award civil construction work to party loyalist contractors and to procure construction materials through the party-sponsored suppliers who will provide low quality and charge high prices) resulting in turning all fresh investment proposals commercially unprofitable. This results in low investment, lower economic growth and lower revenue collection in West Bengal. Also, the ruling government in West Bengal pursues the strategy of collecting funds for the party and its workers from existing businesses and giving them in exchange the benefit of not having to pay taxes to the State Government or awarding them the business of making money by supplying materials to the government. Thus the state government collects less revenue bulk of which goes to give salaries to government employees and interest on loans taken from banks and the central government and therefore the state government is unable to make large capital expenditure on infrastructure investment,
Prof Sarkar exposes the tragic consequences of democracy in India and West Bengal. But it seems he has unwittingly made a statistical inference that speed money does not affect economic growth. Probably what he meant was that in West Bengal speed money does not speed up approvals/ clearances as they do in other economically advanced states of Gujarat and Maharashtra and therefore are handicapped. All corruption is only at the cost of economic growth and employment growth. Formal tax/subsidy based redistribution of income may be desirable for the uplift of the poor and the weak and may be growth-contributing if designed and implemented appropriately. But, the black money channel of redistributing incomes through political party mafia is market distorting and growth inhibiting (even though it may appear superficially that employment and income is created for the ruling political party loyalists and the political parties). There is something called loss in efficiency and productivity as well as damage to the spirit of technological and managerial innovation: all these are income and employment growth retarding.
1. Democracy is associated with corruption but corruption is much higher in dictatorship.
He may be right and both are different forms of exploitation of the common people by the polity called State or so-called Nation State.
2. Corruption can be at the cost of the Exchequer or at the cost of lower profit of the corporations (unofficial profit tax collected by politicians) needing State approvals and business uninterrupted by mafia.
He has made an interesting classification. But corruption can be both at the cost of the exchequer and profit of the business entrepreneur as well as at the cost of the common citizens.
3. Corruption can be high-ticket few high-profile operators’ crimes that are publicized by the media and corruption can be small-value grass-root level ones involving many individuals.
He is right also in saying that in India the aggregate actual or notional loss due to corruption may be equally shared by high-profile large amount corruption cases and grass root level low vale corruption cases. He is also right in observing further that in the State of West Bengal; the latter category of small value distributed corruption is the most prevalent ones.
4. Political parties in India cannot survive without corruption: they need party workers to work for canvassing votes for the political party leaders / elected representatives and such party workers need to be compensated by creating scope for corruption for them or giving them jobs or business opportunities/ facilities through the use of government power by ruling political parties and also opposition political parties that can create problems for coalition governments.
Abhirup Sarkar has elaborated this point with real life examples.
Those who had the chance to read the posts of this blog, Entertaining Kolkata at http://senskolkatamonitor.blogspot.com/ and the blog on Democratic Exploitation & Oppression http://basudebsen05.blogspot.com/ must be already familiar with Prof. Sarkar’s findings.
But he has another interesting observation to make: corruption does not necessary translate into lower economic growth unless it is at the cost of the Exchequer and mass- distributed type aiming at making the profit tax to 100%. He says that unlike in other states like Maharashtra and Gujrat which are economically far more advanced than West Bengal, there are incidences of high ticket corruption all in the nature of unofficial profit tax at rates that allow businesses to make reasonable amount of profit (bribe/ speed) money collected mainly by corrupt politicians), in West Bengal the ruling political party tries to collect more than 100% profit tax ( the new business must agree to employ x number of party supporters who would not really work, to award civil construction work to party loyalist contractors and to procure construction materials through the party-sponsored suppliers who will provide low quality and charge high prices) resulting in turning all fresh investment proposals commercially unprofitable. This results in low investment, lower economic growth and lower revenue collection in West Bengal. Also, the ruling government in West Bengal pursues the strategy of collecting funds for the party and its workers from existing businesses and giving them in exchange the benefit of not having to pay taxes to the State Government or awarding them the business of making money by supplying materials to the government. Thus the state government collects less revenue bulk of which goes to give salaries to government employees and interest on loans taken from banks and the central government and therefore the state government is unable to make large capital expenditure on infrastructure investment,
Prof Sarkar exposes the tragic consequences of democracy in India and West Bengal. But it seems he has unwittingly made a statistical inference that speed money does not affect economic growth. Probably what he meant was that in West Bengal speed money does not speed up approvals/ clearances as they do in other economically advanced states of Gujarat and Maharashtra and therefore are handicapped. All corruption is only at the cost of economic growth and employment growth. Formal tax/subsidy based redistribution of income may be desirable for the uplift of the poor and the weak and may be growth-contributing if designed and implemented appropriately. But, the black money channel of redistributing incomes through political party mafia is market distorting and growth inhibiting (even though it may appear superficially that employment and income is created for the ruling political party loyalists and the political parties). There is something called loss in efficiency and productivity as well as damage to the spirit of technological and managerial innovation: all these are income and employment growth retarding.
Monday, March 21, 2011
Bengal Kurkshetra Phase Four-C: Concluding Drama
Sanjay: The Fourth Phase of the Election Kurukshetra concluded today with anticipated High Drama.
Maharaja: What's the drama?
Sanjay: In just less than three hours, the West Bengal Congress Leadership had to accept the seat sharing deal with Trinamool Congress with reluctance but forced smile on the face, following Congress President, Sonia Gandhi's meeting with relevant central leaders of the Congress and a telephone conversation between Pranab Mukherjee and Mamata Banerjee: Mamta just offered one more constituency to Congress to rise it to 65, keeping the remaining 229 seats under her control. She did not agree to local Congress leadership's demand for a reshuffling of the constituencies within the allocated share of 65 seats for Congress to contest. Previous day, the local Congress Chief seemed to have carried three lists with him for the consideration of the Congress High Command: one of 64 contestants with some changes in the constituencies, second of 90 contestants and a third with 294 contestants: Shakil Ahmed, Congress Central leader looking after West Bengal affairs had said that the Congress is keeping all options open including going it alone. Sonia Gandhi of course knew the capabilities of the West Bengal Congress with its various regional factions and she did not want to upset her clearly thought out plan to humiliate the CPM in its bastion in West Bengal (and Kerala) riding and strengthening the Mamata wave in West Bengal. Congress central leadership had much earlier signalled to its West Bengal Congress leaders that the Elections in West Bengal would be fought under the leadership Mamata Banerjee; but the latter failed to pick up the signal. They cried for an honorable deal with Trinamool: they ultimated got the honor they deserved from their own President on 21 March afternoon. They had to accept Mamata's offered deal.
Maharaja: So, now this Trinamool - Congress deal will disappoint the communist alliance and make it difficult for them.
Sanjay: Do not get upset, Maharaja. Surely the advantage that the communists enjoyed till 20th is now gone. But that means that the War is going to be fiercer and therefore more entertaining to you. Do not worry about the final result - that will kill the entertainment. So far as you are concerned, if the communists win, you have nothing to lose as you lived with them for 34 years. If Trinamool- Congress combine wins, you have nothing to lose because you will soon adjust to the situation. Rather, if Trinamool does not get absolute majority by itself, you can expect more entertainment.
Maharaja: I understand that Sanjay. I would remain unaffected by the results because I am a blind person. But I have been brought up from childhood with the thought that communists are the only leftists, socialist, honest, humane and democratic in the World.
Sanjay: Being blind, you have not been able to observe what has been happening around the World as you gear up from childhood. There are many countries in the World which are ruled by communists. None of them have to be leftists as they do not allow anyone to be in the right or left as they are themselves in the centre as well as in the left and right. They are socialists in slogan: they only expect the citizens to be honestly obedient to them. They are humane only to those citizens who would never protest and willing to suffer if so required by the communist rulers. They are also democratic: they do not believe any more on left or right democracy but democratic centralism. The question of practising open and transparent democracy to tolerate opposing views just do not arise.
Maharaja: Maybe you are right. But slavery to childhood dreams is not easy to get over. I would rather sing:
'Aazee Bagladesher Paschimaytay Ekee Oshonee,
Raajnititay Hotath El-O Netree Mamta Didimoni,
Ogo Marx Tomar Budhha Biman Ki jay Kore!
Jongolaytay kon Maoer Hana, Korche sobay Sabooj Boron
Ghasfoolayeri Santrashay hoy Laal Baameder Durgo Poton,
Ogo Marx Tomar Buddha Biman Ki baa koray!'
I am sad that the communists will have to face a tough election in West Bengal this year.
