Sanjay: Maharaja, the War has entered the most crucial phase 10 with Round three polling in 75 constituencies in the three South-eastern districts of 24 Parganas (Surth), 24 Parganas (North) and Kolkata.
Maharaja: Why do you call this as Crucial?
Sanjay: For a number of reasons, Sir. First, the number of seats in these districts account for more than 25% of the total number of seats to be battled for. Who ever takes a significant lead here, gets a real edge. Second, this is the region where the communists have to put up the best of their fight back. In the Lok Sabha elections in 2009, the communists trailed in all most all the parts of these 75 constituencies. In the subsequent municipal elections, Mamata's Trinamool made a clean sweep in Kolkata and Salt Lake. Two top ranking communist leaders, chief minister Buddhadev and housing minister Gautam Dev are fighting to get majority voters' favour in this round slated for April 27.
Maharaja: What is your assessment at this stage, Sanjay?
Sanjay: Your Excellency, forgive me for my inability to forecast the results and tell you whether the communists will get the requisite majority to retain power in West Bengal. I can only tell you the situation as it prevails now and how the rivals are poised in their fight just before the Round3 polling.
Maharaja: Go ahead. I will make my own conclusions based on what you observe.
Sanjay: It seems that in this War the communists are making their best efforts to come back. They are putting up a brave face. But they do not seem to be confident. All their attacks have been futile and some have boomeranged. They attacked with all sorts of weaponry: 'TMC= Black Money" has boomeranged, no one believes that Mamata is a corrupt person as the communists tried to project, no one believes that Mamata is the friend of the rich and enemy of the poor, the same is true of the communist claim that the United States of America is supporting Mamata, people have been annoyed by one communist candidate calling Mamata as a woman of fallen background and few would agree with communist assertion that the Railways are in a bad financial state and the performance of the Railway Minister has been poor.
Maharaja: Do you mean to say that all these attacks have gone in vain?
Sanjay: Not really. These attacks have failed on the general mass of voters. But these attacks have invigorated the communists' captive voters - they have and will turn out to polling stations to cast their votes so that the communists' do not lose any votes just because their committed supporters have realized that they cannot depend any longer on polling booth and other manipulations. So, the communists are likely to see full attendance of their committed voters in polling stations.
Maharaja: That is a positive factor: 100% utilization of captivated voters.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. And this is important this time because for the first time after 34 years, the communists are really defending against an onslaught they have never seen and there is no way to manipulate the turf managed by the Election Commission. Rather, they have difficulty in smothering the attack of the rivals.
Maharaja: Is there really any attack on the communists that they need to defend.
Sanjay: There are many. Despite the economic progress that West Bengal has made in last 34 years, the performance of the communist government has proved to dismal. Law & order position has been poor, especially in the last three years and people would tend to believe in what the Indian Home Minister Chidambaram of the Congress Party reportedly said: Governance in West Bengal has been the worst among all major states in India. That Buddhdev's call for 'Do it now' has yielded nothing is recognised by every citizen.That the State finances are in doldrums is known by every citizen. That the communists did use their own armed hooligans to control territories through terror and atrocities on rural people is no more a secret after the Netai killing incident. That the main communist party depended on leaders, activists and supporters who have enriched themselves taking advantage of the party being in power and who have been arrogant, has been admitted by the party itself. The party's program of weeding out bad elements from the party has not been transparent enough to be credible to the voters.
Maharaja: Have the rivals attacked the communists along these lines?
Sanjay: They had just to remind or help the voters recall their memory. And, that is strong enough an attack, that the communists are unable to defend. The communists are beaten heavily on these grounds.
Maharaja: Your observations are generating shivers down the spine.
Sanjay: Do not worry Maharaja. Your favourite communists are still fighting with bravery and lot of guts. They can still retain their power if they can do a miraculous turn-around in the three districts that goes to poll on April 27. And, remember the communists still have the most organised cadre of workers and leaders with decades of experience together unlike the Trinamool Congress. So, while the Mamata Wave could jeopardise the prospects of the communists, the strength of the organised, efficient voter gathering machinery could help neutralise the impact of the Mamata Wave.
Maharaja: How certain can the communists be of using their voter gathering machinery for ensuring a win?
Sanjay: I cannot say that. But I can give you an illustration to show how the communists can win. Just work with some off-the cuff figures like this: the committed communist voter percentage is 33, the committed anti-communist percentage is 25. About 15 percentage vote depending on who they think would be the winner, 10 percent exercise their judgements independently while another 20% do not come to vote or their votes are snatched out by political party goons. It is clear that Mamata wave cannot reduce the committed communist Percentage of 30 or increase the committed anti-communist percentage of 25. Given that the elections would be fair and free, the non-voting percentage may come down to 15. Thus the potential size of operation of Mamata effect and communist voter gathering machiner effect is 5 (genuine conversion of non-casting voters to casting voters, 15 of the in favour of winners and 10 of the independents. Let us say that the Mamata effect is quite considerable and results in 4 out of the first 5, 11 of the second 15 and 6 of the 10 indepentent voters go to TMC alliance along with 22 out of the 25 confirmed anti-communists votes, leaving 3 percentage points to BJP and others. So how much does Mamata alliance collect?: 22+6+11+4= 43 out of 85 percent of the votes cast. How much do the communists collect?: 30+4+4+1+1=40 out of 85. This small negative difference of 3 can be easily converted into a positive difference of 3 if the communists cadres with their organised strength can snatch 1% point more voters among each of the three classes: Converted vote casters, going with the wind and independents. So easy.
Maharaja: I understand what you are saying even if your assumed guesses are not accurate. The communists have to work hard at the margin.
Sanjay: You are right Sir. And, instead of trying to win with high difference in some areas, they must concentrate on spreading their efforts among many consituencies to win by smaller margins. Winning seats is important: the extent of margin over the defeated rival is not important. For example, in chief minister Buddhadev's Jadavpur constiuency, the communists need not have wasted much resources because the likelihood of Mamata effect changing the large positive vote bank margin in his constituency to a negative one. But putting extra resources and efforts in the Dum Dum constituency where housing minister Gautam Dev is contesting could help him effectively counteract the Mamata wave supported by the Prime Minister Monmohan Singh who led a scathing attack on the communists at a joint Trinamool- Congress rally few Somnath Chatterjee, former speaker of Lok Shava, who was expelled by the CPM and Ashok Mitra, former Finance Minister of West Bengal, who was eased out of circulation by Jyoti Basu some twenty years ago, were brought into election meetings to invigorate the elderly communist sympathisers to cast their votes in favour of communist candidates rather than sitting at home nursing thier grievance against the current ruling communist leaders flaunting their arrogance and new found riches.
Maharaja: You have at last given me some reason to be confident of my optimism about the communists retaining their power in West Bengal.
Sanjay: But if the Mamata wave turns out to be stronger than the 3 percentage point difference, communists may lose out. Watch out the Mamata Wave Effect on female voters, strengthened by lot of TV and cinema idols campaiging for Mamata's Trinamool Congress. The fear of repraisal for voting against the communists has considerably gone down because of the Election Commission's efforts and the joining of popular TV/ Cinema actors and anchors publicly supporting Mamata.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Round 2 on Black Money: Bengal Kurukshetra Phase Nine
Sanjay: Maharaja, there is good news for you.
Maharaja: Have the communists got some wind in the sails against the high Mamata Waves.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. Buddha-Biman-Gautam trio have generated self propelled winds that appear strong. First, Guatam has dismissed the StarAnanda-battles Neilsens' psephologists' predictions of a Mamata Trinamool majority. The communists reportedly claim that they had done well in the Round-1 in the Northern front and that they would win close to 40 of the 54 constituencies where polling was over.
Maharaja: That is very good. Will the same trend continue in the next five rounds of polling?