Sanjay: Be cheerful Maharaja. Buddha Biman has made lot of efforts to stage a come back. It may not be so easy for Mamata even with the great seat -sharing deal she has made with the Congress to fight the communists. This is deal may turn out to be superficial one. Many shadow candidates would be secretly sponsored by regional chiefs of Congress to cut into the votes of Trinamool Congress, especially when in about a score of constituencies the local Trinamool activists are protesting agaist Mamata's choice of contestant chieftains. Besides the communists have much larger cadre to visit every household to canvas for votes but Trinamool has few. And, with the various kinds of restrictions on public meetings using mikes and sound boxes, Mamata would be unable to hold mammoth election gathering meetings to generate the Mamata wave in all constituencies.
Maharaja: So, you think. Trinamool will have lots of difficulties with the CPM fully geared up.
Sanjay: Yes, your excellency. The communists are still a strong force. You judge by yourself. There are numerous Bengali's who share your childhood dreams. But for the first time, the communists will have to fight like valiant heroes. The earlier manipulations and tricks will not work now given the strong and agile Election Commission. The voters in the fringe of the committed, loyal voters would now need to be convinced and cajoled This is what the communist are really focusing on. But the communists have lost the advantage they had in announcing the Manifesto Bomb.
Maharaja: How? The communist manifesto covers only desirable things. They have promised to lift West Bengal to the forefront in terms purchasing power, health care, education and peace. They are going to give priority to everything - agriculture and land reforms, industry to small businesses, Muslims to OBCs. The manifesto is excellent.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir : the communists' manifesto contains desirable things and priorities: but does not contain everything that is desirable. Mamata released the Trinamool Manifesto at the same time she announced the seat-sharing deal conclusion. Trinamool Mannifesto contains all that the communist manifesto promises and also contains desirable promises and priorities that the communists' manifesto does not. Trinamool promised virtually everything that the communists did and laid out a clear programme of delivery for the first 100/ 200 days and first 1000 days. So it is more concrete. More imporatant, Mamata has promised citizen friendly administration and police services without any political party interference. I had told you earlier that the communists shied away from making this promise. There are other important ideas of development in her manifesto. Finally, her critique of the Communist government's performance is more focused, quantitative and authentic in terms of sources quoted, unlike the run of the mill hackneyed criticism of Congress and Trinamool we find in the communists' manifesto. Even the Website version of the Trinamool Manifesto is qualitatively much more attractive with user friendly access features compared to the drag scanned copy of the printed version available in the website of the Ganasakti. The manifesto id not the deciding factor in elections: but this time the effectiveness of the manifesto bomb attack of the Trinamool will be far superior to that of the communist manifesto bomb.
Maharaja: That is unfortunate. But how can that be. The communists are supposed to be more savvy in these matters.
Sanjay: I agree with you but only for the past. Today. Trinamool has marched ahead with a superior quality manifesto appropriate to their call for change while the communists stuck to status quo quality in the manifesto. But that does not mean that the Trinammol election machinery would be able to make the best use of their more powerful manifesto bomb. So, Maharaja, you need not be alarmed at this stage. Let us await how the rivals play in the next Fifth phase, starting March 22.
Maharaja: What's the drama?
Sanjay: In just less than three hours, the West Bengal Congress Leadership had to accept the seat sharing deal with Trinamool Congress with reluctance but forced smile on the face, following Congress President, Sonia Gandhi's meeting with relevant central leaders of the Congress and a telephone conversation between Pranab Mukherjee and Mamata Banerjee: Mamta just offered one more constituency to Congress to rise it to 65, keeping the remaining 229 seats under her control. She did not agree to local Congress leadership's demand for a reshuffling of the constituencies within the allocated share of 65 seats for Congress to contest. Previous day, the local Congress Chief seemed to have carried three lists with him for the consideration of the Congress High Command: one of 64 contestants with some changes in the constituencies, second of 90 contestants and a third with 294 contestants: Shakil Ahmed, Congress Central leader looking after West Bengal affairs had said that the Congress is keeping all options open including going it alone. Sonia Gandhi of course knew the capabilities of the West Bengal Congress with its various regional factions and she did not want to upset her clearly thought out plan to humiliate the CPM in its bastion in West Bengal (and Kerala) riding and strengthening the Mamata wave in West Bengal. Congress central leadership had much earlier signalled to its West Bengal Congress leaders that the Elections in West Bengal would be fought under the leadership Mamata Banerjee; but the latter failed to pick up the signal. They cried for an honorable deal with Trinamool: they ultimated got the honor they deserved from their own President on 21 March afternoon. They had to accept Mamata's offered deal.
Maharaja: So, now this Trinamool - Congress deal will disappoint the communist alliance and make it difficult for them.
Sanjay: Do not get upset, Maharaja. Surely the advantage that the communists enjoyed till 20th is now gone. But that means that the War is going to be fiercer and therefore more entertaining to you. Do not worry about the final result - that will kill the entertainment. So far as you are concerned, if the communists win, you have nothing to lose as you lived with them for 34 years. If Trinamool- Congress combine wins, you have nothing to lose because you will soon adjust to the situation. Rather, if Trinamool does not get absolute majority by itself, you can expect more entertainment.
Maharaja: I understand that Sanjay. I would remain unaffected by the results because I am a blind person. But I have been brought up from childhood with the thought that communists are the only leftists, socialist, honest, humane and democratic in the World.
Sanjay: Being blind, you have not been able to observe what has been happening around the World as you gear up from childhood. There are many countries in the World which are ruled by communists. None of them have to be leftists as they do not allow anyone to be in the right or left as they are themselves in the centre as well as in the left and right. They are socialists in slogan: they only expect the citizens to be honestly obedient to them. They are humane only to those citizens who would never protest and willing to suffer if so required by the communist rulers. They are also democratic: they do not believe any more on left or right democracy but democratic centralism. The question of practising open and transparent democracy to tolerate opposing views just do not arise.
Maharaja: Maybe you are right. But slavery to childhood dreams is not easy to get over. I would rather sing:
'Aazee Bagladesher Paschimaytay Ekee Oshonee,
Raajnititay Hotath El-O Netree Mamta Didimoni,
Ogo Marx Tomar Budhha Biman Ki jay Kore!
Jongolaytay kon Maoer Hana, Korche sobay Sabooj Boron
Ghasfoolayeri Santrashay hoy Laal Baameder Durgo Poton,
Ogo Marx Tomar Buddha Biman Ki baa koray!'
I am sad that the communists will have to face a tough election in West Bengal this year.
Sanjay: Be cheerful Maharaja. Buddha Biman has made lot of efforts to stage a come back. It may not be so easy for Mamata even with the great seat -sharing deal she has made with the Congress to fight the communists. This is deal may turn out to be superficial one. Many shadow candidates would be secretly sponsored by regional chiefs of Congress to cut into the votes of Trinamool Congress, especially when in about a score of constituencies the local Trinamool activists are protesting agaist Mamata's choice of contestant chieftains. Besides the communists have much larger cadre to visit every household to canvas for votes but Trinamool has few. And, with the various kinds of restrictions on public meetings using mikes and sound boxes, Mamata would be unable to hold mammoth election gathering meetings to generate the Mamata wave in all constituencies.
Maharaja: So, you think. Trinamool will have lots of difficulties with the CPM fully geared up.
Sanjay: Yes, your excellency. The communists are still a strong force. You judge by yourself. There are numerous Bengali's who share your childhood dreams. But for the first time, the communists will have to fight like valiant heroes. The earlier manipulations and tricks will not work now given the strong and agile Election Commission. The voters in the fringe of the committed, loyal voters would now need to be convinced and cajoled This is what the communist are really focusing on. But the communists have lost the advantage they had in announcing the Manifesto Bomb.
Maharaja: How? The communist manifesto covers only desirable things. They have promised to lift West Bengal to the forefront in terms purchasing power, health care, education and peace. They are going to give priority to everything - agriculture and land reforms, industry to small businesses, Muslims to OBCs. The manifesto is excellent.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir : the communists' manifesto contains desirable things and priorities: but does not contain everything that is desirable. Mamata released the Trinamool Manifesto at the same time she announced the seat-sharing deal conclusion. Trinamool Mannifesto contains all that the communist manifesto promises and also contains desirable promises and priorities that the communists' manifesto does not. Trinamool promised virtually everything that the communists did and laid out a clear programme of delivery for the first 100/ 200 days and first 1000 days. So it is more concrete. More imporatant, Mamata has promised citizen friendly administration and police services without any political party interference. I had told you earlier that the communists shied away from making this promise. There are other important ideas of development in her manifesto. Finally, her critique of the Communist government's performance is more focused, quantitative and authentic in terms of sources quoted, unlike the run of the mill hackneyed criticism of Congress and Trinamool we find in the communists' manifesto. Even the Website version of the Trinamool Manifesto is qualitatively much more attractive with user friendly access features compared to the drag scanned copy of the printed version available in the website of the Ganasakti. The manifesto id not the deciding factor in elections: but this time the effectiveness of the manifesto bomb attack of the Trinamool will be far superior to that of the communist manifesto bomb.