Sanjay: I am yet to see the writing on the wall. But the communists have generated self-propelled strong winds to sail through the second round of battles in another 50 constituencies in mid-land Bengal. They have made it clear to the Press that the pesphsologists' Mamata sweep as all cooked up and this would not turn voters away from the communists. First, the Star-Ananda poll has not covered all the 294 battle fronts but only about 163 of them and have not detailed their methodology so that the representativeness and appropriateness of the stratified sample survey could be examined and hence the methodology itself and the findings are highly suspect. Second, the opinion poll surveys published in the past elections have proved wrong and hence would be proved wrong this time again. So, the communists would get enough majority to retain power.
Maharaja: This is a great fight back by the communists against rumours sponsored by the enemy camp. What do you think?
Sanjay: Sir, I do not know whether all these are rumours. Irrespective of the opinion poll survey, Mamata wave seems to be reality: how strong I would not be able to judge from such distance away from the battlefields.Yes, the communists are really fighting back. They have launched severe counter attacks on the enemy.
Maharaja: What kind of counter-attacks?
Sanjay: First, the missiles of black money scandals. First, communist chief minister, Buddha questioned as to where from Mamata's Trinamool Congress is getting huge sums of monies for using copter's to hop from one election campaign meeting to another? Communist front leader Biman expressed the suspicion that Trinamool Congress is getting black money of huge amounts to fund its electioneering campaign. National-level communist leaders Karat and Yechury hinted at moving the Election Commission complaining about Trinamool Congress using large amounts of black money. Finally, local communist housing minister, Guatam Deb, held a press meet with clues to proof that Mamata and Trinamool Congress amassing and spending about Rs 100 crore of black money: he advised the journalists to pursue these clues and get the proofs for themselves. He told that he had video-taped Trinamool Congress putting on fire tons of coupons in huge bags at night: these coupons are supposed to given to the people against their donations to Trinamool Congress to support them for funding election expenses. He said that the counterfoil of the coupons were kept to prove that the Trinamool Congress had collected donations of Rs 100 or Rs 500 from the common people, while in fact they had collected huge amount of black money cash from rich industrialist and businessmen. He further said that each Trinamool election candidate was given cash of Rs15 lakhs in two days in the last week March and this fact has been shared with him by one of the honest Trinamool Congress candidate who declined to take that money because he would not lose his reputation by touching black money. He said he has kept more evidence of black money use of Mamata's party up his sleeves and will release such information when appropriate.
Maharaja: That is a great bomb Gautam has blasted on the enemy. With this he has made Mamata look like a corrupt woman tarnishing her image of absolute honesty and a poor who does not even wear a shoe but cheap slippers.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. That is indeed great. But the communists had in the process invited counter-missile attacks of black money use by the communists. Trinamool has made a secret open that the Communist P:arty of India (Marxists) which has rules only three small states of India is the fourth largest political party in terms of assets. They have charged that many communist leaders and activists have amassed considerable amounts of wealth that were reflected in the dramatic up gradation of their and their family's ways and styles of living observed by the people, that Goutam Deb himself has collected black money bribe of Rs 100 crore by allotting 600 flats owned by the Government of West Bengal, besides allotting a flat to his wife, and that the communist chief minister Buddhadeb's daughter manages a non-profit agencies whose sources of funds is tainted black money. Trinamool Congress workers at one place confronted a communist MP reported distributing cash to poor voters: the communist daily said that this was a planned operation by the Trinamool workers along with press photographers to tarnish the image of the communists.
Maharaja: My God, this is great shock to the communist image. Are these allegations against the communists true?
Sanjay: What is true and false is not important or relevant, Sir. The committed, loyal and blind supporters of either party will believe in the allegations made by their respective parties against the opponents. As for the rest, they do not believe that political parties do not use black money. They know that rich and wealthy people give monies to political parties in lakhs and hundreds of lakhs of rupees and few of them would like to get identified by giving donations to political parties through cheques. So, the colour of majority of funds flowing to political parties will be tainted as black. They also know that the story of coupons beings destroyed would be very common across all parties if they have to account for large sums of money as having been collected as donations. So, they would cast their votes independent of the allegations and counter allegations on black money use.
Maharaja: Then, the black money weapon fight has gone in vain with neither party gaining much advantage.
Sanjay: Your assessment may be close to Truth, Maharaja. But fights have to be part of electioneering. The communists have used the anti-American sentiment missiles also. According to Press reports quoting wikileaks the US consular office in Kolkata, West Bengal had sent an assessment cable to Washington suggesting that Mamata might be a strong factor in West Bengal and interactions with her should be pursued. So, the communists have dubbed Mamata as a pro-American, pro-rich political leader against the common man.
Maharaja: That seems interesting. What would be the impact of this weapon?
Sanjay: The Bengali's - rich or poor, generally think of themselves as the super-intelligent race and therefore are very jealous of America being the richest country and trying to influence politics all around the World. So, this weapon should be effective among the half-educated, pond-frog mentality middle class and Bengal's industrialist intellectual voters. The only thing is that few of them would really believe that with all their problems of economic stagnation and unemployment and headaches in Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, middle-east and elsewhere, whether the Americans would be really holding out a hand to Mamata's a small party politicking in the small, economically insignificant state of West Bengal in India?
Maharaja: So, what does all this mean to the Round 2 polling in 50 constituencies on April 23?
Sanjay: A section of the intellectuals is very unhappy at one of the communist contestants in the districts referring to Mamata as a woman from a infamous locality and using other abusive language. The fact that Buddha-Biman reprimand has gone to the CPM leader using abusive language is not of much consequence now. Some women intellectuals have deplored this as cowardice on the part of communist menfolk. Bengali gentlemen are very patriarchal and love women as equal only in love: they may not like to be ruled by women. Many men are her followers now and accept her leadership. Women see in Mamata the rise of women power. Many women whose families have suffered fro communist men's atrocities in the past see in her a saviour, and they along with many other women would like Mamata to lead West Bengal to rule Indian political scene if for nothing else but to see the Bengali men folk realise the power of women.
Maharaja: Are you predicting a grand slam by Mamata at this Bengal Kurukshetra?
Sanjay: I am no astrologer or psephologist. I am a senior citizen whom no political party really cares. It is the younger generations who will reap what they sow today in the elections. I'm at the fag end of the day and a burden on the society. My fate is not going to be significantly altered whether Mamata or the communists come to power. No party is interested in senior citizens like me. I am just narrating to you what I observe. Be assured that there are many women in Bengal who would like to be ruled by Marxists' men however crude or hypocrite, rather than accepting another woman as leader of the State. So, you and your communist friends have a chance of extended life. The Round 2 Elections recorded close to 85% polling. Whoever wins, the electorate and the Election Commission is sure to get the applaud aplenty.
Maharaja: Sanjay, your narration of the War is too neutral to give me comfort.
Sanjay: Your Excellency, do not lose heart. Battles and Wars are not so simple all the time. In some Wars, there is close finish and in some Wars you do not know the results much after the War is over. Bengal Kurukshetra is still young. On April 27, battles will be fought in 75 more seats. I will come back to you soon with the latest war news soon.
Maharaja: Have the communists got some wind in the sails against the high Mamata Waves.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. Buddha-Biman-Gautam trio have generated self propelled winds that appear strong. First, Guatam has dismissed the StarAnanda-battles Neilsens' psephologists' predictions of a Mamata Trinamool majority. The communists reportedly claim that they had done well in the Round-1 in the Northern front and that they would win close to 40 of the 54 constituencies where polling was over.
Maharaja: That is very good. Will the same trend continue in the next five rounds of polling?