Maharaja: That is unfortunate. But how can that be. The communists are supposed to be more savvy in these matters.
Sanjay: I agree with you but only for the past. Today. Trinamool has marched ahead with a superior quality manifesto appropriate to their call for change while the communists stuck to status quo quality in the manifesto. But that does not mean that the Trinammol election machinery would be able to make the best use of their more powerful manifesto bomb. So, Maharaja, you need not be alarmed at this stage. Let us await how the rivals play in the next Fifth phase, starting March 22.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Bengal Kurukshetra: Phase Four-B In the Midst of Colors
Maharaja: What happened to Non-communist line up Sanjay.
Sanjay: This time, there may again be partial or full three-way battles in Bengal Kurukshetra. The Communist Alliance has already announced its lineup of contesting chieftains - a more youthful set of warlords than the team that clinched a two-thirds majority in 2006. Some valiant old guards who could not get constituencies to contest because of tainted images are deployed to deal with logistics. They have released their Manifesto Bomb promising to bring in peace, purchasing power of citizens, education and heatlhcare of the top category comparable to the best in the country.
Maharaja: You told me about this earlier. But what the Congress Couple Buddhadev wants to beat?
Sanjay: Maharaja, Buddhadev is fascinated by his childhood experience. Those days, there was a single Congress Party in India and its election symbol was a 'pair of bulls' coupled to plough the land or move heavy cart loads. That is gone. In West Bengal, there are two Congress Parties Now. The current All India Congress ruled by the descendants of the first Indian Prime Minister Nehru and her daughter, Indira Gandhi who also became a Prime Minister, was carved out the original Congress Party that vanished from the political scene.
In West Bengal, there were a few splinter group Congress Parties for brief periods and they also vanished. Mamata Banerjee was the only women youth leader of the Indira's Congress Party. She even became a sports (?) minister in the Congress Ministry at the Centre. But she felt manipulated by different factions of the Congress leadership in West Bengal and finally formed her party with grass root Congress cadres. She christened her party as Trinamool (grass root) Congress, which now boasts of many erstwhile Congress leaders senior to Mamata in the State working as her lieutenants. Her Trinamool Congress has been the major opposition force in West Bengal since then.
Maharaja: But how come these two Congress Parties are in an alliance now.
Sanjay: Your Excellency. I seek your patience for a little historical background to explain this so-called alliance.The All India Congress repeated failed to give any worthwhile fight to the communists and continued to treat Mamata's party as minor outfit. The reluctant attempt to form a formal coalition with Trinamool led to a disaster for both the parties in 2001. In 2006, they did not form any coalition as the Congress Party in the West Bengal became a party that was comfortable with whatever benefit they could get by not being aggressive against the CPM. The relations between the Congress and the Communists became extremely cordial when after the 2004 National Elections there was a hung Parliament and the CPM extended outside support to a Congress Government. That installed the Congress' UPA (united progressive alliance) -1 Government at the Centre. Trinamool with negligible representation in the Central Legislature (Lok Shava) did not matter. But the Congress had to pay a heavy price for the CPM support. First, CPM exerted an overbearing influence in policy making. Second, by being outside the government, it took no responsibility for the poor performance of the government (including any scam that could later embarrass the Government. Third, special assistance had to be extended to the CPM government in West Bengal. Fourth, Congress could not object to the way the CPM government in West Bengal oppressed the opposition voice in the State. Finally, the CPM withdrew the support to UPA-1 government as the Government went ahead with the nuclear electricity generation support deal with the US. The Congress managed to survive the Trust Vote in the central Legislature, though accused by the BJP and the Communists of purchasing votes in exchange of cash.
Maharaja: So, CPM did play a very clever strategy getting all that they wanted by taking advantage of a lower than adequate Congress strength in the Lok Shava and then pull the rugs under the feet of the Congress.
Sanjay: Yes, that is called as the Karat-ee Strategy. But it was clever by half. It is this strategy that paved the way for the rise of Mamata and Trinamool Congress, especially at a time when CPM's blatant fascism reached its hieght with events in Nadigram, and Singur and CPM fighting the Maoists in Largarh deploying its own armed cadres rather than leaving it solely to the police.
It is only then that Central leadership of the Congress Party sought ways to use the Trinamool Congress in cutting CPM at its base. It is at the instance and directive of the Congress central leadership, the Congress leadership most reluctantly went into a poll-alliance with the Trinamool in the Lok Shava elections in 2009. And, they came out triumphantly, reducing CPM''s Lok Shava strength form West Bengal from 40 to 16, with Trinamool bagging 20 and Congress 8. The Congress now needed Trinamool as partner in its UPA-2 alliance.
Maharaja: Then, this alliance should flower now.
Sanjay: Unfortunately, This is not a straignt forward alliance. The local Congress leadership would not let Trinamool to grow into dominance and be satisfied playing a second fiddle to Mamata, even if they had no problem in acting in the same role in relation to the CPM, earning them the label of 'CPM's B team'. So, there was no alliance between Congress and Trinamool in the Pachayat Elections and the Municipal Elections with both the Congress and Trnamool doing far better and crushing CPM to defeat in many areas. The Trinamool's slogan for Change in West Bengal created a great wave, embarrassing the CPM. But now the Congress in West Bengal wants to ensure that they get as much allocation of constituencies in the West Bengal Assembly elections. They thought of 126 constituencies as fair. But asked for 90 as a fair demand. Mamata felt 42 is what was fair for the Congress but initially offered 58. After a series of negotiations she offered 62 and then raised it to 64. She thought Congress would soon announce the alliance formally.
Maharaja: I got the impression that the negotiations would be over soon when you last narranted the progrees of the War to me.
Sanjay: Yes, But I did say that this may not be easy. Congress is a veteran in negotiations and specialise in time wasting techniques that could unnerve the other party on the negotiation table. After waiting for four days frm what was termed as the deciding final negotiation on Sunday 13th March, Mamata went ahead and announced her chieftains for 228 constituencies, leaving 64 for Congress and 2 for her other partner SUCI on Friday 18th evening. Her candidates began their campaign with colors along with the CPM contestants. Saturday 19th and Sunday 20th are the days of Colour Spring Festivals in West Bengal and India (Doljatra and Holi). With perfumed powder of various colors from Green to red and blue to pink, the candidates roamed along the streets and visited the residents in the constituencies to exchange greetings, entertain themselves in spring season dance and songs and gossips and of course seek support from the electorate. A gaiety beginning to election campaign in West Bengal for all except the Congress. One CPM leader however really stole the show. While Buddadev addressed various election meetings in his Constituency, Guatam Dev who changed his constituency this time gave sponsored interview for hours together to 24-Ghanta News channel: the interview was broadcast on both 19th and 20th of March. More colors got into the election campaign paintings on the walls of the residents. West Bengal is all colors now.
Maharaja: What strategy did Trinamool adopt in its list of 228 chieftain contestants. The usual strategy that all political parties adopt are larger number of women chieftains and larger number of Muslim and Scheduled Tribes/ Caste Chieftains. This has been adopted. But probably of necessity, Trinamool is required to field contestants who has so far been mere party sympathisers rather than party activists/ cadres. The party may have many grass root supporters but not as many leaders required to attract voters and look talented in terms of intellect, competence, and administrative capability. So, many leaders have to be inducted also from outside the party fold: persons from medical profession and film/ TV serial/ stage actoing have been fielded. Besides, a former Chief Secretary of the West Bengal Government and a Secretary General of an all India association of industry and commerce have been roped in to contest against Buddhadev, the current CPM chief minister and Ashim Dasgupta, the current CPM finance minister, respectively. This list of Trinamool contestants, Mamata feels has representations from various sections of the society who want change and build a new Bengal that cultivates democracy, allows administration to work efficiently without political party interference and dictates and enthuse small, medium and large business enterprises in agriculture, service and industry sectors.
Maharaja: But what will the Congress do now? It is a clear advance to our communists then!
Sanjay: Yes, Maharaja. The Communists have advantage at this stage. I will come back to you soon as the Trinamool is set to release its Manifesto Bomb on Monday the 21st and the Congress Chief Sonia Gandhi decides on the fate of the alliance with Trinamool shortly.given that the first phase election nomination of candidates is scheduled on 24th March. However, since the elections will be in six phases spread over a month, the Congress may also keep it options open till some more time. If Trinamool fails to get to power in West Bengal, it may become a more demanding alliance in the UPA-2 government for Congress at the centre to deal with.
Maharaja: It looks like the CPM has come back.
Sanjay : As the elections draw further close, all parties and candidates will be emotionally in a state of come back to put up a great fight. That is the enjoyment of War, Maharaja. That is the entertainment - not what the actual results turn out to be. It is not the time to get emotional about your favourites now, unless you are a voter or a contestant. Just witness how the parties, the contestants and the various sections of the electorate play out and enjoy as the story of MahaBangala unfolds under the supervision of the Kurukshetra War regulator, the Election Commission .
Sanjay: This time, there may again be partial or full three-way battles in Bengal Kurukshetra. The Communist Alliance has already announced its lineup of contesting chieftains - a more youthful set of warlords than the team that clinched a two-thirds majority in 2006. Some valiant old guards who could not get constituencies to contest because of tainted images are deployed to deal with logistics. They have released their Manifesto Bomb promising to bring in peace, purchasing power of citizens, education and heatlhcare of the top category comparable to the best in the country.
Maharaja: You told me about this earlier. But what the Congress Couple Buddhadev wants to beat?
Sanjay: Maharaja, Buddhadev is fascinated by his childhood experience. Those days, there was a single Congress Party in India and its election symbol was a 'pair of bulls' coupled to plough the land or move heavy cart loads. That is gone. In West Bengal, there are two Congress Parties Now. The current All India Congress ruled by the descendants of the first Indian Prime Minister Nehru and her daughter, Indira Gandhi who also became a Prime Minister, was carved out the original Congress Party that vanished from the political scene.
In West Bengal, there were a few splinter group Congress Parties for brief periods and they also vanished. Mamata Banerjee was the only women youth leader of the Indira's Congress Party. She even became a sports (?) minister in the Congress Ministry at the Centre. But she felt manipulated by different factions of the Congress leadership in West Bengal and finally formed her party with grass root Congress cadres. She christened her party as Trinamool (grass root) Congress, which now boasts of many erstwhile Congress leaders senior to Mamata in the State working as her lieutenants. Her Trinamool Congress has been the major opposition force in West Bengal since then.
Maharaja: But how come these two Congress Parties are in an alliance now.
Sanjay: Your Excellency. I seek your patience for a little historical background to explain this so-called alliance.The All India Congress repeated failed to give any worthwhile fight to the communists and continued to treat Mamata's party as minor outfit. The reluctant attempt to form a formal coalition with Trinamool led to a disaster for both the parties in 2001. In 2006, they did not form any coalition as the Congress Party in the West Bengal became a party that was comfortable with whatever benefit they could get by not being aggressive against the CPM. The relations between the Congress and the Communists became extremely cordial when after the 2004 National Elections there was a hung Parliament and the CPM extended outside support to a Congress Government. That installed the Congress' UPA (united progressive alliance) -1 Government at the Centre. Trinamool with negligible representation in the Central Legislature (Lok Shava) did not matter. But the Congress had to pay a heavy price for the CPM support. First, CPM exerted an overbearing influence in policy making. Second, by being outside the government, it took no responsibility for the poor performance of the government (including any scam that could later embarrass the Government. Third, special assistance had to be extended to the CPM government in West Bengal. Fourth, Congress could not object to the way the CPM government in West Bengal oppressed the opposition voice in the State. Finally, the CPM withdrew the support to UPA-1 government as the Government went ahead with the nuclear electricity generation support deal with the US. The Congress managed to survive the Trust Vote in the central Legislature, though accused by the BJP and the Communists of purchasing votes in exchange of cash.
Maharaja: So, CPM did play a very clever strategy getting all that they wanted by taking advantage of a lower than adequate Congress strength in the Lok Shava and then pull the rugs under the feet of the Congress.
Sanjay: Yes, that is called as the Karat-ee Strategy. But it was clever by half. It is this strategy that paved the way for the rise of Mamata and Trinamool Congress, especially at a time when CPM's blatant fascism reached its hieght with events in Nadigram, and Singur and CPM fighting the Maoists in Largarh deploying its own armed cadres rather than leaving it solely to the police.
It is only then that Central leadership of the Congress Party sought ways to use the Trinamool Congress in cutting CPM at its base. It is at the instance and directive of the Congress central leadership, the Congress leadership most reluctantly went into a poll-alliance with the Trinamool in the Lok Shava elections in 2009. And, they came out triumphantly, reducing CPM''s Lok Shava strength form West Bengal from 40 to 16, with Trinamool bagging 20 and Congress 8. The Congress now needed Trinamool as partner in its UPA-2 alliance.
Maharaja: Then, this alliance should flower now.
Sanjay: Unfortunately, This is not a straignt forward alliance. The local Congress leadership would not let Trinamool to grow into dominance and be satisfied playing a second fiddle to Mamata, even if they had no problem in acting in the same role in relation to the CPM, earning them the label of 'CPM's B team'. So, there was no alliance between Congress and Trinamool in the Pachayat Elections and the Municipal Elections with both the Congress and Trnamool doing far better and crushing CPM to defeat in many areas. The Trinamool's slogan for Change in West Bengal created a great wave, embarrassing the CPM. But now the Congress in West Bengal wants to ensure that they get as much allocation of constituencies in the West Bengal Assembly elections. They thought of 126 constituencies as fair. But asked for 90 as a fair demand. Mamata felt 42 is what was fair for the Congress but initially offered 58. After a series of negotiations she offered 62 and then raised it to 64. She thought Congress would soon announce the alliance formally.
Maharaja: I got the impression that the negotiations would be over soon when you last narranted the progrees of the War to me.
Sanjay: Yes, But I did say that this may not be easy. Congress is a veteran in negotiations and specialise in time wasting techniques that could unnerve the other party on the negotiation table. After waiting for four days frm what was termed as the deciding final negotiation on Sunday 13th March, Mamata went ahead and announced her chieftains for 228 constituencies, leaving 64 for Congress and 2 for her other partner SUCI on Friday 18th evening. Her candidates began their campaign with colors along with the CPM contestants. Saturday 19th and Sunday 20th are the days of Colour Spring Festivals in West Bengal and India (Doljatra and Holi). With perfumed powder of various colors from Green to red and blue to pink, the candidates roamed along the streets and visited the residents in the constituencies to exchange greetings, entertain themselves in spring season dance and songs and gossips and of course seek support from the electorate. A gaiety beginning to election campaign in West Bengal for all except the Congress. One CPM leader however really stole the show. While Buddadev addressed various election meetings in his Constituency, Guatam Dev who changed his constituency this time gave sponsored interview for hours together to 24-Ghanta News channel: the interview was broadcast on both 19th and 20th of March. More colors got into the election campaign paintings on the walls of the residents. West Bengal is all colors now.
Maharaja: What strategy did Trinamool adopt in its list of 228 chieftain contestants. The usual strategy that all political parties adopt are larger number of women chieftains and larger number of Muslim and Scheduled Tribes/ Caste Chieftains. This has been adopted. But probably of necessity, Trinamool is required to field contestants who has so far been mere party sympathisers rather than party activists/ cadres. The party may have many grass root supporters but not as many leaders required to attract voters and look talented in terms of intellect, competence, and administrative capability. So, many leaders have to be inducted also from outside the party fold: persons from medical profession and film/ TV serial/ stage actoing have been fielded. Besides, a former Chief Secretary of the West Bengal Government and a Secretary General of an all India association of industry and commerce have been roped in to contest against Buddhadev, the current CPM chief minister and Ashim Dasgupta, the current CPM finance minister, respectively. This list of Trinamool contestants, Mamata feels has representations from various sections of the society who want change and build a new Bengal that cultivates democracy, allows administration to work efficiently without political party interference and dictates and enthuse small, medium and large business enterprises in agriculture, service and industry sectors.
Maharaja: But what will the Congress do now? It is a clear advance to our communists then!
Sanjay: Yes, Maharaja. The Communists have advantage at this stage. I will come back to you soon as the Trinamool is set to release its Manifesto Bomb on Monday the 21st and the Congress Chief Sonia Gandhi decides on the fate of the alliance with Trinamool shortly.given that the first phase election nomination of candidates is scheduled on 24th March. However, since the elections will be in six phases spread over a month, the Congress may also keep it options open till some more time. If Trinamool fails to get to power in West Bengal, it may become a more demanding alliance in the UPA-2 government for Congress at the centre to deal with.
Maharaja: It looks like the CPM has come back.
Sanjay : As the elections draw further close, all parties and candidates will be emotionally in a state of come back to put up a great fight. That is the enjoyment of War, Maharaja. That is the entertainment - not what the actual results turn out to be. It is not the time to get emotional about your favourites now, unless you are a voter or a contestant. Just witness how the parties, the contestants and the various sections of the electorate play out and enjoy as the story of MahaBangala unfolds under the supervision of the Kurukshetra War regulator, the Election Commission .
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Bengal Kurukshetra: Phase Four-A
-ASanjay: Maharaja, Your Excellency’s ears may be capturing drum beats of the Great War. Maharaja: Yes, it is very faint still. There is no conch blowing as yet! Why is it such a low key? The warriors with their leaders are not yet ready?