Sanjay: I am yet to see the writing on the wall. But the communists have generated self-propelled strong winds to sail through the second round of battles in another 50 constituencies in mid-land Bengal. They have made it clear to the Press that the pesphsologists' Mamata sweep as all cooked up and this would not turn voters away from the communists. First, the Star-Ananda poll has not covered all the 294 battle fronts but only about 163 of them and have not detailed their methodology so that the representativeness and appropriateness of the stratified sample survey could be examined and hence the methodology itself and the findings are highly suspect. Second, the opinion poll surveys published in the past elections have proved wrong and hence would be proved wrong this time again. So, the communists would get enough majority to retain power.
Maharaja: This is a great fight back by the communists against rumours sponsored by the enemy camp. What do you think?
Sanjay: Sir, I do not know whether all these are rumours. Irrespective of the opinion poll survey, Mamata wave seems to be reality: how strong I would not be able to judge from such distance away from the battlefields.Yes, the communists are really fighting back. They have launched severe counter attacks on the enemy.
Maharaja: What kind of counter-attacks?
Sanjay: First, the missiles of black money scandals. First, communist chief minister, Buddha questioned as to where from Mamata's Trinamool Congress is getting huge sums of monies for using copter's to hop from one election campaign meeting to another? Communist front leader Biman expressed the suspicion that Trinamool Congress is getting black money of huge amounts to fund its electioneering campaign. National-level communist leaders Karat and Yechury hinted at moving the Election Commission complaining about Trinamool Congress using large amounts of black money. Finally, local communist housing minister, Guatam Deb, held a press meet with clues to proof that Mamata and Trinamool Congress amassing and spending about Rs 100 crore of black money: he advised the journalists to pursue these clues and get the proofs for themselves. He told that he had video-taped Trinamool Congress putting on fire tons of coupons in huge bags at night: these coupons are supposed to given to the people against their donations to Trinamool Congress to support them for funding election expenses. He said that the counterfoil of the coupons were kept to prove that the Trinamool Congress had collected donations of Rs 100 or Rs 500 from the common people, while in fact they had collected huge amount of black money cash from rich industrialist and businessmen. He further said that each Trinamool election candidate was given cash of Rs15 lakhs in two days in the last week March and this fact has been shared with him by one of the honest Trinamool Congress candidate who declined to take that money because he would not lose his reputation by touching black money. He said he has kept more evidence of black money use of Mamata's party up his sleeves and will release such information when appropriate.
Maharaja: That is a great bomb Gautam has blasted on the enemy. With this he has made Mamata look like a corrupt woman tarnishing her image of absolute honesty and a poor who does not even wear a shoe but cheap slippers.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. That is indeed great. But the communists had in the process invited counter-missile attacks of black money use by the communists. Trinamool has made a secret open that the Communist P:arty of India (Marxists) which has rules only three small states of India is the fourth largest political party in terms of assets. They have charged that many communist leaders and activists have amassed considerable amounts of wealth that were reflected in the dramatic up gradation of their and their family's ways and styles of living observed by the people, that Goutam Deb himself has collected black money bribe of Rs 100 crore by allotting 600 flats owned by the Government of West Bengal, besides allotting a flat to his wife, and that the communist chief minister Buddhadeb's daughter manages a non-profit agencies whose sources of funds is tainted black money. Trinamool Congress workers at one place confronted a communist MP reported distributing cash to poor voters: the communist daily said that this was a planned operation by the Trinamool workers along with press photographers to tarnish the image of the communists.
Maharaja: My God, this is great shock to the communist image. Are these allegations against the communists true?
Sanjay: What is true and false is not important or relevant, Sir. The committed, loyal and blind supporters of either party will believe in the allegations made by their respective parties against the opponents. As for the rest, they do not believe that political parties do not use black money. They know that rich and wealthy people give monies to political parties in lakhs and hundreds of lakhs of rupees and few of them would like to get identified by giving donations to political parties through cheques. So, the colour of majority of funds flowing to political parties will be tainted as black. They also know that the story of coupons beings destroyed would be very common across all parties if they have to account for large sums of money as having been collected as donations. So, they would cast their votes independent of the allegations and counter allegations on black money use.
Maharaja: Then, the black money weapon fight has gone in vain with neither party gaining much advantage.
Sanjay: Your assessment may be close to Truth, Maharaja. But fights have to be part of electioneering. The communists have used the anti-American sentiment missiles also. According to Press reports quoting wikileaks the US consular office in Kolkata, West Bengal had sent an assessment cable to Washington suggesting that Mamata might be a strong factor in West Bengal and interactions with her should be pursued. So, the communists have dubbed Mamata as a pro-American, pro-rich political leader against the common man.
Maharaja: That seems interesting. What would be the impact of this weapon?
Sanjay: The Bengali's - rich or poor, generally think of themselves as the super-intelligent race and therefore are very jealous of America being the richest country and trying to influence politics all around the World. So, this weapon should be effective among the half-educated, pond-frog mentality middle class and Bengal's industrialist intellectual voters. The only thing is that few of them would really believe that with all their problems of economic stagnation and unemployment and headaches in Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, middle-east and elsewhere, whether the Americans would be really holding out a hand to Mamata's a small party politicking in the small, economically insignificant state of West Bengal in India?
Maharaja: So, what does all this mean to the Round 2 polling in 50 constituencies on April 23?
Sanjay: A section of the intellectuals is very unhappy at one of the communist contestants in the districts referring to Mamata as a woman from a infamous locality and using other abusive language. The fact that Buddha-Biman reprimand has gone to the CPM leader using abusive language is not of much consequence now. Some women intellectuals have deplored this as cowardice on the part of communist menfolk. Bengali gentlemen are very patriarchal and love women as equal only in love: they may not like to be ruled by women. Many men are her followers now and accept her leadership. Women see in Mamata the rise of women power. Many women whose families have suffered fro communist men's atrocities in the past see in her a saviour, and they along with many other women would like Mamata to lead West Bengal to rule Indian political scene if for nothing else but to see the Bengali men folk realise the power of women.
Maharaja: Are you predicting a grand slam by Mamata at this Bengal Kurukshetra?
Sanjay: I am no astrologer or psephologist. I am a senior citizen whom no political party really cares. It is the younger generations who will reap what they sow today in the elections. I'm at the fag end of the day and a burden on the society. My fate is not going to be significantly altered whether Mamata or the communists come to power. No party is interested in senior citizens like me. I am just narrating to you what I observe. Be assured that there are many women in Bengal who would like to be ruled by Marxists' men however crude or hypocrite, rather than accepting another woman as leader of the State. So, you and your communist friends have a chance of extended life. The Round 2 Elections recorded close to 85% polling. Whoever wins, the electorate and the Election Commission is sure to get the applaud aplenty.
Maharaja: Sanjay, your narration of the War is too neutral to give me comfort.
Sanjay: Your Excellency, do not lose heart. Battles and Wars are not so simple all the time. In some Wars, there is close finish and in some Wars you do not know the results much after the War is over. Bengal Kurukshetra is still young. On April 27, battles will be fought in 75 more seats. I will come back to you soon with the latest war news soon.
Monday, April 18, 2011
North War Fronts & Black Money: Bengal Elections Kurukshetra Phase Eight
Sanjay: The battles in the Northern fronts just got over Maharaja, amidst black money weapons controversy.
Maharaja: How have my communist friends fared in these battles, Sanjay?
Sanjay: Reportedly, a national-level non-Bengali communist leader beneficiary of Bengali communists' benevolence, has happily remarked that the polling this time was 75% against 85% when the last assembly elections were held and that this lower percentage of polling meant that the people were not enthused by the call for Parivartan or change against the communists. The local State communist leaders were also happy, saying that the higher voter turn out at 80% was good for the communists.
Maharaja: Which percentage of polling is the correct figure 75% or 80%?
Sanjay: It does not matter Sir. The communists are in either case confident that they will win majority of the battles fought on April 19 in the north Bengal districts as against the TMC leader Mamata's forecast of zero win for the communist alliance.
Maharaja: That means that the communists are certain to win majority in the north!
Sanjay: Yes Sir. But the Trinamool is also certain that they will win the majority of battles in the same area because of the same reason of high voter turnout percentage. Until the results come out on May 13, all parties are certain that they will get the majority. The Election Commission has banned release of exit poll results till all the six rounds of polling are over as they thought such exit polls could influence the minds of the voters in the subsequent polls, they have not banned political parties to announce their own impressionistic exit poll results even if that may have some impact on the electorate in the successive rounds of polling.
Maharaja: That appears some convoluted thinking. Political parties can influence the minds of the voters by publicly announcing their own impressionistic exit poll results, but independent third party exit polls are bad influence and hence banned.
Sanjay: You are right, Sir. But such is the God-gifted logical consistency standards in India.
Maharaja: Sanjay, you mentioned something about use of black money atomic weapons.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. The CPM chief minister has publicly questioned the sources of huge sums of money being spent by the opposition Trinamool Congress on election campaigning including travel by helicopter by its leader Mamata. Another communist minister has answered saying that Mamata's party is using black money. Black money can be generated but cannot be used in Elections.
Maharaja: This is unfair elections: Mamata cannot draw huge black money to defeat the communists.
Sanjay: Hold on Maharaja. Don't you think that Black money should go more to the ruling parties in power rather than to opposition parties, unless the black money owners think that the ruling party will lose and hence try to bribe the most likely ruling party in the future. Wealthy businessmen with black money are not going to waste monies to help the losers. If more black money flows to a party, it would mean that party has a greater chance to win. In any case, such businessmen reportedly give a part of their black monies to both the ruling and opposition parties if they think that the elections would be strongly contested by both parties or alliances.
Maharaja: So, black money does not influence election results, likely election results influence the flow of black money.
Sanjay: Absolutely correct. Black money is not really a weapon of mass destruction. Political parties do not pay taxes and their accounts are not subjected to audit by renowned professional auditing firms. But allegations of use of black money is a dangerous weapon the use of which is ethically wrong in countries like India which rank among the top corrupt countries generating huge amounts of black money. You can use black money (otherwise black money loses its money character), but you cannot allege that rival parties are using black money. This highly unethical use of black money-use allegation weapon has this time been used first by the leader of the communists, Chief Minister Buddhadev Bhattacharya.
Maharaja: I now understand what you are saying. Black money is generated by the political system and political parties are supposed to be using such money. One political party therefore cannot ethically criticise other parties for having used black money. Black money by definition cannot enter the books of accounts of individuals and parties.
Sanjay: You are perfect, Maharaja. It is difficult for a political party to prove that it has not used black money because black money cannot be accounted for in the books. So, the Trinamool is going to court with defamation charges against the communist minster who had claimed to have evidence of black money being used by Trinamool Congress. As the minister suspects, the court may give an injunction against black money use allegations during the elections as this could be unfair means of influencing voters' perceptions and minds.
Maharaja: I understand. The issue is not that some party uses black money and another does not. The issue is one of allegations of use of huge amounts of black money: public perception is that all parties are tainted by black money use and more or less tainted black colour is not material.
Sanjay: Right, Sir. The use of this weapon by the communists may prove costly and even boomerang. But Trinamool may not pursue this controversy if the communists come to their senses rather than get jittery with apprehension of losing the elections.
Maharaja: How have my communist friends fared in these battles, Sanjay?
Sanjay: Reportedly, a national-level non-Bengali communist leader beneficiary of Bengali communists' benevolence, has happily remarked that the polling this time was 75% against 85% when the last assembly elections were held and that this lower percentage of polling meant that the people were not enthused by the call for Parivartan or change against the communists. The local State communist leaders were also happy, saying that the higher voter turn out at 80% was good for the communists.
Maharaja: Which percentage of polling is the correct figure 75% or 80%?
Sanjay: It does not matter Sir. The communists are in either case confident that they will win majority of the battles fought on April 19 in the north Bengal districts as against the TMC leader Mamata's forecast of zero win for the communist alliance.
Maharaja: That means that the communists are certain to win majority in the north!
Sanjay: Yes Sir. But the Trinamool is also certain that they will win the majority of battles in the same area because of the same reason of high voter turnout percentage. Until the results come out on May 13, all parties are certain that they will get the majority. The Election Commission has banned release of exit poll results till all the six rounds of polling are over as they thought such exit polls could influence the minds of the voters in the subsequent polls, they have not banned political parties to announce their own impressionistic exit poll results even if that may have some impact on the electorate in the successive rounds of polling.
Maharaja: That appears some convoluted thinking. Political parties can influence the minds of the voters by publicly announcing their own impressionistic exit poll results, but independent third party exit polls are bad influence and hence banned.
Sanjay: You are right, Sir. But such is the God-gifted logical consistency standards in India.
Maharaja: Sanjay, you mentioned something about use of black money atomic weapons.
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. The CPM chief minister has publicly questioned the sources of huge sums of money being spent by the opposition Trinamool Congress on election campaigning including travel by helicopter by its leader Mamata. Another communist minister has answered saying that Mamata's party is using black money. Black money can be generated but cannot be used in Elections.
Maharaja: This is unfair elections: Mamata cannot draw huge black money to defeat the communists.
Sanjay: Hold on Maharaja. Don't you think that Black money should go more to the ruling parties in power rather than to opposition parties, unless the black money owners think that the ruling party will lose and hence try to bribe the most likely ruling party in the future. Wealthy businessmen with black money are not going to waste monies to help the losers. If more black money flows to a party, it would mean that party has a greater chance to win. In any case, such businessmen reportedly give a part of their black monies to both the ruling and opposition parties if they think that the elections would be strongly contested by both parties or alliances.
Maharaja: So, black money does not influence election results, likely election results influence the flow of black money.
Sanjay: Absolutely correct. Black money is not really a weapon of mass destruction. Political parties do not pay taxes and their accounts are not subjected to audit by renowned professional auditing firms. But allegations of use of black money is a dangerous weapon the use of which is ethically wrong in countries like India which rank among the top corrupt countries generating huge amounts of black money. You can use black money (otherwise black money loses its money character), but you cannot allege that rival parties are using black money. This highly unethical use of black money-use allegation weapon has this time been used first by the leader of the communists, Chief Minister Buddhadev Bhattacharya.
Maharaja: I now understand what you are saying. Black money is generated by the political system and political parties are supposed to be using such money. One political party therefore cannot ethically criticise other parties for having used black money. Black money by definition cannot enter the books of accounts of individuals and parties.
Sanjay: You are perfect, Maharaja. It is difficult for a political party to prove that it has not used black money because black money cannot be accounted for in the books. So, the Trinamool is going to court with defamation charges against the communist minster who had claimed to have evidence of black money being used by Trinamool Congress. As the minister suspects, the court may give an injunction against black money use allegations during the elections as this could be unfair means of influencing voters' perceptions and minds.
Maharaja: I understand. The issue is not that some party uses black money and another does not. The issue is one of allegations of use of huge amounts of black money: public perception is that all parties are tainted by black money use and more or less tainted black colour is not material.
Sanjay: Right, Sir. The use of this weapon by the communists may prove costly and even boomerang. But Trinamool may not pursue this controversy if the communists come to their senses rather than get jittery with apprehension of losing the elections.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Nelson's Eyes: Bengal Kurukshetra Phase Seven
Maharaja: What happened to the War, Sanjay. You have been keeping quiet for long!
Sanjay: I am sorry, Your Excellency. My vision has deteriorated because of greater distance from the War front. The War has entered the Sixth phase and a Nelson's Eye view is just now available.