Sanjay: You’re right, Maharaja. Only the Marx-aligned Communist Camp has lined up all the 294 battle chieftains under the overall command of the Communist Comrade Undisputed Leader Buddadev Bhattacharya, the current Chief Minister of West Bengal . He is going to be assisted by the Marx-aligned Front leadership under the Chairmanship of Comrade Biman Bose. The list of contestant chieftains of the communists was announced on Sunday lucky 13th March evening. Immediately, small processions of communists roamed through the roads of various battle constituencies with voce vote cries. The drams started beating.
Maharaja: Any particular strategy can you discern from the formation of the communists.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. First, the average age of the chieftains have declined with the withdrawal of a large number of old guards including winning heroes of the Elections five years ago and induction of younger chieftains. Second, the women squad has been strengthened it seems, though many are yet to establish their credentials in their constituencies: Matri-Sakti (mother- power) in capturing women voters has been invoked probably to contend the Matri-Sakti-Learder Image of the rival party. Third, a few strong warriors with great vote capturing powers have been dropped because of their infamous activities in the battle of Singur, Nandigram, Sassan and/ or because of their failure to keep their rating as non-performing asset hidden from public eye or their inability to hide their corruption explosives under the carpet. Finally, some old and strong warriors have been shifted to apparently safer battle constituencies.
Maharaja: How is the line up consistent with the War Manifesto?
Sanjay: The Manifesto took quite a while this time to cook up and serve it as an ace to that is beyond the capability of comfortable, spinning return by the rival or the electorate.There are too many issues to be dealt with but all are not very substantive to the electorate. There is no wave of past glory to sail through speeding past victory line at this point. Rather, the external environment is against Communist slogans and long dictatorship, though capitalism is still nursing serious wound following the Great Recession and Financial Crisis of 2008. Bulk of Arab countries and North Africa are witnessing revolutions against erstwhile popular, national leaders who ruled for decades as fascist dictators dedicated to the poor, common man continuing to be without economic and political freedom of expressing different views. On top of this, a section of the Bengali intellectuals of performing arts are trying to stage plays like “Animal Farm” of Orwell (1945-6 vintage) that portray the fascist atrocities of dictators in the name of the proletariat.
Maharaja: What is the political drama?
Sanjay: This is the usual anti-establishment campaigns of the elite intellectuals any where. Time to time, the current Communist government of West Bengal – a part of the Indian Capitalistic State, has been trying to stop these intellectuals to stage such anti-establishment plays to reveal the ruling government’s undemocratic and fascist features. Just before the Kurukshetra Election War, this is proving to be all the more adverse to the communists. So, one of their influential leaders influenced the police to stop the staging of play by making a complaint of likely violation of the Election Commission Code of Conduct and the District Administration citing the reason for their action as the non-payment of entertainment tax by the organizers of the stage play. This has created a much publicized controversy over the communist hypocrisy when the communist Chief Minster said that the staging of the play should have been stopped by Administration while the Senior Officials serving the Chief Minister saying that the stage show was stopped because of technical deficiency of the promoters and the police showing evidence of complaint received from Chief Minister’s own party colleague saying that the staging of the ply would be breach of election code of conduct.
Maharaja: This is silly. Unnecessarily undermining the image of the communists by the party men is silly at this stage. The controversy is more damaging to the Communist War preparedness than the damage that might have been caused by the stage play itself.
Sanjay: You are right Maharaja. But as you know tempers, nervousness and tensions run high as the Elections draw near and the Great Battle is just about to start. Do not worry, the rival parties can also be expected to do such silly self-damaging acts soon. The Communists may get their chance to create controversy to inflict image degradation of the rivals.
There are more silly tactics that damaged the image of the communists. One erstwhile high flying State leader who lost Lokshabha elections in 2008, quietly brought a police-reported absconding party leader at district level to the State headquarters to settle the issue of getting a constituency to act as contestant chieftain and allowing the local police to arrest him on charges of murder, possession of unauthorised lethal weapons and other crimes. The headquarters it seems asked the police to arrest him if he so desired but did not given a ticket to the election contest. Police arrested him and put him in jail custody instead of keeping him in police custody for investigation, favoring him with a better and safer place to enjoy life and at the same time abide by the Election Commission's directive of arresting all alleged criminals against whom warrants are pending for arrest. This person was reportedly absconding for the last few years from the police but moving about in all places around the police station but not going to the police station. This hardly helps create conditions for release of a suitable Manifesto.
Maharaja: That is very unfortunate, Sanjay. But how strong is the Manifesto bombing?
Sanjay: I have not got the reports on the detailed specification of the Manifesto as yet. But it seems that it is unlikely to detonate. It uses the same old oft-repeated issues about the two Congreses - the Indian and the Trinamool variety, as being useless, utterly incompetent and pro rich as contrasted to the highly poor-dedicated, efficient communist front that continues to promise employment generation with small scale industry proliferation, rapid industrialisation (without being industrialist friendly), inflation control, land acquisition with better compensation and creating infrastructure that places West Bengal among the top Indian states in terms of education, health care, etc.
Maharaja: That should work well.
Sanjay: It seems doubtful that this Manifesto Bomb will work. It may be easily defused before it detonates. The present Manifesto seems to be saying to the electorate to chose the communists because they are less dangerous to the electorate than their rivals. There could have been more effective manifesto bombs. One, the Karat-style Bomb with ingredients of dreaming up the communist revolution to overthrow all capitalism from West Bengal in just five years after thirty three years have gone waste. Two, a Bomb with ingredients of admitting all failures and mistakes from continuing to tax petroleum fuel, to sick experiments with education, to continue all violence, to allow profiteering house-promotion activity as the main business of CPM activists and loyalists, to remove SomnathnChatterjee from the Party at the instance of a Keralite of little contribution to West Bengal or democracy, to allow police to be used by party leaders and activists in whatever way they liked, to allow a Hindu businessmen to use senior police officials to drive a poor professional to death because his daughter married this Muslim youth, to interfere in the election of the cricket association, to describe the government of West Bengal as the Left Front's government rather than the government of all the people of West Bengal, to allow low and sub-standard brains (including the one dishonest enough to declare himself as PhD while not in possession of such a degree) to rule education), to allow Maoists to proliferate and not confront them squarely with legal and security weapons, to enforce government land acquisition on hundreds of unwilling poor farmers and bargadars and firing to kill some of them when they were in protest agitation, to allow unions and musclemen to act as chieftains of government hospitals, and so on.
Maharaja: How can you expect a ruling front to admit their mistakes and failures and yet win elections?
Sanjay: If you don't, your bomb manifesto does not seem credible to the electorate. The issue is not of winning elections for a genuinely pro-poor party. It is one of re-establishing their credibility. Even if they win this Elections, they would still be without credibility with the current manifesto. It would just be another five-year term for a party without direction and credibility. On the other hand, by admitting to all their failures and faults comprehensively and unhesitatingly and promising not to repeat any such mistake in future, they would have regained credibility. Without credibility, you cannot really become a better party than the rivals, however, badly you paint them in the manifesto.
The Communists have wasted the last chance of coming out again as a clean party. You cannot predict what the electorate will finally do. Whether you win or lose, you needed a manifesto that would have restored your credibility as a clean, honest and transparent party that is consciously satisfying the needs of the electorate they serve. The latest manifesto emphasis development if the poor people, agriculture and industry with the promise to make West Bengal among the top Indian States in terms of peace, per capita/ total purchasing power, education and health care facilities/ standards. Given the record of the past few years and the 34 year rule and the Communists' reluctance to admit fault without excuses as weel as to public committment to not repeat the mistakes and failures, would the electorate consider the manifesto as credible?
Maharaj: Be that as it may. But whether they will win or lose will also depend on the line up of the main rival front and their manifestos.
Sanjay: Certainly. On this account till 16th of March, the communists are well ahead. The Congress and the Tranamool are still locked in bargaining the mix of lineup of chieftain contestants for 294 constituencies. Both the parties have wasted lot of time to resolve their disputes over merely 15-18 constituencies out of the total 294. Their pre-poll alliance may not come through. Even it materialises, it may not be a very healthy, cooperating front. Either way, this is advantage to the communist alliance.
The manifestos of the Trinamool and the Congress are not very important to the electorate. They know what Indian Cingress is all about and the capabilty of the State Congress leadership to work as a team and with a clear vision of West Bengal. The electorate knows already what the Manifesto of Mamata Bannerjee's Trinamool would be - she has repeatedly said all this over and over again as to what she wants to do in West Bengal if her party comes to power. I will come back to you either on March 19 or on with all details on this.
Maharaja: What about the new generation technologies warfare at Bengal Kurukshetra?