Maharaja: What is this Nelson's Eye vision.
Sanjay: During the Battle of Copenhagen in1801, the British fleet Vice Admiral Horatio Nelson was ordered via flag signal to disengage and retreat due to to the hopelessness of the situation. Realizing that any attempt to retreat through the shallow waters would result in catastrophic loss, Nelson, placed his telescope to his blind eye and remarked that he could see no such signal. He then continued the battle and destroyed numerous enemy ships and was then able to negotiate with the Danes thereby saving many lives by turning his blind eye to the reality.
Maharaja: But what has that Nelson's blind eye got to do with Bengal Kurukshetra War 310 years later?
Sanjay: Star Ananda and Neilsen Company has released the opinion poll on Bengal Election results due one month from now. Its an opinion poll signal: which side sees what reality I do not know. But someone may turn a Nelson's eye to the signal and instead of retreating continue to fight to save face or some one may loose sight of the enemy blinded by the signal.
Maharaja: What does the opinion poll indicate?
Sanjay: Bad news for your favorite, Maharaja, The opinion polls indicate a strong Mamata Wave. If the Trinamool-Congress Alliance is adequately effective, Trinamool is predicted to win 170 seats out of the total 294 and Congress another 45 leaving only 74 seats for the ruling communists and 5 for others. Even if the Trinamool-Congress Alliance does not work effectively, Trinamool is slated to win 154 seats, just 3 short of absolute majority, with the communists trainlig far behind at 93 seats.
Maharaja: That would be a great disaster for the communists and the end of a 34-year old regime!
Sanjay: Do not get disheartened Maharaja. There is still lot of hope
Maharaja: How can you be still hopeful?
Sanjay: First, it predicts the current communist CM, Buddhadev Bhattacharya is still slated to win by a big margin of votes withstanding the Mamata wave and her special efforts to defeat him through her battle lieutenant, Manish Gupta, a former Chief Secretary of the State Government who retired a decade back. This means the communist tides are still strong among the crowd. This may even help some of his current ministers to do a comeback, though the survey predicts 11 of them getting defeated in their ballot collection battles.
Maharaja: That is not enough to be hopeful.
Sanjay: Though the survey sample is large enough, it may still be less than representative of the population of electorate of 294 battlefronts' A small margin of error in vote shares could make considerable difference. The survey predicts about a 10% points in the vote share of the communists to 39%. This percentage is still high and a 5% point error in vote shares can turn the tables.
Maharaja: But does such scientifically done surveys have such high margin or errors?
Sanjay: Generally not. But there are two parts to this survey results. One is the share of votes collected by contestants and then converting them into seats (wins/ losses) from battle fronts covered by the sample to the entire population 294 battle fronts. Since we do not know the details of the sample composition the underlying turnout of voters intending to really cast votes, and statistical sampling errors margin, we cannot really be confident because the media reporting always tend to pick up sensational elements of the results,
Maharaja: But there is still a good chance that the survey results picked up the reality
Sanjay: You are right, Sir. the Survey results may be a true picture of the realty and if nothing changes during the, period between the survey and the actual poll days, communists would be out of office in a month in West Bengal.
Maharaja: Then there is very little hope for those professing to be the disciples of Marx. Even if the opinion poll based predictions are not correct in respect of each constituency battle front, the errors may be compensationg in nature and the overall predictions in favour of Mamata's dominance may come out true. There is no hope for my communists friends
Sanjay: Still there is hope, Sir. Assuming that the Survey, results are a true reflection of reality, there could be change in the reality over the weeks when the polling actually takes place and this may happen as the results of the Suvey itself may cause a change in opinions and voting behavior.
Maharaja: How is that possible?
Sanjay: First, Trinamool may be carried away by the opinion poll forecasts and become complascent resulting in behavior that of party workers that could annoy the electorate. Second, the communists will work hard to make a come back. Third, the voters who enjoyed from CPM's mis-rule without caring to cast their votes may turn up at polling booths to ensure that the communists patronizers come back to power and their investment in nurturing gainful relationship with the communists does not go waste.
Maharaja: Can you explin this a bit?
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. So far the communists were winning election afterv election with considerable margins. Many of those who benefited from the communist rule because of mutually give and take relationship did not have to bother about communists' continuing rule. Now they are alarmed and would run to polling booths to cast their votes in favour of the communists so that the investments they had made in the communists relationship continue to yield gains. The businessman who had invested in cultivating good and beneficial relationship would contribute 3X to the communists poll campaigners against investment of X in Trinamool polling expenditure and organise their friends, relatives and servants to vote for the communists.
Maharaja: Will that make a difference?
Sanjay: Yes, such new favourable factors could turn the tables against the Trinamool. Moreover, the BJP does not like the Congress and the Trinamool to control West Bengal: they are in the opposition at the Centre and so are the communists. The communists are currently a foe of the Congress in power. Since CPM is currently an enemy of the Congress, for BJP it is clear that enemy's (Congress's) enemy (the communists) is a friend of the BJP: so they are fielding candidatews everywhere to take a share of the anti-communist votes and weaken the strength of the Trinamool that severed their alliance with the BJP several years back.
Maharaja: Can all these factors contribute to Communists' retaining their power in West Bengal.
Sanjay: Yes, this could. The Mamata wave is attracting those who want to get a relief from thev arrogance, oppression and discriminatory apathy towards citizens not supporting the communists. But Mamata wave also genarates a counter-wave to protect the known devils instead of allowing unknown devils to capture power.
Maharaja: So, you still give Communists a chance to come back?
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. But it is going to be tough. They have to do a miracle - save ministers like Nirupam Sen and Gautam Deb from defeat in constituences that had been the bastions of the communists. The communists have to get at least 120 battle-wins even to be an effective opposition. It all depends on the Nelson eyes of the different parties.
Maharaja: Turn a blind eye to what the survey says: fight to win with all your might, my communist brethern, do not concede defeat before you have really lost. Remeber Bengalis love to be communists - it is still a craze and a fashion. Trinamool and Congress will trun a blind eye to the survey results that 40% of the electorate still wants Buddhadev to be next Chief Minister, 40% found communists' government's performance good or very good and 39% has decided to vote for the communists. They will fight among themselves to divide the anti-communists votes along with the BJP and willl finally find that they got togetgher just 140 seats together against the communists 154.
Sanjay: Possible. But that would mean a much toughter time for the communists: they would not be able rule and perform at all.
Sanjay: I am sorry, Your Excellency. My vision has deteriorated because of greater distance from the War front. The War has entered the Sixth phase and a Nelson's Eye view is just now available.
Maharaja: What is this Nelson's Eye vision.
Sanjay: During the Battle of Copenhagen in1801, the British fleet Vice Admiral Horatio Nelson was ordered via flag signal to disengage and retreat due to to the hopelessness of the situation. Realizing that any attempt to retreat through the shallow waters would result in catastrophic loss, Nelson, placed his telescope to his blind eye and remarked that he could see no such signal. He then continued the battle and destroyed numerous enemy ships and was then able to negotiate with the Danes thereby saving many lives by turning his blind eye to the reality.
Maharaja: But what has that Nelson's blind eye got to do with Bengal Kurukshetra War 310 years later?
Sanjay: Star Ananda and Neilsen Company has released the opinion poll on Bengal Election results due one month from now. Its an opinion poll signal: which side sees what reality I do not know. But someone may turn a Nelson's eye to the signal and instead of retreating continue to fight to save face or some one may loose sight of the enemy blinded by the signal.
Maharaja: What does the opinion poll indicate?
Sanjay: Bad news for your favorite, Maharaja, The opinion polls indicate a strong Mamata Wave. If the Trinamool-Congress Alliance is adequately effective, Trinamool is predicted to win 170 seats out of the total 294 and Congress another 45 leaving only 74 seats for the ruling communists and 5 for others. Even if the Trinamool-Congress Alliance does not work effectively, Trinamool is slated to win 154 seats, just 3 short of absolute majority, with the communists trainlig far behind at 93 seats.
Maharaja: That would be a great disaster for the communists and the end of a 34-year old regime!
Sanjay: Do not get disheartened Maharaja. There is still lot of hope
Maharaja: How can you be still hopeful?
Sanjay: First, it predicts the current communist CM, Buddhadev Bhattacharya is still slated to win by a big margin of votes withstanding the Mamata wave and her special efforts to defeat him through her battle lieutenant, Manish Gupta, a former Chief Secretary of the State Government who retired a decade back. This means the communist tides are still strong among the crowd. This may even help some of his current ministers to do a comeback, though the survey predicts 11 of them getting defeated in their ballot collection battles.
Maharaja: That is not enough to be hopeful.
Sanjay: Though the survey sample is large enough, it may still be less than representative of the population of electorate of 294 battlefronts' A small margin of error in vote shares could make considerable difference. The survey predicts about a 10% points in the vote share of the communists to 39%. This percentage is still high and a 5% point error in vote shares can turn the tables.
Maharaja: But does such scientifically done surveys have such high margin or errors?
Sanjay: Generally not. But there are two parts to this survey results. One is the share of votes collected by contestants and then converting them into seats (wins/ losses) from battle fronts covered by the sample to the entire population 294 battle fronts. Since we do not know the details of the sample composition the underlying turnout of voters intending to really cast votes, and statistical sampling errors margin, we cannot really be confident because the media reporting always tend to pick up sensational elements of the results,
Maharaja: But there is still a good chance that the survey results picked up the reality
Sanjay: You are right, Sir. the Survey results may be a true picture of the realty and if nothing changes during the, period between the survey and the actual poll days, communists would be out of office in a month in West Bengal.
Maharaja: Then there is very little hope for those professing to be the disciples of Marx. Even if the opinion poll based predictions are not correct in respect of each constituency battle front, the errors may be compensationg in nature and the overall predictions in favour of Mamata's dominance may come out true. There is no hope for my communists friends
Sanjay: Still there is hope, Sir. Assuming that the Survey, results are a true reflection of reality, there could be change in the reality over the weeks when the polling actually takes place and this may happen as the results of the Suvey itself may cause a change in opinions and voting behavior.
Maharaja: How is that possible?
Sanjay: First, Trinamool may be carried away by the opinion poll forecasts and become complascent resulting in behavior that of party workers that could annoy the electorate. Second, the communists will work hard to make a come back. Third, the voters who enjoyed from CPM's mis-rule without caring to cast their votes may turn up at polling booths to ensure that the communists patronizers come back to power and their investment in nurturing gainful relationship with the communists does not go waste.
Maharaja: Can you explin this a bit?
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. So far the communists were winning election afterv election with considerable margins. Many of those who benefited from the communist rule because of mutually give and take relationship did not have to bother about communists' continuing rule. Now they are alarmed and would run to polling booths to cast their votes in favour of the communists so that the investments they had made in the communists relationship continue to yield gains. The businessman who had invested in cultivating good and beneficial relationship would contribute 3X to the communists poll campaigners against investment of X in Trinamool polling expenditure and organise their friends, relatives and servants to vote for the communists.
Maharaja: Will that make a difference?
Sanjay: Yes, such new favourable factors could turn the tables against the Trinamool. Moreover, the BJP does not like the Congress and the Trinamool to control West Bengal: they are in the opposition at the Centre and so are the communists. The communists are currently a foe of the Congress in power. Since CPM is currently an enemy of the Congress, for BJP it is clear that enemy's (Congress's) enemy (the communists) is a friend of the BJP: so they are fielding candidatews everywhere to take a share of the anti-communist votes and weaken the strength of the Trinamool that severed their alliance with the BJP several years back.
Maharaja: Can all these factors contribute to Communists' retaining their power in West Bengal.
Sanjay: Yes, this could. The Mamata wave is attracting those who want to get a relief from thev arrogance, oppression and discriminatory apathy towards citizens not supporting the communists. But Mamata wave also genarates a counter-wave to protect the known devils instead of allowing unknown devils to capture power.
Maharaja: So, you still give Communists a chance to come back?
Sanjay: Yes, Sir. But it is going to be tough. They have to do a miracle - save ministers like Nirupam Sen and Gautam Deb from defeat in constituences that had been the bastions of the communists. The communists have to get at least 120 battle-wins even to be an effective opposition. It all depends on the Nelson eyes of the different parties.
Maharaja: Turn a blind eye to what the survey says: fight to win with all your might, my communist brethern, do not concede defeat before you have really lost. Remeber Bengalis love to be communists - it is still a craze and a fashion. Trinamool and Congress will trun a blind eye to the survey results that 40% of the electorate still wants Buddhadev to be next Chief Minister, 40% found communists' government's performance good or very good and 39% has decided to vote for the communists. They will fight among themselves to divide the anti-communists votes along with the BJP and willl finally find that they got togetgher just 140 seats together against the communists 154.
Sanjay: Possible. But that would mean a much toughter time for the communists: they would not be able rule and perform at all.
Monday, April 4, 2011
Young Communist Proliferation?: Bengal Election Kurukshetra Phase Six
Sanjay: Maharaja, there is some good news for the Communists in the sixth phase of the War: there are survey indications that they are gaining fast to reach the unbeatable stage.
Maharaja: How ?
Sanjay: According Shyamal Chakrborty, a CPM stalwart, the communists’ left front just needs a 3%-4% swing in their favor to get majority in the Legislative Assembly as compared to the share of votes they had collected in the Parliamentary (Lok Shava) elections in 2009. And, there are survey indications that this swing is taking place in their favor. First, Gautam Dev, another CPM Stalwart and a minister in the ruling state government, in some of his several TV interviews, has given the results of his own impressionistic surveys of CPM organized meeting and vote soliciting processions on the roads, According to him, the magnitude of popular participation in the meetings and road shows has been unprecedent and that he has seen young men and women pouring in large numbers in support of the communist front.
Maharaja: But that s what they are supposed to tell. How far are these impressions realistic?
Sanjay: These are very experienced and seasoned CPM politicians and their impressions are likely to be quite an advance indicator of the ground reality. But, equally important, the real survey among 3600 youths recently concluded reveals that the shift is indeed taking place: 53% of the voters in the age group 18-21 are going to vote for the communists while only 51% of these youths were in favor of the communists only eight months ago and there is still three weeks to go before the elections to start. So, Shyamal Chakrabarty’s minimum target voter share to get majority.
Maharaja: That gives the communists a great moral booster in the War. But how far are these surveys reliable?
Sanjay: These are generally common use statistical games for fun and not very rigorously conducted surveys. But the results can have an impact on the voters and party activists mind. For example, this survey says that 53% of the youth now prefers the communists and 1% of the sample has changed from the TMC to Communists over the last eight months. But there could have been a survey that would have shown that the communists had a 46% share and there was a swing against it by 1% over the last 8 months. It depends on the sample size, timing of the sample and also the distribution of the sample over geographical space: the influence of parties vary from localities to localities. But irrespective of all these, the results of this survey quoted by the Bengali News channel 24 Ghanata, a channel fully committed to the communists propaganda over the last two years, is going to enthuse the communist supporters, embolden their leaders to publicise these favorable results in their public meetings to convince more youth to follow switching of others and the Trinamool supporters to announce the survey results as cooked up.
Maharaja:Then. what is the use of these survey findings really? The findings may not be consistent with the Truth.