Sanjay: This is interesting, your Excellency. New technologies like campaigns through SMS on mobile phones, websites, blogs and twitter are going to be used on a large scale for the first time in West Bengal. The mobile phone operators and Internet site owners are sniffing opportunities of great business here. Election Commission will find it difficult to keep pace with this. Another re-engineered ancient technology is going to be used. It's kite flying. The sky of West Bengal will be embracing millions of kites of colored Gren and Red - the official colours of the main rival parties. There is going to a very good demand for such kites. Since kites have to reach each house tops and each children in West Bengal, the kites will be flying only to be cut-off from the strings within few minutes of flying. As these new technologies of war fare begins, I will be able to describe to you as to how exactly they are being used in the future weeks.
Maharaj: What next, Sanjay.
Sanjay: I will soon come back to you with update on the continuing current Phase Four of Bengal Election Kurukshetra,
Sanjay: You’re right, Maharaja. Only the Marx-aligned Communist Camp has lined up all the 294 battle chieftains under the overall command of the Communist Comrade Undisputed Leader Buddadev Bhattacharya, the current Chief Minister of West Bengal . He is going to be assisted by the Marx-aligned Front leadership under the Chairmanship of Comrade Biman Bose. The list of contestant chieftains of the communists was announced on Sunday lucky 13th March evening. Immediately, small processions of communists roamed through the roads of various battle constituencies with voce vote cries. The drams started beating.
Maharaja: Any particular strategy can you discern from the formation of the communists.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. First, the average age of the chieftains have declined with the withdrawal of a large number of old guards including winning heroes of the Elections five years ago and induction of younger chieftains. Second, the women squad has been strengthened it seems, though many are yet to establish their credentials in their constituencies: Matri-Sakti (mother- power) in capturing women voters has been invoked probably to contend the Matri-Sakti-Learder Image of the rival party. Third, a few strong warriors with great vote capturing powers have been dropped because of their infamous activities in the battle of Singur, Nandigram, Sassan and/ or because of their failure to keep their rating as non-performing asset hidden from public eye or their inability to hide their corruption explosives under the carpet. Finally, some old and strong warriors have been shifted to apparently safer battle constituencies.
Maharaja: How is the line up consistent with the War Manifesto?
Sanjay: The Manifesto took quite a while this time to cook up and serve it as an ace to that is beyond the capability of comfortable, spinning return by the rival or the electorate.There are too many issues to be dealt with but all are not very substantive to the electorate. There is no wave of past glory to sail through speeding past victory line at this point. Rather, the external environment is against Communist slogans and long dictatorship, though capitalism is still nursing serious wound following the Great Recession and Financial Crisis of 2008. Bulk of Arab countries and North Africa are witnessing revolutions against erstwhile popular, national leaders who ruled for decades as fascist dictators dedicated to the poor, common man continuing to be without economic and political freedom of expressing different views. On top of this, a section of the Bengali intellectuals of performing arts are trying to stage plays like “Animal Farm” of Orwell (1945-6 vintage) that portray the fascist atrocities of dictators in the name of the proletariat.
Maharaja: What is the political drama?
Sanjay: This is the usual anti-establishment campaigns of the elite intellectuals any where. Time to time, the current Communist government of West Bengal – a part of the Indian Capitalistic State, has been trying to stop these intellectuals to stage such anti-establishment plays to reveal the ruling government’s undemocratic and fascist features. Just before the Kurukshetra Election War, this is proving to be all the more adverse to the communists. So, one of their influential leaders influenced the police to stop the staging of play by making a complaint of likely violation of the Election Commission Code of Conduct and the District Administration citing the reason for their action as the non-payment of entertainment tax by the organizers of the stage play. This has created a much publicized controversy over the communist hypocrisy when the communist Chief Minster said that the staging of the play should have been stopped by Administration while the Senior Officials serving the Chief Minister saying that the stage show was stopped because of technical deficiency of the promoters and the police showing evidence of complaint received from Chief Minister’s own party colleague saying that the staging of the ply would be breach of election code of conduct.
Maharaja: This is silly. Unnecessarily undermining the image of the communists by the party men is silly at this stage. The controversy is more damaging to the Communist War preparedness than the damage that might have been caused by the stage play itself.
Sanjay: You are right Maharaja. But as you know tempers, nervousness and tensions run high as the Elections draw near and the Great Battle is just about to start. Do not worry, the rival parties can also be expected to do such silly self-damaging acts soon. The Communists may get their chance to create controversy to inflict image degradation of the rivals.
There are more silly tactics that damaged the image of the communists. One erstwhile high flying State leader who lost Lokshabha elections in 2008, quietly brought a police-reported absconding party leader at district level to the State headquarters to settle the issue of getting a constituency to act as contestant chieftain and allowing the local police to arrest him on charges of murder, possession of unauthorised lethal weapons and other crimes. The headquarters it seems asked the police to arrest him if he so desired but did not given a ticket to the election contest. Police arrested him and put him in jail custody instead of keeping him in police custody for investigation, favoring him with a better and safer place to enjoy life and at the same time abide by the Election Commission's directive of arresting all alleged criminals against whom warrants are pending for arrest. This person was reportedly absconding for the last few years from the police but moving about in all places around the police station but not going to the police station. This hardly helps create conditions for release of a suitable Manifesto.
Maharaja: That is very unfortunate, Sanjay. But how strong is the Manifesto bombing?
Sanjay: I have not got the reports on the detailed specification of the Manifesto as yet. But it seems that it is unlikely to detonate. It uses the same old oft-repeated issues about the two Congreses - the Indian and the Trinamool variety, as being useless, utterly incompetent and pro rich as contrasted to the highly poor-dedicated, efficient communist front that continues to promise employment generation with small scale industry proliferation, rapid industrialisation (without being industrialist friendly), inflation control, land acquisition with better compensation and creating infrastructure that places West Bengal among the top Indian states in terms of education, health care, etc.
Maharaja: That should work well.
Sanjay: It seems doubtful that this Manifesto Bomb will work. It may be easily defused before it detonates. The present Manifesto seems to be saying to the electorate to chose the communists because they are less dangerous to the electorate than their rivals. There could have been more effective manifesto bombs. One, the Karat-style Bomb with ingredients of dreaming up the communist revolution to overthrow all capitalism from West Bengal in just five years after thirty three years have gone waste. Two, a Bomb with ingredients of admitting all failures and mistakes from continuing to tax petroleum fuel, to sick experiments with education, to continue all violence, to allow profiteering house-promotion activity as the main business of CPM activists and loyalists, to remove SomnathnChatterjee from the Party at the instance of a Keralite of little contribution to West Bengal or democracy, to allow police to be used by party leaders and activists in whatever way they liked, to allow a Hindu businessmen to use senior police officials to drive a poor professional to death because his daughter married this Muslim youth, to interfere in the election of the cricket association, to describe the government of West Bengal as the Left Front's government rather than the government of all the people of West Bengal, to allow low and sub-standard brains (including the one dishonest enough to declare himself as PhD while not in possession of such a degree) to rule education), to allow Maoists to proliferate and not confront them squarely with legal and security weapons, to enforce government land acquisition on hundreds of unwilling poor farmers and bargadars and firing to kill some of them when they were in protest agitation, to allow unions and musclemen to act as chieftains of government hospitals, and so on.
Maharaja: How can you expect a ruling front to admit their mistakes and failures and yet win elections?
Sanjay: If you don't, your bomb manifesto does not seem credible to the electorate. The issue is not of winning elections for a genuinely pro-poor party. It is one of re-establishing their credibility. Even if they win this Elections, they would still be without credibility with the current manifesto. It would just be another five-year term for a party without direction and credibility. On the other hand, by admitting to all their failures and faults comprehensively and unhesitatingly and promising not to repeat any such mistake in future, they would have regained credibility. Without credibility, you cannot really become a better party than the rivals, however, badly you paint them in the manifesto.
The Communists have wasted the last chance of coming out again as a clean party. You cannot predict what the electorate will finally do. Whether you win or lose, you needed a manifesto that would have restored your credibility as a clean, honest and transparent party that is consciously satisfying the needs of the electorate they serve. The latest manifesto emphasis development if the poor people, agriculture and industry with the promise to make West Bengal among the top Indian States in terms of peace, per capita/ total purchasing power, education and health care facilities/ standards. Given the record of the past few years and the 34 year rule and the Communists' reluctance to admit fault without excuses as weel as to public committment to not repeat the mistakes and failures, would the electorate consider the manifesto as credible?
Maharaj: Be that as it may. But whether they will win or lose will also depend on the line up of the main rival front and their manifestos.
Sanjay: Certainly. On this account till 16th of March, the communists are well ahead. The Congress and the Tranamool are still locked in bargaining the mix of lineup of chieftain contestants for 294 constituencies. Both the parties have wasted lot of time to resolve their disputes over merely 15-18 constituencies out of the total 294. Their pre-poll alliance may not come through. Even it materialises, it may not be a very healthy, cooperating front. Either way, this is advantage to the communist alliance.
The manifestos of the Trinamool and the Congress are not very important to the electorate. They know what Indian Cingress is all about and the capabilty of the State Congress leadership to work as a team and with a clear vision of West Bengal. The electorate knows already what the Manifesto of Mamata Bannerjee's Trinamool would be - she has repeatedly said all this over and over again as to what she wants to do in West Bengal if her party comes to power. I will come back to you either on March 19 or on with all details on this.
Maharaja: What about the new generation technologies warfare at Bengal Kurukshetra?
Sanjay: This is interesting, your Excellency. New technologies like campaigns through SMS on mobile phones, websites, blogs and twitter are going to be used on a large scale for the first time in West Bengal. The mobile phone operators and Internet site owners are sniffing opportunities of great business here. Election Commission will find it difficult to keep pace with this. Another re-engineered ancient technology is going to be used. It's kite flying. The sky of West Bengal will be embracing millions of kites of colored Gren and Red - the official colours of the main rival parties. There is going to a very good demand for such kites. Since kites have to reach each house tops and each children in West Bengal, the kites will be flying only to be cut-off from the strings within few minutes of flying. As these new technologies of war fare begins, I will be able to describe to you as to how exactly they are being used in the future weeks.
Maharaj: What next, Sanjay.
Sanjay: I will soon come back to you with update on the continuing current Phase Four of Bengal Election Kurukshetra,
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Bengal Prepares: Election Kurukshetra Phase Three
Sanjay: The phase three of Bengal Kurukshetra has begun.
Maharaj: How is the fight going on? Who is leading?
Sanjay: No, Sir the battles in the third phase have not started as yet. It is all preparations going on currently in different party camps, within rival alliance groups and between the warrior political parties and the Neutral Regulator, EC (the Election Commission), to ensure free but fair battles.
Maharaj: Then, tell me the developments in difference camps.
Sanjay: First, about the EC’s announcement of the dates of last round of battles: the battle grounds have been grouped into six clusters and six different dates – three in the second half of April and three in the first half of May have been fixed.
The final results of the Great War would be available on live screen on May 13 – lucky day for the EC- three days after the last battle of the last round is over.
Maharaj: Why is all this necessary?
Sanjay: Because, the Great Kurukshetra Election War of West Bengal 2011 is an officially held War. The EC does not want any of the illegal, unfair and bloody warfare activities generally being resorted to in the battles unofficially held for the last one and half year between the rival parties.
Maharaj: How does the EC ensure that?
Sanjay: EC has certain prescribed codes that the parties will have to follow and there are certain rules that all contesting parties must adhere to. EC will regularly monitor the compliance of each party and penalize offenders. It has its own army of peace-keeping forces, monitors, investigators to carry out its responsibilities for free and fair war.
Maharaj: Give me some idea about the important rules.
Sanjay: Use of some weapons is banned as soon as the EC has announces the dates. For example, no major voter-benefiting decision can be taken by the Ruling party without the prior approval of the EC. It is already examining an alleged violation by the West Bengal’s Finance Minister of having cleared such decision files late at night on the day the EC made the announcement of the War schedule.
Similarly, investigations are going on alleged use of official/ red-light blinking car by certain minister and on alleged distribution of cycles to school girls by another minister. The EC has also sent notices to the State Government to remove all posters and suspend advertisements suggesting/ claiming that the Government of the CPM-led Left Front is the People’s own Government. The Kolkata Municipality has been told to remove all posters that promote the image of the TMC and its leader. Otherwise, the EC will remove all such posters, hoarding, wall painted advertisement at the cost of the parties concerned and this expenditure will be counted as election expenditure of the party candidates in the elections. The TMC Mayor of Kolkata Municipal Corporation was seem immediately supervising removal of TMC leader's large cut-out images from the premises of the Municipal office. The CPM is trying to take back the cycles from the girl students.
Maharaj: What is this election expenditure limit you were referring to.?
Sanjay: As per the Election War Rules, there is a limit on the amount a candidate contesting the elections can spend on election campaigns to publicize his candidacy including distribution of manifesto literature, conducting meetings, expenses on related travels, food and lodging, salaries to his agents and other service providers to help him in his campaign. The spending limit for a Parliamentary constituency in major States now stands at Rs. 40 lakh and for Assembly constituencies in the major States at Rs. 16 lakh. Surprisingly, however, expenditure on election campaigns by political parties are outside the purview of these limits. Still the contestants find this limit too little to compete properly. This argument is invalid though: because each candidate has the same limit and the voters can be directly contacted at home by personal visits for soliciting votes. But the politicians want to use modern technology and advertising/ promotion campaigns in the same way as consumer goods marketing departments do. So, they manage to spend much more than the legally permissible limit.
Maharaj: How do they do this?
Sanjay: That has been very easy in India. The candidates do not spend this extra amount on official records. This expenditure is incurred out of black money generated by the economic and administrative system designed by the politicians themselves. The extra amount is spent unofficially by the political parties and the rich traders and industrialists that have to appease the politicians to get favor to evade taxes, get government permissions/ approvals for the businesses and as extortion money. But now the EC has designed a system to monitor the election campaign activities and the expenditure associated with such activity during the campaigns. Besides, they have alerted the Income Tax department to collaborate with them regarding large cash withdrawals from banks that are likely to be used for illegal spending on election campaigns by parties and candidates.
Maharaj: Don’t these politicians and political parties submit income tax returns.
Sanjay: Yes Sir, the politicians do. But they may not disclose to the income tax all their black incomes and stash them in bank accounts in the name of party workers and others who do not have white income enough to give taxes. Most importantly, the political parties are not subject to income tax, independent audit committees and statutory auditing as per any specified generally accepted accounting standards as in the case of companies. The Accounts of political parties are not even required to be disclosed to the public through advertisements or website. This system of protection to political parties with black money transactions has been designed by the politicians themselves. They talk about manipulation of accounts by companies and sit in Committees to investigate frauds and tax evasion by companies but no one can scrutinize their accounts in public interest.
Maharaj: That is damn good design for political business! What can the EC do then?
Sanjay: Even within the limitations of the system, they are trying their best. Maybe, sooner or later, they will insist on political parties to submit audited accounts and cash flow statements to the EC and publish these in the newspapers.
Maharaj: So, preparations are going on to deal with the EC regulations and inspections and investigations. But how are inner party conflicts?
Sanjay: These are to be sorted out soon. In all parties, there are various groups/ factions at the National/ State and district levels. The main issue is about devising the appropriate party selling points and distribution of the fixed number of contestable constituencies among competing potential candidates. TMC seems to have little or no problem of inner party conflicts because the Campaign Content and the candidates are decided primarily by its leader who has the last word: either you accept her final verdict or leave the party: there is not much scope for negotiating or bargaining with her beyond presenting your case once. She is the only rallying point for all other leaders and workers in the party and all supporters in the party. They will go with whatever she decides: even if they wanted to defy her: that would hurt them and not the leader or the party.
Maharaj: What about Congress and CPM?
Sanjay: There are a lot of conflicts to be resolved here. For CPM, the officially approved leader is the current Chief Minister, Buddhadev Bhattacharyya but the factions in the districts are recommending many candidates that the State level leaders are not willing to accept because of their principles of distance from corruption or contribution to the party’s electoral achievements in the recent past. Similarly, the All-India CPM leaders are debating about the emphasis on different selling points for the party manifesto and election campaign literature. They are reportedly not on all points with the State level leaders. These conflicts led to some delays in CPM’s announcement of candidates and release of the manifesto. In the case of one of CPM’s coalition partners, the RSP, there is already a revolt against a prominent senior State leader being accommodated as the candidate in a constituency from where the local leader got elected last time. This problem has arisen because the senior leader’s earlier constituency has been reorganized and therefore he has little chance to win from any of the neighboring reorganized constituencies and had to look for a safe constituency for the party elsewhere. The coalition partners of CPM’s left front are weak both individually and together and therefore have no alternative but to be contented with the CPM-dominated marginal existence till such time CPM fails to win adequate seats to form a government even with the support of coalition partners. So, occasionaly on paper the coalition partners like the CPI may criticize CPM for their mistakes that cost popularity and credibility of the Left front alliance and for not taking the small partners into confidence, in real terms they do nothing effective against the CPM.
Maharaj: And how is Congress placed?
Sanjay: There are two factions within the State Congress. One, those who are very hopeful about a great Congress revival in the State assembly elections despite their loss of face in the recent Kolkata Municipal elections where they went ahead without alliance with TMC which swept the elections to a majority victory. This group has strong reservations about accepting TMC leader’s dominance over a possible alliance. They want a one-third of the total constituencies be allocated to Congress against TMC leader’s informal indication of allocation about half that number though reportedly she may show her affection to Congress’s national leaders by allocating up to 60 seats to the State Congress. Two, those who feel, along with the national level Congress leaders, that only a coalition lead by the TMC leader is in the ultimate interest of the Congress and removal of the CPM-dominated left front from power in West Bengal. This group would probably accept any number of seats allocated by the TMC leader to Congress to fight the elections as a coalition partner.