Sanjay: Utility is only in propaganda and counter propaganda. Everyone knows that these surveys are often sponsored and biased and not rigorously done by independent agencies. But despite this, these findings become a major point of rallying and campaigning for the rival parties. It is like the old style of spreading rumours and using rumours as weapons to influence the minds of the pawns in the battles. These are very entertaining experiments with findings that may or may not capture the Truth. After all there are 33 lakhs new voters in this election compared to the elections to Parliament in 2009 when the communists lost by just 11 lakh votes. If among the new voters, 11 lakhs are committed to the communists before they were included in the electoral rolls, then the communists are already on par and the fight would be on sharing the remaining 22 lakh new entrants in the electorate. So, it makes lot of sense to the communists to adopt this strategy of special campaigning among the new voters to fight the so-called Mamata wave.
Maharaja: So, this means that the communists will win!
Sanjay: That cannot be said with certainty. Much depends on what the unknown actual Truth is and how the fight over spreading rumours of likely Truth progresses. There could be further sponsored surveys to have a guess about the Truth of the minds of he new voters, particularly the young ones. And the communists will try to relate their wins in College student Unions' win with the switch in the new voters in their favor. But it is not so easy to contend with Mamata's fast developing iconic image.
Maharaj: Mamata is developing an iconic image?
Sanjay: Yes, she has shown distinct change in her personality over the last two years. And, this is getting increasing reflected in her TV interviews recently telecast by two channels. One is the Star Ananda channel which tries to show that they are neutral but appear biased in favor of Mamata's Trinamool because of the reluctance of the CPM leaders to face the tricky questions that the anchor raises. Even in a recent interview the CPM stalwart fumbled in the interview: he said something about US hands behind Mamata-led anti-communist campaign in West Bengal electoral battle and looked silly in front of the TV as the anchor probed his allegation against US a bit further. Similarly, when confronted with the land acquisition issue, he said some thing that was in sharp contrast with the CPM Party's latest official records on the subject that is publicly available and he said something that contradicted his chief Buddhadeb Bhattacharyya. The other channels is the Kolkata TV which is very explicitly patronizing the Trinamool Congress in the same way as the 24 Ghanata goes all out to support the communists.
Maharaj: But how has Mamata done in her interviews?
Sanjay: Excellent to say the least. She now projects an image that is no longer one that is merely one of continuous and aggressive agitator against the communist establishment in West Bengal. She now gives an image of a matured politician with success of adminstrative performance as the Railway Minister in the Union government, with ability to envision a future Bengal with clarity and focus, as undisputed leader of vast following of partymen and admirers, an able strategist and a tactician, a dedicated soul always at the spot to rescue the oppressed and the ill-fated, a well informed speaker who has tabs with intelligence information including on the how the CPM is running the state administration and also presents herself with an IQ much higher than the leaders of the CPM leaders have demostrated on the TV. She looks capable of more humour, greater tolerance and sharper reflexes than her rivals. And, she quotes Tagore and Nazrul with ease. She continues to expose the communists' false rumours against her and yet capable of providing folkish entertaining googlies against the communists. In her gesture and body language she appears mor confident than her rivals.
Maharaj: How far this image is going to furthet hurt the electoral prospects of the communists?
Sanjay: This is difficult to predict now. The battles are going to be fought over the next five weeks. Often election wars become also a war of nerves in the final stages. As in the World Cup One-day Cricket tournament that just concluded the Indian team just kept their coolest nerves during the last three matches - in the quarter-final against the reigning champions Australia beating them squarely as if the Indian's were plaing the final game, in the semi-final game against the national rival team of Pakistan beating them hands down as if the Indians were playing the final game one again, and finally in the final game defeated the contestant Sri Lanka with 6 wickets and a 10 balls to spare. The Indians played like Champions not in terms of superority over their rivals in any part of cricketing abilities but reality in terms of having the strongest nerves that a Chamoion demonstares. Mamata still dominates with her nerves and the communists are showing nervousness. The communist now needs a sympathy wave in favor of the weak rival in order to beat Mamata's Trinamool.
Maharaj: What should the CPM led communists do now to promote the 'sympathy for the weak' wave?
Sanjay: They could do various things by changing their emphasis in their election campaigns. For example, instead of false complaints against Mamata about her performance in delivering as the Railway Minister, they should argue that had they had so much resources at command as the Railway Minister has, they would have been able to do better - they did not have a level playing field and Mamata enjoyed an advantage. Similarly, instead of harping on Mamata's responsibility as part of the UPA 2 Congress-led government in the failure to control inflation and corruption, the CPM should say that the Mamata enjoys the advantage of an ally of a weak and incompetent Congress-led government, while because of their anti-nuclear policy they had lost this advantage of exploiting a weak and incompetent government in 2008. Thus they are currently disadvataged and handi-capped. Again, instead of saying that some evil artists, stage actors, retired police officials, physicians, bureacrats, economists, TV channels, and human activists and other dumb citizens along with a part of the musclemen goons now supporting the Trinamool Congress, they should emphasise that many erstwhile supporters amonmg artists, intelligentsia and others have deserted the communists making them weaker. In essence, they can keep all of their campaign points but express them after drenching them with a strong flavor of being afflicted by weaknesses, diasadvantes and loss of level playing field. This can draw a huge sympathy among many voters including the local industrialists who are generally comfortable with the known devil rather than welcoming a stranger like Trinamool to take the reins of the State power.
Maharaj: But this is a difficult for the communist to practice given their ego and arrogance!
Sanjay: True. But the CPM must know that giving up ego and arrigance for just one month is better than not exploiting a well-crafted well-engineered sympathy wave among voters of all types. Today, the Mamata has exposed the incompetence, arrogance, anti-people prorams, bluffing and falsehood, callousness and visionlessness, oppressive and nepotism, anti-merit and anti-Bengali-heritage of the communists of West Bengal. Yet, Bengalis are still addicted to communism and the long 34 years of association with the com:munist rulers. They just need to be soaked in an air of a sympathy wave for a weak and lamenting CPM: then they will go all out to defeat the stronger Trinamool and resurrect the weak and the nervous CPM.
Maharaj: Do you really think this is possible?
Sanjay: Maharaj, the West Bengal electorate seldom like the winners, the arrogant, the egoistic, the merrited, the competent, the stranger without history: they always prfer the weak, the loser in a contest. But for that they have to forget their logical mind that discards all false propoganda against Mamata: a sympathy wave for the weak and apparently losing communists will appeal to the soft hearts of the Bengali electorate to vote with their hearts and not with their logical minds.
Maharaj: Will this happen?
Sanjay: The Sixth phase of the Kurukshetra will soon begin. We will find out if there is any sympathy wave emerging.
Maharaja: How ?
Sanjay: According Shyamal Chakrborty, a CPM stalwart, the communists’ left front just needs a 3%-4% swing in their favor to get majority in the Legislative Assembly as compared to the share of votes they had collected in the Parliamentary (Lok Shava) elections in 2009. And, there are survey indications that this swing is taking place in their favor. First, Gautam Dev, another CPM Stalwart and a minister in the ruling state government, in some of his several TV interviews, has given the results of his own impressionistic surveys of CPM organized meeting and vote soliciting processions on the roads, According to him, the magnitude of popular participation in the meetings and road shows has been unprecedent and that he has seen young men and women pouring in large numbers in support of the communist front.
Maharaja: But that s what they are supposed to tell. How far are these impressions realistic?
Sanjay: These are very experienced and seasoned CPM politicians and their impressions are likely to be quite an advance indicator of the ground reality. But, equally important, the real survey among 3600 youths recently concluded reveals that the shift is indeed taking place: 53% of the voters in the age group 18-21 are going to vote for the communists while only 51% of these youths were in favor of the communists only eight months ago and there is still three weeks to go before the elections to start. So, Shyamal Chakrabarty’s minimum target voter share to get majority.