Maharaj: So, the TMC-Congress Coalition may still be a still-born one.
Sanjay: We cannot rule out that possibility. But the Congress Central leadership will not be willing to allow the State Congress to ruin the brightest opportunity that they have ever seen to beat the CPM and the left front hands down.
Maharaj: How long will take all these conflicts to be resolved and the real battles begin.
Sanjay: Just wait for a week Maharaj. By then the line up will be ready, the War cries will be heard and campaign battles start.
Maharaj: How is the fight going on? Who is leading?
Sanjay: No, Sir the battles in the third phase have not started as yet. It is all preparations going on currently in different party camps, within rival alliance groups and between the warrior political parties and the Neutral Regulator, EC (the Election Commission), to ensure free but fair battles.
Maharaj: Then, tell me the developments in difference camps.
Sanjay: First, about the EC’s announcement of the dates of last round of battles: the battle grounds have been grouped into six clusters and six different dates – three in the second half of April and three in the first half of May have been fixed.
The final results of the Great War would be available on live screen on May 13 – lucky day for the EC- three days after the last battle of the last round is over.
Maharaj: Why is all this necessary?
Sanjay: Because, the Great Kurukshetra Election War of West Bengal 2011 is an officially held War. The EC does not want any of the illegal, unfair and bloody warfare activities generally being resorted to in the battles unofficially held for the last one and half year between the rival parties.
Maharaj: How does the EC ensure that?
Sanjay: EC has certain prescribed codes that the parties will have to follow and there are certain rules that all contesting parties must adhere to. EC will regularly monitor the compliance of each party and penalize offenders. It has its own army of peace-keeping forces, monitors, investigators to carry out its responsibilities for free and fair war.
Maharaj: Give me some idea about the important rules.
Sanjay: Use of some weapons is banned as soon as the EC has announces the dates. For example, no major voter-benefiting decision can be taken by the Ruling party without the prior approval of the EC. It is already examining an alleged violation by the West Bengal’s Finance Minister of having cleared such decision files late at night on the day the EC made the announcement of the War schedule.
Similarly, investigations are going on alleged use of official/ red-light blinking car by certain minister and on alleged distribution of cycles to school girls by another minister. The EC has also sent notices to the State Government to remove all posters and suspend advertisements suggesting/ claiming that the Government of the CPM-led Left Front is the People’s own Government. The Kolkata Municipality has been told to remove all posters that promote the image of the TMC and its leader. Otherwise, the EC will remove all such posters, hoarding, wall painted advertisement at the cost of the parties concerned and this expenditure will be counted as election expenditure of the party candidates in the elections. The TMC Mayor of Kolkata Municipal Corporation was seem immediately supervising removal of TMC leader's large cut-out images from the premises of the Municipal office. The CPM is trying to take back the cycles from the girl students.
Maharaj: What is this election expenditure limit you were referring to.?
Sanjay: As per the Election War Rules, there is a limit on the amount a candidate contesting the elections can spend on election campaigns to publicize his candidacy including distribution of manifesto literature, conducting meetings, expenses on related travels, food and lodging, salaries to his agents and other service providers to help him in his campaign. The spending limit for a Parliamentary constituency in major States now stands at Rs. 40 lakh and for Assembly constituencies in the major States at Rs. 16 lakh. Surprisingly, however, expenditure on election campaigns by political parties are outside the purview of these limits. Still the contestants find this limit too little to compete properly. This argument is invalid though: because each candidate has the same limit and the voters can be directly contacted at home by personal visits for soliciting votes. But the politicians want to use modern technology and advertising/ promotion campaigns in the same way as consumer goods marketing departments do. So, they manage to spend much more than the legally permissible limit.
Maharaj: How do they do this?
Sanjay: That has been very easy in India. The candidates do not spend this extra amount on official records. This expenditure is incurred out of black money generated by the economic and administrative system designed by the politicians themselves. The extra amount is spent unofficially by the political parties and the rich traders and industrialists that have to appease the politicians to get favor to evade taxes, get government permissions/ approvals for the businesses and as extortion money. But now the EC has designed a system to monitor the election campaign activities and the expenditure associated with such activity during the campaigns. Besides, they have alerted the Income Tax department to collaborate with them regarding large cash withdrawals from banks that are likely to be used for illegal spending on election campaigns by parties and candidates.
Maharaj: Don’t these politicians and political parties submit income tax returns.
Sanjay: Yes Sir, the politicians do. But they may not disclose to the income tax all their black incomes and stash them in bank accounts in the name of party workers and others who do not have white income enough to give taxes. Most importantly, the political parties are not subject to income tax, independent audit committees and statutory auditing as per any specified generally accepted accounting standards as in the case of companies. The Accounts of political parties are not even required to be disclosed to the public through advertisements or website. This system of protection to political parties with black money transactions has been designed by the politicians themselves. They talk about manipulation of accounts by companies and sit in Committees to investigate frauds and tax evasion by companies but no one can scrutinize their accounts in public interest.
Maharaj: That is damn good design for political business! What can the EC do then?
Sanjay: Even within the limitations of the system, they are trying their best. Maybe, sooner or later, they will insist on political parties to submit audited accounts and cash flow statements to the EC and publish these in the newspapers.
Maharaj: So, preparations are going on to deal with the EC regulations and inspections and investigations. But how are inner party conflicts?
Sanjay: These are to be sorted out soon. In all parties, there are various groups/ factions at the National/ State and district levels. The main issue is about devising the appropriate party selling points and distribution of the fixed number of contestable constituencies among competing potential candidates. TMC seems to have little or no problem of inner party conflicts because the Campaign Content and the candidates are decided primarily by its leader who has the last word: either you accept her final verdict or leave the party: there is not much scope for negotiating or bargaining with her beyond presenting your case once. She is the only rallying point for all other leaders and workers in the party and all supporters in the party. They will go with whatever she decides: even if they wanted to defy her: that would hurt them and not the leader or the party.
Maharaj: What about Congress and CPM?
Sanjay: There are a lot of conflicts to be resolved here. For CPM, the officially approved leader is the current Chief Minister, Buddhadev Bhattacharyya but the factions in the districts are recommending many candidates that the State level leaders are not willing to accept because of their principles of distance from corruption or contribution to the party’s electoral achievements in the recent past. Similarly, the All-India CPM leaders are debating about the emphasis on different selling points for the party manifesto and election campaign literature. They are reportedly not on all points with the State level leaders. These conflicts led to some delays in CPM’s announcement of candidates and release of the manifesto. In the case of one of CPM’s coalition partners, the RSP, there is already a revolt against a prominent senior State leader being accommodated as the candidate in a constituency from where the local leader got elected last time. This problem has arisen because the senior leader’s earlier constituency has been reorganized and therefore he has little chance to win from any of the neighboring reorganized constituencies and had to look for a safe constituency for the party elsewhere. The coalition partners of CPM’s left front are weak both individually and together and therefore have no alternative but to be contented with the CPM-dominated marginal existence till such time CPM fails to win adequate seats to form a government even with the support of coalition partners. So, occasionaly on paper the coalition partners like the CPI may criticize CPM for their mistakes that cost popularity and credibility of the Left front alliance and for not taking the small partners into confidence, in real terms they do nothing effective against the CPM.
Maharaj: And how is Congress placed?
Sanjay: There are two factions within the State Congress. One, those who are very hopeful about a great Congress revival in the State assembly elections despite their loss of face in the recent Kolkata Municipal elections where they went ahead without alliance with TMC which swept the elections to a majority victory. This group has strong reservations about accepting TMC leader’s dominance over a possible alliance. They want a one-third of the total constituencies be allocated to Congress against TMC leader’s informal indication of allocation about half that number though reportedly she may show her affection to Congress’s national leaders by allocating up to 60 seats to the State Congress. Two, those who feel, along with the national level Congress leaders, that only a coalition lead by the TMC leader is in the ultimate interest of the Congress and removal of the CPM-dominated left front from power in West Bengal. This group would probably accept any number of seats allocated by the TMC leader to Congress to fight the elections as a coalition partner.
Maharaj: So, the TMC-Congress Coalition may still be a still-born one.
Sanjay: We cannot rule out that possibility. But the Congress Central leadership will not be willing to allow the State Congress to ruin the brightest opportunity that they have ever seen to beat the CPM and the left front hands down.
Maharaj: How long will take all these conflicts to be resolved and the real battles begin.
Sanjay: Just wait for a week Maharaj. By then the line up will be ready, the War cries will be heard and campaign battles start.
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