Maharaja: That gives the communists a great moral booster in the War. But how far are these surveys reliable?
Sanjay: These are generally common use statistical games for fun and not very rigorously conducted surveys. But the results can have an impact on the voters and party activists mind. For example, this survey says that 53% of the youth now prefers the communists and 1% of the sample has changed from the TMC to Communists over the last eight months. But there could have been a survey that would have shown that the communists had a 46% share and there was a swing against it by 1% over the last 8 months. It depends on the sample size, timing of the sample and also the distribution of the sample over geographical space: the influence of parties vary from localities to localities. But irrespective of all these, the results of this survey quoted by the Bengali News channel 24 Ghanata, a channel fully committed to the communists propaganda over the last two years, is going to enthuse the communist supporters, embolden their leaders to publicise these favorable results in their public meetings to convince more youth to follow switching of others and the Trinamool supporters to announce the survey results as cooked up.
Maharaja:Then. what is the use of these survey findings really? The findings may not be consistent with the Truth.
Sanjay: Utility is only in propaganda and counter propaganda. Everyone knows that these surveys are often sponsored and biased and not rigorously done by independent agencies. But despite this, these findings become a major point of rallying and campaigning for the rival parties. It is like the old style of spreading rumours and using rumours as weapons to influence the minds of the pawns in the battles. These are very entertaining experiments with findings that may or may not capture the Truth. After all there are 33 lakhs new voters in this election compared to the elections to Parliament in 2009 when the communists lost by just 11 lakh votes. If among the new voters, 11 lakhs are committed to the communists before they were included in the electoral rolls, then the communists are already on par and the fight would be on sharing the remaining 22 lakh new entrants in the electorate. So, it makes lot of sense to the communists to adopt this strategy of special campaigning among the new voters to fight the so-called Mamata wave.
Maharaja: So, this means that the communists will win!
Sanjay: That cannot be said with certainty. Much depends on what the unknown actual Truth is and how the fight over spreading rumours of likely Truth progresses. There could be further sponsored surveys to have a guess about the Truth of the minds of he new voters, particularly the young ones. And the communists will try to relate their wins in College student Unions' win with the switch in the new voters in their favor. But it is not so easy to contend with Mamata's fast developing iconic image.
Maharaj: Mamata is developing an iconic image?
Sanjay: Yes, she has shown distinct change in her personality over the last two years. And, this is getting increasing reflected in her TV interviews recently telecast by two channels. One is the Star Ananda channel which tries to show that they are neutral but appear biased in favor of Mamata's Trinamool because of the reluctance of the CPM leaders to face the tricky questions that the anchor raises. Even in a recent interview the CPM stalwart fumbled in the interview: he said something about US hands behind Mamata-led anti-communist campaign in West Bengal electoral battle and looked silly in front of the TV as the anchor probed his allegation against US a bit further. Similarly, when confronted with the land acquisition issue, he said some thing that was in sharp contrast with the CPM Party's latest official records on the subject that is publicly available and he said something that contradicted his chief Buddhadeb Bhattacharyya. The other channels is the Kolkata TV which is very explicitly patronizing the Trinamool Congress in the same way as the 24 Ghanata goes all out to support the communists.
Maharaj: But how has Mamata done in her interviews?
Sanjay: Excellent to say the least. She now projects an image that is no longer one that is merely one of continuous and aggressive agitator against the communist establishment in West Bengal. She now gives an image of a matured politician with success of adminstrative performance as the Railway Minister in the Union government, with ability to envision a future Bengal with clarity and focus, as undisputed leader of vast following of partymen and admirers, an able strategist and a tactician, a dedicated soul always at the spot to rescue the oppressed and the ill-fated, a well informed speaker who has tabs with intelligence information including on the how the CPM is running the state administration and also presents herself with an IQ much higher than the leaders of the CPM leaders have demostrated on the TV. She looks capable of more humour, greater tolerance and sharper reflexes than her rivals. And, she quotes Tagore and Nazrul with ease. She continues to expose the communists' false rumours against her and yet capable of providing folkish entertaining googlies against the communists. In her gesture and body language she appears mor confident than her rivals.
Maharaj: How far this image is going to furthet hurt the electoral prospects of the communists?
Sanjay: This is difficult to predict now. The battles are going to be fought over the next five weeks. Often election wars become also a war of nerves in the final stages. As in the World Cup One-day Cricket tournament that just concluded the Indian team just kept their coolest nerves during the last three matches - in the quarter-final against the reigning champions Australia beating them squarely as if the Indian's were plaing the final game, in the semi-final game against the national rival team of Pakistan beating them hands down as if the Indians were playing the final game one again, and finally in the final game defeated the contestant Sri Lanka with 6 wickets and a 10 balls to spare. The Indians played like Champions not in terms of superority over their rivals in any part of cricketing abilities but reality in terms of having the strongest nerves that a Chamoion demonstares. Mamata still dominates with her nerves and the communists are showing nervousness. The communist now needs a sympathy wave in favor of the weak rival in order to beat Mamata's Trinamool.
Maharaj: What should the CPM led communists do now to promote the 'sympathy for the weak' wave?
Sanjay: They could do various things by changing their emphasis in their election campaigns. For example, instead of false complaints against Mamata about her performance in delivering as the Railway Minister, they should argue that had they had so much resources at command as the Railway Minister has, they would have been able to do better - they did not have a level playing field and Mamata enjoyed an advantage. Similarly, instead of harping on Mamata's responsibility as part of the UPA 2 Congress-led government in the failure to control inflation and corruption, the CPM should say that the Mamata enjoys the advantage of an ally of a weak and incompetent Congress-led government, while because of their anti-nuclear policy they had lost this advantage of exploiting a weak and incompetent government in 2008. Thus they are currently disadvataged and handi-capped. Again, instead of saying that some evil artists, stage actors, retired police officials, physicians, bureacrats, economists, TV channels, and human activists and other dumb citizens along with a part of the musclemen goons now supporting the Trinamool Congress, they should emphasise that many erstwhile supporters amonmg artists, intelligentsia and others have deserted the communists making them weaker. In essence, they can keep all of their campaign points but express them after drenching them with a strong flavor of being afflicted by weaknesses, diasadvantes and loss of level playing field. This can draw a huge sympathy among many voters including the local industrialists who are generally comfortable with the known devil rather than welcoming a stranger like Trinamool to take the reins of the State power.
Maharaj: But this is a difficult for the communist to practice given their ego and arrogance!
Sanjay: True. But the CPM must know that giving up ego and arrigance for just one month is better than not exploiting a well-crafted well-engineered sympathy wave among voters of all types. Today, the Mamata has exposed the incompetence, arrogance, anti-people prorams, bluffing and falsehood, callousness and visionlessness, oppressive and nepotism, anti-merit and anti-Bengali-heritage of the communists of West Bengal. Yet, Bengalis are still addicted to communism and the long 34 years of association with the com:munist rulers. They just need to be soaked in an air of a sympathy wave for a weak and lamenting CPM: then they will go all out to defeat the stronger Trinamool and resurrect the weak and the nervous CPM.
Maharaj: Do you really think this is possible?
Sanjay: Maharaj, the West Bengal electorate seldom like the winners, the arrogant, the egoistic, the merrited, the competent, the stranger without history: they always prfer the weak, the loser in a contest. But for that they have to forget their logical mind that discards all false propoganda against Mamata: a sympathy wave for the weak and apparently losing communists will appeal to the soft hearts of the Bengali electorate to vote with their hearts and not with their logical minds.
Maharaj: Will this happen?
Sanjay: The Sixth phase of the Kurukshetra will soon begin. We will find out if there is any sympathy wave emerging.
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